金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20250925 当前（2025 年 9 月 25 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位：非银行金融 （ 11.7%） 、 通 信 （ 10.4% ）、综合（ 7.2%） 、 电 力 设 备 及 新 能 源 （6.6%）、有色金属（6.4%）、农林牧渔（6.3%）、电子（5.5%）、煤 炭（5.4%）、基础化工（4.9%）、钢铁（4.7%）、医药（4.7%）、国防 军工（3.7%）、综合金融（3.6%）、家电（3.0%）、汽车（2.8%）、机 械（2.7%）、纺织服装（2.6%）、交通运输（2.6%）、银行（2.5%）、 传媒（1.5%）、计算机（1.4%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》20230518 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（九）：长期反 转-中期动量-低拥挤 ...

中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛表示，人民币2025年逆势上涨，源于多方面原因。外部方面，美国例外论破产， 美元信誉受损，特朗普交易转为衰退预期，前9个月美元指数跌9.5%，非美货币受益；特朗普关税政策被裁定违 法，提交最高法院。内部层面，中国经济改善，房地产与地方债务问题缓解，科创亮点推动资产重估，政策对外 部冲击有预判有预案，IMF上调中国经济增长预期。同时，中美经贸磋商缓和，削减关税并推进新协议，支撑汇 率。美联储政策上，2023年9月开启降息，2025年9月恢复降25个基点，现转向关注充分就业，面临政策两难与独 立性被特朗普侵蚀的问题，中长期或致美元进一步走弱。展望人民币汇率，当前人民币汇率未明显偏离均衡汇 率，市场无显著升值压力。未来利好与不确定性因素并存，利好包括美联储降息、美元信用受损、中美双方达成 共识、中国经济持续向好等，不确定性有美联储降息的节奏和力度、磋商变数、经济韧性未知、美国高法的判断 结果等，市场需强化风险中性，不宜单边押注。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛 中国银行研究院副院长鄂志寰分析，从长周期视角来看，人民币汇率受美联储政策影响经历了不同阶段：美联储 降息，人民币汇率升值。2024 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports suggests that the current bull market in A-shares is expected to evolve into a "mixed bull market," characterized by a "structural bull" phase followed by a "comprehensive bull" phase, similar to the market dynamics observed in 2013-2014 and 2016-2017 [1] - The report highlights that each bull market is driven by significant incremental capital, which allows the market to start independently of fundamental and liquidity constraints. The previous bull markets relied on different main channels for capital inflow, with the upcoming bull market expected to see insurance funds play a major role starting in the first half of 2025 [1] - Current data indicates that there has not been a significant increase in financing balances, insurance, actively managed equity fund issuance, or passive ETF issuance since August, suggesting that the main capital channels have not yet emerged [1] Group 2 - The current structural bull market in technology is driven by positive feedback from market funds towards the structural prosperity of AI hardware and strong industrial trends. The expectation is that the A-share market will transition into a "comprehensive bull" phase [2] - The report draws parallels to the market rotation structure observed during the macroeconomic U-shaped recovery from 2012 to 2017, indicating a potential shift from a technology-focused bull market to a cyclical blue-chip bull market, moving from small-cap to large-cap stocks [2] - As macroeconomic improvement signals emerge, the report anticipates further expansion into sectors characterized by "comprehensive bull" attributes, such as anti-involution and consumption [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the decline in the stock price of Dongwei Technology, which fell by 5.01% to 38.50 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 263 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.24%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 11.488 billion CNY [1] - Dongwei Technology, established on December 29, 2005, and listed on June 15, 2021, is primarily engaged in the research, design, production, and sales of high-end precision electroplating equipment and related devices, with 99.39% of its revenue coming from equipment and other main businesses [1] - The company is located in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, and its main products include vertical continuous electroplating equipment for PCB electroplating, horizontal surface treatment equipment, and gantry electroplating equipment for general hardware [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten heavy stocks of funds, a fund under Bank of China Securities holds a significant position in Dongwei Technology, specifically the Bank of China Securities New Energy Mixed A Fund (005571), which reduced its holdings by 3,128 shares in the second quarter, now holding 35,200 shares, accounting for 3.13% of the fund's net value [2] - The Bank of China Securities New Energy Mixed A Fund has a total scale of 27.0731 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 58.84%, ranking 748 out of 8,171 in its category, with a one-year return of 98.5%, ranking 597 out of 8,004 [2]

格隆汇9月26日｜中银证券研报指出，迈瑞医疗上半年实现营业收入167.43亿元，同比减少18.45%；归 母净利润为50.69亿元，同比减少32.96%；虽然公司上半年业绩依旧承压，但公司三季有望达到经营拐 点，且看好公司国际化业务的趋势，维持"买入"评级。国内市场虽然去年12月份以来医疗设备的月度招 标数据持续改善，但在当前的竞争环境下，从公开招标到收入确认的周期被显著拉长，因此国内2025年 上半年的收入实际反映的是去年招标下滑的时间段，叠加去年上半年公司收入基数偏高的影响，使得 2025年上半年国内业务同比下滑。但随着2025年上半年医疗设备招标活动迎来复苏，公司预计第三季度 整体营业收入将实现同比正增长，同时延续营业收入金额逐季度环比改善的趋势，叠加国际市场产品销 售的加速，期待公司三季度的业绩表现。公司国际市场收入占比进一步提高，国际体外诊断业务销售有 望提速；"设备+IT+AI"生态布局，看好公司未来发展机遇。 ...

数据显示，中银证券旗下1只基金重仓太辰光。中银证券优选行业龙头混合A（009640）二季度持有股 数3万股，占基金净值比例为5.01%，位居第四大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约17.1万元。 中银证券优选行业龙头混合A（009640）成立日期2020年9月1日，最新规模4050.61万。今年以来收益 62.17%，同类排名570/8171；近一年收益84.87%，同类排名975/8004；成立以来亏损30.95%。 9月26日，太辰光跌5%，截至发稿，报108.28元/股，成交12.09亿元，换手率5.69%，总市值245.93亿 元。 资料显示，深圳太辰光通信股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市坪山区坑梓街道秀新社区锦绣中路8号太辰 光通信科技园-101(1、2、3号楼)(一照多址企业)，成立日期2000年12月12日，上市日期2016年12月6 日，公司主营业务涉及光器件的研发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：光器件产品98.02%，其他 1.81%，光传感产品0.17%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 中银证券优选行业龙头混合A（009640）基金经理为宋方云。 截至发稿，宋方云累计任职时间2年278天，现任基金资产 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and financial metrics of Xibu Superconductor Material Technology Co., Ltd., which saw a stock price increase of 5.13% to 62.45 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 40.572 billion CNY [1] - The company specializes in high-end titanium alloy materials, superconducting products, and high-performance high-temperature alloy materials, with revenue contributions of 57.59% from high-end titanium alloys, 29.34% from superconducting products, 9.01% from high-performance high-temperature alloys, and 4.07% from other sources [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, a fund under Bank of China Securities has a significant position in Xibu Superconductor, with the Bank of China CSI 500 ETF Linked A (008258) holding 200 shares, representing 0.01% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 27.01% and a one-year return of 52.08%, ranking 2117 out of 4220 and 1779 out of 3824 in its category, respectively [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of the Bank of China CSI 500 ETF Linked A are Liu Xianzheng and Zhang Yimin, with Liu having a tenure of 7 years and Zhang 5 years [3] - Liu's best fund return during his tenure is 118.04%, while Zhang's best return is 20.36% [3]

9月26日，益方生物跌5.09%，截至发稿，报31.70元/股，成交1.35亿元，换手率1.00%，总市值183.33亿 元。 资料显示，益方生物科技(上海)股份有限公司位于中国(上海)自由贸易试验区李冰路67弄4号210室，成 立日期2013年1月11日，上市日期2022年7月25日，公司主营业务涉及创新药物的研发、生产和销售。主 营业务收入构成为：技术授权和技术合作收入100.00%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，中银证券旗下1只基金重仓益方生物。中银证券健康产业混合（002938）二季度减持26万 股，持有股数45万股，占基金净值比例为9.35%，位居第一大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约76.5 万元。 中银证券健康产业混合（002938）成立日期2016年9月7日，最新规模1.58亿。今年以来收益58.21%，同 类排名773/8171；近一年收益71.21%，同类排名1527/8004；成立以来收益165.75%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Weichai Heavy Machinery has seen a significant stock price increase of 5.05%, reaching 34.96 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.359 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 17.59%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 16.216 billion CNY [1] - Weichai Heavy Machinery, established on June 28, 1993, and listed on April 2, 1998, is located in Weifang Binhai Economic and Technological Development Zone, Shandong Province. The company specializes in the development, manufacturing, and sales of marine power and power generation equipment, including engines ranging from 30 to 12,000 horsepower and integrated power systems [1] - The main business revenue composition of Weichai Heavy Machinery includes: generator sets 51.61%, engines 33.89%, aftermarket and others 7.28%, and parts and processing services 7.23% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, data shows that a fund under Bank of China Securities has a significant position in Weichai Heavy Machinery. The fund, Bank of China Securities New Energy Mixed A (005571), held 35,200 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 3.01% of the fund's net value, ranking as the ninth largest holding [2] - The Bank of China Securities New Energy Mixed A fund was established on August 2, 2018, with a latest scale of 27.0731 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 59.17%, ranking 679 out of 8,173 in its category; the one-year return is 99.86%, ranking 547 out of 8,003; and since inception, the return is 101.94% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Bank of China Securities New Energy Mixed A is Zhang Lixin, who has been in the position for 2 years and 277 days. The total asset size of the fund is 12.2 million CNY, with the best fund return during the tenure being 15.7% and the worst being 4.63% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that EVE Energy Co., Ltd. has seen a significant increase in its stock price, rising 5.23% on September 25, reaching 80.33 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 164.33 billion yuan [1] - EVE Energy's stock has experienced a continuous increase for four consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 8.31% during this period [1] - The company's main business includes the research, production, and sales of consumer batteries (including lithium primary batteries, small lithium-ion batteries, and ternary cylindrical batteries) and power batteries (including electric vehicle batteries and energy storage batteries) [1] Group 2 - According to data, a fund under Bank of China Securities holds a significant position in EVE Energy, with the Bank of China Securities ChiNext ETF (159821) being the tenth largest holding [2] - The fund reduced its holdings by 2,200 shares in the second quarter, maintaining 8,265 shares, which accounts for 1.66% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 49.39% and a one-year return of 98.01%, ranking 680 out of 4,220 and 551 out of 3,820 in its category, respectively [2]