东吴证券研报指出，华友钴业预计25年归母净利58.5~64.5亿元，同比+40.8%~55.2%，其中25Q4归母净 利16.3~22.3亿元，同比+44%~97%，环比+9%~48%；25Q4业绩亮眼、超市场预期。价格方面，25Q4镍 均价1.5万美金，环比持平，但印尼政府计划26年减少采矿配额发放，以此挺价，12月镍价从底部1.45万 美金已提升至1.68万美金，若价格维持，26年公司镍单吨利润可增厚0.1万美金至0.4万美金，对应镍可 贡献40亿+利润。三元正极方面，预计25年近10万吨，同比翻番，三元前驱体近11万吨，26年预计平稳 增长。考虑到公司受益于价格全面上涨，该行上修25-27年归母净利润由60/90/109亿元至62/107/124亿 元，同增50%/72%/15%，对应PE为22x/13x/11x，给予26年20xPE，目标价113元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth and precious metals sectors are experiencing significant price increases, driven by supply constraints and strong demand, particularly in the context of China's regulatory measures and global economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 1.88%, with notable gains in individual stocks such as Rare Earth (600259) up 10.00%, Shengtun Mining (600711) up 9.01%, and Xingye Silver Tin (000426) up 7.57% [1]. - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) increased by 2.01%, marking its fifth consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 2.13 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, domestic rare earth supply regulation is expected to smooth out the issuance of quotas, while overseas supply is projected to continue growing as new projects come online [2]. - Demand for rare earths is anticipated to remain strong, particularly from the electric vehicle sector and robotics, further emphasizing the scarcity of resources and potentially driving prices higher [2]. Group 3: Gold and Silver Market Insights - Global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, which supports the ongoing bullish trend in gold prices, especially during periods of interest rate cuts [2]. - Silver ETF holdings are expected to rise significantly by 2025, driven by its financial attributes, which will likely contribute to an increase in silver prices [2]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) include Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Northern Rare Earth (600111), collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [3].

有色ETF基金紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业 (601899)、洛阳钼业(603993)、北方稀土(600111)、华友钴业(603799)、中国铝业(601600)、赣锋锂业 (002460)、云铝股份(000807)、山东黄金(600547)、中金黄金(600489)、天齐锂业(002466)，前十大权重 股合计占比51.65%。 有色ETF基金(159880)，场外联接(A：021296；C：021297；I：022886)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 截至2026年1月7日 10:16，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨1.08%，成分股中稀有色(600259)上 涨7.25%，兴业银锡(000426)上涨6.63%，华友钴业(603799)上涨6.2 ...

2）印尼淡水河谷公司因2026年度工作计划未获官方批准，暂停镍矿开采业务，虽主要矿区仍正常运营，但市场供给收缩预期强化。 一、行情 1月7日，有色镍板块集体大涨。中国一重、格林美（炸）涨停，中伟股份涨超10%，芳源股份、伟明环保、兴业银锡、天奇股份、华友钴业、盛屯矿业等集 体大涨。 | 有色・镍 +4.65% | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 理■ 海内外镍期货大涨 | | | | | | | | 股票名称 | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = | 涨停时间 = | 换手率 = | 流通市值 = | 解读 | | | | | | | | 公司构建了"煤资源 -- 前驱体-正极材料 | | 格林美 | 9.50 | +9.95% | 10:15:21 | 8.57% | 483.14亿 | 链,在印尼建成15万金吨/年镍资源产能 | | 002340.SZ | | | | | | 万金吨镍/年,参股产能为4万金吨镍/年 | | | | | | | | 排名前3 | | | | | | | | 公司镍系三元前驱体出货量连续五年全 | ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月7日，早盘有色·镍概念震荡拉升，中伟股份涨超15%，格林美逼近涨停，伟明环保、 华友钴业、寒锐钴业、盛屯矿业冲高。 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The three-year fixed deposit product with an interest rate of 2.2% was officially removed on January 5, with all deposit rates decreasing by 20 basis points [1] - Multiple small and medium-sized banks, including Wuding Xingfu Village Bank and Xuwen Rural Commercial Bank, have recently announced adjustments to their deposit rates, indicating a trend of flexible management based on individual bank conditions [1] Group 2: Currency and Asset Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the USD rose again on January 6, remaining above the 7 yuan mark, continuing a trend of appreciation that has lasted nearly nine months [1] - Analysts believe that the strengthening of the RMB is beneficial for foreign capital inflow, improving liquidity and risk appetite in the A-share market, with three asset categories highlighted for investment: aviation, paper manufacturing, and high-growth sectors like computing and electronics [1] Group 3: Company Performance Forecasts - Eleven companies are expected to achieve their highest net profits in the past decade by 2025, with Zijin Mining and Luxshare Precision leading with lower limits of 51 billion yuan and over 16.5 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to be strong due to supply constraints and structural demand growth, with companies like China Uranium Industry also anticipated to reach peak profits [2] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Price Surge - Lithium carbonate prices have surged significantly, with a 7.74% increase on January 5 and an 8.99% increase on January 6, reaching 137,900 yuan per ton, driven by tightening supply expectations and rising demand [3] - The price increase is linked to uncertainties in lithium supply and growing demand for energy storage, with market analysts suggesting limited downside potential for lithium prices [3] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Yunnan Metallurgical Group is publicly offering a 3.18% stake in Cheng Tai Insurance for a base price of 184 million yuan, marking the third attempt to transfer this stake [6] - Four companies, including Suzhou Shangshun Technology, have initiated listing counseling as of January 6, indicating ongoing activity in the capital markets [6] Group 6: Stock Market Movements - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.99%, driven by AI-related demand, while the S&P 500 and Dow reached historical highs [17] - Commodity prices, particularly metals, have seen significant increases, with copper and nickel reaching record highs, reflecting strong market conditions [17]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 沈右荣 "钴王"华友钴业（603799.SH）继续大赚。 1月5日晚，华友钴业发布年度业绩预增公告，2025年度，公司预计实现归母净利润58.50亿元至64.50亿元，与上年 同期（法定披露数据）相比，预计增长40.80%至55.24%。 2025年，华友钴业上游资源端印尼华飞项目实现达产超产，华越项目持续稳产高产，公司MHP原料自给率进一步 提高。同时，公司下游材料业务恢复增长，技术创新能力明显增强，"产品领先、成本领先"竞争战略成效进一步 凸显，公司产业一体化经营优势持续释放。其次，受益于钴、碳酸锂的价格回升，公司产品盈利能力提升。此 外，公司持续推动管理变革，大力推进降本增效，向管理要效益，运营效率持续提升。 针对2025年盈利大幅增长，华友钴业解释称，主要受益于公司产业一体化经营优势的持续释放、钴锂等金属价格 的回升，以及公司管理变革、降本增效的深入推进。 2025年前三季度，华友钴业经营业绩强劲增长势头已经显现，实现归母净利润42.16亿元，同比增长39.59%。 华友钴业的财务状况明显改善。截至2025年9月末，公司资产负债率59.44%，较当年初下降4.94个百分点 ...

业绩增长主要源于：（1）镍湿法产能逐步释放，印尼华飞项目实现达产超产，华越项目持续稳产高产； （2）下游材料业务恢复增长，锂电材料自上游到下游一体化带来的优势逐步释放，"产品领先、成本领 先"的竞争战略成效凸显。（3）钴价、锂价上涨，2025Q4 MB钴价（标准级）均价为23美元/磅，环比 +45%；2025Q4国内碳酸锂均价8.8万元/吨，环比+21%。 项目：12万吨金属镍Pomalaa项目已开工，硫酸锂项目有望进一步降本 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 华友钴业于2026年1月5日公告2025年业绩预增公告，预计2025年实现归属于上市公司股东净利润58.5-64.5 亿元，同比增长40.8%-55.2%；实现归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益 ...

2026 年 1 月 6 日 公司研究 一体化产业链优势凸显，2025Q4 单季度净利润有望创历史新高 ——华友钴业（603799.SH）2025 年业绩预告点评 要点 事件 :华友钴业于 2026 年 1 月 5 日公告 2025 年业绩预增公告，预计 2025 年实 现归属于上市公司股东净利润 58.5-64.5 亿元，同比增长 40.8%-55.2%；实现归 属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益净利润 57-63 亿元，同比增长 47.6%-66%。 2025Q4 预计可实现归母净利润 16.3-22.3 亿元，中值为 19.3 亿元，环比+28%， 同比+70%。 点评： 业绩：印尼华飞镍项目投产，一体化产业链优势释放。业绩增长主要源于：（1） 镍湿法产能逐步释放，印尼华飞项目实现达产超产，华越项目持续稳产高产；（2） 下游材料业务恢复增长，锂电材料自上游到下游一体化带来的优势逐步释放， "产品领先、成本领先"的竞争战略成效凸显。（3）钴价、锂价上涨，2025Q4 MB 钴价（标准级）均价为 23 美元/磅，环比+45%；2025Q4 国内碳酸锂均价 8.8 万元/吨，环比+21%。 项目：12 万吨金属 ...

1月6日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报4083.67点，上涨1.5%，深证成指收报14022.55点，上涨1.4%，创业板指收报3319.29点，上涨0.75%，北证50 指数上涨1.82%。A股市场合计成交28324.97亿元，较上一交易日增加2650.87亿元。 1. A股市场全天主力资金净流出176.68亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出147.71亿元，尾盘净流入18.05亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流出176.68亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-6 | -176. 68 | -147.71 | 18. 05 | 33. 67 | | 2026-1-5 | -62.98 | -54. 18 | 17. 34 | 90. 80 | | 2025-12-31 | -270. 79 | -129.42 | -36. 63 | -63.89 | | 2025-12-30 | -238.28 | ...