钴专题报告解读 20250624 摘要 刚果金出口禁令叠加印尼新增供应有限，预计 2025 年全球钴市场将出 现 3 至 4 万吨的短缺，前期过剩库存虽有缓解，但主要集中于大型贸易 商和冶炼厂手中。 短期内，终端企业补库存和上游惜售或推动钴价上涨至 30 万元/吨；中 长期看，刚果金政府或通过政策和配额制支撑钴价，预期价格中枢在 25 万至 30 万元/吨。 全球钴资源主要集中在刚果金（储量占比 56%）、澳大利亚（16%） 和印尼（6%），中国对外依存度高，洛阳钼业、嘉能可等大型企业掌握 市场控制力。 洛阳钼业钴产量增长迅速，2024 年达 11.42 万吨，同比增长超 100%，成为全球第一大钴矿供应商，占据刚果金 52%的市场份额。 印尼湿法镍产能快速扩张，2024 年已建成约 40 万吨镍金属产能，伴生 约 3 万吨钴，预计 2025 年将增至 4 至 5 万吨，成为重要的新兴供应来 源。 Q&A 近期钴市场的供需情况如何？ 近期钴市场的供需情况发生了显著变化。2025 年 2 月 22 日，刚果金政府宣布 禁止钴原料出口四个月，并在 6 月 21 日再次将禁令延长三个月。这一禁令对 国内钴原料市场产 ...

2025.06. 24 本文字数：1823，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 钴价上演"过山车"行情。 6月24日，钴均价单日暴跌6000元至25万元/吨。而刚果（金）日前的出口禁令延长，引发的上涨预 期 仅 维 持 可 一 日 。 截 至 收 盘 ， A 股 中 的 腾 远 钴 业 （ 301219.SZ ） 收 跌 3.5% ， 华 友 钴 业 （603799.SH）、寒锐钴业（300618.SZ）跟跌。前一交易日，腾远钴业涨超15%，寒锐钴业涨超 9%。 一位矿业人士对第一财经分析称，钴价上演"过山车"行情，这一剧烈波动背后，是市场对政策预期透 支与高库存压力的集中释放。 早前的2月24日，刚果（金）首次暂停钴出口四个月，钴价从约16万元/吨一路上涨至目前的25万元/ 吨。而在近期，该国又将禁令将延长至7个月。行业对此的共识是，出口禁令只能带来阶段性的供给 收缩。 全球第一大钴生产商洛阳钼业24日对第一财经称，该公司TFM及KFM矿区生产运营活动正常进行， 预计该临时禁令的延长不会对经营业绩产生重大影响，并认为稳定、健康的市场环境，是所有利益相 关方共同的愿望，有利于行业长远可持续发展以及钴 ...

刚果（金）钴出口禁令延长三个月导致钴价剧烈波动 钴价上演"过山车"行情。 6月24日，钴均价单日暴跌6000元至25万元/吨。而刚果（金）日前的出口禁令延长，引发的上涨预期仅 维持可一日。截至收盘，A股中的腾远钴业（301219.SZ）收跌3.5%，华友钴业（603799.SH）、寒锐钴 业（300618.SZ）跟跌。前一交易日，腾远钴业涨超15%，寒锐钴业涨超9%。 一位矿业人士对第一财经分析称，钴价上演"过山车"行情，这一剧烈波动背后，是市场对政策预期透支 与高库存压力的集中释放。 早前的2月24日，刚果（金）首次暂停钴出口四个月，钴价从约16万元/吨一路上涨至目前的25万元/ 吨。而在近期，该国又将禁令将延长至7个月。行业对此的共识是，出口禁令只能带来阶段性的供给收 缩。 全球第一大钴生产商洛阳钼业24日对第一财经称，该公司TFM及KFM矿区生产运营活动正常进行，预 计该临时禁令的延长不会对经营业绩产生重大影响，并认为稳定、健康的市场环境，是所有利益相关方 共同的愿望，有利于行业长远可持续发展以及钴产品需求的持续增长。 禁令延期冲击波，全球钴市持续震荡 钴作为电动车电池的关键原材料，在高科技产业、新能源 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 1% at one point, closing at 3381.58 points, up 0.65% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10048.39 points, up 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 2017.63 points, up 0.39% [1] - The total market turnover reached 114.69 billion yuan, an increase of 55.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Digital Currency Sector - The digital currency concept stocks surged, with the sector ranking third among industry concepts, closing up 5.2% for the day and 10.44% over the past month [2] - Notable individual stock performances included Youbuxun and Sifang Jingchuang, both hitting the 20% daily limit up, while Tianyuandike rose by 14.56% [2] - The recent surge in the digital currency sector is attributed to favorable news, particularly the launch of cross-border payment services between mainland China and Hong Kong [2][3] Oil and Shipping Sectors - The oil sector showed strong performance, with the oil and gas extraction and service sector rising 3.15% and a monthly increase of 27.52% [4] - Key stocks included Maohua Shihua and Zhun Oil, both achieving consecutive daily limit ups [4] - The shipping sector also saw gains, with stocks like Ningbo Shipping and Lianyungang hitting daily limits, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4][5] Energy Metals Sector - The energy metals sector, particularly cobalt, experienced significant gains, with stocks like Tengyuan Cobalt rising over 15% [6] - The Democratic Republic of Congo extended its temporary ban on cobalt exports, which is expected to tighten supply and increase price expectations [6] - Analysts predict that the extended ban will lead to a substantial supply shortage in the cobalt market, potentially triggering a new price surge [6]

智通财经记者 | 高菁 刚果(金)战略矿产市场监管控制局6月21日宣布了上述消息。所谓"钴出口禁令"由刚果(金)在今年2月发 布。在当时的声明中，刚果(金)称，为应对全球钴市场供应过剩的局面，将暂停钴出口四个月。而此次 禁令有效期将延长至七个月。 受此消息影响，能源金属板块走高，截至6月23日收盘，腾远钴业(301219.SZ)股价上涨15.42%，寒锐钴 业(300618.SZ)、华友钴业(603799.SH)分别上涨9.31%、6.35%，天华新能(300390.SZ)、天齐锂业 (002466.SZ)、赣锋锂业(002460.SZ)等跟涨。 刚果(金)的钴出口临时禁令还要再持续三个月。 与此同时，钴价也有所上涨。上海钢联数据显示，6月23日，也就是禁令延长消息发布后的首个工作 日，电解钴均价报24.4万元/吨，较前一工作日上涨8500元。 钴是一种银白色的小金属，在自然界中多与镍钴铁密切伴生存在，具有铁磁性和延展性，电化学性能良 好，可应用于电池材料、磁性材料、化学制品等多个领域。 钴行业中的主要产品有钴盐(包括氯化钴和硫酸钴等)、钴氧化物(包括四氧化三钴和氧化钴等)、电解钴 及钴粉，上述产品均可称为精 ...

Market Overview - On June 23, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with a total trading volume of 1,146.922 billion yuan, an increase of over 55 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday [1] - A total of 84 stocks hit the daily limit up [1] Concept Sectors - The military equipment restructuring concept led the gains, with stocks like Hunan Tianyan and Changcheng Military Industry hitting the limit up [1] - Other notable sectors included electronic ID cards, digital currency, and cross-border payments, which also saw significant increases [1] Institutional Trading - According to statistics, institutional seats on the Dragon and Tiger list had a net buying of 54 million yuan on June 23, with 11 stocks being net bought and 8 stocks being net sold [1] - The stocks with the highest net buying included Microchip Biotech, Shenzhou Cell, and Haike New Source, with net buying amounts accounting for 12.34%, 11.15%, and 3.11% of the day's trading volume, respectively [1][2] - The stocks with the highest net selling included Rongzhi Rixin, Youyou Food, and Beifang Changlong, with net selling amounts accounting for 29.30%, 19.05%, and 2.52% of the day's trading volume, respectively [1][2] Northbound Capital - On June 23, nine stocks received net buying from northbound funds, with Jinlongyu leading at 85.9124 million yuan [3] - Other stocks with significant net buying included Rongfa Nuclear Power and Boshang Optoelectronics, both exceeding 40 million yuan [3] Institutional Ratings - A total of 15 stocks received buy ratings from institutions, with an average increase of 1.75% for these stocks, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [5] - The computer industry was the most favored, with three stocks making it to the institutional buy rating list, while the coal and electric equipment industries also saw two stocks each on the list [5] Corporate Announcements - Tianyi Ma plans to acquire 100% equity of a target company specializing in IoT smart hardware and SaaS cloud platform solutions through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment [8] - Zhongda An is planning a stock issuance to specific investors, which may lead to a change in the actual controller of the company [8] - Guotou Zhonglu is planning a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of shares from China Electronics Engineering Design Institute [8] - Huasheng Co. is planning to acquire 100% of Shenzhen Yixin Technology Co., which operates multiple high-performance computing centers [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to significantly impact the cobalt market, leading to potential supply shortages and increased prices [2][3]. - Cobalt metal stocks showed active trading, with companies like Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt experiencing notable price increases, indicating market optimism regarding cobalt prices [2]. - The DRC's regulatory body announced the extension of the cobalt export ban due to high market inventories, which will halt all cobalt exports from the country until September 22 [2]. Group 2 - Following the initial cobalt export ban in February, cobalt prices peaked at 250,000 yuan per ton, but later declined to 230,000 yuan per ton due to high historical inventory levels and unclear future policies [3]. - The extension of the cobalt export ban is expected to raise market expectations for cobalt prices, potentially leading to a supply shortage and initiating a second wave of price increases [3].

消息面上，刚果金公布，2025年6月21日起，战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措 施，鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本决定生效之日起再延长三个月，适用于 刚果金所有源自采矿的钴出口，无论其来自工业、半工业、小规模还是手工开采。2025年2月22日当地 出台暂停钴出口的第001/ARECOMS/2025号决定。 数据显示，央行正继续增持黄金。中国人民银行、国家外汇管理局公布5月官方储备资产数据。截至 2025年5月末，我国黄金储备规模报7383万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，实现连续7个月增长。多家机构认 为，当前形势下，市场参与方更有动力持续增配。 有色ETF基金紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 数据显示，截至2025年5月30日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业 (601899)、北方稀土(600111)、中国铝业(601600)、洛阳钼业(603 ...

6月23日，A股三大指数集体低开。截至发稿，创业板指和深证成指翻红。北证50指数涨近0.5%，科创50指数涨近1%。 盘面上，油气、航运等题材走强；机器人、短剧、IP经济、EDA、算力、稀土永磁、AI应用概念股走弱。 恒生指数和恒生科技指数低开。京东集团-SW跌近2%领跌蓝筹。油气股涨幅居前，山东墨龙（002490）、MI能源一度 涨近15%。三只新股今日上市，药捷安康-B盘中大涨逾72%，佰泽医疗涨超22%。 亚太市场方面，日经225指数、韩国综合指数、新加坡海峡指数、澳洲标普200指数下跌近1%。 油气股、航运股活跃 早盘，油气股再度活跃，茂化实华（000637）3连板，神开股份（002278）涨停，科力股份、新锦动力（300157）、通 源石油（300164）等涨幅居前。消息面上，早盘WTI原油主力期货一度涨超6%。 港股方面，航运及港口股也逆势走高,截至发稿，德翔海运涨超17%,中远海能、象兴国际涨超7%。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海 峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 有色钴概念股拉升 有色钴概念股震荡走强，截 ...

固态电池概念股持续拉升，泰和科技（300801）涨超10%，湘潭电化（002125）此前涨停，国轩高科 （002074）涨超7%，华正新材（603186）、华友钴业（603799）跟涨。 ...