行业研究丨深度报告丨运输 [Table_Title] 岁暮回暖，超越季律 ——交运行业 2025 年四季度投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望 2025 年四季度，我们看好四类投资机会：1）物流：政策驱动快递"反内卷"，四季度及 明年利润弹性可观。物流企业出海进入 1-N 的新阶段；2）航空：获益于商务回暖，出行需求逐 步爬坡，叠加中长期供给刚性收紧，航油成本改善明显，行业有望迎来收入与成本共振；3）海 运：关注季节性+非季节性因素带来的共振：1、OPEC+产能恢复，VLCC 供给约束持续，油运 Q4 景气可期；2、散运：四季度西芒杜投产将提振行业上行预期；3、集运：关税扰动下远洋集 运需求和景气度较博弈；4）高速公路：高速公路公司估值以及股息率重回高性价比区间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 张银晗 胡俊文 魏爱 ...

10月23日，嘉友国际盘中下跌2.11%，截至10:11，报13.46元/股，成交6755.38万元，换手率0.36%，总 市值184.13亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出411.90万元，特大单买入687.81万元，占比10.18%，卖出875.38万元， 占比12.96%；大单买入948.51万元，占比14.04%，卖出1172.84万元，占比17.36%。 嘉友国际今年以来股价涨0.93%，近5个交易日跌1.97%，近20日涨9.16%，近60日涨16.94%。 资料显示，嘉友国际物流股份有限公司位于北京市石景山区城通街26号院2号楼23-24层，成立日期2005 年6月22日，上市日期2018年2月6日，公司主营业务涉及跨境多式联运、大宗矿产品物流、智能仓储等 跨境多式联运综合物流服务及供应链贸易服务。主营业务收入构成为：供应链贸易服务62.06%，跨境 多式联运综合物流服务29.83%，陆港项目服务7.57%，PPP项目合同0.53%，其他0.02%。 嘉友国际所属申万行业为：交通运输-物流-跨境物流。所属概念板块包括：增持回购、一带一路、基金 重仓、融资融券、中盘等。 截至6月30日，嘉友国际 ...

10月22日，嘉友国际盘中上涨2.07%，截至13:37，报13.82元/股，成交7480.91万元，换手率0.40%，总 市值189.06亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入233.50万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%，卖出106.10万元，占比 1.42%；大单买入1353.50万元，占比18.09%，卖出1013.90万元，占比13.55%。 嘉友国际今年以来股价涨3.63%，近5个交易日跌1.22%，近20日涨10.91%，近60日涨18.63%。 截至6月30日，嘉友国际股东户数3.38万，较上期增加20.77%；人均流通股40507股，较上期增加 15.93%。2025年1月-6月，嘉友国际实现营业收入40.84亿元，同比减少11.99%；归母净利润5.61亿元， 同比减少26.15%。 分红方面，嘉友国际A股上市后累计派现21.84亿元。近三年，累计派现15.53亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，嘉友国际十大流通股东中，中欧时代先锋股票A（001938）位居 第六大流通股东，持股1060.01万股，相比上期增加560.00万股。景顺长城景盛双息收益债券A类 （002065 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 | 物流 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 22 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | 2025 | 年 | | 月 | 17 日 | | | | 10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 13.39 | | | | | | | 一 内 低 | 高 | | | 最 | 23.14/9.66 | | 最 | 年 | ...

嘉友国际今年以来股价涨1.00%，近5个交易日跌3.09%，近20日涨6.99%，近60日涨21.46%。 资料显示，嘉友国际物流股份有限公司位于北京市石景山区城通街26号院2号楼23-24层，成立日期2005 年6月22日，上市日期2018年2月6日，公司主营业务涉及跨境多式联运、大宗矿产品物流、智能仓储等 跨境多式联运综合物流服务及供应链贸易服务。主营业务收入构成为：供应链贸易服务62.06%，跨境 多式联运综合物流服务29.83%，陆港项目服务7.57%，PPP项目合同0.53%，其他0.02%。 嘉友国际所属申万行业为：交通运输-物流-跨境物流。所属概念板块包括：增持回购、一带一路、基金 重仓、融资融券、中盘等。 截至6月30日，嘉友国际股东户数3.38万，较上期增加20.77%；人均流通股40507股，较上期增加 15.93%。2025年1月-6月，嘉友国际实现营业收入40.84亿元，同比减少11.99%；归母净利润5.61亿元， 同比减少26.15%。 10月21日，嘉友国际盘中上涨2.05%，截至10:25，报13.47元/股，成交5523.86万元，换手率0.30%，总 市值184.27亿元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The travel chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, with ticket prices showing a positive trend and a clear inflection point in revenue [2][5] - The shipping sector is witnessing a seasonal surge in freight rates due to peak season and geopolitical factors [6] - The logistics sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices for major express delivery companies, with a second round of price hikes initiated [6] Summary by Sections Aviation - Demand recovery is evident, with business travel gradually increasing since September, leading to improved revenue margins. The industry is expected to benefit from a tightening supply side and lower fuel costs, resulting in a resonance of income and costs [5][17] - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to remain slow in 2025, with engine maintenance squeezing capacity. The industry is projected to reach historical highs in capacity utilization [5][17] Shipping - Oil shipping rates are on the rise, with the average VLCC-TCE increasing by 8.7% to $86,000 per day. Geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases are expected to support the oil shipping market [6][22] - The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping has risen by 12.9% to 1,310 points, driven by increased demand and tariff adjustments [6][22] - The BDI index for bulk shipping has increased by 6.9% to 2,069 points, supported by stable overseas mining shipments [6][22] Logistics - The express delivery sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices, with a second round of price hikes underway. The overall performance of the sector is expected to improve in Q4 and next year [6][36] - The average daily collection volume for postal express services has decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating seasonal effects and price adjustments [6][36]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：603871 证券简称：嘉友国际公告编号：2025-046 嘉友国际物流股份有限公司 关于召开2025年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 投资者可于2025年10月14日（星期二）至2025年10月20日（星期一）16:00前登录上证路演中心网站 首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱jy_board@jyinternational.com进行提问。公司将在说明会上 对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 嘉友国际物流股份有限公司（简称"公司"）已于2025年8月27日发布公司2025年半年度报告，为便于广 大投资者更全面深入地了解公司2025年半年度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于2025年10月21日（星期 二）14:00-15:00举行2025年半年度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、说明会类型 本次业绩说明会以网络互动形式召开，公司将针对2025年半年度的经营成果及财务指标的具体情况与投 资者进行 ...

会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 证券代码：603871 证券简称：嘉友国际 公告编号：2025-046 嘉友国际物流股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： （网址：https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 投资者可于 2025 年 10 月 14 日（星期二）至 2025 年 10 月 20 日（星期 一）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮 箱 jy_board@jyinternational.com 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍 关注的问题进行回答。 嘉友国际物流股份有限公司（简称"公司"）已于 2025 年 8 月 27 日发布公 司 2025 年半年度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2025 年半年度 经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2025 年 10 月 21 日（星期二）14:00-15:00 举行 2025 年半年度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Global Market Impact**: The global multi-asset market has experienced significant declines due to rising risk aversion stemming from U.S. export controls on Boeing aircraft parts and increased tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to the largest single-day and weekly drops in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices since April [1][2][4]. - **Oil Price Decline**: Oil prices have plummeted, with Brent crude and WTI reaching their lowest levels since May, at $62 and $58 respectively, primarily due to improved expectations of oil supply stability following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [1][5][4]. Company-Specific Insights - **Boeing and Chinese Airlines**: The U.S.-China trade war may position Boeing aircraft and parts as key negotiation points, potentially leading to delays in deliveries to Chinese airlines, which currently hold at least 222 Boeing aircraft orders [1][6][7]. - **Airline Sector Performance**: The increase in passenger load factors during the National Day holiday and the drop in oil prices are favorable for airline stocks, with recommendations for Huaxia Airlines and major Hong Kong banks [1][6][7]. - **Shipping Industry**: The initial impacts of the U.S.-China trade war on goods trade may paradoxically benefit shipping rates due to potential stockpiling after a short-term decline in imports, with COSCO Shipping recommended as a core investment [1][8]. Sector Analysis - **Express Delivery Industry**: A price increase in express delivery services in Henan signals the start of a second wave of price hikes, with expectations for similar increases in other regions ahead of the Double Eleven shopping festival. Companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express are recommended [3][10]. - **Chemical Industry**: Chemical product prices have slightly decreased due to the trade war, with a focus on resource-based fertilizers and agricultural chemicals for growth opportunities. Berkshire Hathaway's acquisition of a chemical division indicates investment potential in leading chemical firms [3][11]. - **Coal Industry**: Coal demand has exceeded expectations, with long-term contracts priced higher than spot prices, indicating strong winter replenishment demand. Companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are highlighted for their high dividend yields [3][19]. Additional Insights - **Trade War Effects on Logistics**: The trade war's impact on logistics and shipping may create volatility, but it also presents opportunities for investment in companies less affected by U.S.-China tensions, such as JIAYOU International and Jitu Express [1][9]. - **Chemical Sector Recovery**: The chemical sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with price increases anticipated in October. Key players like Sanyou Chemical and Zhongtai Chemical are recommended for investment [11][13][17]. - **Agricultural Chemicals**: The market for agricultural chemicals is showing signs of recovery, with price increases expected for glyphosate and potassium fertilizers, suggesting investment in leading firms like Xingfa Group and Jiangshan Chemical [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and investment opportunities across various sectors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in profits for the express delivery sector driven by anti-competition policies, with an expected increase in prices leading to improved profitability for companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [5][6]. - The shipping sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly for oil tankers, with historical high freight rates observed in August and September 2025. The report anticipates continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and a release of pent-up inventory demand [5]. - The shipbuilding industry is in a phase of profit release as high-priced orders are being delivered, with a strong demand for replacing old vessels. The report notes that the implementation of the 301 policy is expected to stimulate order volumes and ship prices [5]. - The airline sector is projected to see significant improvements in operational performance due to increased capacity and a recovery in international travel, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines expected to benefit [5][6]. - The report also indicates that the highway and railway sectors are likely to maintain growth in traffic volumes, with improvements in railway freight performance anticipated due to the retraction of previous freight rate reductions [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Oil tanker freight rates reached historical highs in August and September 2025, with a projected 14% decline in VLCC market rates for Q3, while Cape-sized bulk carriers are expected to see a 19% increase in rates [5]. - The report recommends companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Merchants Heavy Industry, highlighting the strong demand and supply constraints in the sector [5]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with ongoing demand for replacing old vessels. The report suggests that the implementation of the 301 policy will positively impact order volumes and ship prices [5]. - Recommended companies include China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [5]. Airlines - The airline sector is entering a peak travel season with increased capacity and improved passenger flow. The report anticipates significant operational improvements for major airlines due to favorable external factors such as lower oil prices [5][6]. - Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key beneficiaries of this trend [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profits due to rising prices and reduced competition. The report notes a 12.3% year-on-year growth in express delivery volume in August 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases [5]. Highway and Railway - The report forecasts growth in highway traffic and railway passenger and freight volumes, with a notable increase in railway freight performance expected in Q3 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Zhejiang Huhangyong and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, which are expected to perform well in the current environment [5].