需求延续疲软收入端偏弱,等待未来国内市 2024 年 10 月 25 日，公司发布三季报，前三季度实现营收 224.50 亿元，同比增长 0.77%；实现归母净利润 25.45 亿元， 同比下降 1.74%。单 Q3 公司实现营收 75.83 亿元，同比微 降 0.80%；实现归母净利润 7.35 亿元，同比增长 19.75%。 海外业务与内需形成对冲，收入端总体平稳，阶段性偏弱。 单三季度，国内主业延续上半年表现，其中政府业务有所企 稳，企业业务受限承压，分销业务探底，创新业务增速较上 半年有提升，海外业务表现稳健。 毛利率下降，费用管控相对较好，前三季度和单三季度毛利 率分别为 40.81%、39.90%，同比分别下降 1.84pct、2.37pct， 预计受大环境需求偏弱影响。前三季度研发、销售、管理、 财务费用率分别为 13.20%、15.67%、3.53%、-1.08%，同 比提升 0.93pct、提升 0.29pct、下降 0.35pct、提升 0.31pct。 单三季度持有的金融产品及股权受资本市场提升有一定收 益，剔除非经常性损益影响，单三季度实现归母扣非净利润 4.99 亿，同比下降 22. ...

大华股份(002236) / 计算机设备 / 公司点评 / 2024.10.26 化债政策有望对回款、新项目推进产生积极影响 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-10-25 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 16.45 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 21.01 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 10.86 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 32.92 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -33% -22% -11% 0% 10% 21% 大华股份 沪深300 计算机设备 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 分析师 吴姣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522090001 wujc01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《业绩或将持续温和改善，数字化发 展长坡厚雪》 2024-08-24 2. 《业务开展 ...

Revenue and Profit - Revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 7.58 billion, a decrease of 0.80% year-over-year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was RMB 735.42 million, an increase of 19.75% year-over-year[2] - Total revenue for the current period reached 22.45 billion yuan, compared to 22.28 billion yuan in the same period last year[16] - Net profit attributable to the parent company's owners increased to 24.03 billion yuan from 23.33 billion yuan[15] - Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders was RMB 2,545,010,271.97, a slight decrease compared to the previous period[17] - Sales revenue from goods and services was RMB 23,953,796,287.86, slightly higher than the previous period's RMB 23,883,101,840.08[18] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2024 was negative RMB 124.92 million, a decrease of 109.43% year-over-year[2] - Net cash flow from investing activities decreased by 341.57% year-over-year, mainly due to increased expenditures on large bank deposits[6] - Net cash flow from financing activities decreased by 178.97% year-over-year, mainly due to the receipt of RMB 5.096 billion in raised funds in the same period last year and increased dividends this year[6] - Operating cash flow was negative at RMB -124,915,721.70, a significant decline from RMB 1,325,252,238.48 in the previous period[18] - Investment cash flow was negative at RMB -4,467,251,871.49, reflecting increased investment activities compared to the previous period[19] - Financing cash flow was negative at RMB -2,508,935,214.64, a reversal from the positive RMB 3,177,228,808.38 in the previous period[19] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by RMB 7,017,949,935.93, ending the period at RMB 8,862,709,659.02[19] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of the end of Q3 2024 were RMB 50.98 billion, a decrease of 3.59% compared to the end of the previous year[2] - Total assets decreased to 50.98 billion yuan from 52.88 billion yuan at the beginning of the period[15] - Current liabilities decreased to 13.41 billion yuan from 16.31 billion yuan[14] - Non-current liabilities decreased to 618.51 million yuan from 687.63 million yuan[14] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to 8.97 billion yuan from 15.97 billion yuan[13] - Accounts receivable increased to 17.18 billion yuan from 16.28 billion yuan[13] - Inventory increased to 6.02 billion yuan from 5.33 billion yuan[13] - The company's total assets stood at RMB 15,880,659,594.95 at the beginning of the period, decreasing to RMB 8,862,709,659.02 by the end[19] Shareholders and Dividends - Total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period: 182,930[9] - Largest shareholder: Fu Liquan, holding 31.10% of shares, totaling 1,023,868,980 shares[9] - China Mobile Communications Group Co., Ltd. holds 8.90% of shares, totaling 293,103,400 shares[9] - Zhu Jiangming holds 4.82% of shares, totaling 158,669,490 shares[9] - Chen Ailing holds 2.16% of shares, totaling 71,262,813 shares[9] - Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited holds 2.05% of shares, totaling 67,632,357 shares[9] - China Securities Finance Corporation Limited holds 1.20% of shares, totaling 39,611,241 shares[9] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited - Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF holds 1.17% of shares, totaling 38,501,630 shares[9] - China Construction Bank Corporation - E Fund CSI 300 ETF holds 0.77% of shares, totaling 25,240,743 shares[9] - Total cash dividend distribution for the first half of 2024: RMB 602,144,984.38, with a dividend of RMB 1.84 per 10 shares[11] Expenses and Investments - Operating costs increased to 20.48 billion yuan from 19.68 billion yuan year-over-year[16] - R&D expenses rose to 2.96 billion yuan, up from 2.75 billion yuan in the previous year[16] - Investment income increased by 325.33% year-over-year, mainly due to increased investment income from equity investments[5] - Total operating expenses increased to RMB 26,046,228,742.46, up from RMB 24,317,259,121.35 in the previous period[18] Earnings and Comprehensive Income - Basic earnings per share were RMB 0.78, down from RMB 0.82 in the previous period[18] - Total comprehensive income attributable to parent company shareholders was RMB 2,594,231,497.71, showing minimal change from the previous period[17] Monetary Funds and Prepayments - Monetary funds decreased by 43.87% compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to the purchase of large bank deposits and repayment of loans[5] - Prepayments increased by 79.47% compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to increased prepayments for raw materials[5] - Short-term borrowings increased by 35.26% compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to an increase in bill discounting[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **21.20 RMB** [2][7] Core Views - The company's revenue in the first half of the year increased by **2% YoY to 14.9 billion RMB**, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by **8% YoY to 1.81 billion RMB** [1] - Gross margin remained stable at **41.3%** since 2023, and operating cash flow was **-507 million RMB**, better than the pre-pandemic average [1] - Domestic business revenue declined by **5% YoY to 7.38 billion RMB**, with government business revenue dropping by **15% YoY to 800 million RMB** due to cautious local government investments and slowing demand in traditional industries [1] - Overseas business revenue grew by **9% YoY to 7.49 billion RMB**, accounting for over **50%** of total revenue for the first time, with strong growth in Latin America and Europe [1] - Innovative business revenue increased by **9% YoY to 2.46 billion RMB**, driven by machine vision, mobile robotics, and automotive electronics [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow by **8% YoY in 2024E to 34.87 billion RMB**, with further growth of **13% YoY in 2025E and 2026E** [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be **3.49 billion RMB in 2024E**, **4.31 billion RMB in 2025E**, and **4.94 billion RMB in 2026E** [3] - Gross margin is projected to remain stable at around **41.6%** from 2024E to 2026E [3] - EPS is expected to be **1.06 RMB in 2024E**, **1.31 RMB in 2025E**, and **1.50 RMB in 2026E** [3] Business Segments Domestic Business - Government business revenue declined by **15% YoY to 800 million RMB**, but opportunities are expected from increased government spending and AI applications [1] - Enterprise business revenue remained flat at **3.9 billion RMB**, with strong growth in industrial and energy sectors, but weakness in construction, education, and finance [1] - Distribution business saw a slight decline due to weak market demand, but the company is optimizing its channel ecosystem and launching new products [1] Overseas Business - Overseas revenue grew by **9% YoY to 7.49 billion RMB**, with a focus on expanding channel networks and promoting solutions in smart cities, transportation, and energy [1] - The company plans to adopt a "one country, one policy" approach to address manufacturing and supply chain challenges [1] Innovative Business - Revenue from innovative businesses grew by **9% YoY to 2.46 billion RMB**, with contributions from machine vision, mobile robotics, and automotive electronics [1] - The company is strengthening R&D and expanding product lines to penetrate core business systems [1] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's 2024E PE ratio is **12.8x**, compared to an average of **19.89x** for peers [8] - The target price of **21.20 RMB** is based on a **20x PE multiple** for 2024E [2][7] Key Financial Ratios - ROE is expected to be **9.6% in 2024E**, **10.9% in 2025E**, and **11.4% in 2026E** [3] - Net profit margin is forecasted to be **10.0% in 2024E**, **11.0% in 2025E**, and **11.1% in 2026E** [3] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain stable at around **32%** from 2024E to 2026E [3]

大华股份 (002236.SZ) 买入（首次评级） 公司简介 公司是全球领先的以视频为核心的智慧物联解决方案提供商 和运营服务商，以 AIoT 和物联数智平台两大技术战略为支 撑，服务城市数字化创新和企业数智化转型，历经产品供应 商工程/服务/运营商解决方案商AI 解决方案提供商的 演变，现阶段主要通过软化与 AI 化稳周转/扩规模/提利润。 投资逻辑 推荐逻辑一：软化程度深化提供超额毛利，星汉 AI 大模型提 效降本。软件增加值或为公司超额毛利润的主要来源，2022 年，公司广义口径下软件业务收入比重为 24.4%。2023 年 10 月，发布大华星汉大模型，提升算力利用率 30%，提升算法 准确率 10%，降低开发成本 30%。2024 年 7 月，星汉大模 型通过信通院可信 AI 大模型标准符合性验证，目前已落地城 市行业大模型与电力行业大模型。 推荐逻辑二：中移动战略入股 8.9%，DICT 业务预计贡献收 入弹性约 4.6~8.5%。2023 年 4 月，中国移动战略入股，成 为公司第二大股东。公司与中国移动业务协同互补：G 端方 案商+总集成商互补，B 端共同面向 3,000w+政企客群扩大触 及 ...

车路云建设带来新机遇，AItoB 将开拓更多垂类场景 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------| | 财务数据和估值 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 30,565.37 | 32,218.32 | 35,440.15 | 40,756.17 | 49,722.53 | | 增长率(%) | (6.91) | 5.41 | 10.00 | 15.00 | 22.00 | | EBITDA(百万元) | 6,020.35 | 11,870.04 | 4,699.90 | 5,098.14 | 5,413.57 | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 2,324.36 | 7,361.89 | 3,388.35 | 3,808.15 | 4,127.17 | | 增长率(%) | (31.20) | 216.73 | (53.97) ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 大华股份（002236）2024 半年报点评 推荐（维持） 海外业务营收超越国内，持续创新孵化 目标价：19.21 元 当前价：13.38 元 事项： ❖ 8 月 23 日，公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩：2024 年上半年，实现营业收入 148.67 亿元，同比增长 1.59%；归母净利润 18.10 亿元，同比下滑 8.42%；扣非归母 净利润 17.62 亿元，同比增长 0.43%。 评论： ❖ 营收保持增长，利润短期承压。2024H1，公司实现营业收入 148.67 亿元，同 比增长 1.59%，实现营收保持增长，单 Q2 实现营业收入 86.86 亿元，同比增 长 0.79%。2024H1，实现归母净利润 18.10 亿元，同比下滑 8.42%，主要受三 费增加、汇兑收益减少、毛利率下滑影响，其中，费用方面，2024H1 研发费 用、销售费用、管理费用分别为 19.01 亿元、22.68 亿元、5.11 亿元，分别同比 +4.78%、+3.54%、-11.00%，三费总额同比增长 2.21%，高于营收增速；毛利 率方面，2024H1 毛利率为 41.27%，同比下降 1.5 ...

投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |----------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-08-23 | | 收盘价(元) | 13.11 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 21.01 | | 每股净资产(元) | 10.75 | | 总股本(亿股) | 32.92 | 最近 12 月市场表现 大华股份 沪深300 计算机设备 -33% -23% -14% -5% 5% 14% 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 分析师 吴姣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522090001 wujc01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《业务开展格局向好，业绩或将继续 改善》 2024-04-18 2. 《业务开展格局向好，业绩或将继续 改善》 2024-04-17 3. 《业绩同比改善明显，AI 赋能+中移 合作协同共振》 2023-10-22 盈利预测： | --- | --- | --- ...

浙江大华技术股份有限公司 2024 年半年度报告全文 浙江大华技术股份有限公司 2024 年半年度报告 2024 年 8 月 24 日 1 浙江大华技术股份有限公司 2024 年半年度报告全文 第一节重要提示、目录和释义 公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容的真实、准 确、完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人傅利泉、主管会计工作负责人徐巧芬及会计机构负责人(会计主管人员)朱竹 玲声明：保证本半年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 所有董事均已出席了审议本次半年报的董事会会议。 报告期内，公司面临的风险无重大变化，公司一直努力识别所面临的各类风险，积极 采取应对措施，规避和降低风险。 （1）技术更新换代的风险：智慧物联行业是典型的技术密集型行业，行业更新换代极 为迅速。若公司不能紧跟行业技术的发展趋势，充分关注客户多样化的个性需求，后续研 发投入不足，则仍将面临因无法保持持续创新能力导致市场竞争力下降的风险。公司通过 加大研发投入，持续加强在多维感知、人工智能大模型、视频云、大数据、网络通信、网 络安全、机器视觉等领域核心技术的研究， ...

Market and Technology Trends - The company has shifted focus from traditional security to integrating new technologies like AI and AR, enhancing market potential [2] - The company's "Luban" series products, combining digital twin and smart IoT, generated over 1 billion RMB in new business opportunities within a month of launch [2] - The company's multi-modal industry visual model, "Dahua Xinghan," has improved accuracy and generalization, significantly enhancing business competitiveness [4][5] Overseas Business - Overseas operations face challenges due to regional conflicts and US sanctions, but remain a key focus [3] - The company has a global presence with over 3,500 employees, supporting sustainable growth in overseas markets [3] - The company expects overseas business growth to return to double digits in 2024 [3] Financial and Shareholder Returns - Since its IPO in 2008, the company has consistently paid cash dividends, totaling over 5.7 billion RMB [3] - In 2023, the company distributed 2.686 billion RMB in cash dividends, accounting for 36.49% of net profit attributable to shareholders [3] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of at least 30% of non-GAAP net profit over the next three years [3] Strategic Partnerships - The company is deepening its collaboration with China Mobile, focusing on platform and operational models [4] - The partnership with China Mobile is expected to expand beyond the current 1 billion RMB level, with significant future potential [4] - The company is working with China Mobile to develop standardized products and explore new operational models, leveraging AI capabilities [4] Industry-Specific AI Models - The company's "Dahua Xinghan" model has achieved a 10%+ accuracy improvement in urban governance and a 20%+ improvement in the power industry compared to smaller models [5][6] - The model simplifies deployment and reduces costs, with one large model replacing dozens of smaller models [5][6] - The model supports complex cognitive functions, such as real-time simulation and decision-making in urban governance and power industries [5][6] Future Development - The company is actively developing and deploying large models in various industries, including transportation, to enhance AI capabilities [6] - The company's large models enable real-time simulation and decision-making, improving efficiency in urban governance and power industries [6]