光伏行业"反内卷"又见实际行动。最近，又一家光伏玻璃头部企业主动减产。 8月4日晚间，福莱特在投资者互动易平台上表示，积极响应工业和信息化部"反内卷"号召，减少光伏玻 璃产能供给。 专家认为，光伏行业的供需失衡已演变为全产业链的结构性矛盾。光伏玻璃作为上游关键材料，其市场 状况直接影响着整个产业的健康发展。头部企业主动限产，促进价格回升，利于修复行业供需差。 此外，8月5日，中国机电产品进出口商会（以下简称"中国机电商会"）发布《关于反对不正当竞争，维 护光伏行业对外贸易高质量发展的倡议》。中国机电商会表示，坚决抵制以低于成本价出口等方式的各 类不正当竞争行为。 减产"反内卷" 多家上市公司行动 据卓创资讯数据，2025年上半年，在全球光伏玻璃在产产能排名中，福莱特以18%的市场份额位列第 二。福莱特主要业务涉及光伏玻璃、浮法玻璃、工程玻璃、家居玻璃四大领域，以及玻璃用石英矿的开 采和销售、太阳能光伏电站的建设及电力销售。2024年，公司光伏玻璃业务收入达168.2亿元，占据整 体营业收入的90.01%。 7月29日，海南发展发布公告称，其控股子公司于近期对550吨窑炉及5条深加工生产线进行停窑减产。 彼时， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Fulaite, is responding to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's call to reduce photovoltaic glass production capacity, indicating a shift towards managing supply in the industry [1] Company Summary - Fulaite announced on August 4 that it is actively reducing its photovoltaic glass production capacity in line with government directives [1] - The specific extent of the production cut is still under consideration and has not been fully determined [1] Industry Summary - According to SMM photovoltaic glass analyst Zheng Tianhong, the total cold repair capacity in the industry, including Fulaite's reduction, accounts for 32.18% of the total domestic photovoltaic glass capacity [1] - The total operational capacity is currently estimated to be less than 87,000 tons per day, indicating a rapid reduction in supply [1] - The entire industry is under pressure, and reducing production to mitigate losses has become a reality [1] - Recent government statements suggest that regulatory measures may be implemented to increase thresholds in energy consumption and other areas [1]

Core Viewpoint - The leading photovoltaic glass company, Fuyao (601865.SH), is actively responding to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's call to reduce photovoltaic glass production capacity to alleviate industry pressure and losses [1][3][4]. Industry Summary - The total cold repair capacity in the photovoltaic glass industry, including Fuyao's reduction, accounts for 32.18% of the domestic total capacity, with operational capacity currently below 87,000 tons per day [2][7]. - The industry is experiencing significant pressure, leading to a reality where production cuts are being implemented to reduce losses, with several companies announcing kiln shutdowns and production reductions [3][4][6]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, resulting in substantial price declines for photovoltaic glass products, which has led to ongoing losses for companies like Hainan Development and Fuyao [6][11]. - The overall production capacity in the photovoltaic industry is expected to continue declining, as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encourages leading companies to further reduce output [7][15]. Company Summary - Fuyao holds approximately 30% of the global market share in the photovoltaic glass sector and has seen a significant decline in gross margins due to falling prices since the second half of last year [4][11]. - The company is projected to report a net profit of 230 million to 280 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 81.32% to 84.66% due to industry overcapacity and intensified competition [11]. - Despite the challenges, Fuyao's production capacity utilization for 2024 is still expected to be 91.47%, indicating a relatively stable operational performance compared to other segments [8].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the EBITDA forecasts for Fuyao Glass (601865) and Xinyi Solar (00968) for 2025-2026 by 58% and 73% respectively, and the average EBITDA forecast for 2027-2030 has been reduced by 2% [1] - The target price for Fuyao Glass H-shares has been slightly decreased from HKD 6.7 to HKD 6.6, and the target price for Fuyao A-shares has been lowered from RMB 10.3 to RMB 10.2, while the target price for Xinyi Solar remains at HKD 1.9, maintaining a "sell" rating [1] - Both companies issued profit warnings that significantly missed expectations, despite a rise in stock prices for solar glass companies since April, reflecting market optimism regarding supply contraction and price increases due to anti-involution policies [1] Group 2 - The average selling price forecast for the third quarter of this year to next year has been adjusted downwards by 9% to 20%, estimating a price of RMB 10 to 11 per square meter, to reflect worsening supply and demand conditions and continued declines in raw material prices [1] - It is anticipated that the effective production capacity of both companies will decrease by approximately 20% in the second half of the year compared to the first half, with unit production costs expected to rise by 10% [1]

Group 1 - The recent "anti-involution" movement in various industries is being promoted from both policy and market perspectives, leading to positive changes in the supply chain [1] - Fuyao Glass (601865) has announced its commitment to reduce photovoltaic glass production capacity in response to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's call for anti-involution, aiming to enhance operational efficiency [1] - The company's main products include photovoltaic glass, float glass, engineering glass, and household glass, with photovoltaic glass being a core product [1] Group 2 - Fuyao Glass reported a significant decline in profitability due to falling glass prices, with a 13.2% year-on-year decrease in revenue to 18.683 billion yuan and a 63.52% drop in net profit to 1.006 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The global photovoltaic installation demand is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and emerging markets [2] - According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, global photovoltaic installations are projected to increase by approximately 35.9% year-on-year, reaching around 530 GW in 2024, with China, the US, and Europe continuing to play significant roles [2] Group 3 - Fuyao Glass noted that irrational expansion in the photovoltaic industry has led to an oversupply, causing a significant drop in prices and profit margins for many companies, resulting in severe challenges for the industry [2] - To address the "involution" competition, leading domestic photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July, which is expected to improve the supply-demand imbalance [3] - In the first quarter of this year, several photovoltaic glass companies, including Fuyao Glass, reported a turnaround in profitability or reduced losses compared to previous periods [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Fulete (福莱特) Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Fulete (福莱特) - **Industry**: Photovoltaic Glass Industry Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Fulete reported revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 28.7%, primarily due to exceptionally high installation levels in Q1 2024 [2][3] - The company faced price pressure, with domestic market prices dropping to 10.5 yuan/unit, leading to losses of 1-1.5 yuan/unit for most companies [2][6] - Despite challenges, Fulete maintained strong profitability and cash flow control, with no new investment plans currently [2][7] Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic glass industry is experiencing a second round of capacity clearance, with significant demand pressure in 2025 [3][18] - Fulete's daily photovoltaic glass production capacity reached 20,600 tons by the end of 2023, accounting for approximately 25% of the global market share [3][12] - The company has adjusted its customer structure, increasing orders from India and the US to counteract domestic price declines [2][3] Challenges and Strategies - Fulete is actively seeking to stabilize prices and is looking for support from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to avoid deeper losses [6][7] - The glass industry is facing cash flow declines, particularly among second-tier companies, which are experiencing extended payment terms and increased financial costs [8][14] - The company has proactively shut down 1,800 tons of production capacity to adapt to market adjustments, maintaining a two-month collection cycle for receivables [8][13] Future Outlook - The overall supply in the glass industry is expected to decline until the end of 2026, with a more thorough capacity clearance anticipated [3][21] - Fulete's long-term effective capacity is projected to recover to over 20% as the industry consolidates [3][13] - The company is not planning new projects, focusing instead on maintaining operational efficiency and profitability [7][17] Price and Profitability Trends - The current price of photovoltaic glass is around 10.5 yuan, with potential further declines threatening profitability across the industry [22][25] - Fulete's net profit for the year is projected to be between 550 million to 558 million yuan, factoring in some impairment elements [25] - The glass industry is expected to see price stabilization and recovery post-capacity clearance, with long-term profitability anticipated [22][26] Investment Considerations - The photovoltaic glass sector is currently undervalued, with a target price of 18.51 yuan for A-shares and 13.3 HKD for Hong Kong shares [27] - The sector's resilience and long-term investment value make Fulete a stock to watch [27][28] Additional Important Insights - The glass industry has seen a significant drop in stock prices since 2021 due to increased capacity and lower-than-expected photovoltaic installation growth [2][9] - The company benefits from a strategic production capacity layout concentrated in regions with high component manufacturer density, enhancing transportation efficiency [15][16] - The industry is characterized by a high barrier to entry due to substantial capital requirements for new projects, making it difficult for new entrants to compete effectively [14][17]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass Group have issued profit warnings that significantly underperform expectations, indicating a worsening outlook for the solar glass industry in the second half of this year and into next year [1] Industry Summary - Since April, the stock prices of solar glass companies have risen, reflecting market optimism regarding supply contraction and price increases due to anti-involution policies [1] - However, Goldman Sachs believes that the downward pressure on industry profits will intensify, leading to a forecasted average price decline of 9% to 20% for the second half of this year, bringing prices to between 10 to 11 yuan per square meter [1] - The firm anticipates a deeper correction in glass demand in the fourth quarter, driven by deteriorating supply and demand dynamics and ongoing deflation in raw material prices [1] Company-Specific Summary - EBITDA forecasts for Flat Glass Group and Xinyi Solar have been reduced by 58% and 73% respectively for the years 2025 to 2026, with average EBITDA forecasts for 2027 to 2030 also lowered by 2% [1] - Target prices for Flat Glass Group's H-shares have been slightly decreased from 6.7 HKD to 6.6 HKD, and A-shares from 10.3 yuan to 10.2 yuan, while the target price for Xinyi Solar remains at 1.9 HKD, with a "sell" rating maintained for all [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass Group have issued profit warnings that significantly underperform expectations, indicating a worsening outlook for the solar glass industry in the second half of this year and into next year [1] Industry Summary - Since April, the stock prices of solar glass companies have risen, reflecting market optimism regarding supply contraction and price increases due to anti-involution policies. However, Goldman Sachs believes that the industry's profit pressure will intensify [1] - The firm has revised its average selling price forecast for the second half of this year to next year down by 9% to 20%, estimating prices to be between 10 to 11 yuan per square meter, due to deteriorating supply and demand and ongoing deflation in raw material prices [1] - It is anticipated that the demand for glass will decline more sharply in the fourth quarter [1] Company-Specific Summary - Based on predictions of reduced effective capacity, declining prices, and rising costs, Goldman Sachs has lowered its EBITDA forecasts for Flat Glass Group and Xinyi Solar by 58% and 73% respectively for 2025 to 2026, with an average EBITDA forecast reduction of 2% for 2027 to 2030 [1] - The target price for Flat Glass Group's H-shares has been slightly reduced from 6.7 HKD to 6.6 HKD, and the A-shares target price has been lowered from 10.3 yuan to 10.2 yuan. The target price for Xinyi Solar remains at 1.9 HKD, with a "sell" rating maintained for all [1]

Regulatory Changes - Recent tax regulations require individuals to declare and pay taxes on overseas stock trading income at a rate of 20% [1] - Taxpayers are allowed to offset gains and losses within the same tax year but not across different years [1] Market Performance - In July, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.18 million units, marking a 25% year-on-year increase but a 4% month-on-month decline [3] - A-share market saw 1.96 million new accounts opened in July, a 71% increase year-on-year and a 19% increase month-on-month, indicating a recovery in market activity [4] Corporate Developments - China Shipbuilding plans to absorb China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, which may lead to the latter's stock being delisted [5] - A stock resumption is scheduled for Aug 5 for a company that reported a 12.5% increase in revenue but a 32.91% decrease in net profit due to foreign exchange losses [6] - A company has begun small-scale supply of humanoid robots, expecting sales revenue of approximately 10 million in 2025 [7] - A company plans to raise up to 730 million for projects related to precision gear manufacturing for new energy vehicles [8] - A company sold shares of China Power Construction for a total of 184 million, expecting a net investment gain of approximately 45.75 million [9] - Guizhou Moutai has repurchased 3.45 million shares for a total of 5.301 billion, representing 0.2748% of its total share capital [14] - A company is responding to government calls to reduce production capacity in the photovoltaic glass sector [15] - A company plans to acquire 51% of a semiconductor firm to facilitate its strategic transition into the semiconductor industry [17]

Group 1: Robotics and Automation - Tianzhun Technology has developed an intelligent driving domain controller that can serve the Robotaxi sector [1] - Haoshi Electromechanical has successfully applied a massage robot in professional beauty chain institutions [1] - Xinhongye is focusing on the research and development of humanoid robot cable technology and product iteration [1] Group 2: Semiconductor and Related Technologies - Huagong Technology's self-developed 1.6T silicon optical module has entered the sample testing phase with key customers [2] - Longtu Photomask is providing semiconductor masks for Innosilicon [2] - Yangjie Technology has released new products applicable to AR glasses and related fields [2] Group 3: Other Industry Developments - Rongda Photosensitive is supplying PCB photoresist products to Shenghong Technology [1] - Deyuan Pump Industry has products compatible with fluorine pump natural cooling systems [2] - Zhongyuan Tong's power products are core components of liquid-cooled server equipment [2] - China Chemical is engaging in business connections with owners related to the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream project [2] - Grinmei's ultra-high nickel 9-series ternary precursor has passed mass production certification and achieved small-scale production of ten tons [2]