新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：王翔 专题：2025资产管理高峰论坛 11月26日，在经济观察报主办的"2025资产管理高峰论坛"上，中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛在主题演 讲中表示，中国长期资本市场前景看好但要关注警惕短期波动风险，在这个过程中，中国市场的机遇都 来自于经济的转型升级，转变就是改变，改变就是不确定，不确定就是风险，更需要我们倡导价值投 资，长期投资，不要想赚快钱。 ...

11月26日，张江高科涨5.41%，截至发稿，报42.44元/股，成交18.42亿元，换手率2.91%，总市值657.26 亿元。 资料显示，上海张江高科技园区开发股份有限公司位于上海市松涛路560号17层，成立日期1996年4月18 日，上市日期1996年4月22日，公司主营业务涉及受让地块内的土地开发与土地使用权经营,商业化高科 技项目投资与经营等。主营业务收入构成为：房产分部100.00%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，中银证券旗下1只基金重仓张江高科。中银证券中证500ETF联接A（008258）三季度持有股 数300股，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约654元。 张艺敏累计任职时间5年74天，现任基金资产总规模7.94亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报18.26%， 任职期 间最差基金回报-40.75%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 中银证券中证500ETF联接A（008258）成立日期2020年5月14日，最新规模 ...

11月26日，泽璟制药涨5.47%，截至发稿，报113.52元/股，成交1.40亿元，换手率0.47%，总市值300.50 亿元。 资料显示，苏州泽璟生物制药股份有限公司位于江苏省昆山市玉山镇晨丰路262号，成立日期2009年3月 18日，上市日期2020年1月23日，公司主营业务涉及化学新药及生物新药的研发、生产及销售。主营业 务收入构成为：药品99.97%，医药中间体及原辅料0.02%，资产租赁0.00%。 截至发稿，李明蔚累计任职时间2年279天，现任基金资产总规模1.59亿元，任职期间最佳基金回 报-8.88%， 任职期间最差基金回报-8.88%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，中银证券旗下1只基金重仓泽璟制药。中银证券健康产业混合（002938）三季度减持4000 股，持有股数12.8万股，占基金净值比例为9.08%，位居第三大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约 75.39万元。 中银证券健康产业混合（002938） ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyin Securities reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating a robust operational strategy and market position [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 2.438 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.95% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 854 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.28% [2] Strategic Focus - The company aims to leverage its shareholder background to integrate internal and external resources effectively [2] - It plans to enhance its competitive position in the industry by focusing on the advantages of "investment banking + investment + commercial banking" [2] - The company is committed to high-quality development and continuous improvement of its overall strength and industry standing [2]

Market Overview - On November 24, the securities sector rose by 0.22% compared to the previous trading day, with Guolian Minsheng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Top Gainers - Guolian Minsheng (601456) closed at 10.40, up 2.87% with a trading volume of 297,600 shares and a turnover of 304 million yuan [1] - Guosheng Securities (002670) closed at 17.86, up 2.76% with a trading volume of 444,300 shares and a turnover of 788 million yuan [1] - Industrial Securities (601377) closed at 6.69, up 2.14% with a trading volume of 941,000 shares and a turnover of 625 million yuan [1] Top Losers - Shouchao Securities (601136) closed at 20.20, down 2.27% with a trading volume of 375,700 shares and a turnover of 757 million yuan [2] - Changjiang Securities (000783) closed at 7.92, down 1.12% with a trading volume of 849,100 shares and a turnover of 679 million yuan [2] - Sihai Securities (600369) closed at 4.40, down 0.90% with a trading volume of 642,200 shares and a turnover of 284 million yuan [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The securities sector experienced a net outflow of 1.283 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 914 million yuan [2] - Among individual stocks, Guosheng Securities had a net inflow of 48.03 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 22.88 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Dongfang Securities recorded a net inflow of 31.53 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 10.96 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Market Overview - The recent global market downturn, driven by heightened risk aversion, has led to a significant adjustment in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points [2][3] - Key sectors such as new energy, photovoltaic, and power equipment have experienced notable pullbacks, while banking, shipbuilding, and consumer sectors have shown relative resilience [2] External Influences - The adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to external factors, including concerns over the "AI bubble," a retreat in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a cautious shift in market sentiment [3][4] - The volatility in global risk assets has been exacerbated by year-end fund settlement periods, prompting some investors to lock in profits and rankings through selling [3] Fundamental Support - Despite recent market fluctuations, the fundamental factors supporting the current rally in the Chinese stock market remain intact, including steady macroeconomic recovery, improved competitiveness of key industries, and enhanced capital market positioning [4][5] - The adjustment is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics, with expectations for a potential recovery as market sentiment stabilizes [4] Investment Opportunities - The current market adjustment presents a strategic opportunity for investors to reposition their portfolios ahead of the anticipated spring market rally in 2026 [6] - There is a consensus among institutions that the internal certainties of the Chinese market, such as new growth momentum and clear policy direction, will not be adversely affected by external disturbances [5][6] - Following the adjustment, sectors such as banking and insurance, along with consumer stocks with stable fundamentals, may present rotation opportunities before the technology sector regains momentum [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to maintain an active tone to support stable growth, with a projected fiscal policy combination of a 4% deficit - rate (5.88 trillion yuan deficit), 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, 4.7 trillion yuan in special local bonds, and 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds, corresponding to 14.6 trillion yuan in net government bond financing [1][11][13]. - The government - sector leverage ratio is expected to rise to 74.6% in 2026, with a slightly slower upward slope compared to 2025 [1][15]. - The net financing of interest - rate bonds in 2026 is expected to be 17.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8 trillion yuan compared to 2025, and the supply rhythm is in line with the front - loaded fiscal policy [2][16]. - After the "last dip" in the bond market, it is advisable to layout for the year - end pre - emptive market. The bond market strategy should flexibly switch between α and β strategies [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2026 Bond Supply Outlook - Fiscal Policy: The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to remain active, but with limited room for further increasing the deficit rate. "Quasi - fiscal" tools may still have room for action [1][11]. - Government Bond Net Financing: The net government bond financing in 2026 is expected to be 14.6 trillion yuan, including 7.1 trillion yuan in treasury bonds, 7.5 trillion yuan in local bonds. The government - sector leverage ratio is expected to rise to 74.6%, with a slower growth rate, and the central and local government leverage ratios are expected to rise to 32.1% and 42.5% respectively [1][15][16]. - Interest - Rate Bond Net Financing: The net financing of interest - rate bonds in 2026 is expected to be 17.1 trillion yuan, including 7.1 trillion yuan in treasury bonds, 7.5 trillion yuan in local bonds, and 2.5 trillion yuan in policy - bank bonds. The supply rhythm is front - loaded, and the supply in the fourth quarter may be relatively small [2][16][19]. - Impact of Unused Quotas: If unused quotas are considered, there is still room for an increase in government bond supply in 2026, which may be decided based on economic conditions [3][20]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: Layout for the Year - End Pre - emptive Market after the "Last Dip" - Current Situation of 10 - year Treasury Bonds: The 10 - year treasury bonds are currently fluctuating narrowly around 1.8%, which is in the middle of the central bank's attention range. Due to limited expectations of interest - rate cuts this year and the unimplemented fund fee - rate regulations, the bond market lacks a trading theme, and 1.8% has become a short - term neutral psychological point formed by institutional games [4][28]. - Seasonal Pattern: Historically, there has often been a "last dip" in mid - to late November. After the negative factors are exhausted, the bond's allocation value becomes prominent, and institutions such as rural commercial banks usually start building positions, driving down yields [4]. - Strategy Switch: The α - mining strategy for medium - term bonds is nearing its end, and it is advisable to gradually switch back to the β strategy. There may be opportunities for both α and β in ultra - long - term bonds in December [34]. - Interest - Rate Bond Selection: Currently, bonds with α - space can be selected from multiple dimensions such as riding, variety spreads, and term spreads. A dumbbell strategy can be adopted to participate in short - term and ultra - long - term bonds [5][35]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review: The Bond Market Lacks a Trading Theme, and Yields Remain Narrowly Fluctuating - Overall Market: In the third week of November, the 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuated weakly around 1.8%. The 1 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.5BP to 1.4%, the 10 - year treasury bond yield increased by 0.75BP to 1.8125%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield increased by 1.05BP to 2.1585% [9]. - (1) Funding Situation: The central bank made large - scale net injections through open - market operations (OMO), and the funding situation was balanced but tight [10][52]. - (2) Primary Issuance: The net financing of policy - bank bonds increased, while the net financing of treasury bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [52]. - (3) Benchmark Changes: The term spread of treasury bonds widened, while the term spread of China Development Bank bonds narrowed. The short - term treasury bonds performed better than the long - term ones, and the long - term China Development Bank bonds performed better than the short - term ones [50].

Core Viewpoint - The recent board elections at Zhongyin Securities revealed a notable divide in support from minority shareholders, indicating potential dissatisfaction with the company's governance and future direction [1][5][21]. Group 1: Board Elections and Shareholder Support - Two candidates from the "PetroChina system," Liang Gang and Dong Shangbin, were elected as directors with over 99.8% support overall, but received only 90.44% and 89.34% support from minority shareholders, respectively [1][4]. - This marks a significant drop in support compared to previous directors from the same system, who received over 99% support from minority shareholders two years ago [4][5]. - The voting results suggest a growing fatigue among minority shareholders regarding the "shareholder appointment/internal circulation" model and a demand for greater transparency in governance [5][21]. Group 2: Company Performance and Financials - Zhongyin Securities reported a revenue of 24.38 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.95%, and a net profit of 8.54 billion yuan, up 29.28% [13][19]. - The company remains heavily reliant on brokerage services, which generated a net income of 9.78 billion yuan, reflecting an over 80% increase [13][19]. - Despite the growth in brokerage income, the asset management business saw a decline, with net income dropping 7.76% in the first half of the year [13][15]. Group 3: Strategic Moves and Future Outlook - In August 2025, Zhongyin Securities announced a 1.4 billion yuan capital increase for its private equity subsidiary, signaling a strategic shift towards financial technology and wealth management [2][21]. - The management aims to leverage its strong shareholder background to create a comprehensive financial ecosystem, integrating commercial banking, investment banking, and wealth management [21][23]. - The company faces challenges in improving its industry ranking, having dropped to 37th in revenue and 35th in net profit among A-share listed brokers as of 2025 [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant decline on November 21, with over 5,000 stocks falling, leading to a 2.45% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell below 3,900 points, and a 4.02% drop in the ChiNext Index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The securities sector followed the market trend, with the leading securities ETF (560090) dropping 3.45%, reflecting a bearish sentiment with two consecutive days of decline [1] - Despite the overall market downturn, the securities ETF (560090) attracted over 100 million yuan in capital inflow over the past five days, indicating active buying interest [1] Group 2: Securities Sector Analysis - Nearly all component stocks of the securities ETF (560090) experienced declines, with notable drops including over 5% for Industrial Securities and over 4% for Huatai Securities and GF Securities [3] - The securities sector has seen a slight decline of 0.79% year-to-date, but the net profit growth for the first three quarters reached 62%, highlighting its high growth potential despite current low valuations [5] Group 3: M&A Activity and Future Outlook - The recent merger activity, particularly the absorption of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), is expected to reignite investor interest in securities stocks [6][7] - Analysts are optimistic about the long-term growth potential and valuation recovery of the securities sector, driven by active market trading and a stable capital market environment [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The number of penalties in the securities industry has increased recently, but the total for the year remains significantly lower than the previous year, with 310 penalties issued so far, representing 61.63% of last year's total [1] Summary by Sections Penalty Statistics - As of November 19, 310 penalties have been issued this year, which is 61.63% of the 503 penalties from the same period last year [1] - In the fourth quarter alone, 37 penalties have been issued, down from 78 in the same period last year [1][4] Types of Violations - The main types of violations in the fourth quarter include: - Employee violations of trading regulations - Breaches of integrity in the workplace - Failures in ongoing supervision - Violations in client solicitation - These categories account for 59.46% of all penalties issued [1][6] Specific Cases - The highest number of penalties was issued to Shanghai Securities, totaling 6, followed by Caixin Securities and Founder Securities with 3 each [5] - Notably, some penalties are linked to "penetrating" regulatory enforcement, where multiple entities within a firm are penalized for the same violation [5] Regulatory Environment - Despite a decrease in total penalties, the regulatory environment remains strict, with a focus on effective enforcement and deterrence against violations [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes the need for a more resilient and robust market, with improved compliance monitoring and training [9]