证券分析师 行业研究 关注地缘冲突，铝价或受支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/03/11） 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.03.11） 固定收益研究 收益率保持下行，信用利差分化——信用债周报 晨会纪要（2026/03/11） 固定收益研究 收益率保持下行，信用利差分化——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（3 月 2 日至 3 月 8 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上行，整体变化幅度为-1 BP 至 6 BP。低 基数效应下，本期信用债发行规模环比大幅增长，企业债保持零发行，其余品种发行金额增加；信用债净 融资额环比增加，企业债净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债净融资额为负，其余品种净融资 额为正。二级市场方面，本期信用债成 ...

关于对外担保的进展公告 股票代码：603799 股票简称：华友钴业 公告编号：2026-013 浙江华友钴业股份有限公司 关于对外担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 被担保人名称及是否为上市公司关联人：被担保人包括 5 家公司，不存在关 联担保； 本次担保金额及累计担保余额：2026 年 2 月担保金额合计 105,100.00 万元； 截至 2026 年 2 月 28 日，浙江华友钴业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）对外 提供担保余额为 9,533,720.95 万元，主要为对控股子公司及其下属企业、参股公司 的担保； 对外担保逾期的累计数量：无； 特别风险提示：公司及控股子公司对外担保总额超过最近一期经审计净资产 100%；2026 年 2 月为资产负债率超过 70%的子公司提供的担保金额为 104,000.00 万元，敬请投资者注意相关风险。 一、担保情况概述 | | | 关于对外担保的进展公告 | 华友钴业 | 浙江巴莫科技有限责任公司 | 20,000.00 | 2029/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions are likely to support aluminum prices due to expected supply tightening, while the gold market faces increased volatility due to rising oil prices and geopolitical developments [3][6][49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly its impact on market sentiment and commodity prices [7][19]. Industry Summary Steel - Supply and demand have shown some recovery post-holiday, but demand is recovering slower than supply, leading to increased inventory levels. As of March 6, total steel inventory was 19.27 million tons, up 5.54% from the previous period [20][26]. - The production of five major steel products was 7.97 million tons, a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous week, but down 4.44% year-on-year [21][26]. Copper - Copper inventories continue to accumulate, with geopolitical tensions affecting market demand. As of March 6, LME copper prices were $12,800 per ton, down 4.70% from the previous period [44][42]. - The report notes that the ongoing conflict is expected to keep pressure on copper prices due to rising oil prices and a stronger dollar [9][41]. Aluminum - The report indicates that the Middle East's electrolytic aluminum exports are hindered, leading to a tightening supply situation that may support aluminum prices. As of March 6, LME aluminum prices were $3,400 per ton, up 7.21% from the previous period [47][49]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to face challenges due to policy constraints [10][49]. Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold prices, which have been under pressure due to inflation concerns and a stronger dollar. As of March 6, gold prices were $5,181.30 per ounce, down 2.17% from the previous period [53][54]. - The report suggests that investors should closely monitor developments in the Iranian conflict as it may influence market dynamics [53][54]. Lithium and New Energy Metals - The report notes that lithium prices are under pressure due to concerns over energy storage demand amid geopolitical tensions. As of March 6, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were 157,000 yuan per ton, down 8.99% from the previous period [59][58]. - The report highlights the potential for price weakness in lithium due to rising oil prices and market uncertainties [58][59]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The report indicates that rare earth prices have declined due to poor demand data from the electric vehicle sector and geopolitical tensions. As of March 6, light rare earth oxide prices were 850,000 yuan per ton, down 4.49% from the previous period [65][66]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor geopolitical developments and downstream demand data for potential impacts on rare earth prices [65][66].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400) and its major holdings, highlighting the fluctuations in stock prices of key companies within the sector [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400) opened with a gain of 0.66%, priced at 2.272 yuan [1] - Since its inception on August 3, 2017, the ETF has achieved a return of 130.66%, with a recent one-month return of 2.76% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Key stocks within the ETF include: - Zijin Mining: up 1.59% - Luoyang Molybdenum: up 1.79% - Northern Rare Earth: up 1.15% - Huayou Cobalt: up 1.68% - China Aluminum: down 3.21% - Ganfeng Lithium: up 1.53% - Shandong Gold: up 1.43% - Yun Aluminum: down 3.27% - Zhongjin Gold: up 1.53% - Cangge Mining: up 1.15% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Invesco ETF (560290) in the non-ferrous metal sector, showing a slight increase of 0.82% at the opening [1] - Major holdings in the Invesco ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 1.59%, and Luoyang Molybdenum, which increased by 1.79%, while China Aluminum saw a decline of 3.21% [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, with a return of -2.32% since its inception on January 26, 2026, and a return of 3.07% over the past month [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., with the fund manager being Gong Lili [1] - The article provides a detailed overview of the performance of various stocks within the ETF, indicating a mixed performance among its holdings [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400), which opened down by 2.33% at 2.226 yuan on March 9 [1] - Major holdings in the Nonferrous Metals ETF experienced varied performance, with Zijin Mining down 3.15%, Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.18%, and Northern Rare Earth down 2.21%, while China Aluminum rose by 2.36% [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Southern Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 132.75% since its inception on August 3, 2017, and a return of 5.79% over the past month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Invesco ETF for non-ferrous metals (560290) opened with a decline of 1.01%, priced at 0.978 yuan, indicating a negative market sentiment towards the sector [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Invesco non-ferrous metals ETF (560290) has a performance benchmark of the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index return [1] - Since its establishment on January 26, 2026, the fund has recorded a return of -1.40% [1] - Over the past month, the fund has achieved a return of 6.15% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major holdings in the ETF include: - Zijin Mining: down 3.15% - Luoyang Molybdenum: down 4.18% - Northern Rare Earth: down 2.21% - China Aluminum: up 2.36% - Huayou Cobalt: down 3.33% - Zhongjin Gold: down 3.20% - Shandong Gold: down 2.22% - Xingye Silver Tin: down 4.15% - Ganfeng Lithium: down 2.87% - Tongling Nonferrous Metals: down 2.95% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The geopolitical situation has intensified, leading to opportunities in precious metals during a stagflation cycle. The report emphasizes the importance of positioning in precious metals due to supply disruption risks and low employment data indicating potential economic stagnation [1] - For copper, demand remains resilient despite short-term geopolitical disturbances, with expectations of improved production in downstream markets. The report suggests a cautious outlook on inventory levels and pricing trends [2] - Aluminum prices have reached historical highs amid political unrest, with stable supply and increasing demand as production resumes post-holiday [3] - Nickel prices have declined due to geopolitical disturbances, but supply constraints provide some support. The report notes a sluggish demand recovery in stainless steel and a cautious outlook for battery-grade nickel [4] - Tin prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations due to supply tightness and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [5] - Lithium prices have seen a downward trend due to geopolitical and import disturbances, but demand is expected to improve as production resumes in the battery sector [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the potential for precious metals as a hedge against geopolitical risks and economic stagnation, recommending companies such as Xinyi Silver and Zijin Mining [1] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Demand is expected to recover as production ramps up, with a focus on companies like Zijin Mining and Western Mining [2] - **Aluminum**: The report notes stable supply and increasing demand, recommending companies such as China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum [3] - **Nickel**: Supply constraints are noted, with a focus on companies like Huayou Cobalt and Greenmech [4] - **Tin**: The report suggests monitoring supply and demand dynamics, recommending companies like Yunnan Tin and Xinyi Silver [5] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report indicates a downward price trend but anticipates a recovery in demand, recommending companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [6] - **Cobalt**: The report notes stable supply and demand, with a focus on companies like Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that tungsten prices continue to reach historical highs, with expectations for a strong overall market for key metals [1][23] - Nickel prices are supported by tightening supply expectations due to Indonesia's reduced production quotas for 2026, which are set between 260 million to 270 million tons, significantly lower than the previous year's quota of 42 million wet tons [1][29] - Cobalt supply is expected to tighten further due to slow export progress from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a forecasted increase in cobalt prices [2][5] - Antimony prices are anticipated to remain strong due to supply constraints, with a significant drop in production reported [6][18] - Lithium supply disruptions are expected to continue, with potential for lithium prices to reach new highs amid increasing demand [8][19] - The rare earth sector is facing supply shortages, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium, which may support prices [9][20] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a notable decrease in tin imports [11][21] - Uranium supply is expected to remain tight, supporting high prices due to geopolitical factors and production delays [14][24] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Insights - Indonesia's nickel production quota for 2026 is set to significantly reduce, impacting supply and supporting prices [1][29] - Cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo are hindered by complex local processes and logistical challenges, leading to tighter supply [2][5] Antimony Industry Insights - Antimony production has seen a sharp decline, which is expected to support prices in the near term [6][18] Lithium Industry Insights - Lithium prices are under pressure due to supply disruptions, but demand remains strong, potentially leading to price increases [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Insights - Supply shortages for praseodymium and neodymium are anticipated, which may bolster prices in the market [9][20] Tin Industry Insights - Ongoing supply issues from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to support tin prices [11][21] Uranium Industry Insights - The uranium market is facing supply constraints, which are likely to keep prices elevated due to geopolitical tensions and production delays [14][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting global commodity markets, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, leading to increased prices for key resources [8][28]. - The report highlights a strong expectation for aluminum prices to rise due to supply constraints caused by geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East [28]. - Demand recovery is noted in the aluminum sector as downstream industries resume operations post-holiday, with significant increases in aluminum water ratios [28]. - The lithium and cobalt markets are experiencing upward price pressures due to supply concerns from Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo, respectively [28]. - Precious metals are expected to benefit from heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, with a bullish outlook on gold prices in the medium to long term [28]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a general upward trend in stock prices despite recent market volatility [11][13]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices have increased by 9.22% week-on-week, with expectations for continued strength due to supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions [15][28]. - Copper prices have shown volatility, with a recent decline attributed to rising geopolitical risks and a strong dollar, impacting market sentiment [48][49]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated due to supply and demand dynamics, with recent increases in domestic inventories affecting price stability [60][61]. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - Gold prices have risen by 3.71% recently, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties [16][28]. - The report notes that silver prices have also increased significantly, reflecting strong industrial demand and investment interest [16][28]. - Cobalt and nickel markets are under pressure from supply constraints and geopolitical factors, with expectations for price increases in the near term [28][73]. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights into rare earths in this section, focusing instead on the broader non-ferrous metals market dynamics [28].