Core Insights - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a significant decline in the average selling price of live pigs in October 2025, with a decrease of 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year, suggesting ongoing pressure on pig prices in the near future [1] - The slaughter volume in October 2025 was 5.0352 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [1] - The report highlights that the proportion of large pigs being sold is lower than in the same period in 2024, while the inventory of large pigs is increasing, suggesting a potential easing of supply in the future [1] Industry Overview - The gross white price difference as of November 6, 2025, was 4.18 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.08 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 0.84 yuan/kg, indicating mixed market conditions [2] - The national frozen product inventory rate was reported at 20.03%, up 4.06 percentage points year-on-year, which may exert downward pressure on future pig prices due to high inventory levels [2] - In October 2025, the industry faced significant losses, with self-breeding and self-raising operations losing 167.97 yuan per head, reflecting a worsening financial situation for producers [3] - The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month as of November 7, 2025, indicating a trend of reduction in breeding capacity [3] Company Performance - In October 2025, 12 listed pig companies reported a total of 16.9469 million heads sold, a year-on-year increase of 29.29%, with individual companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing significant increases in their sales volumes [4] - The average selling price for major listed pig companies fell month-on-month, with prices for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs decreasing by 10.3% and 12.2% respectively [5] - The average weight of pigs sold by major companies also saw a decline, with Dabeinong reporting an average weight of 110.1 kg per head, down 18.8 kg from the previous month [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing increasing supply pressure of live pigs as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. In October 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year. The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, up 10.40% month-on-month and 9.55% year-on-year. The actual output in October exceeded the planned output by 5.70%, but the planned output for November is expected to decrease by 3.27% compared to October [3][14][24] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The supply pressure of live pigs is gradually accumulating as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. The average selling price in October 2025 was 11.69 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease [3][14] - The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, indicating a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55% [3][14] Market Dynamics - The proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) in the slaughter structure was 4.89%, which is lower than the same period in 2024. The stock of large pigs is expected to increase, leading to a more relaxed supply in the future [4][18] - The winter pork consumption is expected to improve, which may drive the price difference between lean and fatty pork. However, the high inventory rate of frozen products may suppress future prices [4][19][23] Financial Performance - In October, the industry faced deepening losses, with self-breeding losses reaching 167.97 yuan per head. The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month [5][24] - The average selling price of major listed pig companies decreased month-on-month, with prices ranging from 10.97 to 11.87 yuan/kg, reflecting declines of 9.9% to 13.9% [6][7][34]

Summary of Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural sector is currently undervalued, with a PB percentile ranking low among the 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan index, indicating potential investment opportunities due to low valuations in various sub-sectors [1][3][6] Key Insights and Arguments - **Animal Health Sector**: This sub-sector has seen the highest growth, driven by specific events rather than a broad sector effect, with a 73% increase since September 2024 [4][5] - **Swine Farming**: Expected government interventions to address falling pig prices and production capacity reduction, with a focus on increasing imports of U.S. agricultural products like soybeans and wheat, which could lower feed costs and improve market expectations for swine farming [1][6][8] - **Seed Industry**: Potential investment opportunities driven by policy changes and a rebound in grain prices, particularly during the year-end policy announcement period [1][10] - **Pet Food Industry**: Facing intensified domestic competition and impacts from the U.S.-China tariff war, but leading companies like Guai Bao and Zhong Chong are expected to emerge stronger [1][13] - **Poultry Farming**: The high incidence of avian influenza during the peak season (October to February) may create investment opportunities, particularly in regions like France and the U.S. [2][14] Market Performance - The agricultural sector's performance has been relatively weak, ranking 22nd in terms of price changes since September 2024, but improved to 17th since April 2025 [3] - Specific stocks have shown significant gains, often driven by unique events rather than core business logic, indicating a lack of consistent performance across the sector [5] Future Investment Opportunities - The agricultural sector may benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies and low valuations across sub-sectors, particularly in swine farming, where supply increases, cost reductions, and consumption recovery are anticipated [6][9] - Recommended stocks include leading companies in swine farming like Muyuan and Wens, as well as low-cost or growth-oriented firms [9] Additional Insights - The seed industry may see price recovery due to recent declines in corn prices, which were driven by weather-related issues rather than supply increases [10][11] - The rubber industry is currently stable but faces short-term challenges; however, long-term prospects remain positive [12]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 汪静 "猪周期"之下，神农集团（605296.SH）正在力求突围。 然而，2023年，经过非洲猪瘟后的猪企大规模扩产，中国生猪养殖市场从供需结构来看已经呈现为供大 于求的态势。生猪养殖行业由过去一般3—4年为一个周期，到2023年出现了传统猪周期规律"失效"的现 象，处于"非典型"周期阶段。从2023年开始，过量的供给叠加非瘟疫情，市场去产能的速度开始逐渐加 快。 这轮"猪周期"之下，生猪价格持续下行，行业企业"卖得多、挣得少"的窘境延续，神农集团也不例外。 数据显示，2025年9月份，神农集团商品猪价格跌至12.82元/公斤，创下年内新低，10月份仍然呈现下 降趋势，商品猪销售均价11.04元/公斤，环比9月份下降13.88%。 简报数据显示，生猪养殖企业2025年10月份的商品猪价格进一步走低，并于年内首次跌破12元/公斤， 较上年同期普遍已下跌超过三成。据农业农村部全国重点农产品市场信息平台的数据，全国生猪市场价 格（线上）2025年10月份亦跌破12元/公斤，其后价格变化一度有所反复，尚未看到明确止跌迹象。 日前，神农集团发布公告，2025年10月份，公司销售生猪33.5 ...

Core Insights - Shennong Group's stock price increased by 2.00% to 30.60 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 16.058 billion CNY as of November 10 [1] - The company reported a year-to-date stock price increase of 12.05%, but a decline of 6.65% over the past 60 days [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, Shennong Group's revenue was 3.923 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.79% year-on-year, and net profit was 462 million CNY, down 3.89% year-on-year [2] Company Overview - Shennong Group, established on August 9, 1999, and listed on May 28, 2021, is based in Kunming, Yunnan Province [1] - The company's main business includes the production and sale of feed products, pig farming, slaughtering, and pork sales, with revenue composition: 76.08% from live pigs, 18.37% from pork products, 3.72% from feed, 0.94% from deep processing products, and 0.89% from other sources [1] - The company operates in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, specifically in pig farming [1] Shareholder Information - As of October 31, the number of shareholders decreased by 1.41% to 19,200, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 1.44% to 27,033 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 536 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 336 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, major shareholders include Yinhua Agricultural Industry Stock Fund, which increased its holdings by 43.84% to 2.1227 million shares [3] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reduced its holdings by 20.89% to 1.8383 million shares, while Guotai CSI Animal Husbandry ETF increased its holdings by 67.41% to 1.7219 million shares [3]

3、负债率保持稳定，公司注重高质量发展。截至25Q3，公司资产负债率为27%，较24 年年末下降 0.32pct，目标是控制在40%以内。资本开支今年在10 亿左右，波动不会太大，公司已提前规划明年授 信及用款计划，以应对可能出现的融资困难或猪价低迷导致的全行业亏损情况，确保现金流稳定。 盈利预测与估值 11 月6 日神农集团出席了我们组织的2026 年度投资峰会，会上公司就未来猪价走势判断，公司经营战 略等内容进行了讨论，我们认为在当下政策制约供给的背景下，高质量产能才有未来，公司以优质成本 与稳健资本开支持续增长，并保持了较低的负债率。我们看好公司未来发展前景，维持"买入"评级。 核心亮点： 1、行业能繁母猪相对充裕，25Q4-26H1 猪价中枢或下移。据农村农业部数据，截至2025 年9 月，全国 能繁母猪存栏4035 万头，仍高于正常保有量3900 万头3.5%，供应基础相对充裕。此外，猪企生产效率 提升也或将放大猪肉供应。2026 年头部猪企出栏量预计继续增长，叠加需求端相对疲软，我们预计 25Q4-26H1 猪价均价中枢或下移，根据生猪期货最新价格，生猪2511、2601、2603 合约价格对应猪 ...

Group 1 - Great Wall Technology has terminated the planning of control change matters and will resume trading on November 10, 2025 [2] - The actual controllers of Great Wall Technology were in discussions for a share transfer that could lead to a change in control, but they decided to terminate the planning due to a lack of consensus on core issues [2] Group 2 - Eight One Steel and other companies or shareholders are under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws [3] - Eight One Steel received a notice from the CSRC regarding the investigation, stating that their production and operations remain normal and will not be significantly affected [3] Group 3 - ST Chang Pharmaceutical has been investigated by the CSRC for suspected false reporting of financial data, which could lead to mandatory delisting if found guilty of major violations [4] - Intercontinental Oil and Gas is also under investigation, but the investigation pertains to a shareholder and does not affect the company's operations [4] Group 4 - Tianyi New Materials has agreed to undergo pre-restructuring due to creditor applications, which is expected to improve the chances of successful restructuring [6] - The pre-restructuring process will facilitate early communication with creditors and potential investors [6] Group 5 - Suzhou Planning intends to acquire 100% of Dongjin Aviation Technology through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with a transaction price of 250 million yuan [7] - This acquisition aims to create a competitive integrated solution in air traffic management, addressing industry pain points and aligning with the development of the low-altitude economy [7] Group 6 - Del Shares plans to acquire 100% of Aizhuo Intelligent Technology through share issuance and will raise matching funds from specific investors [8] - The transaction has been reviewed and approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's merger and reorganization review committee [8] Group 7 - Degute has decided to terminate its major asset restructuring transaction due to difficulties in forming a satisfactory plan within the effective time window [9] - The termination requires further negotiations and internal approval processes from the involved parties [9] Group 8 - Aerospace Hanyu's subsidiary has won a bid for a project worth approximately 246.3 million yuan, which is expected to positively impact the company's performance [11] - Huachang Communications has elected a new chairman, which may influence the company's strategic direction [11] Group 9 - Maolai Optical has received approval from the CSRC to issue convertible bonds to unspecified investors [12] - Tianchen Medical has adjusted its share repurchase plan, increasing the maximum repurchase price and total amount [12] Group 10 - Jiangsu Youxian's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 100 million and 150 million yuan [21] - Jian Ke Institute plans to reduce its holdings by up to 1,466,600 shares [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side relaxation continues to suppress pig prices, with a significant acceleration in the reduction of breeding sows in October [2] - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market forces that promote capacity reduction, leading to long-term performance improvements [3][38] - The planting chain shows a positive outlook with an established upward trend in grain prices, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][38] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The current pig price is weak, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.91 yuan/kg, down 4.64% week-on-week [11] - The price of 15 kg piglets is 18.93 yuan/kg, up 4.41% week-on-week [11] - The industry is experiencing a comprehensive loss phase, with pig prices dropping below 12 yuan/kg and weaning pig prices around 200 yuan/head [8][11] Poultry - The white feather broiler price remains stable at 7.09 yuan/kg, while chick prices have decreased to 3.54 yuan/chick, down 1.12% week-on-week [16] - The supply of broilers is increasing, but purchasing enthusiasm remains low [16] Feed Sector - Corn and wheat prices have decreased, while soybean meal prices have increased slightly [24] - The average price of corn is 2238.53 yuan/ton, down 0.07% week-on-week [24] Bulk Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber price is 14995 yuan/ton, down 0.60% week-on-week, with a new round of inventory replenishment starting [34] - The overall supply remains ample, and the market is characterized by weak demand [34] Investment Recommendations - Positive outlook for the pig farming sector with recommended stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [3][38] - The planting sector shows promising fundamentals with recommended stocks such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][38] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with recommended stocks including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd [3][38]

Core Insights - The aquaculture sector experienced a slight increase of 0.31% on November 7, with Tianyu Biological leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3997.56, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, down 0.36% [1] Aquaculture Sector Performance - Tianyu Biological (603717) closed at 9.46, up 3.05% with a trading volume of 169,600 shares and a turnover of 160 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Luoniushan (000735) at 8.12, up 2.40% with a volume of 1,088,900 shares [1] - Zhengbang Technology (002157) at 66.7, up 1.36% with a volume of 1,212,200 shares [1] - Muyuans (002714) at 49.71, up 0.93% with a volume of 285,500 shares [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 223 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 11.04 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Muyuan (002714) with a net inflow of 214 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Jingji Zhino (000048) with a net inflow of 50.59 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Zhengbang Technology (002157) with a net inflow of 24.48 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 2025 年 10 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 证券代码：605296 证券简称：神农集团 公告编号：2025-128 | | 月份 | | 生猪销售 | | 销售收入 | | 商品猪销价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | （万头） | | （亿元） | | （元/公斤） | | | | | 当月 | 累计 | 当月 | 累计 | 当月 | | 2025 | 年 | 4 月 | 22.73 | 108.77 | 3.98 | 17.06 | 14.68 | | 2025 | 年 | 5 月 | 23.28 | 132.05 | 4.13 | 21.19 | 14.43 | | 2025 | 年 | 6 月 | 21.90 | 153.95 | 3.85 | 25.04 | 14.35 | | 2025 | 年 | 7 月 | 17.47 | 171.42 | 3.27 | 28.31 | 14.73 | | 2025 | 年 | 8 月 | 16.64 | 188.06 | 2.85 | 3 ...