Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [5]. Core Views - The Middle East geopolitical situation is a key factor affecting global aluminum prices, with recent production cuts and damages in Middle Eastern aluminum plants expected to provide upward momentum for prices [3][40]. - The domestic copper market shows decent fundamentals, with potential support for copper prices as some smelters may enter maintenance periods [3][34]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the speed of steel inventory reduction, which could boost steel prices if seasonal demand expectations are validated [5][17]. Industry Summary Steel - The production of five major steel products has slightly decreased, with total inventory also declining, indicating a potential for price increases if demand strengthens [17][25]. - As of March 27, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86.63%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points from the previous week [22]. Copper - The global refined copper market experienced a surplus of 17,000 tons in January 2026, down from a surplus of 168,000 tons in December 2025, indicating a tightening supply situation [34]. - On March 27, the LME copper spot price was $12,000 per ton, reflecting a 0.20% increase from the previous week [37]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum spot price on March 27 was $3,300 per ton, a decrease of 1.11% from the previous week, while domestic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate [41]. - The report anticipates that the aluminum price may remain strong in the short term due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the gradual release of domestic demand [40]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are currently under pressure due to high oil prices, but there is potential for a rebound if geopolitical tensions ease or inflation concerns diminish [46]. - As of March 27, the COMEX gold closing price was $4,521.30 per ounce, a 0.65% increase from the previous week [46]. New Energy Metals - Concerns over potential production cuts in Australian lithium mines due to energy issues may lead to a supply shortage, with lithium carbonate prices rising to 159,500 yuan per ton [52]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor production dynamics in Australia and export policies in Zimbabwe [51]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The rare earth market is facing pressure due to weak demand from downstream enterprises, with prices expected to remain volatile [66]. - As of March 27, the price of light rare earth oxide neodymium praseodymium was 712,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.42% increase from the previous week [66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 2.78%, ranking first among all primary industries, with energy metals up 13.38% and industrial metals up 1.37% [14][1] - The precious metals market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, with the Turkish central bank's gold sales exacerbating market volatility [4][48] - Industrial metals prices rebounded as signals of US-Iran negotiations emerged, alleviating previous panic [28][27] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.09%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 2.78%, outperforming the index by 3.87 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals and small metals performed well, while precious metals faced declines [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices increased with LME copper at $12,141 per ton (up 2.59%) and SHFE copper at ¥95,930 per ton (up 1.26%). Domestic smelting plant repairs led to a rapid decline in social inventory, down 14.86% to 519,500 tons [32][2] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose to $3,285 per ton (up 2.90%), while SHFE aluminum fell to ¥23,935 per ton (down 0.35%). Supply risks increased due to attacks on facilities in Bahrain and the UAE [38][39] - **Zinc**: Prices rose with LME zinc at $3,107 per ton (up 1.65%) and SHFE zinc at ¥23,380 per ton (up 1.94%). Both LME and SHFE inventories decreased [41] - **Tin**: LME tin prices increased to $46,000 per ton (up 7.38%) and SHFE tin to ¥362,460 per ton (up 5.83%) due to improved downstream demand [45] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell slightly, with COMEX gold at $4,489.70 per ounce (down 0.05%) and SHFE gold at ¥998.66 per gram (down 3.90%). The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate hike expectations [48][4] - The Turkish central bank sold 58.4 tons of gold, impacting market stability [48] - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a simultaneous rise in gold and oil prices, indicating a return of gold's inflation-hedging and safe-haven attributes [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global lithium resources are near a tight balance. With the expansion of the demand base, the available inventory days will show a downward trend, and the lithium price center should rise marginally [105][116]. - In Q2 2026, both supply and demand of lithium carbonate will increase. It is still expected to reduce inventory, but the reduction amplitude may decline compared to Q1. In Q3, if the supply from Zimbabwe and Jianxiaowo resumes, inventory may accumulate, but inventory reduction is expected again at the end of the year due to export rush [105][116]. - The price of lithium carbonate in Q2 2026 may fluctuate widely between 125,000 - 250,000 yuan/ton, with a center around 140,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [116]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q4 2025, the explosion of energy - storage demand and the less - than - expected resumption of production at Jianxiaowo drove the rapid increase of lithium carbonate prices. In Q1 2026, the market continued to rise sharply and then entered a wide - range shock [7]. - In early and mid - January 2026, due to multiple factors such as Trump's attack on Venezuela, cathode material manufacturers' joint production cut to support prices, the implementation of the export tax - rebate cancellation policy, and the resurgence of the Jiangxi mining license issue, the market price soared from 125,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to a high of 189,000 yuan/ton, a 51% increase [7]. - From mid - to late January to early February 2026, due to exchange macro - regulation and Trump's nomination of Wash, which triggered concerns about balance - sheet reduction, the market price dropped to a minimum of 124,000 yuan/ton by early February, a 34% decline [7]. - After the Spring Festival to late February 2026, downstream demand recovered after the Spring Festival, and SMM inventory decreased significantly for several consecutive weeks. On February 25th, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all lithium ore exports, and the next day the market price jumped up, reaching a maximum of 188,000 yuan/ton, with a 52% increase in this stage [7]. - Since late February 2026, after the US - Israel's strike on Iran on February 28th and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the non - ferrous metals sector fell collectively. Subsequently, the market price fluctuated widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the continuous postponement of Zimbabwe's resumption time has again raised market concerns about supply [7]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Global Lithium Resource Production - In 2025, the global lithium resource production was about 1.675 million tons LCE. In 2026, it is expected to be about 2.207 million tons LCE, with an increase of 532,000 tons [8][9]. - In Q1 - Q4 2026, the global lithium resource production is expected to be 478,000 tons, 527,000 tons, 590,000 tons, and 613,000 tons LCE respectively [8]. 3.2.2 Regional Supply - **Australia**: The annual production of Australian mines will increase by 60,000 tons to 520,000 tons LCE. Some mines have adjusted their production guidance upwards, while some mines are currently shut down or plan to restart [8][10][12]. - **America**: The annual production of American spodumene will increase by 11,000 tons to 84,000 tons LCE, and the annual production of American salt lakes will increase by 84,000 tons to 510,000 tons LCE [8][9][15]. - **Africa**: The annual production in Africa will increase by 140,000 tons to 380,000 tons LCE. The main increments come from pre - built mines, and some new mines are planned to be put into production [8][9][16]. - **China**: The annual production of Chinese spodumene will increase by 55,000 tons to 132,000 tons LCE, the annual production of Chinese salt lakes will increase by 100,000 tons to 260,000 tons LCE, and the annual production of Chinese mica will increase by 50,000 tons to 195,000 tons LCE [8][9][24]. 3.2.3 Supply Disruptions - On February 25th, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports. It is expected to affect the monthly supply by 12,000 tons LCE, and the resumption time is still to be determined [22]. 3.3 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 New Energy Vehicle Market - **China**: In 2025, the domestic sales of Chinese passenger cars were 12.996 million, with a penetration rate of 54%. In 2026, it is expected to be 13.37 million, with a penetration rate peak of 65%. The domestic sales of Chinese commercial vehicles were 863,100 in 2025, and it is expected to be 1.232 million in 2026, with a penetration rate peak of 47% [42][46]. - **Europe**: It is expected that the high - growth trend in 2026 will continue, with a year - on - year increase of 30% to 5.27 million vehicles [54]. - **North America**: It is estimated that the sales of new energy vehicles in North America will decline by 10% to 1.57 million vehicles in 2026 [55]. 3.3.2 Energy - Storage Market - **China**: In 2024 - 2025, the winning bids for new energy storage in China were 171 GWh and 420 GWh respectively, with year - on - year increases of 52% and 145%. In 2025, the new installed capacity was 197 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 84%. In 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [68]. - **USA**: In 2025, the new installed capacity of energy storage in the US was 50.99 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 40%. It is expected to increase by 27% and 3% in 2026 - 2027 [73]. - **Europe**: In 2025, the new installed capacity of electrical energy storage in Europe was 27 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 45%. It is expected to increase by 46% and 42% in 2026 - 2027 [73]. 3.3.3 Cathode Material and Cell Market - In January - February 2026, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 745,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55%; the production of ternary cathode materials was 152,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 48% [86]. - In January - February 2026, the production of power cells was 222 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 31%; the production of energy - storage cells was 119 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 91% [86]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Overseas**: The inventory days of Australian mines have dropped to about 1 month [91]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of February, the lithium ore inventory of domestic sample lithium salt plants was 114,000 tons LCE, with inventory days of 1.4 months, and the mine inventory was only 8,000 tons LCE. The inventory of domestic spodumene is about 140,000 tons LCE, and the inventory days have dropped to about 2 months [91]. - **Market Inventory**: The overall/upstream/downstream/mid - stream SMM inventory as of March 26th was 99,000/17,000/46,000/36,000 tons respectively, with inventory days of 27.9/4.9/13.1/10 days respectively. There is also off - balance - sheet inventory, but its magnitude has a large variance [92]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - For new energy vehicle enterprises, when the lithium carbonate price rises to 206,800 yuan/ton, the net profit of leading new energy vehicle enterprises will reach zero. High costs may lead to negative demand feedback in the long run [111][112]. - For the energy - storage market, after the implementation of the capacity - price mechanism policy, taking Shanxi Province as an example, the internal rate of return (IRR) of energy storage can reach 7.85%. If the energy storage only needs to meet the minimum rate of return of 6.5%, the acceptable increase in the cell price is 0.05 yuan/Wh, and the acceptable increase in the lithium carbonate price is 100,000 yuan/ton [115].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The report highlights that high oil prices driven by Middle Eastern conflicts are expected to strengthen the demand for lithium as an energy alternative, indicating a potential upside for lithium prices [2] - Nickel prices are supported by supply uncertainties due to delays in the approval process for nickel mining quotas in Indonesia, which may lead to a tight supply situation [2][17] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to ongoing supply uncertainties from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with expectations of structural tightness in cobalt supply [3][18] - The report notes a significant increase in carbonated lithium prices, driven by supply disruptions and rising demand expectations, particularly in the context of the electric vehicle market [21] - The tungsten market is expected to see continued price increases due to long-term supply tightness and strategic importance in global supply chains [24] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry - As of March 27, LME nickel spot price was $17,010 per ton, up 1.43% from March 20, with total LME nickel inventory at 281,574 tons, down 0.68% [2] - Cobalt prices are under pressure but are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the DRC, with the current electrolytic cobalt price at 430,500 CNY per ton [3][18] Lithium Industry - Domestic carbonate lithium futures closed at 168,400 CNY per ton, up 17.09% from March 20, indicating strong demand and supply constraints [21] - The report emphasizes the impact of geopolitical tensions on lithium demand, particularly in the context of energy security [21] Tungsten Industry - The report indicates that tungsten prices are expected to continue rising due to supply constraints and strategic importance, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 1,001,000 CNY per ton [24] Antimony Industry - Antimony prices have seen a slight decline, but supply constraints are expected to provide support for future prices, with average antimony ingot prices at 165,500 CNY per ton [7][19] Uranium Industry - The report notes that uranium supply is expected to remain tight, supporting prices, with the global uranium market price at $71.3 per pound [15][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - High oil prices are benefiting the renewable energy sector, with expectations for increased demand and profitability in lithium batteries [1]. - The report highlights significant growth in energy storage and electric vehicle markets, driven by government policies and technological advancements [4][5]. Industry Trends - The energy storage sector is experiencing robust growth, with countries like Croatia and Spain investing heavily in solar and storage projects. The report anticipates a global energy storage installation growth of over 60% in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 30-50% from 2027 to 2029 [4][5]. - In the electric vehicle market, there was a notable decline in retail sales in early March, but expectations for recovery are set for April, with a projected annual growth of around 3% [4][5]. - The report also notes a significant increase in lithium prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 158,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 4.8% increase [4]. Company Performance - Notable company performances include: - Ningde Times: 2025 revenue of 804 billion CNY, a 4% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 32.6 billion CNY, down 19% [4]. - BYD: 2025 revenue of 804 billion CNY, with a net profit of 32.6 billion CNY, reflecting a 19% decrease [4]. - Other companies like Ganfeng Lithium and CATL are also highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [4][5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on companies leading in energy storage and lithium battery production, such as Ningde Times, Ganfeng Lithium, and others, due to their strong growth prospects and market leadership [4][5]. - It emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and government policies in driving the growth of the renewable energy sector, particularly in energy storage and electric vehicles [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including 洛阳钼业, 云铝股份, 华友钴业, among others [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in trading focus from demand to supply, indicating that the timing for allocation has arrived [1]. - The industrial metals market is experiencing a recovery in demand, with active transactions noted in the domestic market, while supply-side risks are emerging due to geopolitical tensions [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and market dynamics, particularly in the context of rising energy prices and geopolitical risks affecting supply chains [8]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes that the SW Nonferrous Index increased by 2.46% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.10% and 1.41%, respectively [8]. - Key companies such as 盛屯矿业, 洛阳钼业, and 云铝股份 are recommended for investment due to their strong performance and favorable market conditions [8]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices increased by 2.90% to $3,285 per ton, while copper prices rose by 2.59% to $12,141 per ton [13]. - The report indicates that domestic demand for copper is recovering, with a notable decrease in inventory levels, suggesting a positive outlook for copper prices [40]. - Zinc prices also saw an increase of 1.65%, closing at $3,107 per ton, supported by declining inventory levels [50]. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - Gold prices are projected to rise due to inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, with the report maintaining a bullish outlook on gold as a hedge against inflation [76]. - Silver prices have shown volatility, with the report suggesting that industrial demand may continue to be affected by the photovoltaic sector [76]. - The report highlights the tightening supply of cobalt and lithium, with recommendations for companies like 华友钴业 and 赣锋锂业 due to their strong market positions [76].

Core Insights - The main focus of the news is on the significant inflow of capital into specific stocks, highlighting the top 20 stocks by principal capital inflow as of March 27, with notable performances in various sectors [1][2][3] Group 1: Top Stocks by Capital Inflow - Ganfeng Lithium leads with a capital inflow of 1.532 billion, showing a price increase of 10% [2] - Shenjian Co. follows with an inflow of 0.836 billion and a price increase of 10% [2] - Dongfang New Energy has an inflow of 0.802 billion, with a price increase of 10.03% [2] - Hengrui Medicine reports an inflow of 0.766 billion and a price increase of 6.93% [2] - Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) sees an inflow of 0.689 billion, with a price increase of 3.44% [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The metals sector, particularly highlighted by Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, shows strong capital inflows, indicating robust investor interest [1][2][3] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Hengrui Medicine, also demonstrates significant capital inflow, reflecting positive market sentiment [2] - The electric equipment sector, with companies like CATL and Tianqi Materials, shows moderate capital inflows, suggesting steady growth potential [2][3] Group 3: Additional Notable Stocks - Zhongjin Lingnan has an inflow of 0.643 billion with a price increase of 6.92% [2] - Tianshi Materials reports an inflow of 0.593 billion and a price increase of 3.64% [2] - Zijin Mining has an inflow of 0.530 billion, with a modest price increase of 1.18% [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed signs of recovery on March 27, with the non-ferrous metal sector rising, particularly the ETF Huatai (159652), which increased by over 2% [1] - Key stocks within the non-ferrous ETF Huatai saw significant gains, including Yunnan Zhenye and Yongxing Materials hitting the daily limit, while Ganfeng Lithium rose over 6% [3] - The top ten constituent stocks of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai include Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium, with varying increases in their stock prices [4] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has influenced metal prices, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 3.85% and LME copper down by 1.64% due to easing risk aversion following the U.S. decision to delay military action against Iran [5] - However, metal prices reversed in the morning session, with COMEX gold futures rising over 1% and LME copper increasing by 0.53% [6] - Analysts from Guojin Securities suggest that the pressure on non-ferrous metals is gradually easing, with market expectations for U.S. monetary policy being overly pessimistic compared to the Federal Reserve's stance [8] Group 3 - The global trend of "de-dollarization" is accelerating, supporting long-term gold prices as central banks continue to buy gold, marking 16 consecutive years of net purchases [8] - Industrial metals are expected to perform well in the long term due to a tightening supply-demand balance, driven by global infrastructure investments and low LME copper inventories [9] - The lithium market is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with significant growth expected in global electric vehicle sales and energy storage demand [10] Group 4 - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai (159652) is highlighted for its comprehensive coverage of various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, positioning it to benefit from the super cycle in non-ferrous metals [10] - The ETF has a high concentration of gold and copper, with 45% combined content, making it a leading choice in its category [12] - The ETF's performance has been driven by earnings rather than valuation, with a PE ratio of 32.30, reflecting a 45% decrease compared to five years ago, indicating a favorable valuation [14]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the decline in the performance of the Huaxia Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650), which opened down 2.08% at 1.840 yuan on March 27 [1][2] - Major holdings of the ETF, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth, also experienced declines, with Zijin Mining down 1.84% and Luoyang Molybdenum down 1.54% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-Industry Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., with a return of 87.78% since its inception on June 9, 2021, but a recent one-month return of -17.31% [2] Group 2 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating potential upward momentum for certain stocks [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which opened down by 1.71% at 0.979 yuan on March 27 [1][2] - Major holdings of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF experienced declines, including Zijin Mining down 1.84%, Luoyang Molybdenum down 1.54%, Northern Rare Earth down 2.06%, and others [1][2] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has a performance benchmark of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Huabao Fund Management Co., with a return of 98.98% since its establishment on March 12, 2021, but a recent one-month return of -17.30% [1][2]