Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly in light of recent developments in Venezuela and the increase in new ship prices [1][2]. Core Insights - Venezuela's political changes are expected to benefit compliant tanker markets, with a potential increase in oil exports leading to higher demand for Aframax tankers and VLCCs [3][4]. - New ship prices have shown an upward trend, with a 0.5% increase reported, particularly in gas carriers which rose by 1% [3]. - The report highlights a significant drop in VLCC freight rates, which fell by 36% week-on-week, while the Atlantic market remains relatively stable [3][4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - The report notes that the recent escalation in Venezuela's situation could lead to a 1.4% increase in compliant VLCC oil transport demand and a 4.0% increase for Aframax tankers [3][4]. - The average VLCC freight rate was reported at $43,895 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping to $38,690 per day, a decrease of 45% from the previous week [3][4]. New Ship Prices - New ship prices have increased by 0.5% to 185.59 points, although they are down 1.85% compared to the beginning of 2025 [3][4]. Oil and Product Transport - The LR2-TC1 freight rate increased by 5% to $42,671 per day, supported by tight capacity in previous weeks [3]. - The report indicates a decline in MR average freight rates by 5% to $23,103 per day, with the Atlantic market remaining stable despite the holiday season [3][4]. Air Transport - The report anticipates significant improvements in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger volumes, recommending several airlines for investment [3][4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for future performance [3][4]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are expected to maintain steady growth, with recent data showing a slight decrease in volumes [3][4].

一、担保情况概述 证券代码：002468 证券简称：申通快递 公告编号：2025-091 申通快递股份有限公司 关于对外提供担保的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 （一）担保事项审议情况 申通快递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 8 月 28 日召开第六届董事会第十三 次会议和第六届监事会第十二次会议审议通过了《关于对外提供担保的议案》，同意公司全资子 公司申通快递有限公司（以下简称"申通有限"）为浙江丹鸟物流科技有限公司（以下简称"丹 鸟物流"）及其下属控股子公司上海万象文化发展有限公司（以下简称"上海万象"）、湖南芝 麻开门供应链管理有限公司（以下简称"湖南芝麻开门"） 、昆明东骏物流有限公司（以下简称 "昆明东骏"）、海南芝麻供应链管理有限公司（以下简称"海南芝麻供应链"）、福州芝麻开 门供应链管理有限公司（以下简称"福州芝麻开门"）提供不超过 1,031.20 万元担保，用于替换 浙江菜鸟供应链管理有限公司（以下简称"浙江菜鸟"）（含下属子公司）为丹鸟物流及其下属 控股子公司提供的 1,031.20 万元履约保函 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the establishment of Zhejiang Shenzhao Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 20 million yuan, focusing on the development of intelligent robots and related technologies [1] - The company's business scope includes research and development of intelligent robots, IoT technology, processing of mechanical parts, manufacturing of industrial robots, and sales of intelligent warehousing equipment [1] - Zhejiang Shenzhao Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. is wholly owned by Shentong Express (002468) through indirect shareholding [1]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a focus on efficiency and service competition, indicating a need for independent thinking and adaptation to new challenges [1] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth rates, with the overall business volume growth dropping to 5% in November, down from 20% earlier in the year, suggesting a shift towards a more mature and stable growth phase [3] Group 1: Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" campaign initiated by the State Post Bureau aims to address the industry's low-price competition, leading to improved profitability for express companies, although some frontline outlets still face challenges due to rising costs [2] - The double eleven shopping festival saw a total of 139.38 billion packages collected, marking a 9% increase from the previous year, but the growth rate is slowing, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior and market saturation [3] - The introduction of tax reporting requirements for online platforms starting October 1, 2025, will expose fraudulent activities such as order brushing, pushing the industry towards compliance and authenticity [5] Group 2: Company Developments - YTO Express launched its strategic hub, the Dongfang Tiandi Port, with an investment of 12.2 billion yuan, marking a significant step in its internationalization strategy and aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the logistics sector [6] - Shentong Express completed the acquisition of Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, enhancing its operational capabilities and positioning itself in the "quality express" market while Alibaba shifts its focus towards core strategic areas [7] - JD Logistics and SF Express are expanding their international operations, with JD launching a new self-operated B2C brand in Saudi Arabia and SF establishing international air routes, indicating a strong push towards global market penetration [14] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of AI technologies in the express delivery sector is transforming operations, with applications in route optimization and operational efficiency, exemplified by YTO's "smart routing" system [9] - The rise of robotics in the industry is being observed, with advancements in sorting and delivery processes, although challenges remain in achieving efficiency comparable to human workers [15] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The frequent switching of return logistics among various express companies highlights the competitive nature of the market, with companies vying for the more profitable return business as opposed to standard deliveries [10] - The emergence of "sheep shearing" tactics among consumers exploiting platform loopholes poses a challenge for express companies, necessitating stricter regulations to protect the integrity of the logistics chain [12]

| | 皇公司 都在用的商业查询工具 | 音老板 商关系 音风险 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 家中小企业发展子其全旗下机构 | 浙江申造智能科技有限公司 | × 天眼一下 叶 应用 ▼ | | 商务合作 | | 意本信信 9 | 法律诉讼 | 经营风险 | 经营信息 公司发展 | | 知 | | 工商信息 ● | | | | | | | 工商信息 历史工商信息0 | | | | | | | 企业名称 | 浙江申造智能科技有限公司 | | | | | | 法定代表人 | 又 邓根有 | 登记状态 ② | 开业 | | 天眼评分 2 | | | | 成立日期 | 2025-12-29 | | | | 统一社会信用代码 2 | 91330122MAK5918D78 | 注册资本 ② | 2000万人民币 | | 实缴资本 | | 工商注册号 | | 纳税人识别号 2 | 91330122MAK5918D78 | | 组织机构代码 | | 营 朝限 | 2025-12-29 至 无固定期限 | 纳税人资质 | | | 核准目期 | | 企业类型 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，中长期来看，考虑到当前贸易形势风险仍存、红海航线存在 复航可能性、且仍有较多运力会在年内交付，预计2026年集运运价有较大压力。未来国内经济回暖后航 空业绩具有较大的弹性空间。该行建议低点配置航空板块，风险收益比较优，以时间换空间。目前，快 递反内卷政策的持续性较强，预计有望持续明年春节。得益于反内卷提价，该行预计四季度快递公司的 单票利润环比均将继续提升，业绩弹性有望兑现。 国信证券主要观点如下： 航运 油运方面，由于进入圣诞假期，市场交易清淡，中东线运价高位持续回调，近期美国多次扣押委内瑞拉 附近的油轮，造成市场船只的紧张情绪，短期有事件催化作用。该行认为虽然油运已经逐步进入淡季， 但是当下由于原油运输合规市场需求结构优化，油运供需结构仍然处于中长期的改善周期当中，运价中 枢有望继续上行，继续推荐中远海能、招商轮船。集运方面，短期受春节前传统旺季预期推动，运价仍 在上升通道，而近期马士基旗下货船刚完成了近两年来的首次红海航行，短期红海大规模复航仍然面临 一些挑战，但整体来看2026年复航可能性增加。中长期来看，考虑到当前贸易形势风险仍存、红海航线 存在复航可能性、且 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, indicating a recovery phase supported by supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the aviation sector [1][75]. - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth in business volume of 14.9% and revenue growth of 7.1% from January to November 2025, reflecting a robust demand environment [3][18]. - The shipping industry is experiencing fluctuations, with the BDI index at 1900 points, down 10.49% week-on-week, while the CCFI and SCFI indices show slight increases, indicating mixed market conditions [59][61]. Group 2: Aviation Sector Insights - Domestic flight volume reached 86,137 flights during the week of December 19-25, 2025, with a daily average of 12,305 flights, reflecting a 1.42% increase week-on-week and a 1.21% increase year-on-year [12][13]. - Domestic passenger volume for the same period was 12.03 million, up 3.48% week-on-week and 6.04% year-on-year, indicating strong recovery in air travel demand [12][13]. - The average ticket price for domestic flights increased by 5.47% week-on-week, while the average bare ticket price rose by 6.08%, suggesting upward pricing pressure in the aviation market [12][13]. Group 3: Express Delivery Sector Analysis - Weekly average collection volume for express delivery was approximately 580 million pieces, with a slight decrease of 1.74% week-on-week, while delivery volume increased by 3.35% [17]. - Year-to-date average collection volume stands at about 544 million pieces per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.98% [17]. - The express delivery industry is characterized by a CR8 index of 87%, indicating a high level of market concentration, with major players like SF Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express showing varied growth rates [21][27]. Group 4: Shipping Sector Developments - The international dry bulk market is facing a decline, with the BDI index down 10.49%, while the international container shipping market shows resilience with the SCFI index up 6.66% [59][61]. - The VLCC-TCE rate in the international oil shipping market decreased by 30.29%, indicating volatility in oil transport pricing [60]. - The report highlights the potential for a recovery in shipping rates driven by demand from the oil and dry bulk sectors, particularly as geopolitical factors may influence pricing dynamics [81]. Group 5: Recommendations and Focus Areas - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, reflecting confidence in the aviation sector's recovery [4][76]. - The report suggests focusing on logistics companies like Milkrun and Hongchuan Wisdom, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in chemical logistics and warehousing [80]. - In the shipping sector, companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping are highlighted for their potential to benefit from the oil and dry bulk market recovery [81].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 交通运输 国际航线旅客周转亮眼，海外电商双十二 GMV 激增 周观点：2025 年 10 月、11 月，国际航线旅客周转量同比 2019 年同期分别 增长 12.9%、14.3%，增速加快。航班管家数据显示，截至 12 月 22 日，2026 年元旦假期经济舱平均票价（不含税）597 元，同比 2024 年下降 1.1%、同 比 2025 年增长 6.7%。继续看好"扩内需"及"反内卷"下航空板块中长期 景气度。TikTok Shop 东南亚"12.12"大促 GMV 同比飙升 2.7 倍。海外电商 GMV 的爆发式增长带动快递业务量迅猛增长，相关标的为极兔速递。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.37%，跑输上证指数 0.51 个百 分点（上证指数上涨 1.88%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，涨幅前三名 的板块分别为航运、公交、物流，涨幅分别为 4.70%、4.65%、1.96%；仅航 空运输、铁路运输板块下跌，跌幅分别为-0.75%、-0.73%。 出行：2025 年 1-11 月，民航旅客周转量 12, ...

2025年，"反内卷"成为快递行业关键词，快递单票价格出现上涨。从数据上来看，电商快递行业需求仍然保持韧性增长。此外，无人机、无人车等智能技术 在快递行业的推广应用不断加快。随着盈利水平改善，A股快递板块的投资机会值得重视。快递业务量维持韧性增长 得益于我国完备的互联网基础设施建设、物流网络及多样化电商平台，我国拥有世界最大电商市场。近年来，短视频和直播带货等新兴电商模式迅速发展。 电商与快递是"火借风势，风助火威"的共生关系，电商为快递提供了海量需求，快递则为电商的用户体验提供了核心保障，两者在相互成就中实现了共赢发 展。 国泰海通证券指出，我国快递行业已经进入中低速增长阶段，核心驱动力从"渗透率提升"转向"结构性增长"，具体表现为以下三个特征： 1.包裹小型化：平价商品复购频次增加，推动包裹数量增长； 2.逆向物流：电商退货率攀升，带动逆向物流需求； 3.新模式拓展：直播电商、社区团购等新兴场景，持续创造快递需求。 2024年，在全面推进"消费品以旧换新"政策、电商平台创新性调整促销周期策略等因素的影响下，消费市场潜能加速释放，带动相关商品销售保持增长，电 商平台销售额表现亮眼。根据国家统计局公布的数据， ...

受"双11"电商节及海外"黑五"跨境寄递增长等因素影响，每年11月都是快递行业全年最大的业务旺季， 其当月成绩单也通常被视作来年快递市场格局最重要的风向标之一，一直备受关注。 近日，四家A股快递公司顺丰控股（SZ002352，股价38.27元，市值1929亿元，以下或简称顺丰）、圆 通速递（SH600233，股价16.83元，市值576.01亿元，以下或简称圆通）、申通快递（SZ002468，股价 14.33元，市值219.36亿元，以下或简 称 申 通）和 韵 达 股 份（SZ002120，股价6.86元，市值198.89亿 元，以下或简称韵达）披露11月月度经营情况。从具体数据看，顺丰业务量增速继续领跑，申通因并表 浙江丹鸟物流科技有限公司（以下或简称丹鸟物流）实现收入和业务量大幅增长，而韵达则成为"通达 系"中唯一业务量同比下滑的公司。 《每日经济新闻》记者了解到，这也就意味着，国内主要上市快递企业的业绩分化依然明显。一方 面，"反内卷"成为行业共识后，单票收入自低点修复，价格竞争趋缓；另一方面，由于企业之间战略选 择的差异，在业务量与收入增速上形成了鲜明对比。快递行业竞争正从单纯的价格与规模扩张，逐步 ...