Core Viewpoint - Major express delivery companies in China have collectively raised prices in various regions, indicating a shift away from low-price competition and a move towards stabilizing the industry after years of price wars [1][2][5] Price Adjustments - Five major express companies, including Jitu, Zhongtong, Yuantong, Shentong, and Yunda, announced price increases in Shanghai, with a rise of 0.2 to 0.4 yuan per package [1] - Since August, multiple regions such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu have also implemented price hikes, with Guangdong raising the minimum price by 0.4 yuan and Zhejiang adjusting prices by 0.2 to 0.5 yuan [2][3] Industry Context - The express delivery industry has been struggling with low-price competition, leading to a consensus among major players to stop price wars since 2021 [1][5] - A report from招商证券 indicates that from January to May 2025, the national express business volume is expected to grow by 20.1% to 788 billion packages, but the average price per package is projected to drop by 8.2% to 7.5 yuan, highlighting the "volume increase, price drop" trend [1] Regulatory Influence - The State Post Bureau has been actively opposing "involution" in the industry, emphasizing the need for fair competition and the elimination of low-price chaos [5][6] - Following a meeting on July 29, express companies were encouraged to adopt unified pricing strategies to mitigate low-price competition [2][3] Early Signs of Recovery - The "anti-involution" measures have shown initial success, with several A-share express companies reporting an increase in average revenue per package in August [5][6] - For instance, Shentong's average revenue per package rose to 2.06 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 4.6% [5] Future Outlook - Experts predict that there is potential for further price increases in the Zhejiang region before the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with expected hikes of 0.15 to 0.2 yuan per package [4] - The overall trend suggests that the price recovery in the express delivery sector may continue, supported by seasonal demand and operational optimizations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic express delivery industry is shifting from price competition to service value enhancement, with multiple companies announcing price increases across various regions since mid-September [1][2][3]. Price Adjustments - Major express companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Jitu have announced price increases starting September 22 in Shanghai, following similar adjustments in Liaoning and other regions [2]. - The overall price increase ranges from 0.1 to 0.4 yuan per order, with some areas setting minimum prices for deliveries [2]. - This price adjustment follows earlier increases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, where the minimum price was raised by 0.4 yuan, and further increases are expected before the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [2][5]. Industry Trends - Over 10 regions have initiated "anti-involution" actions, indicating a trend of price increases spreading from core e-commerce areas to other regions [3]. - The industry is moving towards a unified pricing strategy to reduce low-price competition, supported by regulatory bodies [3][7]. Business Performance - Data from the National Postal Administration shows that in the first half of 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 956.4 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, while revenue reached 718.78 billion yuan, up 10.1% [4]. - Despite the price increases, the average price per delivery has decreased by 7.7% compared to the previous year, indicating ongoing price pressure in the market [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the price recovery trend will continue, especially with the upcoming peak season for express delivery [5][6]. - Companies are focusing on enhancing service value and employee welfare to transition from a price-driven model to a value-driven approach, aiming for sustainable high-quality development in the industry [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic express delivery industry is shifting from price competition to service value, with multiple companies announcing price increases in various regions since mid-September [1][2][3]. Price Adjustments - Major express companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Jitu have announced price increases starting September 22 in Shanghai, following similar announcements in Liaoning and other regions [2][3]. - The overall price increase ranges from 0.1 to 0.4 yuan per order, with some areas setting minimum prices for deliveries [2]. - This price adjustment follows earlier increases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, where the minimum price was raised by 0.4 yuan, and further increases are expected before the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [2][3]. Industry Trends - Over 10 regions have initiated "anti-involution" actions, indicating a trend from core e-commerce areas to central and northeastern regions [3]. - The National Postal Administration reported that in the first half of 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 956.4 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, while revenue reached 718.78 billion yuan, up 10.1% [3]. Market Stability - Despite the price increases, the overall volume of deliveries remains stable, with companies reporting improved revenues [4]. - The express delivery market is expected to see a gradual implementation of price increases based on local conditions, with minimal impact on clients [4]. Service Value Enhancement - Companies are focusing on enhancing service quality and employee welfare to shift the competitive focus from price to value [5][6]. - The industry is encouraged to move away from a reliance on low prices and adopt a more balanced approach to competition, supported by regulatory frameworks [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a "de-involution" trend, with companies showing signs of revenue recovery and price increases after a prolonged period of price competition [1][3][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - SF Express reported revenue of 24.787 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year increase of 7.86%, with a significant growth in logistics business revenue [1] - Shentong Express achieved a revenue of 4.434 billion yuan in August, up 14.47% year-on-year, with a business volume of 2.147 billion pieces [1] - YTO Express generated 5.39 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 9.82% year-on-year increase, with a business volume of 2.511 billion pieces [1] - Yunda Express reported revenue of 4.119 billion yuan, a 5.16% year-on-year increase, with a business volume of 2.145 billion pieces [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The overall express delivery business revenue in August reached 118.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with a business volume of 16.15 billion pieces, up 12.3% [2] - The industry is witnessing a shift from low-price competition to price increases, with several provinces implementing price hikes [3][4] - The average express delivery price has begun to stabilize after a prolonged decline, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for leading companies [4][5] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The State Post Bureau has emphasized the need for stricter regulation to combat "involution" in the industry, aiming for high-quality development [3] - Multiple provinces have responded to the call for price increases, indicating a coordinated effort to improve the industry's pricing structure [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the national express service companies completed a total of 16.15 billion packages in August, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.3%. However, the growth rate of package volume continues to decline due to the industry's anti-involution measures that suppress the practice of exchanging price for volume [2][11] - The report indicates a significant recovery in single-package revenue for Tongda system companies, with Shentong and YTO showing notable increases in revenue per package [2][26] - The anti-involution policies have effectively curbed the price competition, leading to a shift in focus towards service quality rather than just cost advantages [10][43] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In August, the total business volume of express service companies reached 16.15 billion packages, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The volume of same-city packages decreased by 0.8%, while intercity packages grew by 14.0% [2][11] - The growth rate of package volume has been gradually declining since March, influenced by a high base from the previous year and diminishing marginal returns from the price-for-volume model [2][11] 2. Package Volume Analysis - The growth rate of package volume has slowed down, with significant differentiation among listed express companies. SF Express has maintained a growth rate above 30% since April, while the Tongda system companies have seen a decline in growth rates [2][11][16] - In terms of pricing, Shentong, YTO, and Yunda saw their single-package revenue increase by 4.6%, 3.4%, and 0.5% respectively in August [2][26] 3. Revenue per Package - The report notes that the average single-package revenue in August slightly increased compared to July, while the year-on-year decline was 7.2%. The revenue per package for Shentong and YTO showed significant recovery, indicating a strategic shift away from low-priced packages [26][30] - Shentong's single-package revenue increased by 0.09 yuan, while YTO's increased by 0.07 yuan, suggesting a deliberate adjustment in sales strategy [2][29] 4. Structural Changes - The report indicates that the industry concentration ratio (CR8) remained stable at 86.9, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7. The market share of the four listed companies reached 50.6%, slightly up from the previous year [36][38] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with superior service quality, such as Zhongtong and YTO, as well as Shentong, which has shown significant improvement in operational data [8][43]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed positive growth in August 2025, with revenue reaching 1189.6 billion yuan and business volume at 161.5 billion pieces, marking year-on-year increases of 4.2% and 12.3% respectively [1][2] - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, the industry generated a total revenue of 9583.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, while the total business volume reached 1282.0 billion pieces, up 17.8% year-on-year [1][2] Industry Data - In August 2025, major express companies reported the following revenue: SF Express at 186.57 billion yuan (+14.1%), Shentong at 44.34 billion yuan (+14.5%), Yunda at 41.19 billion yuan (+5.2%), and YTO Express at 53.90 billion yuan (+9.8%) [3] - Business volumes for the same companies were: SF Express at 14.06 billion pieces (+34.8%), Shentong at 21.47 billion pieces (+10.9%), Yunda at 21.45 billion pieces (+8.7%), and YTO Express at 25.11 billion pieces (+11.1%) [3] - The market shares for these companies were reported as follows: SF Express at 8.7%, Shentong at 13.3%, Yunda at 13.3%, and YTO Express at 15.5% [3] Company Performance - For the first eight months of 2025, the revenue figures were: SF Express at 1464.69 billion yuan (+11.3%), Shentong at 334.14 billion yuan (+14.8%), Yunda at 329.70 billion yuan (+6.9%), and YTO Express at 433.33 billion yuan (+13.3%) [4] - Business volumes for these companies were: SF Express at 105.96 billion pieces (+27.9%), Shentong at 166.75 billion pieces (+18.2%), Yunda at 170.33 billion pieces (+14.3%), and YTO Express at 199.57 billion pieces (+20.2%) [4] - The market shares for these companies were: SF Express at 8.3%, Shentong at 13.0%, Yunda at 13.3%, and YTO Express at 15.6% [4] Market Trends - The express delivery industry is benefiting from changes in demand, such as the increase in small and light packages, the rise of reverse logistics, and the advantages of lower-tier markets [5] - The industry is experiencing a shift from price wars to orderly competition, with recent price increases expected to improve profit margins for express companies [5] - The overall performance of the express delivery sector is anticipated to improve as price hikes become more widespread across the country [5] Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with continued growth in the e-commerce market and new demands emerging from lower-tier markets [6] - Companies such as YTO Express and Shentong are highlighted for their strong performance in both volume and price growth [6] - The sector is expected to benefit from a shift away from price wars, presenting long-term investment opportunities [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the express delivery sector, specifically recommending Shentong Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, and Yunda Express [6][20][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a rebound in the express delivery sector driven by price increases and seasonal demand, with expectations for significant profit elasticity in the second half of 2025 [1][3]. - Despite August being a traditional off-peak season, the industry is experiencing improved sentiment due to anti-involution measures, which are expected to sustain price increases through the end of the year [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the normalization of social security and the development of industry regulations will elevate valuation levels in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In August, the total retail sales growth slowed to +3.4% year-on-year, with online retail sales growing at +7.1%, indicating stronger online performance compared to offline [2]. - The express delivery volume in August increased by +12.3% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [2][3]. Price Trends - The average price per delivery piece in August was 7.37 RMB, showing a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of -7.2% [2][3]. - Price increases have been implemented in over 75% of regions, with expectations for continued price recovery in September [2][3]. Company Recommendations - Shentong Express and YTO Express are the top picks, followed by ZTO Express and Yunda Express, with a specific mention of Jitu Express benefiting from high growth in overseas markets [1][3][6]. - The report emphasizes that Shentong Express has shown the best balance of volume and price, leading to the fastest revenue growth in August [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects that the express delivery sector will see a significant rebound in profitability due to ongoing price increases and the impact of anti-involution policies [3][21]. - Specific financial forecasts for companies include adjustments to net profit estimates for the years 2025-2027, reflecting the competitive landscape and pricing strategies [21][23].

来源：证券日报 作者：王镜茹 7月8日，国家邮政局党组召开会议，要求按照"五统一、一开放"基本要求，进一步加强行业监管，完善 邮政快递领域市场制度规则，旗帜鲜明反对"内卷式"竞争，依法依规整治末端服务质量问题，为建设全 国统一大市场贡献行业力量。 目前来看，快递行业反"内卷"已初步显现成效。A股快递公司披露的8月份运营数据显示，多家企业单 票收入环比改善。具体来看，申通快递单票收入为2.06元，同比增长3%，环比上升4.6%；圆通速递单 票收入为2.15元，环比上涨3.4%，同比跌幅缩小；韵达股份单票收入为1.92元，环比微增0.01元。 单票价格回升的同时，企业也在通过优化运营、提升自动化水平等方式降低成本。有快递公司内部人士 表示，调价主要针对的是电商特价件、轻小件以及大客户的低价件，并不是所有电商快递件都涨，对个 人寄递没有影响。 添翼数字经济智库高级专家吴婉莹对《证券日报》记者表示："如何让涨价在末端真正落地，并在企业 盈利与市场承受力之间找到平衡，成为行业面临的重要考验。提价更多是一种权宜之策。从短期看，快 递公司需要通过优化服务或产品分层来证明涨价的合理性；从长期看，唯有依靠行业整合与竞争模式的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [13] Core Insights - The transportation industry is expected to see improvements in profitability across various sub-sectors in Q3 2025, driven by domestic demand recovery and resilient international demand [2][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] Summary by Sub-Sector Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing subdued demand but is benefiting from reduced costs, leading to an overall improvement in profitability for Q3 2025. The international flight recovery remains strong, and oil prices have significantly decreased [6][19][24] Airports - Domestic airport traffic is recovering, with international flights also increasing. Revenue is expected to improve steadily, with key airports benefiting from both domestic and international demand growth [2][6][24][26] Express Delivery - The "anti-involution" policy is driving price increases in the express delivery sector, leading to improved profitability for e-commerce deliveries. However, operational costs are temporarily pressuring profit margins [2][6][28][30] Logistics - The logistics sector is stabilizing, with major players expected to see profit growth due to improved supply chain performance and resilient cross-border logistics profitability [2][6][7][31] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector is witnessing a divergence in profitability among different shipping types. While container shipping faces challenges, oil tanker profits are improving due to favorable market conditions [2][6][8][33][37] Ports - Port operations are expected to see improved profitability in bulk cargo handling, while container throughput remains resilient despite external pressures [2][6][9][39] Highways - Highway traffic is relatively stable, with a slight increase in profitability anticipated for Q3 2025, supported by steady freight and passenger traffic [2][10][41] Railways - Railway passenger and freight volumes are showing mixed trends, with a focus on opportunities arising from high-speed rail transformations. Overall, passenger transport is expected to grow, while freight transport is improving [2][11][43][44]

长期以来，激烈的价格战持续挤压快递行业利润，成为制约行业健康发展的瓶颈。如今，随着监管力度 加大及行业共识逐步形成，快递行业正释放出告别价格战、迈向理性竞争的信号。 9月19日，申通快递（002468）股份有限公司(以下简称"申通快递")、圆通速递（600233）股份有限公 司(以下简称"圆通速递")、韵达控股集团股份有限公司(以下简称"韵达股份（002120）")、中通快递股 份有限公司以及极兔速递环球有限公司的上海区域公司均发布告客户书，内容为："为执行国家关于各 行业'反内卷式'竞争，杜绝低价扰乱市场秩序的不当行为，持续为客户提供稳定的服务，回归良性发 展，经研究决定，自2025年9月22日零时起，对上海区域所有用户的快递收件价格进行上调，请广大用 户及时与属地网点询价确认。" 事实上，除上海外，近期全国多地快递市场也相继迎来涨价。7月中旬，浙江义乌启动涨价，快递底价 从1.1元/单涨至1.2元/单；8月4日起，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/单，单价已提升至1.4元以上；8月 20日起，福建省多家快递企业向其加盟网点及客户发布通知，明确规定0.3千克以内的快递最低价格不 得低于1.5元。 7月8日，国 ...