智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，本轮快递反内卷，一方面强调了快递企业作为反内卷的主 体，一方面强调了国家和地方邮管局的监管职责和执法能力，双管齐下。此次快递反内卷自上而下，且 广东省已率先落地，该行认为具有扩散效应，且在淡旺季衔接和社保新规背景下，快递反内卷具备持续 性，各主要快递上市公司业绩弹性大。 广东作为快递业务量占比较高的地区，2017年以来其快递业务量占全国业务量的份额保持在 24.33%-27.25%，其反内卷率先落地，有望对全国其他快递"产粮区"形成示范效应，从其他地方邮政局 的动作看，预计其他地区如浙江、福建等地区会一定程度的跟随涨价。 淡季涨价叠加社保新规，预计反内卷效果将在一定时期内持续 不同于以往年份的旺季涨价，今年快递行业在反内卷的推动下，淡季进行提价，而之后可以衔接旺季， 从需求端来看，此次反内卷效果具有一定持续性。最高人民法院强调依法参加社保是法定义务，新规自 9月1日起施行。该行以每人日均派件500票、按各地标准缴纳社保测算快递小哥全员缴纳社保后，对单 票的平均影响在6分钱。因此，从成本端看，若后续快递小哥全员缴纳社保后，快递加盟商的成本增 加，经营压力进一步提升，而反内 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Equity Research Report on China Express Delivery Industry Overview - The A-share Express Delivery Index has increased by 18% since July, outperforming the CSI300 index which rose by 4% [3] - The profitability improvement across the express delivery industry has not been fully reflected in stock prices, particularly for major players like YTO, which saw an 80%+ improvement in PE ratios due to express price hikes in Q4 2021 [3] Core Insights - **Price Recovery and Policy Support**: The ongoing anti-involution policy and expected price floor increases in regions like Guangdong (RMB0.4-0.5 increase to RMB1.4 per parcel) are anticipated to enhance profitability and earnings visibility for delivery players in 2026 [3][5] - **ASP Trends**: Major players experienced a year-on-year increase in Average Selling Price (ASP) of 13-21% in 2022, but ASP is expected to remain flat in 2026 due to a higher mix of low-priced parcels and price sensitivity among consumers [4] - **Volume Growth**: Industrial parcel volume growth is projected to slow to approximately 10-15% year-on-year in 4Q25-2026, following a low growth of 2% in 2022 due to pandemic impacts [4] Company Ratings and Target Prices - **Upgrades**: YTO and Yunda have been upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" due to recent policy-driven price hikes, while STO Express remains a preferred choice with a maintained "Buy" rating [6][11] - **Target Prices**: - SF Holding-A: Target price raised from RMB47.10 to RMB56.00 [7] - YTO Express: Target price raised from RMB13.70 to RMB20.40 [28] - Yunda: Target price raised from RMB7.60 to RMB10.40 [40] Financial Estimates - **Revenue and Profit Changes**: - YTO Express's revenue estimates lowered by 2% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 5% in 2027 due to fierce price competition [24] - Yunda's net profit estimates raised by 7% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 10% in 2027 due to improved ASP and cost management [36] - **Cost Management**: Expected unit costs to drop by 3-5% year-on-year in 2025 due to better scale effects [4] Risks and Challenges - **Price Competition**: Intensifying price competition poses a risk to ASP and could negatively impact revenue and earnings [22] - **Capacity Expansion**: Slower-than-expected capacity expansion could limit competitiveness and share price growth [22] - **Goodwill Impairment**: Risks associated with goodwill impairment could affect earnings negatively [22] Conclusion - The express delivery sector in China is poised for a recovery supported by policy changes and price adjustments, with major players like YTO and Yunda expected to benefit significantly. However, risks related to competition and operational efficiency remain critical factors to monitor.

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive for the market, with expectations of new policies but limited strong stimulus in the short term, focusing on three major changes: export, consumption, and real estate data [6][7][8] - July economic data shows a general slowdown, with consumption continuing to decline and investment in real estate and manufacturing accelerating its drop [7][8] - The banking sector is experiencing a decline in profits, but the credit structure is continuously optimizing, with a narrowing decline in profit growth observed in Q2 [23][24] Group 2: Industry Performance - The construction industry is seeing a significant revaluation of mineral resources, with a focus on high-dividend leading companies due to improved supply and overseas demand [19][20] - The courier industry is experiencing a "reverse involution," with price increases expected to spread across regions, enhancing profitability for major listed companies [21][23] - The sweetener industry is projected to grow, driven by the demand for sugar reduction, with artificial sweeteners maintaining a strong market presence [30][31] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Jianghe Group, a leader in high-end curtain wall supply, is expected to see steady profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a minimum dividend payout ratio of 80% [20] - Rongxin Culture, a leader in children's books, is positioned for growth through digital transformation and IP monetization, with significant profit increases projected from 2025 to 2027 [32] - Youyou Foods, a leader in spicy chicken feet snacks, is expanding its market presence and product offerings, with strong growth potential in emerging channels [35]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the express delivery industry, indicating a potential for profit elasticity among major listed companies such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [5][24]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, driven by regulatory measures from the State Post Bureau and the active participation of express companies. This initiative aims to combat low-price competition and enhance service quality [1][16]. - The initial results of this de-involution are evident in Guangdong, where the minimum express delivery price has been raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with an average price exceeding 1.4 yuan. This price adjustment is expected to have a ripple effect across other regions [2][18]. - The de-involution effect is anticipated to be sustained due to seasonal price increases and new social security regulations, which will likely lead to increased operational costs for delivery personnel [3][20]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The de-involution framework emphasizes a dual approach where express companies take the lead, supported by regulatory oversight from postal authorities. This was reinforced by a series of meetings and policy announcements aimed at curbing irrational price competition [1][16][19]. Initial Outcomes - Guangdong's price increase serves as a model for other regions, with expectations that provinces like Zhejiang and Fujian will follow suit. The region has maintained a significant share of national express delivery volume, ranging from 24.33% to 27.25% since 2017 [2][19]. Profitability Analysis - The express delivery companies are characterized by low per-ticket profits but high business volumes, leading to significant profit elasticity. For instance, Zhongtong, YTO, Shentong, and Yunda are projected to handle 340.10 billion, 265.73 billion, 227.29 billion, and 237.83 billion packages respectively by the end of 2024, with per-ticket profits of 0.30, 0.15, 0.05, and 0.08 yuan [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high profit elasticity, particularly Shentong Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, Yunda Express, and Jitu Express, which have unique advantages in overseas operations [5][25].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to sustainable profitability, as evidenced by recent price increases in response to rising logistics costs and changing market dynamics [4][16]. Price Increase and Its Implications - Starting August 4, express delivery prices in Guangdong Province were raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with the average ticket price exceeding 1.4 yuan [5]. - This price increase may significantly impact low-margin businesses that rely on low-cost shipping, potentially erasing their profits [5][6]. - The cost increase will be distributed across the e-commerce ecosystem, affecting sellers and ultimately consumers, who may experience indirect cost increases through higher product prices or reduced service quality [7][9]. Industry Dynamics and Profit Redistribution - The price hike is expected to trigger a reallocation of profits within the industry, particularly affecting franchise operators who have been under financial strain due to previous price wars [9][12]. - The express delivery sector has been characterized by intense competition and price wars, leading to a significant decline in average ticket prices over the past five years, with a 32% drop [13]. Shift in Market Focus - The express delivery industry is moving towards a model that prioritizes profitability over market share, as capital markets are no longer willing to support unprofitable growth strategies [16][18]. - Companies are expected to enhance service quality, operational efficiency, and technological innovation to create competitive advantages, rather than relying solely on low prices [16][17]. Consumer Behavior and Market Changes - Consumers accustomed to "free shipping" may need to adjust to a new reality where shipping costs are more transparent, leading to clearer choices between low-cost, standardized delivery and premium, personalized services [18][21]. - The rise in logistics costs may also accelerate the growth of instant retail, which offers faster delivery options and could capture market share from traditional e-commerce [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the express delivery and shipping industries, highlighting potential recovery and investment opportunities [1][3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is entering a verification phase for price increases, with key observations on price implementation, regional interactions, merchant actions, demand impacts, and potential social security implications. The report presents three scenarios for the industry: 1) elimination of price disparities leading to profit recovery and significant dividends; 2) continuation of competitive dynamics in many regions, exacerbating industry differentiation; 3) potential for higher-level mergers and acquisitions to optimize supply [3]. - The report emphasizes the opportunity in China Shipbuilding, noting a combined order value of 378.7 billion with a market value-to-order ratio of 0.76, indicating a historically low position. It recommends focusing on the dry bulk shipping sector and highlights the potential for profit transmission from the black chain industry to shipping [3]. - In the oil transportation segment, VLCC rates remained stable at $34,764 per day, with expectations for continued price increases due to tight capacity and active demand. The report also discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and the resulting increase in compliant oil demand [3]. - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the Civil Aviation Administration's "anti-involution" policies, which may optimize competitive structures and enhance airline profitability. The report recommends several airlines based on supply constraints and demand elasticity [3]. - The railway and highway sectors show resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes. The report suggests two main investment themes for the highway sector: traditional high-dividend investments and potential value management catalysts for undervalued stocks [3]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price verification phase, with potential for profit recovery and significant dividends [3]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, with a focus on Jitu Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [3]. Shipping - China Shipbuilding presents an investment opportunity with a low market value-to-order ratio [3]. - Recommended companies in the dry bulk shipping sector include China Merchants Energy Shipping and Pacific Shipping [3]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates are stable, with expectations for increases due to tight capacity and demand [3]. - The report notes the impact of U.S. sanctions on oil exports from Iran and Russia, affecting overall oil demand [3]. Aviation - The aviation sector is poised for profitability improvements due to regulatory changes and supply constraints [3]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [3]. Railway and Highway - The railway and highway sectors are showing steady growth in freight volumes, indicating resilience [3]. - Investment themes include high-dividend stocks and undervalued stocks in the highway sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a rapid response to the "anti-involution" trend, leading to significant price increases and stock performance improvements since early July 2023 [1][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The express delivery index surged by 17.10% since July, with notable stock price increases: Shentong Express up over 50%, YTO Express up over 30%, and Yunda and Jiacheng International both up over 20% [1]. - Specific stock performance data shows that companies like Jiantong Express and Hengkeda Xin saw price increases of 53.32% and 31.23%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Starting August 5, 2023, express delivery prices in Guangdong increased by 0.4 yuan per ticket, raising the average price to over 1.4 yuan [3]. - Major express companies have raised their base prices, with Zhongtong and YTO reaching 1.46 yuan and 1.43 yuan, respectively [3]. - The average express ticket price nationwide dropped from 8.14 yuan to 7.52 yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [5]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Despite the increase in delivery volume, the express delivery industry faces a severe profit squeeze, with net profits per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong and YTO continuing to decline [9][10]. - The industry is experiencing a "growth without profit" phenomenon, leading to a vicious cycle of price competition and operational challenges [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If the average ticket price increases by 0.1 yuan, major companies could see significant revenue boosts: Zhongtong by 3.4 billion yuan, YTO by 2.66 billion yuan, and others similarly benefiting [12][13]. - The express delivery market is expected to maintain growth, with projections of 1.758 billion packages in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [39]. - The industry may see consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, as evidenced by Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics, which aims to enhance competitiveness [21][43].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant rebound due to government policies aimed at curbing excessive competition, leading to a notable increase in stock prices within the sector [3][25]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since early July, the express delivery index has surged by 17.10%, with companies like Shentong Express seeing over 50% increase in stock prices [3][4]. - Major express companies, including YTO Express and Yunda, have also reported substantial stock price increases of over 20% [3][4]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Starting August 5, express delivery prices in Guangdong were raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with average prices exceeding 1.4 yuan [5]. - Other regions, such as Yiwu in Zhejiang, have also initiated price hikes, indicating a potential trend of rising prices across the industry [7][8]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Despite the increase in delivery volume, the average price per ticket has been declining, with a drop from 8.14 yuan to 7.52 yuan year-on-year, a decrease of 7.7% [15][18]. - The net profit per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong and Yunda has also been decreasing, indicating a challenging profit environment [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If the average ticket price increases by 0.1 yuan, major companies could see significant revenue boosts, with Zhongtong potentially gaining 3.4 billion yuan [24][26]. - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a record high of 1,750.8 billion packages in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [54][55]. Group 5: Structural Changes - The industry is shifting towards managing light and reverse packages due to the rise of e-commerce, which is fragmenting consumption patterns [33][34]. - Recent acquisitions, such as Shentong's purchase of Daniao Logistics, are seen as strategic moves to enhance competitiveness and address market challenges [36][58]. Group 6: Long-term Considerations - The express delivery sector has not yet achieved true capacity clearing despite years of competition, leading to ongoing price wars [51][52]. - Future stability in the market may depend on mergers and acquisitions, as well as the ability of leading companies to maintain pricing power and profitability [56][59].

Core Points - Sichuan Shenxuechuan Enterprise Management Service Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 5 million RMB, fully owned by Shentong Express Co., Ltd. [1] - The legal representative of the new company is Yu Yongshuai [1] Company Overview - Company Name: Sichuan Shenxuechuan Enterprise Management Service Co., Ltd. [1] - Legal Representative: Yu Yongshuai [1] - Registered Capital: 5 million RMB [1] - Shareholder: Shentong Express Co., Ltd. holds 100% [1] - Business Scope: Includes enterprise management, consulting services, financial consulting, information technology consulting, advertising design and agency, market planning, and non-residential real estate leasing [1] - Business Type: Limited liability company (wholly owned by a legal entity) [1] - Business Duration: Until August 14, 2025, with no fixed term thereafter [1] - Registration Authority: Neijiang City Dongxing District Market Supervision Administration [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the express delivery industry, suggesting a potential recovery in pricing and profitability, with specific recommendations for companies like Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Jitu Express [3][66]. Core Insights - The current market dynamics are characterized by a recovery in express delivery prices, driven by both top-down and bottom-up pressures for price increases, indicating a shift away from intense price competition [3][66]. - The report outlines three scenarios for the future of the industry: 1) elimination of price disparities leading to sustained profit recovery and significant dividends; 2) continuation of competitive dynamics with increased industry fragmentation; 3) potential for higher-level mergers and acquisitions to optimize supply-side dynamics [39][66]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The express delivery sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with significant price increases observed in regions like Guangdong and Yiwu, reflecting a commitment to eliminate price disparities [3][66]. - The report highlights that the express delivery price is a crucial driver of stock performance, with public fund holdings previously at low levels [6][66]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Shentong Express for its high volume growth and profit improvement potential, YTO Express for its clear strategy and digital transformation, and Jitu Express for benefiting from high growth in Southeast Asian e-commerce [66]. - Zhongtong Express is noted for its market share recovery and profit rebound potential, while Yunda Express is recognized for its stable operations and improving network health [66]. Pricing Strategies - The report discusses the complexity of pricing policies in the express delivery sector, emphasizing the need for effective management of pricing strategies to maintain network stability and profitability [17][24]. - It also mentions that the stability of delivery fees is critical for the development of the industry, as it directly impacts the income of delivery personnel and overall service quality [30][32]. Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to evolve towards a model resembling public utilities, with stable profits and cash flows leading to increased dividend payouts [43][66]. - The report suggests that the industry may see a shift from a consumer-driven PE valuation to a dividend yield-based valuation as profitability stabilizes [43][66].