Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) is maintained at "Buy" [4][10]. Core Views - The company has exceeded performance expectations, driven by new product launches and channel expansion, leading to an upward revision of EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 6.31, 8.20, and 10.48 CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 60.8%, 30.1%, and 27.8% respectively [10]. - The target price has been raised to 249.50 CNY from the previous 206.78 CNY, reflecting a PEG ratio of 1.01X based on comparisons with competitors like Nongfu Spring and Yanjing Beer [10]. - The company expects to achieve revenue of 12.4 to 12.72 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.5% to 47.2%, and a net profit of 2.6 to 2.73 billion CNY, up 57% to 65% [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 8.505 billion CNY, with projections of 11.263 billion CNY for 2023 and 16.233 billion CNY for 2024, indicating a growth rate of 32.4% and 44.1% respectively [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1.441 billion CNY in 2022 to 2.040 billion CNY in 2023 and 3.279 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting growth rates of 41.6% and 60.8% [11]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to improve to a range of 19.2% to 20.6% in Q3 2024, an increase of 2 to 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Market Position and Strategy - Dongpeng Beverage is capitalizing on the growing demand for energy drinks and electrolyte water, aligning with consumer trends towards health and wellness [10]. - The company is enhancing its market share through aggressive channel management and product placement strategies, particularly during peak seasons [10]. - The introduction of the "Buli La" product line is expected to become a significant growth driver, appealing to both energy drink consumers and those seeking hydration solutions [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance continues to exceed expectations, with significant growth in its second growth curve [2] - The revenue forecast for Q1-Q3 2024 is estimated to be between 12.4 billion to 12.72 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.50% to 47.21% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 2.6 billion to 2.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 57.04% to 64.89% [2] - The company is successfully implementing its second growth curve strategy, with strong sales performance from its new product line [2] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company reported an expected revenue of 4.527 billion to 4.847 billion yuan for Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.32% to 52.38% [2] - The net profit for Q3 is projected to be between 869 million to 999 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 58.80% to 82.55% [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 is expected to be 19.91%, an increase of 2.70 percentage points year-on-year [2] Growth Strategy - The company has a clear strategy for its second growth curve, with effective sales validation [2] - The new product "Bushi La" is gaining traction, and the company aims to achieve its annual targets smoothly [2] - The company is enhancing its channel and brand strength while optimizing its product offerings to adapt to market changes [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 7.92, 10.14, and 12.74 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 27, 21, and 17 times [2] - The company is expected to continue increasing its market share in the energy drink sector while rapidly growing its new electrolyte water products [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has announced a performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2024, indicating strong revenue and profit growth, with Q3 revenue and net profit exceeding expectations [3] - The company is benefiting from a combination of national expansion, frozen product strategy, and a diversified product matrix, leading to robust sales growth [3] - The company is experiencing significant scale effects and a decrease in sugar costs, resulting in a notable improvement in profitability [3] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the beverage sector, with strong long-term investment value due to its innovative product offerings and market penetration strategies [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 161.2 billion, 202.0 billion, and 244.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 43%, 25%, and 21% [4] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 32.4 billion, 42.4 billion, and 52.8 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 59%, 31%, and 25% [4] - The current market valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of 33.8x, 25.8x, and 20.7x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Financial Data - For the first nine months of 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue between 124.0 billion and 127.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.50% to 47.21% [3] - The estimated net profit for the same period is expected to be between 26.0 billion and 27.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.04% to 64.89% [3] - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to be 44.07% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 20.07% [4][12]

Financial Performance - The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024 is expected to be between CNY 2,600 million and CNY 2,730 million, representing an increase of CNY 944 million to CNY 1,074 million compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 57.04% to 64.89%[1] - The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between CNY 2,550 million and CNY 2,680 million, an increase of CNY 1,048 million to CNY 1,178 million year-on-year, with a growth rate of 69.76% to 78.41%[1] - The estimated operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 is expected to be between CNY 12,400 million and CNY 12,720 million, an increase of CNY 375 million to CNY 407 million compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 43.50% to 47.21%[1] - The net profit for the same period last year was CNY 1,655.6 million, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 1,502.13 million[2] - The earnings per share for the same period last year was CNY 3.1838[2] Company Strategy - The company has been focusing on nationwide strategy and enhancing channel management to drive sales and revenue growth[4] - The company does not expect significant impact from non-operating gains and losses on its performance[4] - There are no major uncertainties affecting the accuracy of the performance forecast[4] Reporting and Forecasting - The data provided is preliminary and subject to final confirmation in the official third-quarter report[4] - The company has implemented a capital reserve conversion plan, increasing the share capital by 30% based on the total share capital as of June 30, 2024[3]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call involves Dongpeng Beverage Group Co., Ltd. and discusses the beverage industry, particularly the energy drink sector [1]. Core Points and Arguments - Dongpeng Beverage Group reported achievements in the first half of 2024, highlighting the growth in the energy drink market in China [1]. Other Important Content - The call emphasizes the overall robust development of the beverage industry in China, indicating a positive market trend [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy - B" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading energy drink brand in China, with a strong focus on multi-category development and a robust national expansion strategy. The sales volume of its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, surpassed 10 billion yuan in 2023, marking it as the top-selling energy drink in the country [1][32]. - The energy drink market is expected to continue growing, with a projected market size nearing 100 billion yuan in the medium term, driven by expanding consumer demographics and product offerings [1][2][55]. Company Overview - The company, founded in 1987, has evolved from a local beverage manufacturer to a national leader in energy drinks, launching various sub-brands to diversify its product portfolio. The company has successfully implemented a nationwide expansion strategy since 2013 and went public in 2021 [1][32]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% in revenue from 2018 to 2023, with net profit CAGR reaching 57%, indicating strong financial performance and growth potential [36][40]. Industry Analysis - The energy drink market has shown a compound annual growth rate of 11.8% over the past decade, significantly outpacing the overall soft drink market. The market size reached 576 billion yuan in 2023, with an 8.1% year-on-year growth [1][55]. - The competitive landscape has shifted from a single dominant player to a more diversified market with multiple strong brands, providing opportunities for growth for domestic brands like Dongpeng [1][55]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 152.55 billion yuan, 196.66 billion yuan, and 247.64 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.4%, 28.9%, and 25.9% [2][3]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 29.13 billion yuan, 38.24 billion yuan, and 48.27 billion yuan, with growth rates of 42.8%, 31.3%, and 26.2% [2][3].

东鹏饮料(集团)股份有限公司 关于股东及其一致行动人减持股份超过 1%暨累计减持比例 达到 5%的简式权益变动报告书 上市公司名称:东鹏饮料(集团)股份有限公司 股票上市地点:上海证券交易所 股票简称:东鹏饮料 股票代码:605499 信息披露义务人:天津君正创业投资合伙企业(有限合伙) 住 所:天津市滨海新区中新生态城建设公寓 9 号楼 3 层 301 房间-222 通讯地址: 北京市朝阳区建国路 91 号金地中心 A 座 3607-3611 室 股份变动性质:持股数量减少、持股比例下降 签署日期:二〇二四年九月二十五日 l 3 FA 信息披露义务人声明 一、本报告书系信息披露义务人依据《中华人民共和国证券法》、《上市公 司收购管理办法》、《公开发行证券的公司信息披露内容与格式准则第 15 号一权 益变动报告书(2020年修订)》及其他相关法律、法规及部门规章的有关规定编 写。 二、信息披露义务人签署本报告书已获得必要的授权和批准,其履行亦不违 反信息披露义务人章程或内部规则中的任何条款,或与之相冲突。 三、依据《中华人民共和国证券法》、《上市公司收购管理办法》、《公开 发行证券的公司信息披露内容与格式准则 ...

证券代码：605499 证券简称：东鹏饮料 公告编号：2024-088 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 东鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司 2024 年半年度权益分派实施公告 重要内容提示： | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息） | 新增无限售 条件流通股 | 现金红利发 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 日 | 份上市日 | 放日 | | Ａ股 | 2024/10/8 | － | 2024/10/9 | 2024/10/9 | 2024/10/9 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配、转增股本方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配及转增股本方案经公司 2024 年 9 月 18 日的 2024 年第三次临时股东大会审 议通过。 二、 分配、转增股本方案 1. 发放年度：2024 年半年度 2. 分派对象： 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在 ...

证券代码：605499 证券简称：东鹏饮料 公告编号：2024-089 公司股东君正投资于2024年7月25日至2024年9月24期间通过集中竞价及 大宗交易方式累计卖出公司股份4,364,496股，占公司总股本的1.0911%，该 次权益变动后君正投资持有公司股份15,636,004股，占公司总股本3.9089%。 权益变动的明细如下： 东鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东减持股份超过 1%暨累计减持比 例达到 5%的公告的权益变动提示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本次权益变动为东鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 持股5%以上股东天津君正创业投资合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称"君正投 资"），即本次权益变动信息披露义务人履行此前披露的减持计划，不触及要 约收购，不会导致公司控股股东及实际控制人发生变化。 本次权益变动后，君正投资持有公司股份比例从5.0000%减少至3.9089%。 本次权益变动为君正投资于2024年7月25日至2024年9月24期间通过 ...

请注意，符蓉,郝宇新并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 如何理解高成长性和高估值？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 高速增长的内因：战略鉴定，战术高效。从产品端来看，东鹏特饮以 高性价比和更懂消费者的包装把握市场需求，品牌与产品相辅相成， 第二曲线产品接棒贡献营收高增；从管理层来看，创始人高瞻远瞩， 经营效率持续提升；从渠道端来看，近年渠道持续快速扩张兑现增长 潜力，同时公司招商与单商营收提升交替推进，未来应重点关注区域 单商营收提升对整体收入增长的拉动作用，数字化亦赋能公司管理。 ⚫ 高速增长的外因：从行业发展角度来看，消费习惯与消费人群扩容贡 献能量饮料增长，能量饮料有望承担更多中国人的提神需求。从品类 定位角度来看，中国能量饮料产品是"特定场景下的必选消费品"，而 非海外市场的"饮料&可选消费品"；从竞争格局角度来看，红牛争议 悬而未决，东鹏相对优势显著。 ⚫ 展望未来，如何看待东鹏饮料增长的未来空间？以广东区域为模板从 人口和总量等 6 种视角测算东鹏特 ...