Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has exceeded performance expectations with strong sales momentum, indicating a reinforced growth trend [1][4] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 124.0-127.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.50%-47.21% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 26.0-27.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.04%-64.89% [4] Revenue Summary - The company reported a revenue of 45.3-48.5 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 42.32%-52.38% [4] - The sales performance has been positively impacted by various initiatives, including advertising during the Olympics and product promotions related to school training [4][6] - Inventory days have decreased due to improved sales and enhanced inventory management [4] Profitability Summary - The company is experiencing cost improvements and enhanced efficiency, leading to strong profitability [4] - The gross margin is expected to maintain the level seen in Q2 2024, aided by a significant drop in sugar prices [4] - Despite increased expenses related to advertising and equipment, the sales momentum is strong, leading to a projected improvement in the sales expense ratio [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 161.1 billion yuan, 211.1 billion yuan, and 269.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.0%, 31.0%, and 27.5% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 32.4 billion yuan, 43.1 billion yuan, and 55.9 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 58.6%, 33.2%, and 29.7% respectively [4][6] - Corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 34, 25, and 20 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6]. Core Views - The company continues to show strong performance, leading to an upward revision of profit expectations. Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 15.975 billion, 20.242 billion, and 24.586 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.84%, 26.71%, and 21.46% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.204 billion, 4.185 billion, and 5.240 billion yuan, with growth rates of 57.10%, 30.61%, and 25.20% respectively, resulting in a three-year CAGR of 36.96% [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 12.4-12.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.50%-47.21%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.6-2.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57.04%-64.89% [10]. - For Q3 alone, the expected revenue is 4.527-4.847 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.32%-52.38%. The net profit is projected to be 869-999 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58.80%-82.55% [10]. Market Expansion - The company is actively pursuing a national expansion strategy, which is driving terminal sales. The energy drink segment is expected to maintain good growth, with a trend towards younger and more diverse consumer demographics. The company is also enhancing its marketing efforts in areas like esports and street dance [10]. Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 35, 27, and 22 respectively. The company is transitioning from a leader in energy drinks to a broader beverage platform, supported by strong performance in its second growth curve and increased shareholder returns through semi-annual dividends [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6 billion to 2.73 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.04% to 64.89% [1][3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 is projected to be between 12.4 billion and 12.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.5% to 47.21% [2][4] - The company maintains a high growth rate in Q3 2024, with expected revenue of 4.538 billion to 4.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.68% to 52.74% [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 21% to 21.5% for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 1.8 percentage points to 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - For Q3 2024, the expected net profit is between 880 million and 1.011 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 60.89% to 84.64% [3] - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 16.172 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 43.6% [5] Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence in Guangdong while optimizing its distribution system nationwide, which is expected to support growth in energy drinks and new product lines [4] - The introduction of new products, such as "Dongpeng Water," has led to a significant increase in revenue from other beverages, which grew by 194% to 630 million yuan in Q2 2024 [2][4] Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 6.42 yuan, 7.98 yuan, and 9.01 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 34, 27, and 24 times based on the closing price of 217 yuan per share on October 10, 2024 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company has exceeded revenue and profit expectations for multiple consecutive quarters, with a strong growth trend expected to continue into Q3 2024. The anticipated revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 is between 12.4 billion to 12.72 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.5% to 47.21% [4][5]. - The company is actively expanding its brand marketing and strengthening its terminal channel construction, which is expected to drive further growth in sales and market presence [5][6]. - The cost side is benefiting from a significant decrease in domestic sugar prices, which is expected to enhance gross margins. The company is also increasing marketing expenditures to support sales activities, which may lead to a rise in expense ratios but is anticipated to result in profits exceeding expectations [5][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards to 15.979 billion, 20.475 billion, and 25.469 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.87%, 28.14%, and 24.39% [6][7]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period has been adjusted to 3.233 billion, 4.350 billion, and 5.662 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 58.52%, 34.52%, and 30.18% [6][7]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 34, 25, and 19 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation relative to the expected high growth in earnings [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 251.44 [1][5][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 12.4-12.72 billion for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.5%-47.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 2.6-2.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57.0%-64.9% [2][3] - The company continues to focus on national expansion and channel management, enhancing operational capabilities and increasing product exposure. The new product line "Buhua La" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [2][3][4] - The company’s gross profit margin is positively impacted by a decrease in raw material costs, particularly sugar prices, which have dropped by 13.7% year-on-year [4][10] Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 6.29, RMB 8.41, and RMB 10.64 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% for net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][5][10] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from RMB 16.14 billion in 2024 to RMB 21.11 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 43.34% and 30.77% respectively [6][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively exploring multi-category development to cultivate new growth points, with a strong focus on the functional beverage market [3][5] - The company’s channel inventory is managed effectively, maintaining a reasonable and low level, which supports sales momentum [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The company is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33.41 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 24.97 by 2025 [6][10] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 109.203 billion, with a closing price of RMB 210.00 as of October 9, 2023 [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to report Q3 revenue between 4.53 billion to 4.85 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 42% to 52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 870 million to 1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 59% to 83% [1] - The main business is accelerating, with Q3 special drink revenue expected to account for 86% of total revenue, showing a year-on-year increase of 38% [1] - New product revenue is anticipated to contribute 14% of total revenue in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 105% [1] Revenue Analysis - The main business and new products are exceeding expectations, with significant growth driven by rapid expansion outside Guangdong province and increased distribution network [1] - The company forecasts total revenue for the first three quarters to be between 12.4 billion to 12.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44% to 47% [1] Profit Analysis - The net profit margin for Q3 is estimated at 19.9%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to effective cost control and scale effects [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters is expected to be between 2.6 billion to 2.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57% to 65% [1] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.85 billion, 19.90 billion, and 24.60 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.7%, 25.5%, and 23.6% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.16 billion, 4.03 billion, and 5.01 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 54.9%, 27.4%, and 24.3% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dongpeng Beverage is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to report Q3 revenue between 4.53 billion to 4.85 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 42% to 52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 870 million to 1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 59% to 83% [1] - The main business is accelerating, with Q3 special drink revenue expected to account for 86% of total revenue, showing a year-on-year increase of 38% [1] - New product revenue is anticipated to contribute 14% in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 105% [1] Revenue Analysis - The main business and new products are exceeding expectations, with significant growth driven by rapid expansion outside Guangdong province and increased distribution efforts [1] - The company forecasts total revenue for the first three quarters to be between 12.4 billion to 12.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44% to 47% [1] Profit Analysis - The net profit margin for Q3 is estimated at 19.9%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to effective cost control and scale effects [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters is expected to be between 2.6 billion to 2.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 57% to 65% [1] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 15.85 billion, 19.90 billion, and 24.60 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.7%, 25.5%, and 23.6% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3.16 billion, 4.03 billion, and 5.01 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 54.9%, 27.4%, and 24.3% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 12.4 to 12.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 44% to 47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6 to 2.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57% to 65% [2] - The revenue growth rate for Q3 2024 is projected to be the highest in the company's history for a single quarter, driven by strong sales momentum and various factors including macroeconomic recovery and brand strength from Olympic sponsorship [2] - The company's profitability is expected to improve significantly in Q3 2024, with net profit margins projected between 19.2% and 20.6%, an increase of 2 to 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 4.53 to 4.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42% to 52%, and a net profit of 870 to 1,000 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59% to 83% [2] - The company forecasts a net profit margin of 19.2% to 20.6% for Q3 2024, which is an improvement from the previous year [2] Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include the high cost-performance advantage of products, rapid development of distribution networks, and strong terminal sales, particularly in the energy drink segment [2] - The brand's visibility has been enhanced through Olympic sponsorship, contributing to market share growth [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests an upward revision of profit forecasts, with expected revenue growth rates of 42%, 28%, and 22% for 2024 to 2026, respectively [2] - The company is positioned for accelerated growth post-revenue surpassing 10 billion yuan, supported by strong demand and expansion of consumer demographics [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on strong sales performance and growth potential [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 2.6 billion to 2.73 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.04% to 64.89% [6][7]. - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 is projected to be between 12.4 billion to 12.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.50% to 47.21% [6][7]. - The company is successfully implementing a nationwide expansion strategy, enhancing channel management, and increasing product visibility through investments in refrigeration [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts a net profit of 3.177 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 55.7% [8]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 16.216 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 44% [8]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve to 44.6% in 2024 [8]. Market Position - The company is enhancing its market share in the energy drink segment and is seeing significant growth from its new product line, "Brewed Water" [6][7]. - The strong performance is attributed to effective channel management and a focus on increasing sales efficiency [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit is expected to continue growing, with forecasts of 3.975 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.807 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a sustained upward trend [8]. - The earnings per share are projected to reach 6.11 yuan in 2024, 7.64 yuan in 2025, and 9.24 yuan in 2026 [8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 东鹏饮料（605499）2024Q3 业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 增势强劲，再超预期 目标价：250 元 当前价：210 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年三季报业绩预告。2024Q1-Q3 实现营业收入 124-127.2 亿元， 同比增长 43.50%-47.21%；归母净利润 26.0-27.3 亿元，同比增长 57.04%- 64.89%；扣非归母净利润 25.5-26.8 亿元，同比增长 69.76%-78.41%。单 Q3 看， 预计实现营收 45.27-48.47 亿元，同比增长 42.32%-52.38%；归母净利润 8.69- 9.99 亿元，同比增长 58.80-82.55%；扣非归母净利润 8.43-9.73 亿元，同比增 长 64.77-90.18%。 评论： 24Q3 动销持续旺盛，支撑营收强劲增长，持续打破降速担忧。24Q3 公司收入 预告增长中枢约+47%，在报表基数走高、产能紧张背景下，再度延续迅猛增 长。一方面，天气炎热、出行增加的背景下，公司网点快速扩展，24H1 网点 数量已增至 360 万家以上，奠定高增基础；另一方面，公司线下追加冰柜投 放、各 ...