丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 股市与楼市的反差意味着什么？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 1、长周期视角，股市和楼市都反应基本面因素，在大趋势上显著正相关。2、短周期视角，股 市和楼市主要定价估值因子，二者可以有显著反差，意味着风险偏好大不同。3、中周期视角， 股市和楼市的反差裂口终将收敛，但收敛的方式将如何演绎，一方面取决于后续宏观经济基本 盘的走势，尤其是就业和通胀预期，另一方面取决于产业政策能否更加有力，尤其是能否定向 深度降息以抹平租售比和房贷利率的倒挂，实现真正止跌回稳。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 [Table_Title 股市与楼市的反差意味着什么？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标一定程度上对市场预期曾经有所提振，但 4 月以来边际下行压力再次加 大，产业政策宽松概率逐步提高，后续只是节奏问题。周期位置角度，行业量价快速下行阶段 可能已经过去，核心区和好房子具备结构 ...

Core Viewpoint - Joy City Property (00207.HK) has appointed New Baili Financing Limited as an independent financial advisor to assess the fairness and reasonableness of the proposed terms and plans under the Securities and Futures Ordinance [1] Group 1 - The appointment of New Baili Financing Limited is in accordance with the regulatory activities for Type 1 (securities trading) and Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) [1] - The independent financial advisor will provide opinions on whether the proposed terms are fair and reasonable, and whether to vote in favor of the plan at the court meeting for non-interested shareholders [1]

Group 1 - The company Dalian Wanda Group has appointed New Baili Financing Limited as an independent financial advisor [1] - The appointment is in accordance with the Securities and Futures Ordinance for regulated activities including securities trading and providing advice on institutional financing [1] - The advisor will assess the fairness and reasonableness of the terms of the proposed plan and provide opinions for the court meeting regarding the voting support from disinterested shareholders [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (00207) has appointed New Baili Financing Limited as an independent financial advisor to assess the fairness and reasonableness of the proposed acquisition plan [1] - The appointment is in accordance with the Securities and Futures Ordinance, allowing the advisor to conduct regulated activities related to securities trading and providing advice on institutional financing [1] - The advisor's role includes providing opinions on whether the terms of the proposal are fair and reasonable, and whether to vote in favor of the plan at the court meeting for non-interested shareholders [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to stabilize both the real estate and stock markets. The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][49] - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market to boost social expectations and facilitate domestic demand circulation amid uncertainties in external environments, such as ongoing Sino-US trade frictions [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.5%, the ChiNext Index grew by 8.6%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 2.4%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw an increase of 3.9% [6][9] - In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers were Wantong Development (+39.4%), Quzhou Development (+33.0%), Electronic City (+32.0%), *ST Nanzhi (+25.0%), and Shahe Shares (+21.2%) [6][9] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of August 9-15, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 141 million square meters, a decrease of 1.4% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 20.4% [16] - As of August 15, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities for the month totaled 306 million square meters, down 9.5% month-on-month and down 20.9% year-on-year [20] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of August 9-15, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 178 million square meters, an increase of 3.0% week-on-week but a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [31] - As of August 15, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities for the month totaled 381 million square meters, down 5.5% month-on-month and down 2.1% year-on-year [36] Industry News - From January to July 2025, national real estate development investment reached 535.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The sales area of commercial housing was 51.56 million square meters, down 4% year-on-year [49] - Local policies include Hainan Province encouraging "purchase instead of construction" for resettling relocated residents and Guangzhou releasing new regulations for rural residential construction management [49] Company Announcements - In July 2025, China Jinmao achieved a sales amount of 8.46 billion yuan (up 49% year-on-year), while New Town Holdings reported 1.66 billion yuan (down 52% year-on-year) [52] - China Resources Land reported a sales amount of 13.3 billion yuan (down 14% year-on-year) for July 2025 [52]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in 2024 Core Insights - The average revenue of the top 30 listed real estate companies in China is projected to decline by approximately 13.83% in 2024, totaling around RMB 2.77 trillion [9] - The average gross margin for these companies is expected to decrease to about 14.42%, down by 1.86% from the previous year [13] - The average net profit margin is projected to be around -10.81%, reflecting a significant decline of 12.45% compared to the previous year [16] - The average return on equity is expected to drop to approximately -20.75%, a decrease of 16.44% from 2023 [59] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue Overview - The total revenue for the top 30 listed real estate companies in 2024 is estimated at RMB 2.77 trillion, a decline of 13.83% year-on-year [9] - Financial Street leads the revenue growth with an increase of 51.74%, reaching RMB 190.75 billion [8] - 20 companies experienced revenue declines, with Midea Real Estate facing the largest drop at 94.94% [9] 2. Gross Margin Overview - The average gross margin for the top 30 companies is projected to be 14.42%, down 1.86% from the previous year [13] - Midea Real Estate shows the highest increase in gross margin at approximately 24.21% [14] - 23 companies reported a decline in gross margin, with Jinhui experiencing the largest drop of 30.80% [13] 3. Net Profit Overview - The average net profit for the top 30 companies is expected to be a loss of RMB 11.65 billion, a decline of 62.09 billion from a profit of RMB 50.44 billion in 2023 [23] - China Resources leads in net profit with RMB 336.78 billion, although this represents a 9.72% decrease from the previous year [24] - Over 70% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Vanke transitioning from a profit of RMB 204.56 billion to a loss of approximately RMB 487.04 billion [23] 4. Inventory Overview - The total inventory for the top 30 companies is projected to be approximately RMB 60.85 billion, a decrease of 13.58% year-on-year [33] - Only one company, Ruian, reported an increase in inventory, with a growth of 16.03% [33] - Midea Real Estate experienced the largest inventory decline at 99.11% [33] 5. Liquidity Ratios - The average current ratio for the top 30 companies is expected to be 152.86%, a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous year [42] - 16 companies reported a decline in their current ratios, with Xinda showing the largest drop of 39.17% [42] 6. Cash Short-term Debt Ratio - The average cash short-term debt ratio is projected to be 1.52, a decrease of 0.11 from the previous year [54] - Ocean Group has the lowest cash short-term debt ratio at 0.01, while Binhai has the highest at 5.53 [54] 7. Return on Equity Overview - The average return on equity is expected to be -20.75%, a decline of 16.44% from 2023 [59] - Only two companies, Jinmao and New Town, are expected to report positive returns on equity [59]

Core Insights - In July 2025, the number of new commercial projects opened was notably low, with only six projects totaling approximately 790,000 square meters, marking the lowest level in three years [1][3] - The new openings were dominated by four major commercial management giants, indicating a trend of high-quality projects despite the low quantity [3][4] Group 1: New Openings Overview - Only six new commercial projects were launched in July 2025, with a significant focus on large-scale developments, including four projects over 100,000 square meters [1][4] - Major projects included Shenzhen Joy City (250,000 square meters), Hohhot MixC (157,000 square meters), and Nanjing Jinling Tiandi (130,000 square meters), showcasing a trend of quality over quantity [4][12] Group 2: Key Projects - Shenzhen Joy City aims to be a trendy landmark for youth, featuring a unique design that integrates various spaces, including a rooftop ecological park and diverse retail offerings [5][7][10] - Hohhot MixC is positioned as a flagship commercial project, incorporating local cultural elements and offering nearly 400 brands, with over 50% being first stores [12][15] - Nanjing Jinling Tiandi, a collaboration between China Resources and Alibaba, is designed as a mixed-use complex with a focus on social interaction and innovative retail experiences, featuring over 280 brands [17][19] Group 3: Market Trends - The concentration of new openings in major cities like Shenzhen and Hohhot reflects a strategic focus on urban commercial upgrades, with Hohhot's new project marking a significant development for the city [3][12] - The trend of large-scale, high-quality commercial projects suggests a shift in the market towards creating unique consumer experiences rather than merely increasing the number of retail spaces [3][4][19]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 19, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 580.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintained a slight tightening trend, with the overnight repo weighted average rate initially exceeding 1.50% but later falling back to around 1.47% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.36% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined [9] - Government bond futures closed collectively higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.23%, the 10-year by 0.03%, the 5-year by 0.07%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Data - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while tax revenue was 1,109.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% [14] - Non-tax revenue increased by 2% to 249.06 billion yuan, with stamp duty revenue rising by 20.7% to 25.59 billion yuan, and securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 62.5% to 9.36 billion yuan [14] Group 6: Local Government Bonds - Guangdong Province plans to issue offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau, with an expected issuance scale of 2.5 billion yuan [14] Group 7: Credit Ratings - S&P Global Ratings confirmed the U.S. sovereign credit rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a stable outlook, projecting that the net general government debt will approach 100% of GDP [15]

Core Points - The Changsha Beichen Delta Joy City will be independently operated by Beichen Group starting September 20, 2025, following the expiration of the contract with Joy City [1][3] - The project has seen significant improvements in foot traffic, sales, and regional capabilities during its four years of operation, establishing a sustainable foundation for the Beichen business district to evolve into a "provincial-level nighttime consumption gathering area" [3][5] - Joy City will ensure the continuity of member rights and benefits during the transition, with a gratitude reward program for members running from August 19 to September 19, 2025 [4] Company Operations - The Changsha Beichen Delta Joy City will be renamed "Changsha Beichen Hui" and aims to provide diverse consumer experiences and high-quality services [1] - New brands such as Domino's Pizza and Yuegaojia Supermarket are being introduced to the mall, indicating ongoing operational activities [3] - Joy City has demonstrated strong performance across its national portfolio, with significant sales and foot traffic increases reported during recent promotional events [4] Industry Trends - The transition of operations from Joy City to Beichen Group reflects a growing maturity in the commercial environment of Changsha and a diversification of asset management entities [5] - The Changsha Beichen Delta commercial project is positioned as a core project within the Beichen Delta business district, benefiting from the foundational support provided by Joy City's management expertise [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Changsha Beichen Triad Delta Joy City will transition to independent operation by Beichen Group starting September 20, 2025, following the expiration of the contract with Joy City Commercial Management Team, which will withdraw in an orderly manner [1][3]. Group 1: Operational Transition - The transition is described as a normal contractual expiration, with Joy City having significantly improved foot traffic, sales, and regional capabilities during its four-year operation [3]. - The project will be renamed "Changsha Beichen Hui" and aims to provide diverse consumer experiences and high-quality services [1]. Group 2: Performance Highlights - Since its opening in September 2021, the project has become a new commercial landmark in Changsha, achieving a transformation from "real estate value" to "emotional value" [4]. - Joy City introduced over 200 brands by the end of 2024, with a notable increase in flagship and concept stores, leading to a 120% sales increase during the "Joy New Festival" in 2024 [5]. - The project has recorded over 40 million visitors by July 2025, maintaining nearly 20% growth in foot traffic over the past two years [5]. Group 3: Brand and Membership Management - To ensure member rights, Joy City has announced a "Member Points Appreciation Return" event from August 19 to September 19, 2025, allowing members to redeem points before the transition [7]. - Members can continue to use their points at all Joy City locations nationwide after the transition, ensuring seamless continuity of membership benefits [8]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The Beichen Group is set to build on the operational foundation established by Joy City, with expectations for further development in the Changsha Beichen Triad Delta commercial project [8]. - The transition reflects a growing maturity in the commercial environment of Changsha and a diversification of asset management entities [8].