Group 1: Shipping Industry - The oil shipping market is expected to see a recovery in rates due to OPEC+'s decision to increase production, with VLCC freight rates experiencing significant increases [1][21] - The current supply situation is relatively tight, and any marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to recommendations for COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1][21] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to weakening cargo volumes and ongoing trade risks, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][25] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The domestic passenger flight volume has shown a slight increase, with overall and domestic flight volumes up by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively compared to the previous week, indicating a recovery trend [2][36] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved slightly, suggesting a mixed performance in the aviation sector [2][36] - Investment recommendations include China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, as the aviation sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery [2][45] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy initiated on July 1 aims to reduce competition in the express delivery sector, with price increases already observed in regions like Zhejiang and Guangdong [3][53] - The policy is expected to lead to improved profitability and service quality in the express delivery industry, with a focus on monitoring the execution and sustainability of price increases [3][54] - Recommendations include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, as these companies are likely to benefit from the policy changes and market dynamics [3][66] Group 4: Logistics Sector - The logistics sector is facing challenges due to external economic pressures and internal strategy adjustments, with companies like DeBang Logistics experiencing significant profit declines [79] - Eastern Airlines Logistics is highlighted as a leader in the air cargo market, benefiting from a strong market share and operational efficiencies [79][80] - Investment focus should be on companies that can adapt to the changing market conditions and maintain competitive advantages [79][80]

想要接住流量的，不只是西安 全国物流格局又有新变化。 8月12日，丝路电商班列（西安—乌鲁木齐）开行突破500列。据本地媒体报道，该趟班列较公路运输快5小时左右，能降低10%物流成本。自其去年3月开 行以来，京东、顺丰、极兔等快递公司陆续加入，最高能实现55车满编。 这趟班列有多特殊？从数据上看，它连接的两头，新疆和陕西，已经成为近两年快递业的"增长极"。今年上半年，陕西快递业务量增长48.6%至约15.5亿 件，增速高居全国第一，而新疆也增长35.6%至约2.5亿件，增速位居第五。 | 0 | | 500000 | 10000000 | 1500000 | | 20000000 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 广东 | 2342903.9 | | 17.70 | | | | | | 浙江 | 1614384.3 | 8.4 0 | | | | | | | 江苏 | 755439.2 | | 18.5 . | | | | | | 河北 | 572120.9 | | | | | 38.2-0 | | | 河南 | 542275.4 ...

跟踪1000价值稳健的公募基金包括：华夏中证智选1000价值稳健策略联接A、华夏中证智选1000价值稳 健策略联接C、华夏中证智选1000价值稳健策略ETF。 从指数持仓来看，中证智选1000价值稳健策略指数十大权重分别为：方大特钢（1.22%）、金田股份 （1.16%）、奥士康（1.08%）、申通快递（1.08%）、吉比特（1.03%）、康缘药业（1.01%）、骆驼股 份（0.99%）、宁波华翔（0.98%）、柳药集团（0.98%）、塔牌集团（0.97%）。 从中证智选1000价值稳健策略指数持仓的市场板块来看，深圳证券交易所占比51.69%、上海证券交易 所占比48.31%。 从中证智选1000价值稳健策略指数持仓样本的行业来看，工业占比26.06%、原材料占比17.88%、医药 卫生占比14.26%、可选消费占比12.33%、信息技术占比8.56%、公用事业占比5.08%、通信服务占比 4.50%、主要消费占比4.42%、金融占比3.78%、能源占比1.61%、房地产占比1.54%。 资料显示，指数样本每季度调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年3月、6月、9月和12月的第二个星 期五的下一交易日。权重因 ...

有消息显示，8月5日起，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，均价涨至1.4元以上，基层网点派费增加 0.1元/票。省内各快递企业经品牌总部同意，各家均不得低于1.4元成本价揽收。 宏观来看，根据国家邮政局统计的快递业务量与收入推算，2007年国内快递平均单票价格为28.55元， 而到了今年6月，这一价格已下滑至7.49元。 具体到快递企业，今年6月，顺丰、申通、韵达、圆通、中通的票均收入分别为13.67元、1.99元、1.91 元、2.10元、1.99元，而在几大快递企业均完成上市的2017年，各家票均收入为23.13元、3.24元、1.94 元、3.68元、1.96元。可以看到，只有中通微涨，顺丰、申通、圆通的降幅更是均在40%左右。 业内人士表示，价格战没有真正的赢家，仅仅以价换量，显然是行不通了。快递企业需要在保持竞争力 的同时，寻找更为可持续的发展策略。 据广州日报，8月7日，记者向多位业内人士求证后确认，"该消息属实，快递确实涨价了。"广州一家加 盟制快递企业的网店老板告诉记者，目前该政策5日已经在实施，"没办法，上个月最低八毛多的单子也 接了，一直亏着钱做，现在这样起码能收支平衡了。" 值得注意的 ...

Summary of Shentong Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shentong Express - **Industry**: Express Delivery Key Points and Arguments 1. **Direct Operation Rate**: Shentong Express has increased its direct operation rate to 94%, significantly enhancing operational efficiency and processing capacity, effectively reducing unit costs [2][3][4] 2. **Capacity Expansion**: The company plans to increase its capacity by nearly 80% over three years with a capital expenditure of 10 billion, raising daily capacity from 42 million items in 2021 to approximately 75 million by 2024 [2][3] 3. **Business Volume Growth**: In 2023, Shentong Express achieved a business volume growth rate of 35.2%, significantly surpassing the industry average, narrowing the market share gap with Yunda [2][6] 4. **Profitability Improvement**: Cost control and revenue optimization measures have improved the net profit per ticket, with expectations for net profit to double due to price increases in the South China region [2][12] 5. **Free Cash Flow**: The company is expected to achieve positive free cash flow in 2024, driven by operational model changes and capacity enhancements [2][7] 6. **Industry Policy Support**: National postal policies are aimed at preventing vicious competition in the express delivery industry, promoting high-quality development and protecting frontline employees' rights [2][8] 7. **Acquisition of Daniao Logistics**: The acquisition of Daniao Logistics for 360 million yuan is expected to help Shentong become the third-largest player in the industry and open up new cooperation opportunities [4][17] 8. **Future Profit Projections**: For 2025, Shentong Express anticipates a net profit of over 300 million yuan, with a net profit per ticket of 0.05 yuan, which could double if it reaches 0.10 yuan [4][13] 9. **Market Valuation**: The current P/E ratio is below 9, indicating that the company is undervalued compared to the industry average [4][13] 10. **Regional Price Increases**: A price increase of 0.4 yuan in the South China region is expected to significantly boost profits for Shentong and its competitors [12][14] Additional Important Content 1. **Operational Efficiency**: The company has optimized franchise management and product offerings, particularly in heavy cargo, which has contributed to its growth since 2018 [3][6] 2. **Response to Market Conditions**: Shentong Express has adapted to market changes, including the impact of the pandemic and competition from Jitu Express, which led to losses in 2020-2021 [3][6] 3. **Long-term Development Potential**: The company is well-positioned for long-term growth due to its strategic initiatives and partnerships, particularly with Alibaba [16][19] 4. **Risks**: Potential risks include a return to aggressive price competition or slower-than-expected growth in business volume, which could impact performance [20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in express delivery base prices in Guangdong and Yiwu reflects concerns over the intense competition and low profitability in the express delivery industry, which has led to a downward trend in per-package revenue for major companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Starting from August 4, the base price for express delivery in Guangdong has been raised by 0.4 yuan per package, bringing the average price to over 1.4 yuan [1]. - Yiwu also raised its express delivery base price by 0.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan starting July 18 [1]. - The overall express delivery costs have increased by approximately 0.4 yuan, although delivery personnel have not yet received news of a corresponding increase in their compensation [1]. Group 2: Revenue Trends - Major express companies, including Shentong, Yunda, Zhongtong, and Yunda, have seen a significant decline in per-package revenue, with figures for 2024 projected at 2.05 yuan, 2.3 yuan, 1.21 yuan, and 2.01 yuan respectively, representing a decrease of about 30% to 40% compared to 2019 [3]. - In June, Shentong and Yunda reported further declines in per-package revenue, dropping below the 2 yuan mark to 1.99 yuan and 1.91 yuan respectively, while Zhongtong decreased to 2.1 yuan [5]. - SF Express maintains a relatively stable per-package revenue of around 15 to 16 yuan, but has also experienced a decline of 11% to 14% compared to the previous year due to industry price wars [5][12]. Group 3: Delivery Challenges - The continuous decline in per-package revenue has led express companies to implement cost control measures, including reducing delivery fees for last-mile services [7]. - The delivery personnel face pressure to choose between home delivery and depositing packages at collection points, with a significant increase in the use of collection points, reaching a 72% entry rate in 2022 [11]. - Complaints regarding non-delivery to specified addresses have surged, with over 19,000 complaints related to this issue, highlighting the challenges in balancing delivery efficiency and service quality [11]. Group 4: Impact on Low-Cost Merchants - The recent price adjustments in express delivery services are expected to significantly impact low-cost merchants, as the low logistics cost is crucial for their survival [15]. - Merchants have indicated that a delivery cost exceeding 3 yuan is no longer sustainable for their profit margins, as the historical rate has been around 1 yuan for small packages [15].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 605050 | 福然德 | 15.55 | -10.01% | 24.83万 | 4.05亿 | | 002800 | 天顺股份 | 16.56 | -5.43% | 44.05万 | 7.84亿 | | 002468 | 申通快递 | 16.07 | -5.19% | 59.07万 | 9.63亿 | | 002120 | 韵达股份 | 8.29 | -2.59% | 99.00万 | 8.27亿 | | 002485 | ST雪发 | 3.82 | -2.05% | 5.40万 | 2060.31万 | | 002492 | 恒基达鑫 | 7.39 | -1.60% | 15.16万 | 1.13亿 | | 300350 | 华鹏飞 | 6.72 | -1.18% | 29.70万 | 2.00亿 | | 600603 | ST广物 | 8.39 | -0.94% | 13.98万 | 1.18亿 | | 000626 | 远大控股 | 4 ...

据报道，8月4日起，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，单票均价涨至1.4元以上，按照有关部门要求， 各家均不得低于1.4元成本价揽收，否则将遭受重罚。8月5日起，通达系（申通、圆通、中通、韵达） 已开始执行涨价。中国新闻周刊从快递网点、电商从业者及多位行业观察人士处了解到，本轮广东快递 涨价主要覆盖的是特价电商轻件及大客户低价件，尤其是0.3千克以内的包裹。就这一调整是否属实、 后续是否还将有其他梯度的涨价动作，记者分别联系前述快递公司求证，截至发稿并未获得回复。（中 国新闻周刊） ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite ongoing price wars leading to a decline in service prices, major express delivery companies in China have maintained steady growth in revenue and net profit in the first half of the year, indicating overall market expansion [1][5]. Revenue Performance - In June, three companies reported year-on-year revenue growth: SF Express achieved 16.704 billion yuan, up 3.59%; Shentong Express reported 3.36 billion yuan, up 12.67%; and YTO Express reached 4.246 billion yuan, up 3.39% [2]. - Yunda Express lagged behind with a revenue of 3.665 billion yuan, down 11.47%, and a business volume of 1.581 billion parcels, down 2.04% [2]. - SF Express expects a net profit of 4.02 billion to 4.22 billion yuan for the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 60%-68% [2]. Business Volume Trends - In June, SF Express experienced a slight decline in business volume, handling 1.017 billion parcels, down 0.29%; Shentong Express saw a significant increase of 28.26% to 1.523 billion parcels; YTO Express grew by 14.03% to 1.792 billion parcels [2]. - Yunda Express's business volume decreased, but it anticipates a net profit growth of 37.31%-75.12% for the first half of the year [2]. Single Ticket Revenue - SF Express reversed its declining trend with a single ticket revenue of 16.42 yuan, up 3.86%; however, Shentong, YTO, and Yunda reported declines in single ticket revenue [3]. - Shentong's single ticket revenue fell to 2.21 yuan, down 11.95%; YTO's to 2.37 yuan, down 9.33%; and Yunda's to 2.32 yuan, down 9.73% [3]. Industry Outlook - The overall performance of the express delivery sector shows signs of stabilization and recovery, with most companies adapting to market demand and improving operational efficiency [5]. - The second half of the year is expected to see continued growth in the express delivery industry, driven by economic recovery and e-commerce market expansion [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the transportation industry, highlighting potential opportunities in various segments such as shipping, infrastructure, aviation, and express delivery [2][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the improvement in oil shipping market conditions and the potential for price increases in the express delivery sector, driven by a reduction in price competition due to "anti-involution" policies [1][8][24]. Shipping - The oil shipping industry is experiencing improved market conditions, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, which may lead to better freight rates in the second half of the year [8][16]. - Container shipping rates have declined, necessitating close monitoring of US-China trade negotiations [8][12]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong Q2 performance, such as德翔海运, 海丰国际, 中谷物流, and 中远海特 [8][16]. Infrastructure - The report notes that highway passenger traffic decreased by 4.0% year-on-year in June 2025, while cargo traffic showed a slight decline [18][55]. - Port cargo throughput increased by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in the infrastructure sector [18][55]. - The report recommends investing in leading highway and port companies, such as 招商公路, 皖通高速, 唐山港, and 青岛港, due to their attractive dividend yields [20][55]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% in 2024, with a 19.3% increase in business volume in the first half of 2025 [24][68]. - The report highlights the initiation of price increases in the express delivery sector in South China, which is expected to alleviate price competition and support valuation recovery [24][68]. - Recommended companies in this sector include 中通快递-W, 圆通速递, 申通快递, and 韵达股份 [24][68]. Aviation - The report indicates a 1.9% week-on-week increase in passenger traffic, with domestic ticket prices experiencing a year-on-year decline of 5.4% [25][26]. - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from "anti-involution" measures aimed at reducing excessive competition, which may enhance valuation recovery [25][26]. - Recommended airlines include 中国国航, 南方航空, 吉祥航空, 春秋航空, and 华夏航空 [26].