近5日资金流向一览见下表： 证券之星消息，截至2026年2月5日收盘，中银证券(601696)报收于13.75元，上涨0.15%，换手率 1.44%，成交量39.92万手，成交额5.49亿元。 中银证券2025年三季报显示，前三季度公司主营收入24.38亿元，同比上升26.95%；归母净利润8.54亿 元，同比上升29.28%；扣非净利润8.18亿元，同比上升35.05%；其中2025年第三季度，公司单季度主营 收入9.33亿元，同比上升38.33%；单季度归母净利润2.89亿元，同比上升22.37%；单季度扣非净利润 2.89亿元，同比上升57.23%；负债率79.44%，投资收益2.76亿元。中银证券（601696）主营业务：公司 根据业务类型将公司业务划分成投资银行业务、证券经纪业务、资产管理业务、证券自营业务、私募股 权投资业务、期货业务和其他业务。其中,公司通过全资子公司中银国际期货从事期货业务,通过全资子 公司中银国际投资从事私募投资基金业务,通过全资子公司中银资本投控从事另类投资业务(中银资本投 控尚未开展业务,中银国际投资的自有资金投资存量项目后续将逐步划转至中银资本投控)。 2月5日的资金流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend for the RMB exchange rate in February 2026 is expected to be characterized by "two-way fluctuations with a slowing appreciation rate," maintaining a narrow range of volatility [2]. Group 1: Predicted Trends - The consensus among institutions is that the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate will fluctuate between 6.95 and 7.05, while the offshore rate will range from 6.93 to 7.08 [2]. - Factors such as seasonal dollar rebounds and reduced domestic settlement demand around the Spring Festival will limit the pace of RMB appreciation [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The dollar's performance and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are key external variables affecting the RMB exchange rate [3]. - Predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cuts vary, with Goldman Sachs suggesting potential cuts in Q1 and a small cut in Q3, while Mysteel anticipates three cuts throughout the year [3]. - The internal economic fundamentals show a mix of support and drag, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 providing hard support for the RMB [4]. - The seasonal nature of the Spring Festival will reduce corporate settlement demand, impacting short-term support for the RMB [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Different institutions share a consensus on "two-way fluctuations," but there are slight differences in their predictions regarding the appreciation extent and volatility range [7]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects a slight appreciation, while Minsheng Bank predicts a significant slowdown in appreciation [7]. - Zhongyin Securities warns of the risks of unilateral bets, suggesting potential for slight corrections if the dollar rebounds unexpectedly [7]. Group 4: Practical Decision-Making Guidelines - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid unilateral bets and focus on risk hedging, prioritizing investments in core RMB assets such as new energy and biotechnology [9]. - Companies engaged in import and export should adopt a "risk-neutral" approach, utilizing multi-currency settlements to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [10].

Core Insights - The report introduces a macro factor assetization framework for timing strategies in government bond futures, demonstrating robust return characteristics and strong risk resistance through backtesting [1][2]. Group 1: Macro Real-Time (PIT) Indicator Library Construction - The macro factor assetization strategy utilizes real-time macro data, contrasting with traditional models that lag by 1-2 months, by employing a precise macroeconomic calendar to obtain macro data disclosure dates and times [4][19]. - The PIT macro indicators are designed across four dimensions: economic growth, inflation, monetary credit policy, and central bank open market operations, creating a macro factor library [4][19]. Group 2: Strategy Construction and Backtesting - The strategy framework consists of three main steps: macro factor construction, macro trading logic net value realization, and dynamic factor selection and combination [4][29]. - The model achieved a post-fee Sharpe ratio of approximately 1.3 and a Calmar ratio of about 1.1, indicating strong performance despite challenges in capturing significant excess returns during the bull market from 2021 to 2024 [4][29]. - The model's performance is relatively insensitive to the lag parameter n, with optimal settings found between 10 to 30 minutes, leading to a standardized approach of a 10-minute lag for all signals [4][29]. Group 3: Factor Dynamic Selection and Combination - The macro factors are categorized into four types: economic growth, inflation, monetary credit, and open market operations, with each factor's performance analyzed for effective timing signals [4][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of dynamic factor selection to enhance model performance, utilizing momentum factor selection methods to optimize the factor pool [4][29][56]. - The empirical results indicate that the combined signals from multiple factors significantly improve timing effectiveness compared to single-factor performance [4][29][74].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the issuance of the "2026 Third Phase China Railway Construction Bonds" with a total scale of 10 billion yuan, divided into two types: 5 billion yuan for 10-year bonds and 5 billion yuan for 30-year bonds [4][39]. - The bonds will be issued through a single-rate (Dutch-style) bidding process, with the bidding date set for February 4, 2026, and results to be announced on February 5, 2026 [17][40]. - The final coupon rates for the bonds will be determined based on market bidding results, with the 10-year bond's bidding rate range set between 1.33% and 2.33%, and the 30-year bond's range between 1.73% and 2.73% [39][40]. Group 2 - The lead underwriter for this bond issuance is Guotai Junan Securities, with a syndicate including several other securities firms [5][6]. - The bonds will be registered and settled through the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation and the Central Government Securities Depository Trust and Clearing Co., Ltd [8][41]. - Investors are encouraged to consult legal and professional advisors regarding the legality and compliance of their bond purchases [27]. Group 3 - The bonds are government-supported bonds approved by the State Council, with specific tax benefits for both corporate and individual investors [38]. - The issuance is part of a broader plan where the total registered issuance of railway construction bonds is set at 300 billion yuan, valid for 24 months [38]. - The bonds will be publicly issued to institutional investors, with trading available post-listing for both institutional and individual investors [41].

Group 1 - The issuer of the bond is China National Railway Group Co., Ltd., and the total issuance scale is 10 billion yuan for the "2026 Third Phase China Railway Construction Bond" [4][29] - The bond is divided into two types: a 10-year bond with a scale of 5 billion yuan and a 30-year bond with a scale of 5 billion yuan, totaling 10 billion yuan [21][29] - The bonds will be issued at a fixed interest rate, with the 10-year bond's interest rate being the Shibor benchmark rate plus a basic spread ranging from -0.3% to 0.7%, and the 30-year bond's interest rate ranging from 0.1% to 1.1% [21][29] Group 2 - The main underwriter for this bond issuance is Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd., which is responsible for managing the underwriting team and coordinating the issuance process [5][31] - The bonds will be publicly issued to institutional investors through a bidding system on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [22][31] - The bonds will be registered and held by the Shenzhen branch of the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation and the Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. [24][30] Group 3 - The bonds will have a maturity date of February 5, 2036, for the 10-year bond and February 5, 2056, for the 30-year bond [27] - The bonds will be issued at par value of 100 yuan, with a minimum subscription unit of 10 million yuan [24][29] - The bonds will be guaranteed by the Railway Construction Fund, providing an irrevocable joint liability guarantee [29]

中银证券慧泽稳健3个月持有期混合发起(FOF)A/C成立于2022年07月07日，截至 2026年01月28日， 其今年来收益率为0.74%、0.72%，成立来收益率为-5.83%、-6.48%，累计净值为0.9417元、0.9352元。 | 基金名称 | 中银证券慧泽平衡3个月持有期混合型发起式基金中基金(FOF) | | --- | --- | | 基金简称 | 中银证券慧泽平衡3个月持有混合发起(FOF | | 基金主代码 | 016217 | | 基金管理人名称 | 中银压际正券股份有限公司 | | 公告依据 | 《公开募集证券投资基金信息披露管理办法》 | | 基金经理变更类型 | 增聘基金经理 | | 新任基金经理姓名 | 贾卒,白导曦 | | 共同管理本基金的其他基金经理姓名 | 威海宁、陈乐天 | | i | | | --- | --- | | 基金名称 | 中银证券慧泽稳健3个月持有期混合型发起式基金中基金(FOF) | | 基金简称 | 中银证券慧泽稳健3个月持有期混合发起(FOF) | | 基金主代码 | 016136 | | 基金管理人名称 | 中银国际证券股份有限公司 | | 公告依 ...

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2026 年 2 月 1 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 权益高点震荡，贵金属外盘现领跌行情 股票市场概览 ◼ 本周 A 股市场整体下跌，港股市场整体上涨，美股市场走势分化，其 他海外权益市场走势分化。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：相对拥挤度及超额净值近期处于历史较高位置，需注 意成长风格的配置风险。 小盘vs大盘：相对拥挤度及超额净值均未处于历史高位，小盘风格当 前具有较高的配置性价比。 微盘股 vs 中证 800：相对拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史高位，需注 意微盘股风格的配置风险。 A 股行情跟踪 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 利率市场 ◼ 本周中国国债利率下跌，美国国债利率上涨，中美利差处于历史高位。 证券分析师: 郭策 (8610) 66229081 ce.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080002 汇率市场 ◼ 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值，离岸人民币较美元贬值。 商品市场 ◼ 本周中国商品市场整体上涨，美国商品市场整体下跌。 风险提示 ◼ 量化模型因市场剧烈变动失效。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US interest rate cut cycle is not over. After the current risk factors are released, the US Treasury market may return to the downward trend of yields [2][4][15] - China's bond market also needs to pay attention to the performance of technology stocks. Whether the performance growth of technology stocks can support their valuations will have an important impact on the bond market through factors such as stock - bond linkage and the flow of household savings [4][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Some important risk factors in the US Treasury market in the first quarter are gradually becoming clear. The next Fed chair nominee, tariff case alternatives, the Cook case, geopolitical factors, and technology stock performance are the main observation points [4][12][13] - The performance of technology stocks in the US may continue to drive economic growth, but has limited impact on overall employment, which in turn affects inflation through the salary channel [4][15] - In the week of January 30th, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.89% week - on - week, the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased by 0.74% week - on - week, and the edible agricultural products price index increased by 0.90% week - on - week in the week of January 23rd [4][19] - In the week of January 30th, the domestic cement price index decreased by 1.03% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index decreased by 0.09% week - on - week on average, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 0.26% week - on - week, the rebar inventory index increased by 7.73% week - on - week, the rebar price index decreased by 0.18% week - on - week, and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills increased by 0.46% week - on - week. The producer price index decreased by 0.40% week - on - week in the week of January 23rd [4][19] - In the week of January 30th, the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased by 5.84% and 5.38% week - on - week respectively. The average price of LME copper spot increased by 2.90% week - on - week, the average price of aluminum spot increased by 2.32% week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio decreased by 4.21% week - on - week [4][19] High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The document shows multiple charts comparing high - frequency data with important macroeconomic indicators, such as the year - on - year change of the RJ/CRB price index and the year - on - year change of export volume, the year - on - year change of the producer price index and the year - on - year change of PPI for industrial products [25][27][30] Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe and Japan - The document shows charts of the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, the number of initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate in the US, the same - store sales growth rate and PCE year - on - year in the US, and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the central banks of Japan and the Eurozone in the derivatives market [90][94][96] Seasonal Trend of High - frequency Data - The document shows the seasonal trends (in terms of month - on - month increase) of various high - frequency data, including the average daily output of crude steel (decadal), producer price index, steel price index of rebar, and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills [102][106][110] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen - The document shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen [146][148]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Zhongyin Securities has issued a "buy" rating for Core International (300662.SZ) based on strong profit growth expectations and operational efficiency improvements driven by technology and specialization [1] - Performance forecast indicates significant profit growth potential for the company [1] - The company's business is expected to benefit from continuous operational efficiency improvements [1] Group 2 - The nuclear power construction boom has led to high demand for equipment manufacturers, with orders already scheduled until 2028 [1] - Employees are working in three shifts, and production lines are operating 24 hours a day to meet the demand [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Musk plans to build 100GW of photovoltaic capacity, which may extend upstream to silicon materials and wafers, benefiting core equipment in silicon materials, wafers, batteries, and modules, with long-term market expansion potential for material companies [1][4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of China has reiterated the "anti-involution" theme in the photovoltaic industry, indicating a high probability of self-imposed production limits, which will optimize the battery and module landscape [1][4] - The meeting held by MIIT on January 28, 2026, emphasized the need for market-based and legal measures to promote healthy competition and rational development in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to prevent monopolistic risks and ensure price rationalization across the industry chain [1][3] Group 2 - Musk's announcement of expanding photovoltaic capacity is not limited to batteries and modules but may also include upstream silicon materials and wafers, which could lead to increased orders for domestic photovoltaic equipment manufacturers [2][4] - China's space photovoltaic industry is accelerating its commercialization, with various technological routes such as gallium arsenide, crystalline silicon, and perovskite being explored, indicating a diverse development landscape [3] - The report recommends several companies, including Foster, JinkoSolar, and LONGi Green Energy, as potential beneficiaries of the expanding photovoltaic market, while also suggesting to pay attention to other companies like Aotaiwei and Shuangliang Energy [4]