（原标题：神秘资金扫货ETF） 临近年末，结构性行情依旧，市场整体偏冷，成交情绪趋于平淡。 就在这种背景下，一股"看不见的资金"突然加速进场，目标非常集中——中证A500相关ETF。 节奏不慢，力度不小。仅上周，跟踪A500指数的ETF合计净流入326.43亿元；12月以来，累计净流入已 达745.29亿元。截至目前，全市场A500ETF规模升至2749.27亿元。 其中，A500ETF南方(159352)成为最显眼的"吸金口"。Wind数据显示，该产品上周单周净流入超过百 亿元，12月以来净买入199.49亿元，均位居全市场ETF之首；最新规模达418.38亿元，在深市同标的中 排名第一。 在市场交投偏弱的阶段，如此集中、持续的资金流入，显然并非仅仅散户行为。 谁在买，为什么是现在？ 01 资金大规模流入A500 多方公开信息显示，本轮大规模流入A500ETF的资金，主要来自机构端，保险资金被市场视为最重要的 潜在来源之一。 时间点并不偶然。 12月，监管层下调保险公司股票投资风险因子，直接降低资本占用成本，相当于为险资入市，打开了一 道政策闸门。 这次调整，涉及两类核心资产： 第一，保险公司持仓超过三年的 ...

来源：滚动播报 MSCI中国指数一度下跌1.4%，较10月2日高点跌10%。 ...

近期国内政策积极表态为市场构建支撑，且大盘已经进行较长时间的震荡，有望迎来跨年行情的布局窗口期。据信达证券统计，2010 年以来，每年年底 到第二年春季的跨年阶段，大多会出现一段跨年行情。行情通常持续 1-2 个月，启动时间集中在 12 月-次年 1 月。从历史经验来看，如果指数处在低位， 则跨年行情启动的时间较早，幅度较大，有正收益的概率较高。但如果指数处在高位，则跨年行情启动的时间往往较晚，幅度和收益不确定性也更大。 | 年份 | 起始时间 | 结束时间 | 持续交易日数 | 上证综指涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 | 2025/1/13 | 2025/3/19 | રર | 8% | 涨 | | 2024 | 2024/2/6 | 2024/5/20 | ୧୩ | 17% | 跌 | | 2023 | 2022/12/23 | 2023/3/3 | 46 | 9% | 跌 | | 2022 | 2022/1/28 | 2022/2/9 | 19 | 3% | 涨 | | 2021 | 2020/11/3 | 2021/2/19 | ...

与此同时，MSCI香港指数在资本流动和房地产市场情绪最终复苏的支撑下，预期涨幅可达18%。摩根 大通预计明年三大指数的盈利增长率将在9%至15%之间，为股市上涨提供基本面支撑。 汇丰私人银行同样对香港市场持乐观态度，将恒生指数的目标设定为到2026年底达到31000点，较当前 收盘价上涨22%。该行指出，流动性增强和盈利趋势良好将成为推动因素。 摩根大通首席中国股票策略师近期发布预测，预计随着估值正常化以及遏制产能过剩举措提振关键行业 盈利能力，中国股市将在2026年实现显著上涨。该机构预测MSCI中国指数到2026年底将上涨约18%， 沪深300指数涨幅约12%。 据智通财经报道，摩根大通认为MSCI中国指数将进一步反弹。该指数作为全球投资者资产配置和投资 分析的重要基准，今年以来已累计上涨超过23%。自1月13日低点以来，MSCI中国指数累计涨幅已超过 30%，显示出中国股市的强劲复苏势头。 中国提振内需的举措有望提振企业利润率，这为股市上涨创造了有利条件。香港企稳的房地产市场、不 断扩大的零售活动、日益活跃的IPO项目以及旅游业的增长，预计将支撑香港的经济复苏。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI ...

格隆汇12月3日｜野村重申MSCI中国指数2026年基准情境目标为93点，稳健的盈利增长意味着指数仍有 上行空间，维持"增持"评级。在策略层面，该行提出三大支柱策略：第一是基本面强劲、受结构性主题 支持的板块，代表股票：腾讯、阿里巴巴、网易、宁德时代、比亚迪、老铺黄金、奥比中光、药明康 德、生益科技、胜宏科技及腾讯音乐；第二是相对价值型的周期性板块"落后者"，精选消费、电商及家 电板块以及高质量的银行与保险板块，代表股票：京东、百胜中国、安踏、美的、招商银行、中国平 安；第三是净现金/资产负债表稳健的公司，包括阿里巴巴、宁德时代、美的、网易、招商银行、中国 平安、安踏、京东及百胜中国。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of Guangfa Securities in the MSCI China Index is expected to enhance its market liquidity and attract more international passive funds, reflecting the company's recognition in terms of market capitalization, liquidity, corporate governance, and business stability [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Guangfa Securities has four main business segments: investment banking, wealth management, trading and institutional services, and investment management, holding a full business license and continuously enhancing its comprehensive financial service capabilities [1]. - The company has shown strong performance in operational stability, business expansion, and capital market performance, positioning itself favorably within the industry [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Guangfa Securities achieved steady growth in revenue and net profit, with an expanding asset scale in wealth management and solid rankings in investment banking key indicators [2]. - The company has experienced good growth momentum in trading, institutional business, and asset management, benefiting from increased capital market activity [2]. Group 3: Market Impact - The stock price of Guangfa Securities has shown a steady upward trend this year, reaching multiple new highs, driven by improved fundamentals, stable industry policies, and a recovery in investor risk appetite [2]. - The inclusion in the MSCI China Index is expected to provide additional funding support for the stock price through automatic increases from passive index funds and enhance the company's visibility among global investors [2]. Group 4: Future Strategy - Guangfa Securities plans to focus on its core responsibilities and embrace technological innovation, aiming to integrate finance and technology deeply while creating a comprehensive financial service platform that emphasizes quality assets, products, and clients [3].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline on October 22, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07% to 3913.76 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.62% to 12996.61 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.79% to 3059.32 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 1690.5 billion yuan, a decrease of over 200 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Nearly 3000 stocks were in the red, with sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, brokerage, and semiconductors declining, while the oil sector saw strong gains, with companies like Keli Co., Ltd. rising over 10% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs released a report suggesting that despite potential pullbacks in Chinese stocks, investors should shift their mindset from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows," predicting a 30% increase in the MSCI China Index by the end of 2027 [2] - Dongguan Securities noted that the index is at a high point, with increased capital divergence, warning of potential short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking, but also highlighted that economic recovery in Q4 is expected to be supported by policies [2] - The report emphasized that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could attract foreign capital inflows, enhancing the allocation value of A-shares and potentially driving domestic funds into the stock market [2]

Group 1: Bond Futures Market - On October 14, major bond futures contracts closed higher, with the 30-year bond futures (TL2512) closing at 114.760 yuan, up 0.390 yuan, a rise of 0.34% [1] - The 10-year bond futures (T2512) closed at 108.170 yuan, up 0.120 yuan, a rise of 0.11% [1] - The 5-year bond futures (TF2512) closed at 105.775 yuan, up 0.110 yuan, a rise of 0.10% [1] - The 2-year bond futures (TS2512) closed at 102.384 yuan, up 0.018 yuan, a rise of 0.02% [1] Group 2: ETF Market Performance - On October 14, ETF performance was mixed, with the Xinhua Dividend Low Volatility ETF (560890) rising by 2.85% and the Alcohol ETF (512690) increasing by 2.77% [1] - Conversely, the Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) fell by 6.85%, and the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) decreased by 6.81% [1] - The Easy Fund Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159558) also dropped by 6.74% [1] Group 3: Convertible Bonds and Indices - On October 14, the China Convertible Bond Index fell by 0.78%, closing at 479.83 points [1] - Notable gainers included the Wenke Convertible Bond, which rose by 4.52%, and the Bojun Convertible Bond, which increased by 4.28% [1] - Significant decliners included the Zhenhua Convertible Bond, which fell by 8.35%, and the New 23 Convertible Bond, which dropped by 7.61% [1] Group 4: Stock Market Insights - UBS's China equity strategy head, Wang Zonghao, noted that the MSCI China Index has risen approximately 36% since early April, with potential short-term profit-taking expected [2] - Wang expressed a preference for A-shares over H-shares, anticipating that the CSI 300 Index will show greater resilience [2] - In a volatile market environment, investment manager Jiang Shan emphasized the importance of identifying certain investment themes, remaining optimistic about both A-share and Hong Kong markets [2] Group 5: Gold Market Outlook - In the context of gold, strategist Zhao Yaoting from Invesco indicated that the upward trend in gold prices may continue to be supported [2] - Despite achieving double-digit returns in 2023 and 2024, investor participation through ETFs remains relatively low [2] - Strong performance in gold in 2025 has begun to attract investors back into the market, with positive ETF fund inflows potentially driving prices higher [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS's latest report on the Chinese stock market suggests that if the MSCI China Index declines to the 74-point level, the market may receive significant support, prompting investors to re-enter at lower prices. Currently, the MSCI China Index is around 85 points [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The MSCI China Index has rebounded approximately 36% since its low point following the escalation of the tariff war in April [1]. - The current market trend is highly similar to the situation in April, where the index attracted substantial capital inflow near the 74-point mark [1]. - UBS believes that the current valuations are attractive, and with rising policy expectations, market funds are likely to repeat the trend of buying on dips [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Sectors that performed poorly during the April sell-off but showed a significant rebound may face greater selling pressure this time, including data centers, internet, technology hardware, automotive and components, and biotechnology [1].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Financial Assets (02799) has seen a significant shareholder transfer of stocks from Citibank to HSBC, with a market value of HKD 1.214 billion, representing 3.01% of the total shares [1] Group 1: Shareholder Activity - On August 28, CITIC Financial Assets' shareholders transferred stocks from Citibank to HSBC, amounting to HKD 1.214 billion [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - CICC has raised its earnings forecast for CITIC Financial Assets by 16% and 20% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, now predicting profits of HKD 11.5 billion and HKD 11.4 billion [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Target Price - Due to improved market sentiment and the company's inclusion in the MSCI China Index, CICC has increased the target price for CITIC Financial Assets by 46% to HKD 1.21, corresponding to a 1.85x 2025 estimated P/B ratio and indicating 0% upside potential, while maintaining a neutral rating [1]