Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt experienced a decline of 5.03% on November 24, with a stock price of 56.68 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 107.47 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. was established on May 22, 2002, and listed on January 29, 2015. The company specializes in the research and manufacturing of new energy lithium battery materials and cobalt new materials [1] - The revenue composition of Huayou Cobalt includes: nickel products (34.54%), cathode materials (16.28%), trading and others (15.55%), nickel intermediates (14.91%), copper products (5.95%), ternary precursors (5.25%), lithium products (4.18%), and cobalt products (3.33%) [1] Fund Holdings - According to data, one fund under CITIC Prudential holds a significant position in Huayou Cobalt. The CITIC Prudential CSI 800 Nonferrous Index (LOF) A (165520) reduced its holdings by 74,000 shares in the third quarter, now holding 987,500 shares, which accounts for 5.39% of the fund's net value, ranking it as the fourth-largest holding [2] - The fund has reported a floating loss of approximately 2.96 million CNY as of the latest update [2] Fund Performance - The CITIC Prudential CSI 800 Nonferrous Index (LOF) A (165520) was established on January 1, 2021, with a current scale of 1.013 billion CNY. Year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 66.88%, ranking 77 out of 4,208 in its category. Over the past year, it has returned 53.39%, ranking 130 out of 3,981, and since inception, it has returned 171.69% [2]

受盘面影响，跟踪中证新能源汽车指数的ETF跌约2%。 新能源车概念股早盘走低，赣锋锂业跌超7%，天赐材料跌超4%，三花智控、华友钴业跌超3%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▲ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159637 | 新能源车龙头ETF | 0.856 | -0.019 | -2.17% | | 516660 | 新能源车ETF基金 | 1.061 | -0.022 | -2.03% | | 159824 | 新能车ETF | 1.154 | -0.023 | -1.95% | | 515030 | 新能源车ETF | 1.730 | -0.033 | -1.87% | | 159806 | 新能源车ETF | 0.753 | -0.014 | -1.83% | 中证新能源汽车指数选取涉及锂电池、充电桩、新能源整车等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映新能源汽车 相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 有券商表示，在海内外动力和储能需求持续攀升的带动下，电力设备与电池产业链排产及出货量有望不断提升，锂电 材料价格有望企 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb51.40, implying a potential downside of 21.7% from the current price of Rmb65.610 [6][8]. Core Insights - The lithium output for Huayou Cobalt is projected to increase from 35kt in the first nine months of 2025 to 60-80kt in 2026 due to the ramp-up of the lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe. The comprehensive production cost for lithium is currently less than Rmb70k/t LCE and is expected to decrease by Rmb10k/t LCE post ramp-up [2][4]. - Nickel intermediate output is not expected to see significant year-over-year growth in 2026, as both Huayue and Huafei projects have achieved over 100% capacity utilization. The Pomalaa project is anticipated to commence operations by the end of 2026 [3]. - Cobalt output primarily comes from MHP projects in Indonesia, with expectations of strong cobalt prices due to quota policies in the DRC, although increased output from Indonesian projects may exert long-term price pressure [4]. - NCM cathode sales volume reached approximately 70kt in the first nine months of 2025, representing an 80% year-over-year increase, with expectations to reach around 100kt in 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Lithium - Lithium output is expected to rise significantly in 2026 due to the lithium sulfate project ramp-up, with production costs projected to decrease [2]. Nickel - Nickel output is stable with no significant increase expected in 2026, and the Pomalaa project is set to begin operations by year-end 2026 [3]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to policy impacts, but increased output from Indonesia may create long-term price pressures [4]. Cathode - NCM cathode sales are on a strong upward trajectory, with significant growth expected in 2025 [5].

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 证 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 11 月 23 日 降息预期短期压制，板块高景气趋 势不变 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20251117-20251121 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 3.90%，深证成指下跌 5.13%，沪深 300 下跌 3.77%，有色金属（申万）指 ...

主力资金净流出的行业有30个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金264.75亿元，其次 是电力设备行业，净流出资金为195.35亿元，净流出资金较多的还有计算机、有色金属、非银金融等行 业。 有色金属行业今日下跌5.26%，全天主力资金净流出107.83亿元，该行业所属的个股共137只，今日上涨 的有2只；下跌的有135只，跌停的有11只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有18 只，其中，净流入资金超千万元的有8只，净流入资金居首的是驰宏锌锗，今日净流入资金3803.41万 元，紧随其后的是海亮股份、新疆众和，净流入资金分别为3578.58万元、2386.28万元。有色金属行业 资金净流出个股中，资金净流出超亿元的有26只，净流出资金居前的有赣锋锂业、北方稀土、华友钴 业，净流出资金分别为10.11亿元、9.41亿元、9.00亿元。（数据宝） 有色金属行业资金流入榜 沪指11月21日下跌2.45%，申万所属行业中，跌幅居前的行业为综合、有色金属，跌幅分别为5.50%、 5.26%。有色金属行业位居今日跌幅榜第二。 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The sodium-ion battery concept sector declined by 6.54%, ranking among the top losers in the market [1] - Major stocks within this sector, such as Weike Technology, Fangda Carbon, and Xiangtan Chemical, hit the daily limit down [1] - Other notable decliners included Haike Xinyuan, Honggong Technology, and Xingyuan Materials, which also experienced significant drops [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The sodium-ion battery sector saw a net outflow of 10.037 billion yuan from main funds, with 118 stocks experiencing net outflows [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Huayou Cobalt, with a net outflow of 900 million yuan, followed by Tianci Materials and Xianlead Intelligent with net outflows of 778 million yuan and 583 million yuan, respectively [2] - Conversely, stocks like CATL, Tianji Shares, and Baichuan Shares saw net inflows of 87.54 million yuan, 85.65 million yuan, and 31.32 million yuan, respectively [2]

截至11月21日收盘，金属钴概念下跌6.57%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，赣锋锂业、海南矿业 等跌停，容百科技、寒锐钴业、中伟股份等跌幅居前。 | 600549 | 厦门钨业 | -5.76 | 2.83 | -8505.71 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601618 | 中国中冶 | -3.63 | 1.14 | -8127.47 | | 601969 | 海南矿业 | -9.98 | 3.40 | -8098.88 | | 002009 | 天奇股份 | -5.65 | 8.78 | -6296.96 | | 000758 | 中色股份 | -7.03 | 3.17 | -5535.08 | | 002266 | 浙富控股 | -5.45 | 2.34 | -5512.51 | | 000009 | 中国宝安 | -8.33 | 2.65 | -5465.50 | | 601390 | 中国中铁 | -2.16 | 0.78 | -4488.71 | | 000426 | 兴业银锡 | -5.67 | 3.09 | -4359.33 | | 301219 ...

Core Insights - The energy metals sector experienced a significant decline of 8.9% on November 21, with Hanrui Cobalt leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Sector Performance - Major stocks in the energy metals sector saw substantial losses, with several companies reporting a decline of 10% or more, including: - Sai Rui Aluminum: -10.98% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium: -10.00% [1] - Tibet Mining: -10.00% [1] - Yongshan Lithium: -10.00% [1] - Shengxin Lithium Energy: -10.00% [1] - Rongjie Co., Ltd.: -10.00% [1] - Tianqi Lithium: -10.00% [1] - Yongxing Materials: -9.99% [1] - Shengtun Mining: -9.14% [1] - Huayou Cobalt: -8.94% [1] Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net outflow of 3.769 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.551 billion yuan [1] - Specific stock capital flows indicated: - Ganfeng Lithium: Major net outflow of 10.90 billion yuan [2] - Huayou Cobalt: Major net outflow of 9.51 billion yuan [2] - Tianqi Lithium: Major net outflow of 7.81 billion yuan [2] - Shengtun Mining: Major net outflow of 2.79 billion yuan [2] - Tibet Mining: Major net outflow of 1.71 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the metals industry, with price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors, supply disruptions, and changing monetary policies, particularly regarding interest rates [2][4][6]. Group 1: Lithium Prices - In the first three quarters of 2025, the average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% purity) and lithium hydroxide (56.5% purity) was 71,339.89 CNY/ton and 67,844.81 CNY/ton, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 25.17% and 21.47% compared to the same period in 2024 [1][5]. - The price decline for lithium products has slowed in the first half of 2025, with a rebound observed in the third quarter, suggesting a potential turning point [5]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices have been supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, with gold prices experiencing a significant upward trend in the third quarter of 2025 [3][6]. - The overall labor market remains balanced despite a decline in non-farm employment, indicating potential economic weakness and rising inflation concerns, which further support precious metal prices [3]. Group 3: Industrial Metals - The third quarter of 2025 saw increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which provided support for industrial metal prices, particularly copper, amid supply disruptions from incidents like the Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia [4][6]. - The average price of LME copper in the first three quarters was 9,561.07 USD/ton, up 4.71% from 9,131.16 USD/ton in the same period of 2024, while LME aluminum prices rose by 8.44% [4]. Group 4: Energy Metals - The energy metals sector appears to have reached a bottom, with signs of a potential rebound following price declines in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The average price of cobalt in the first three quarters was 226,241.76 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.78%, driven by a significant rebound in September [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite uncertainties regarding interest rate cuts in December, the medium-term outlook for macroeconomic easing is strong, which will support non-ferrous metal prices [6]. - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Hailiang Co., Cangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, and Huayou Cobalt [6].

Core Insights - Chinese automotive companies are exploring new strategies for international expansion, particularly focusing on Indonesia for mining opportunities rather than just vehicle sales [1][38]. - The approach emphasizes long-term investment and establishing a solid foundation for future growth rather than immediate profits [2]. Group 1: Market Conditions in Indonesia - Indonesia is characterized by poor transportation infrastructure and low national income, with Java Island, which occupies only 6.6% of the country's area, housing 150 million people [5][11]. - Jakarta, the capital, has been identified as the most congested city globally, with drivers averaging 32,800 brake applications per year, significantly higher than the global average of 18,000 [6][8]. - The majority of the population relies on motorcycles for transportation due to inadequate public transport options, leading to a high prevalence of motorcycle ownership [6][10]. Group 2: Economic Landscape - A significant portion of the Indonesian population lives in poverty, with 8.47% classified as poor, spending less than 609,160 Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 200-300 RMB) per month [11][13]. - The economic structure is fragile, with 24.42% of the population unable to cover basic expenses and 49.29% classified as near-middle class, spending between 2.6 million to 6 million Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 1,200-2,800 RMB) [13]. - The wealth distribution is heavily skewed, with less than 1% of the population classified as wealthy, indicating a challenging market for high-end automotive products [13]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Chinese companies must establish local entities and meet specific capital requirements, including a minimum registration capital of 100 billion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 4.5 million RMB) [16]. - The "localization rate" requirement mandates that foreign companies produce or source a significant portion of their components locally to benefit from policy incentives [16]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Japanese automotive brands dominate the Indonesian market, with Toyota leading sales figures, while Chinese brands like BYD and Wuling rank lower in market share [17][20]. - The long-standing presence of Japanese companies provides a reference point for Chinese firms entering the market [20]. Group 5: Strategic Collaborations - Chinese automotive companies are forming partnerships with local firms to enhance market entry, such as the CKD (Completely Knocked Down) assembly model adopted by several brands [32]. - Collaborations extend to local component sourcing and employment generation, which helps in meeting localization requirements and reducing operational costs [33][37]. Group 6: Resource Opportunities - Indonesia is rich in nickel resources, essential for stainless steel and battery production, making it a strategic location for Chinese companies focused on electric vehicles [41][44]. - The partnership with Indonesia in nickel mining is crucial for securing supply chains and supporting the growth of the Chinese electric vehicle industry [44][45]. Group 7: Future Prospects - The Indonesian government aims to produce 600,000 electric vehicles by 2030, indicating a growing market for electric vehicles [39]. - The collaboration between Chinese companies and Indonesia in the mining sector could enhance the international standing of the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, in global trade [46][47].