Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass industry is currently experiencing weak demand, with inventory days increasing and prices dropping to RMB 11.5 per square meter, leading to near breakeven profitability for four leading companies, while others face deepening losses [1] Supply and Demand - The report indicates that by 2026, the industry's capacity utilization will become increasingly polarized, requiring a reduction of 5,000 to 20,000 tons of domestic photovoltaic glass capacity to achieve supply-demand balance [1] - Domestic demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline by approximately 23% to 36% due to weakened component demand next year, while overseas component demand is projected to grow by about 60 GW, reaching a total demand of 150 GW [1] - Approximately 8,800 tons of domestic capacity will still need to be allocated for direct sales of glass overseas, benefiting companies with an established overseas customer base, while those with weaker export capabilities may face operational pressures due to accumulating inventory [1] Price and Cost - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is expected to stabilize next year, with the average price for this year being RMB 12.59 per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 15.83% [2] - The average price for next year is projected to remain in the range of RMB 13 to 13.5 per square meter [2] Profitability - Leading companies are expected to see an increase in profit margins, with two leading firms projected to improve their overall profit margins by approximately 5 percentage points compared to this year [2] - Second-tier leading companies, such as South Glass A and Qibin Group, may see profit margins increase by 2 to 3 percentage points, while most second-tier and below companies lack an overseas customer base, making it difficult to improve profitability through exports [2]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass industry is currently experiencing weak demand, with inventory days increasing and prices dropping to RMB 11.5 per square meter, leading to near breakeven profitability for four leading companies while others face deepening losses [1] Supply and Demand - The report indicates that by 2026, the industry's capacity utilization will become increasingly polarized, requiring a reduction of 5,000 to 20,000 tons of domestic photovoltaic glass capacity to achieve supply-demand balance [1] - Domestic demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline by approximately 23% to 36% due to weakened component demand next year, while overseas component demand is projected to grow by about 60 GW, reaching a total demand of 150 GW [1] - Approximately 8,800 tons of domestic capacity will still need to be allocated for direct sales of glass overseas, benefiting companies with an established overseas customer base while those with weaker export capabilities may face operational pressures due to accumulating inventory [1] Price and Cost - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is expected to stabilize next year, with the average price for this year being RMB 12.59 per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 15.83% [2] - The average price for next year is projected to remain in the range of RMB 13 to 13.5 per square meter [2] Profitability - Leading companies are expected to see an increase in profit margins, with two leading firms projected to improve their overall profit margins by approximately 5 percentage points compared to this year [2] - Second-tier leading companies, such as South Glass A and Qibin Group, may see profit margins increase by 2 to 3 percentage points, while most second-tier and lower-tier companies lack an overseas customer base, making it difficult to improve profitability through exports [2]

标的方面：推荐信义光能(00968)、福莱特(601865.SH)，建议关注南玻A(000012.SZ)及旗滨集团 (601636.SH)。 基于这种情况，中金认为，有海外客户基础的光伏玻璃企业仍能保持相对较好的开工率；而产品出口能 力有限的企业最终会因库存持续增加且无法转化为收入，使得生产经营维系压力增加，最终导致现金流 断裂，产能被动出清。 价格及成本方面，明年相较今年有望趋于稳定。今年2.0mm光伏玻璃含税均价12.59元/平方米，同比下 滑15.83%。中金认为，明年均价按照不得低于成本价销售的指引，全年有望维持在13-13.5元/平方米。 成本方面，明年整体存在小幅压降的空间，主要系重碱、超白石英砂供过于求，价格有小幅下调空间， 天然气价格平稳，澄清剂中锑用量逐步降低所致。 利润方面，头部企业利润率中枢有望上浮，而二线以下企业利润存在继续下探的风险。国内方面，明年 龙头玻璃企业国内盈利较今年有所改善；同时，二线头部以下玻璃企业难以通过低于行业均价的售价来 增加玻璃销量，利润转化困难。 海外方面，由于外资组件厂商需求持续攀升，预期净利润仍能保持在3元/平方米以上。头部企业可以通 过增加海外出货占比提升 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：马妍/刘佳妮/石玉琦 行业近况 海外方面，由于外资组件厂商需求持续攀升，我们预期净利润仍能保持在3 元/平方米以上。头部企业 可以通过增加海外出货占比提升综合利润率。我们测算，头部两家企业综合利润率相较今年有望提升 5ppt；二线头部企业南玻A和旗滨集团的综合利润率有望提升2-3ppt；而国内二线中部及以下企业大多 数没有海外客户基础，难以通过出口产品获取更高的利润从而改善生存状态。 估值与建议 推荐信义光能、福莱特，建议关注南玻A（建材组覆盖）及旗滨集团（与建材组联合覆盖），维持覆盖 公司估值及盈利预测不变。 风险 宏观经济风险，政策性风险，贸易摩擦风险，产业链博弈风险；原燃料价格波动风险，产品替代风险。 供需方面，我们认为2026 年产能利用率两极分化加深，若达到供需平衡，国内光伏玻璃产能相较今年 需减产5000-20000 吨。 由于明年国内组件需求减弱，对应光伏玻璃需求下滑约23-36%；海外组件需求有望较今年增长约 60GW，总需求有望达到150GW，我们测算仍需要国内调配8800 吨产能，以玻璃形态直销海外。基于 这种情况，我们认为，有海外客户基础的光伏玻璃企业仍能保持相对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a decline in demand for photovoltaic glass, with inventory days increasing and prices dropping to 11.5 yuan per square meter [1] Supply and Demand - By 2026, the capacity utilization rate is expected to become more polarized, with a necessary reduction in domestic photovoltaic glass production by 5,000 to 20,000 tons to achieve supply-demand balance [1] - Domestic demand for photovoltaic glass is projected to decrease by approximately 23% to 36% due to weakened component demand next year, while overseas component demand is expected to grow by about 60 GW, leading to a total demand of around 150 GW [1] - An estimated 8,800 tons of domestic capacity will need to be allocated for direct sales of glass to overseas markets [1] Pricing and Costs - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass, including tax, was 12.59 yuan per square meter this year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.83% [1] - The average price for next year is expected to stabilize between 13 to 13.5 yuan per square meter, based on the guideline of not selling below cost [1] Profitability - The report suggests that leading companies may see an increase in profit margins, while second-tier companies face risks of further profit declines [1] - Recommended companies include Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass, with a suggestion to pay attention to Nanfang Glass and Qibin Group [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current core issue in the soda ash market has shifted from simple price fluctuations to a cost competition among different production processes [1][14]. Market Dynamics - As of December 16, 2025, the main contract for soda ash (SA401) closed at 1463 yuan/ton, down 2.66%, indicating ongoing volatility around the cost line [2]. - The price range of 1160 to 1190 yuan/ton has been observed, with total domestic soda ash inventory at 1.4943 million tons, remaining historically high despite a slight decrease in social inventory [5]. - The supply side has seen reduced operating rates due to losses and maintenance, while demand from the float glass industry has weakened due to ongoing losses [5][6]. Cost Structure - The production of soda ash is primarily divided into three processes: ammonia-soda process, soda-lime process, and natural soda process, with significant cost differences [14]. - The natural soda process can maintain costs below 1000 yuan/ton, while the soda-lime process has a cost center around 1050 to 1200 yuan/ton, and the ammonia-soda process exceeds 1300 yuan/ton [14]. - Companies using the ammonia-soda process are facing severe losses, leading to difficult decisions regarding production and maintenance [15]. Market Behavior - Low-cost producers are adopting strategies to increase market share, while high-cost producers are caught in a "prisoner's dilemma," where reducing production could lead to loss of market share [16]. - The industry consensus is forming around the need for high-cost capacity to exit the market to restore supply-demand balance [17]. Trading Strategies - The trading logic is evolving due to the lack of clear trends, with participants focusing on basis, price spreads, and process profits [19]. - Companies are shifting to dynamic and proportional hedging strategies, adjusting their positions based on price movements relative to production costs [20]. - The options market is becoming more active, providing new tools for companies and investors to manage uncertainty [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the power equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry has shown significant developments, including a major order for humanoid robots from a leading AI model company, valued at over 50 million RMB, highlighting the integration of AI and robotics [2] - The Central Economic Work Conference has set the agenda for 2026, focusing on energy independence and green transformation, which will drive the demand for renewable energy solutions [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing market pricing for centralized renewable energy generation, as outlined by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Aiyu Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Buy - B - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) - Buy - B - Daqo New Energy (688303.SH) - Buy - B - Haibo Innovation (688411.SH) - Buy - A - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) - Buy - A - Deye Technology (605117.SH) - Buy - A - Langxin Group (300682.SZ) - Buy - B - Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH) - Buy - A - Hengdian East Magnet (002056.SZ) - Buy - A [3][4][7] Price Tracking - The average price of polysilicon remains stable at 52.0 RMB/kg, while the average price of silicon wafers and battery cells has shown signs of stabilization after previous declines [6][8][9] Investment Suggestions - Key recommendations focus on various sectors: - BC new technology: Aiyu Co., Ltd., Longi Green Energy - Supply-side: Daqo New Energy, Fulete - Energy storage: Haibo Innovation, Sungrow Power Supply, Deye Technology - Market-oriented: Langxin Group - Domestic substitution: Quartz Co., Ltd. - Overseas expansion: Hengdian East Magnet, Bowei Alloy [10]

Core Viewpoint - The pure soda ash market is experiencing a tug-of-war around the cost line, with prices fluctuating between 1050 to 1200 RMB/ton, impacting the profitability of different production processes [2][10]. Market Dynamics - The main contract SA401 for pure soda ash has been trading in a narrow range, closing at 1126 RMB/ton on December 15, 2025, after hitting a low of 1094 RMB/ton a week earlier [2][3]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was reported at 1.4943 million tons as of December 11, 2025, indicating high stock levels despite a slight decrease in social inventory [3]. - The supply side is facing challenges as some companies reduce production due to losses, while demand from the float glass industry is weakening due to ongoing losses and increased cold repair plans [3][4]. Cost Structure and Production Methods - The cost structure of soda ash production varies significantly among different methods: natural soda ash can be produced for under 1000 RMB/ton, while the dominant synthetic soda ash method has a cost center around 1050 to 1200 RMB/ton, and older ammonia-soda methods exceed 1300 RMB/ton [10][11]. - Companies using the ammonia-soda method are facing severe financial pressure, with some considering early maintenance shutdowns to mitigate losses [11][12]. Market Sentiment and Trading Strategies - Market sentiment is mixed, with participants oscillating between hope and reality, leading to a low-level wide fluctuation trend in prices [7][8]. - Traditional trend-following strategies are failing, prompting a shift towards more complex trading strategies focused on basis, price spreads, and production process profits [14][15]. - The market is seeing a rise in options trading as participants seek to hedge against volatility, with a notable increase in the use of dynamic and proportional hedging strategies [15][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the weak fundamentals of the soda ash market will continue, with expectations of a bearish trend in the short term due to persistent oversupply pressures [4][13]. - The industry consensus is forming around the need for high-cost production capacity to exit the market to restore balance, with participants awaiting a significant clearing signal [13].

Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market and combating "involution" in competition, aiming to promote the construction of "good houses" and accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development [6][15] - The report suggests that the cement, glass, and certain consumer building materials industries may see continued optimization in supply-side dynamics, leading to increased concentration and improved profitability [6][15] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a recovery in retail due to high demand for second-hand housing and supportive subsidy policies, with leading companies showing strong operational resilience [6][31] - Long-term demand stability and increasing industry concentration provide significant growth potential for quality leading companies in the consumer building materials sector [6][31] - Key companies to watch include Sanke Tree, Rabbit Baby, Hanhai Group, Dongfang Yuhong, China Liansu, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and others [6][31] Cement - National cement market prices increased by 0.05% week-on-week, with the average price at 355 RMB/ton as of December 12, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 69.17% [6][31] - The report anticipates that cement prices will maintain a slight fluctuation in the future, with industry valuations at historical lows, highlighting companies like Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others for potential investment [6][31] Glass - Float glass prices are showing mixed trends, while photovoltaic glass inventories continue to rise, with the average price of float glass at 1156 RMB/ton, down 1.0% month-on-month and 18.0% year-on-year [6][31] - The report indicates that leading glass companies have low valuations and suggests focusing on Qibin Group, Xinyi Solar, and others for investment opportunities [6][31] Fiberglass/Carbon-based Composites - The market for fiberglass is stable, with direct yarn prices holding steady, while electronic yarn prices have stabilized after previous increases [6][31] - The report identifies leading companies in the fiberglass sector, including China Jushi and others, as having a significant competitive edge [6][31] Market Data and Trends - The report notes that the consumer building materials sector has seen a year-on-year revenue decline of 4.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable improvement in revenue growth rates for leading companies [33][34] - The profitability of the consumer building materials sector is stabilizing, with net profit margins hovering at the bottom, indicating potential for recovery as market conditions improve [34][41]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying investment opportunities in the building materials sector as it transitions from a period of intense competition to one focused on value extraction and growth [1]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities in the Building Materials Sector - Four key investment themes are highlighted: traditional building material leaders emerging from the bottom of the cycle, overseas capacity expansion, high-demand new materials, and policy support for industry consolidation [5]. - Traditional building material leaders are expected to recover first, with a focus on alpha opportunities as the sector stabilizes [14]. - The overseas expansion of building material capacity is driven by high demand in foreign markets, particularly in Africa, where Chinese companies are increasingly investing [20][22]. Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is stabilizing, with a narrowing decline in real estate indicators expected in 2026, leading to a potential rebound in demand [15]. - Strong alpha leaders in the sector are anticipated to achieve positive revenue growth first, with companies like Sanke Tree and Dongfang Yuhong highlighted as key players [15][16]. - Profit margins are expected to improve in 2026 due to price stabilization, structural optimization, and enhanced operational efficiency [15]. Group 3: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber market is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with demand expected to grow by 5.8% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026 [5][25]. - The report notes that the profitability of traditional glass fiber products is on an upward trajectory, with leading companies benefiting from differentiated product advantages [5][28]. Group 4: Cement Industry - The domestic cement market is facing a decline in demand, with expectations of a 7% drop in 2025 and a 6% drop in 2026, while overseas markets remain robust [5][31]. - The report suggests that supply-side policies will play a crucial role in stabilizing the market, with potential profitability improvements anticipated in 2026 [5][36]. Group 5: Glass Industry - The glass industry is expected to see supply optimization as a key theme in 2026, with a slight decline in demand for float glass anticipated [5][40]. - The photovoltaic glass segment is projected to experience a balanced supply-demand situation, with potential profitability improvements if production resumes [5][45].