Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has updated its production guidance for Zijin Mining's Kamoa-Kakula copper project for 2026 and 2027, alleviating previous concerns about production interruptions [1] Group 1: Production Guidance - The copper production guidance for 2026 has been adjusted to between 380,000 to 420,000 tons, and for 2027 to between 500,000 to 540,000 tons [1] Group 2: Price Forecasts - Gold price forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 2%, 22%, and 35% respectively, while copper price forecasts have been raised by 2%, 13%, and 0% [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecasts - Zijin Mining's earnings forecasts for the same period have been raised by 20%, 61%, and 35% respectively [1] Group 4: Target Price and Rating - Macquarie has increased the target price for Zijin Mining by 75% to HKD 40, which corresponds to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 times for the next year, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

麦格理发布研报称，紫金矿业（601899）(02899)旗下关键铜矿项目Kamoa-Kakula更新了2026及2027年 的铜产量指引，分别调整至38万至42万公吨，及50万至54万公吨，消除了较早前营运中断所引发的产量 忧虑。该行将2025至2027年黄金价格预测分别上调2%、22%及35%，铜价预测上调2%、13%及0%。同 时，将紫金矿业同期盈利预测分别上调20%、61%及35%;麦格理升紫金目标价75%至40港元，相当于预 测明年市盈率9.6倍，维持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals sector is experiencing strong upward momentum driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and rising risk aversion due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Recent performance shows spot gold and silver prices reaching new highs, with platinum and palladium futures seeing significant daily gains, particularly platinum prices exceeding 800 yuan per gram [1] - Major economies are adjusting monetary policies, with the Bank of Japan raising rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, while the Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, reinforcing expectations of a global monetary easing cycle [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector benefits from dual support of global monetary easing expectations and domestic growth stabilization policies, with U.S. inflation data reinforcing these expectations [1] - The copper supply chain is tightening, as evidenced by a significant drop in processing fees for copper concentrate, reflecting a constrained supply environment [1] - The aluminum sector shows a mixed supply-demand dynamic, with slight increases in supply but weakening demand, leading to a notable rise in social inventory levels [1] Group 3: New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a phase of tight supply and demand, with prices expected to remain volatile at high levels due to ongoing inventory depletion [2] - The rare earth sector has a clear long-term outlook, driven by export controls that enhance China's pricing power in the global market, which is expected to boost industry profitability and valuation [2]

金矿股价飙升的背后是其业绩的大幅增长。财报数据显示，招金黄金前三季度净利润同比增幅达 191.2%，西部黄金净利润增幅也高达168.04%，头部企业紫金矿业更是以378.64亿元的归母净利润稳居 板块首位，同比增长55.45%。 不少分析师指出，黄金企业在开采成本相对刚性的背景下，金价上涨的收益几乎可以直接转化为利润增 长，这也是黄金股业绩弹性远超金价本身的核心原因。随着金价高位运行趋势延续，相关黄金矿业企业 的盈利空间有望进一步释放。 在多重利好因素下，国内外机构纷纷上调黄金价格预期，一致看好黄金后续走势。据了解，高盛、美银 等国际头部机构已大幅上调金价目标价，其中美银将黄金目标价看涨至5000美元/盎司，高盛则预计黄 金2026年将上涨至4900美元/盎司；国内机构同样态度积极，国泰君安预计2026年黄金高点将达到4700 美元/盎司左右。 而金价的暴涨也迅速传导至A股市场，形成联动上涨效应。今日A股开盘后，黄金概念股集体走强，西 部黄金、豫光金铅、紫金矿业、中金黄金、山东黄金、赤峰黄金等多只个股纷纷高开高走。其中西部黄 金年内涨幅近145%，中金黄金年内涨幅105%；赤峰黄金年内涨幅115% 12月22 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.46%, ranking in the upper middle among all primary industries. The energy metals sector rose by 5.08%, while the precious metals sector increased by 0.68% [1][14] - Gold prices have broken through the consolidation range, while silver's bullish sentiment has peaked, indicating a potential risk of a sharp short-term correction [1][49][50] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the index by 1.44 percentage points [14] - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, with energy metals leading the gains [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices fluctuated with LME copper at $11,882 per ton (up 2.85%) and SHFE copper at ¥93,180 per ton (down 0.96%). Supply remains weak, with a forecasted global copper shortage of 150,000 tons by 2026. Demand is deteriorating as construction projects pause, leading to increased spot market discounts [2][30] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose to $2,945 per ton (up 2.43%), while SHFE aluminum was at ¥22,185 per ton (up 0.07%). Supply conditions are stable, with new capacity coming online, but demand remains cautious due to a downturn in the real estate sector [3][35] - **Zinc**: Prices fell, with LME zinc at $3,073 per ton (down 2.12%) and SHFE zinc at ¥23,065 per ton (down 2.29%). Inventory levels showed mixed trends [41] - **Tin**: Prices increased, with LME tin at $43,227 per ton (up 5.11%) and SHFE tin at ¥343,040 per ton (up 3.02%). Supply from Indonesia has increased, but demand remains cautious [46] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,368.70 per ounce (up 0.90%), while SHFE gold was at ¥979.90 per gram (up 0.95%). Economic data from the U.S. showed mixed results, but overall inflation appears to be cooling, which may influence future gold prices positively [4][49] - **Silver**: The report warns of extreme bullish sentiment in silver, with potential for a sharp correction as market volatility peaks [50]

今天早盘，贵金属期货继续一骑绝尘！现货黄金突破前期高点，站上4384美元上方，再创历史新高。沪 银期货主力合约一度涨超5%，突破16000元关口，续创历史新高，今年累计上涨超114%。现货铂金突 破2000美元大关。A股市场上，贵金属概念跟随震荡走强，紫金矿业涨超5%，再创历史新高，白银有 色触及涨停，盛达资源、湖南白银、西部黄金、豫光金铅跟涨。过去几个交易日，贵金属市场呈现罕见 集体爆发行情，铂、钯期货连续大涨，市场做多情绪高涨，呈现出资金推动与情绪共振的显著特征。贵 金属市场全面爆发的同时，市场似乎陷入了狂热与理性并存的矛盾状态：一边是创纪录的涨幅和资金涌 入，另一边则是越来越多机构对风险积累的警告。分析师们几乎一致认为，供需基本面不会在短期内发 生根本性改变。但在连续创下历史新高后，市场正面临着"预期兑现"后的获利了结压力。 ...

2025.12. 22 本文字数：2953，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 从长三角地区来看，总市值达到31.51万亿元，占A股总市值的26.2%，其中，苏州、无锡、杭州等 市值增长幅度排名居前。合肥、武汉、绍兴等今年相继跨入万亿市值城市阵营。 市值变化背后，是经济增长动能的新旧转换。透过上市公司市值排名的升降，不仅可以看到各地产业 结构的差异，更能看出资本对区域经济前景的投票。 在城市竞争中，除传统金融与科技中心外，一 批制造业基础扎实、创新生态活跃的地级市正迎头赶上，推动A股市值地图向更加均衡、多元的方向 演进。 五强稳固，福建夺目，贵州下滑 2025年A股总市值跨过100万亿关口，截至12月19日已达120.31万亿，较年初增长22.2%。 从一杯白酒到一束"光"，A股上市公司四川省市值头把交椅的变化，正是电子行业爆发的缩影。 在川渝地区， 五粮液（000858.SZ）不再是四川省独一份的存在，取而代之的是光模块龙头新易盛 （300502.SZ），该股首次问鼎四川省市值第一 。 即将过去的这一年，AI掀起巨浪，电子与通信产业毫无悬念地站上潮头，科技牛股在各个行业加速 涌现，更在区域维度上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant market movements in A-shares, particularly the surge in various sectors such as the Hainan Free Trade Zone and semiconductor industry, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [3][4]. Market Performance - As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.8% [3]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4]. Sector Highlights - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector saw a notable increase of 9.59%, with 22 stocks hitting the daily limit [4]. - Other sectors that performed well include: - Precious metals, up 4.34% - Free Trade Port, up 4.14% - Storage chips, up 3.32% [4]. Notable Stocks - Zhangzhou Development surged to its daily limit, attributed to the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal focusing on cross-strait integration [5]. - China Duty Free Group's A-shares and H-shares both rose over 10%, following a strong sales performance of 118 million yuan on the first day of customs closure in Sanya [6]. Commodity Movements - Palladium futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit the daily limit, while precious metals like gold and silver also saw significant price increases, with gold surpassing 4,380 USD per ounce [7][10][19].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the CSI 300 ETF managed by CICC shows a slight increase, with notable movements in its constituent stocks, indicating mixed market sentiment and sector performance [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - As of the midday close on December 22, the CSI 300 ETF (510320) rose by 0.98%, priced at 1.240 yuan, with a trading volume of 1.2508 million yuan [1] - The performance benchmark for the CSI 300 ETF is the return rate of the CSI 300 Index, with a return of 22.91% since its inception on April 16, 2025, and a recent one-month return of -0.30% [1] Group 2: Constituent Stocks Performance - Notable movements among the top holdings include: - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (宁德时代) decreased by 0.91% - Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (贵州茅台) increased by 0.09% - Ping An Insurance (中国平安) fell by 0.45% - China Merchants Bank (招商银行) declined by 0.17% - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (紫金矿业) rose by 4.24% - NewEase Technology (新易盛) increased by 6.19% - Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创) grew by 5.60% - Midea Group (美的集团) decreased by 0.31% - East Money Information Co., Ltd. (东方财富) rose by 0.39% - Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. (长江电力) fell by 1.18% [1]

麦格理发表报告指，紫金矿业旗下关键铜矿项目Kamoa-Kakula更新了2026及2027年的铜产量指引，分 别调整至38万至42万公吨，及50万至54万公吨，消除了较早前营运中断所引发的产量忧虑。该行将2025 至2027年黄金价格预测分别上调2%、22%及35%，铜价预测上调2%、13%及0%。该行将紫金矿业同期 盈利预测分别上调20%、61%及35%，上调目标价75%至40港元，相当于预测明年市盈率9.6倍，维 持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...