"快递进村"和电商业务成为快递公司业绩增长的助力。 圆通在财报中表示，报告期内，公司主营快递业务收入主要来源于电子商务用户，业务结构较为集中。如果未来电子商务 行业增速进一步放缓，而公司除电子商务之外的其他业务板块不能实现较快增长从而提高在整体业务结构中的占比，则公 司经营业绩的持续快速增长可能受到不利影响。 圆通财报还提及，跨境消费需求扩容推动国际业务提质增效，伴随"丝路电商""快递出海"等项目的实施落地，国际及港澳 台快件寄递网络日臻成熟。此外，个性化消费需求催生服务场景多元化，消费者对生鲜冷链、即时配送、逆向物流等服务 需求亦快速增长。 除了上述变化，过去一年快递公司也在提高服务质量。2024 年 3 月，新修订的《快递市场管理办法》正式施行，明确按需 投递原则，强化末端服务监管。圆通财报显示，公司在2024年推行按需派送，提高派件履约率，并不断加强虚假签收考核 管控。截至报告期末，公司虚假签收率同比下降近 28%。 近日，多家快递公司发布了2024年财报。从财报数据看，降本增效仍然是今年快递业关注的重点。 此外，"快递进村"和电商业务成为快递公司业绩增长的助力。在技术应用上，快递业逐步推进无人配送技术 ...

韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨申通快递（002468.SZ） [Table_Title] 量本利正循环加速，业绩弹性持续兑现 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024Q4，公司营业收入为 136.8 亿元，同比增长 18.0%；归母净利润为 3.9 亿元，同比增长 223.8%。2025Q1，公司营业收入为 120.0 亿元，同比增长 18.4%；归母净利润为 2.4 亿元， 同比增长 24.0%。四季度公司件量增速领跑，规模效应释放下单票归母净利同比增长 0.035 元 至 0.059 元。2025Q1，行业竞争逐步加剧，公司发力精益化管理叠加件量增长强劲推动降本， 有效对冲价格竞争压力，单票归母净利达到 0.041 元，同比持平。展望后市，申通进入管理变 革的收获期，以体验和利润为先，寻求量利齐升的健康发展，单票利润提升值得期待。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 申通快递（00246 ...

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Antong Holdings reported a significant increase in net profit of 371.53% year-on-year for Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 2.042 billion yuan, up 26.35% [3][14] - Air China announced its capacity deployment plan for the summer and autumn of 2025, with Guangzhou Baiyun Airport achieving over 5 million inbound and outbound passengers 26 days earlier than in 2024 [3][16] - Shentong Express reported a net profit growth of over 200% for 2024, with the number of A-level logistics companies in China surpassing 10,000 [3][22] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - Antong Holdings' Q1 2025 report shows a net profit increase of 371.53%, driven by improved operational efficiency and freight rates [14] - Air China's summer and autumn capacity plan includes new international routes and a significant increase in passenger traffic at Guangzhou Baiyun Airport [16][17] - Shentong Express achieved a record net profit growth of 205.24% in 2024, reflecting strong performance in the logistics sector [22][23] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air freight prices from China to the Asia-Pacific region remained stable in early April 2025, with various indices showing slight fluctuations [26][27] - Domestic freight volume in March 2025 increased by 20.30% year-on-year, with total express business revenue reaching 124.6 billion yuan [52] - The number of A-level logistics companies in China has exceeded 10,000, indicating significant growth in the logistics industry [25] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [5] - Pay attention to e-commerce and express delivery opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5] - Look into investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [5]

公司通过降本降费对冲降价，2024 年单票利润提升，2025Q1 稳定 事件: 2025 年4 月24 日，申通快递发布2024 年年报和2025 年一季报： 2024 年，公司实现营业收入471.69 亿元，同比增长15.26%；归母净利润为10.40 亿元，同比增长 205.24%。扣非归母净利润为10.17 亿元，同比增长199.55%。 2025Q1，公司实现营业收入119.99 亿元，同比增长18.43%；归母净利润为2.36 亿元，同比增长 24.04%。扣非归母净利润为2.31 亿元，同比增长23.78%。 业务方面，2024 年，申通快递完成快递业务量227.3 亿票，同比增长29.8%，市占率13.0%，同比提升 0.83pct，单票快递收入2.05 元，同比降低8.1%。公司2025Q1 业务量完成快递业务量58.1 亿票，同比增 长26.6%，市占率12.9%，同比提升0.5pct，单票快递收入2.04 元，同比降低6.2%。 投资要点: 公司件量保持高速增长，市占率同比持续提升 公司2024 年快递件量增长29.8%，较同期行业快递件量增速21.5%高8.3pct，市占率同比提升0.8 ...

快递 3 月数据点评：顺丰件量增速超预 期，通达系价格竞争依旧激烈 事件：快递行业 3 月件量同比增长 20.3%，行业增速维持较高水平， 价格竞争依旧激烈。 点评： 3 月快递件量增速维持高位，顺丰增速超预期：3 月全国快递服务企业 业务完成量 166.56 亿件，同比增长 20.3%，增速较 1-2 月累计的增长 22.4%略有放缓，但依旧维持在较高水平。分类型看，3 月同城件业务 量同比增长 4.3%，异地件业务量增长 21.9%。 3 月顺丰业务量增速提升至 25.4%，高于其他通达系上市公司；公司市 场份额同比提升 0.3pct。公司公告称其高增长主要得益于公司凭借丰 富的产品矩阵及综合物流解决方案能力，持续渗透生产制造和生活消 费各类物流场景，有效满足客户多元化业务需求。 通达系中，圆通、申通及韵达的增速与行业均值都较为接近，其中圆 通增速略高，结合其单票收入的变化看，圆通近期对于市场份额的诉 求较为强烈。3 月圆通市场份额同比提升 0.3pct；申通市场份额同比基 本持平，韵达份额下降 0.3pct。 圆通单票收入降幅较大，价格竞争依旧激烈：价格方面，行业的价格 竞争依旧激烈。通达系方面，申通、 ...

来源：中工网 为庆祝"五一"国际劳动节，深入贯彻关爱新就业形态劳动者"暖蜂行动"部署，近日，由福建省福州市总 工会、福州市邮政管理局联合主办，福州市总工会直属工会、福州市快递行业工会联合会共同承办的 2025年快递行业体育竞赛活动在榕城火热举行。来自顺丰、邮政、京东等7家头部快递企业及福州国有 资本投资运营集团有限公司（以下简称"市国资集团"）代表队的200余名职工，通过篮球、拔河两大竞 技项目，生动展现了新时代快递从业者团结奋进的风采。 球场上， 参赛职工你争我夺，毫不相让。福州市总工会直属工会供图 行业精英齐聚 赛场激扬风采 作为福州市快递行业全年规模最大的体育盛事，本次赛事特别邀请市国资集团作为快递末端企业代表参 赛。开幕式上，身着各色工装的方阵整齐列队，印有企业标识的旗帜迎风招展，展现出行业蓬勃发展的 生机活力。 篮球赛场战况激烈，快递健儿们突破分球、精准投射的英姿引发阵阵喝彩；拔河竞技区号子震天，参赛 队伍寸土必争的韧劲将赛事推向高潮。经过两天16场鏖战，申通代表队斩获篮球项目冠军，顺丰代表队 赢得拔河项目金牌。 随着颁奖礼炮的绽放，这场属于快递人的体育盛会落幕，但"暖蜂行动"的温暖仍在延续。从赛场 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The logistics sector is showing resilience with a steady increase in express delivery volumes and revenues, indicating a robust demand environment [5][6][22] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends favoring growth [15] - The shipping sector faces challenges due to ongoing tariff conflicts, but oil tanker demand is projected to rise due to geopolitical factors [15] Summary by Sections Logistics - National logistics operations were stable from April 14 to April 20, with rail freight at 75.61 million tons (down 1.66% week-on-week) and express delivery volumes reaching approximately 3.95 billion pieces (up 3.59%) [5] - Shentong Express reported a significant improvement in 2024, with revenues of 47.169 billion yuan (up 15.26%) and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan (up 250.24%) [6] - The overall express delivery market is characterized by strong demand and limited price decline, with major players like Zhongtong Express and Shunfeng benefiting from cyclical recovery [15] Aviation - Huaxia Airlines reported a net profit of 82 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 232% increase year-on-year, driven by increased flight operations and passenger volumes [9] - The airline industry is expected to see a rebound in ticket sales, with a long-term positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand [15] Shipping - The shipping sector is experiencing significant operational adjustments due to ongoing US-China tariff conflicts, with a 44% year-on-year decrease in vessel numbers to US ports [11] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 3.4% to 1305 points, indicating a potential recovery in the dry bulk shipping market [12] - Oil tanker demand is expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and limited new ship orders, suggesting a favorable outlook for the oil shipping segment [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Views - The company continues to enhance its competitiveness, achieving simultaneous growth in volume and profit [1]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 15.26% year-on-year increase in 2024 and an 18.43% increase in Q1 2025 [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased daily transactions with Alibaba Group, projecting a significant rise in related transactions for 2025 [11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 471.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.40 billion, up 205.24% [6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 119.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, and a net profit of 2.36 billion, up 24.04% [6]. - The company completed 227.3 billion express deliveries in 2024, a growth of 29.8%, and maintained a market share of 13.0% [7]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has effectively managed costs through various strategies, resulting in improved single-package profitability in 2024 and stable performance in Q1 2025 [8][10]. - The single-package express revenue decreased to 2.05 yuan in 2024, while the single-package cost was reduced to 1.94 yuan, leading to a gross profit of 0.11 yuan [9][10]. - In Q1 2025, the single-package express revenue was 2.04 yuan, with costs at 1.95 yuan, resulting in a gross profit of 0.12 yuan [10]. Future Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 537.86 billion, 605.17 billion, and 666.53 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.79 billion, 17.35 billion, and 19.94 billion [12][13]. - The projected growth rates for revenue are 14%, 13%, and 10% for the years 2025 to 2027, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 33%, 26%, and 15% [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 47.17 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.04 billion yuan, up 205.2% [4][10]. - The company has successfully completed a three-year capacity enhancement plan, significantly increasing its processing capabilities and maintaining a leading growth rate in package volume [5][7]. - Despite a decline in revenue per package due to market competition, the company achieved substantial revenue growth driven by high package volume [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, with a net profit of 236 million yuan, up 24.0% [4][10]. - The company’s package volume reached 22.73 billion pieces in 2024, a growth of 29.8%, with a market share of 12.98% [5][10]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.4 billion yuan, 1.68 billion yuan, and 1.9 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 34.4%, 20.5%, and 13.1% [7][10]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its cost per package by 9.7% to 1.94 yuan in 2024, with significant reductions in delivery, transfer, and transportation costs [6][10]. - The report highlights effective cost control measures, with a decrease in various expense ratios, indicating a positive trend in expense management [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 47.17 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.04 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 205.2% [4][10]. - The company has successfully completed a three-year capacity enhancement plan, significantly increasing its processing capabilities and maintaining a leading growth rate in package volume [5][7]. - Despite a decline in revenue per package due to market competition, the company achieved substantial revenue growth driven by high package volume [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 10.62 yuan - Total shares: 1.531 billion, circulating shares: 1.492 billion - Total market capitalization: 16.3 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 15.8 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 12.40/7.74 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 61.3% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 15.39 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.0 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 236 million yuan, an increase of 24.0% [4][10]. - The company’s package volume reached 22.73 billion in 2024, a growth of 29.8%, with a market share of 12.98% [5]. - The company’s cost per package decreased by 9.7% to 1.94 yuan in 2024, with continued cost reduction trends into Q1 2025 [6]. Future Outlook - The company aims to focus on its core express delivery business, enhance infrastructure, and implement refined management practices to drive cost reduction and efficiency [7]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.4 billion, 1.68 billion, and 1.9 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 34.4%, 20.5%, and 13.1% respectively [7][10].