证券研究报告 | 2025年10月14日 交通运输行业 10 月投资策略 优于大市 快递"反内卷"有望带来业绩修复，中美互征港口费有望带动航运运价上行 航运：近期，由于美国 301 港口征费措施将于 10 月 14 日实施，交通运输部 宣布中国自 10 月 14 日起对美国船舶实施特别港务费反制措施，中美互相加 征港口费的影响在于，1）预计超过四成的航运运力都会受到美国征收港口 费的影响，而受中国征收港口费影响的运力占比会明显更低，其中中国船企 是这次措施中受影响最大的；2）不同船型受影响程度不同，集运板块影响 或最小，油运和干散货板块影响更大；3）中美互征港口非对运价整体影响 有限，但短期政策实施初期的混乱，可能导致运价有所波动，集运方面，主 要因为包括中远海运在内的多家集运船东已承诺不上调运价，以维持市场竞 争力，集运船东将通过船期调配消化或者自己承担增加的成本，油运和干散 货方面，市场会有自我调节效果，无法承受成本的船舶可能退出美国航线， 再由其他船舶填补运力。油运方面，10 月初，由于远东假期期间成交有限， 原油运价表现平平，而随着 10 月 9 日美国 OFAC 新一轮制裁落地，以及 10 月 10 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Global Market Impact**: The global multi-asset market has experienced significant declines due to rising risk aversion stemming from U.S. export controls on Boeing aircraft parts and increased tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to the largest single-day and weekly drops in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices since April [1][2][4]. - **Oil Price Decline**: Oil prices have plummeted, with Brent crude and WTI reaching their lowest levels since May, at $62 and $58 respectively, primarily due to improved expectations of oil supply stability following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [1][5][4]. Company-Specific Insights - **Boeing and Chinese Airlines**: The U.S.-China trade war may position Boeing aircraft and parts as key negotiation points, potentially leading to delays in deliveries to Chinese airlines, which currently hold at least 222 Boeing aircraft orders [1][6][7]. - **Airline Sector Performance**: The increase in passenger load factors during the National Day holiday and the drop in oil prices are favorable for airline stocks, with recommendations for Huaxia Airlines and major Hong Kong banks [1][6][7]. - **Shipping Industry**: The initial impacts of the U.S.-China trade war on goods trade may paradoxically benefit shipping rates due to potential stockpiling after a short-term decline in imports, with COSCO Shipping recommended as a core investment [1][8]. Sector Analysis - **Express Delivery Industry**: A price increase in express delivery services in Henan signals the start of a second wave of price hikes, with expectations for similar increases in other regions ahead of the Double Eleven shopping festival. Companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express are recommended [3][10]. - **Chemical Industry**: Chemical product prices have slightly decreased due to the trade war, with a focus on resource-based fertilizers and agricultural chemicals for growth opportunities. Berkshire Hathaway's acquisition of a chemical division indicates investment potential in leading chemical firms [3][11]. - **Coal Industry**: Coal demand has exceeded expectations, with long-term contracts priced higher than spot prices, indicating strong winter replenishment demand. Companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are highlighted for their high dividend yields [3][19]. Additional Insights - **Trade War Effects on Logistics**: The trade war's impact on logistics and shipping may create volatility, but it also presents opportunities for investment in companies less affected by U.S.-China tensions, such as JIAYOU International and Jitu Express [1][9]. - **Chemical Sector Recovery**: The chemical sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with price increases anticipated in October. Key players like Sanyou Chemical and Zhongtai Chemical are recommended for investment [11][13][17]. - **Agricultural Chemicals**: The market for agricultural chemicals is showing signs of recovery, with price increases expected for glyphosate and potassium fertilizers, suggesting investment in leading firms like Xingfa Group and Jiangshan Chemical [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and investment opportunities across various sectors.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The shipping and shipbuilding industry is poised for historical opportunities due to China's countermeasures against the U.S. shipping fees, which may lead to non-linear price increases in the short term and a reduction in available vessels in the medium term [19][20] - The report highlights the potential for a surge in shipbuilding orders if U.S. investments in Chinese shipbuilding are exempted from tariffs, and the implications of U.S.-China negotiations on the industry [19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.09%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.60 percentage points, with the road freight sector showing the highest increase of 3.04% [4][5] - Shipping data indicates that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China remained stable, while the Shanghai export container freight index rose by 4.12% [4][5] 2. Sub-industry Weekly Insights - The shipping and shipbuilding sector is expected to benefit from China's recent regulatory changes, which impose special port fees on U.S. vessels, potentially leading to increased operational costs for U.S. shipping companies [20][21] - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Shipping and China State Shipbuilding, as they may benefit from these developments [19] 3. High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including China Shipping (603167.SH) with a projected dividend yield of 10.92% and Daqin Railway (601006.SH) with a yield of 3.75% [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend yields as a factor for investment decisions in the transportation sector [17] 4. ETF Size Changes - The report provides data on the changes in the size of various ETFs related to the transportation sector, indicating a general trend of growth in assets under management [13][14] 5. Potential Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the shipping sector, particularly oil tankers and dry bulk carriers, may present significant investment opportunities due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes [19][20] - Companies such as China Shipping and China State Shipbuilding are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of these market dynamics [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in profits for the express delivery sector driven by anti-competition policies, with an expected increase in prices leading to improved profitability for companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [5][6]. - The shipping sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly for oil tankers, with historical high freight rates observed in August and September 2025. The report anticipates continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and a release of pent-up inventory demand [5]. - The shipbuilding industry is in a phase of profit release as high-priced orders are being delivered, with a strong demand for replacing old vessels. The report notes that the implementation of the 301 policy is expected to stimulate order volumes and ship prices [5]. - The airline sector is projected to see significant improvements in operational performance due to increased capacity and a recovery in international travel, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines expected to benefit [5][6]. - The report also indicates that the highway and railway sectors are likely to maintain growth in traffic volumes, with improvements in railway freight performance anticipated due to the retraction of previous freight rate reductions [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Oil tanker freight rates reached historical highs in August and September 2025, with a projected 14% decline in VLCC market rates for Q3, while Cape-sized bulk carriers are expected to see a 19% increase in rates [5]. - The report recommends companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Merchants Heavy Industry, highlighting the strong demand and supply constraints in the sector [5]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with ongoing demand for replacing old vessels. The report suggests that the implementation of the 301 policy will positively impact order volumes and ship prices [5]. - Recommended companies include China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [5]. Airlines - The airline sector is entering a peak travel season with increased capacity and improved passenger flow. The report anticipates significant operational improvements for major airlines due to favorable external factors such as lower oil prices [5][6]. - Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key beneficiaries of this trend [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profits due to rising prices and reduced competition. The report notes a 12.3% year-on-year growth in express delivery volume in August 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases [5]. Highway and Railway - The report forecasts growth in highway traffic and railway passenger and freight volumes, with a notable increase in railway freight performance expected in Q3 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Zhejiang Huhangyong and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, which are expected to perform well in the current environment [5].

Investment Themes - Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement, China State Construction, and Ningde Times in the cyclical sector[2] - In the consumer sector, recommended stocks include Hengrui Medicine and Shanxi Fenjiu[2] - In the power equipment and new energy vehicle sector, recommended stocks include Ningde Times and Goldwind Technology[2] - In the TMT sector, recommended stocks include Longi Green Energy and Luxshare Precision[2] Market Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.25%, and the ChiNext Index by 50.40%[4] - The average gain of the recommended stock portfolio was 33.11%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index's gain of 17.90%[4] - Key outperformers included Huaxin Cement and Ningde Times, with quarterly gains exceeding 50%[4] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with a focus on "appropriate easing" in monetary policy to support growth[4] - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery but remained in contraction territory as of September[4] - The report anticipates continued inflow of foreign capital due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets[4] Company Highlights - Huaxin Cement's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.30, with a PE ratio of 14.27[6] - China State Construction's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.16, with a PE ratio of 4.68[12] - China Rare Earth's projected EPS for 2025 is 0.34, with a PE ratio of 150.92[25] - Hengrui Medicine's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.26, with a PE ratio of 56.90[33]

机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，申通快递十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股4321.18万股，相比上期减少1972.21万股。天弘永利债券A（420002）位居第十大流通股 东，持股1026.46万股，相比上期减少215.48万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，申通快递股份有限公司位于上海市青浦区重固镇北青公路6598弄25号，成立日期2001年11月 1日，上市日期2010年9月8日，公司主营业务涉及国内快递、普通货运、货物运输代理、仓储服务、装 卸服务在内的快递物流综合服务。主营业务收入构成为：快递服务收入98.67%，其他业务1.33%。 截至6月30日，申通快递股东户数4.25万，较上期增加11.27%；人均流通股35095股，较上期减少 10.13%。2025年1月-6月，申通快递实现营业收入250.25亿元，同比增长16.02%；归母净利润4.53亿元， 同比增长3.73%。 分红方面，申通快递A股上市后累计派现16.14亿元。近三年，累计派现1.31亿元。 9月30日，申通快递跌0.06%，成交额3.78亿元。两融数据显示，当日申通快递获融资买入额5188. ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent wave of express delivery price increases is primarily aimed at e-commerce shipments, with various regions in China implementing price hikes to improve market competition and service quality [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increases Overview - Starting from October 1, express delivery fees in Sichuan will be raised, following similar increases in multiple provinces and cities across the country [1]. - Zhejiang province was the first to raise express delivery fees in mid-July, with the base price increasing from 1.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan per order [1]. - In August, express delivery companies in Guangdong collectively raised their base prices to an average of over 1.4 yuan per order, with other regions like Fujian and Jiangsu also announcing price hikes [1]. Group 2: Impact on Different Customer Segments - The current price adjustments mainly affect large e-commerce clients, particularly those sending over 500 packages a day, with increases ranging from 0.2 yuan to 0.4 yuan [2]. - Personal and small clients are less affected, as their pricing is not significantly low [2]. - Some clients have started to shift to other locations for shipping due to the price increases, raising questions about customer retention [2]. Group 3: Industry Insights and Expectations - Industry experts indicate that the price hikes are policy-driven, aimed at curbing unhealthy competition and enhancing service quality [2]. - There is optimism among delivery points regarding the price increases, as they believe it will lead to profitability despite potentially handling fewer packages [2]. - Data from several express companies show an increase in average revenue per package in August compared to July, with Shentong reporting 2.06 yuan per package (up 4.6%), Yunda at 1.92 yuan (up from 1.91 yuan), and Yuantong at 2.15 yuan (up 3.4%) [2].

到了8月，广东地区的快递公司集体对底价进行上调，平均单价提升至1.4元以上。后续福建、江苏等部分地区也宣布上调 价格，例如江苏省连云港市东海县8月单票均价上调约0.4元。 8月底至9月中旬，多地通知网点上调价格。湖南省、安徽省、江西省、湖北省、辽宁省陆续宣布提价，幅度为每单0.1元至 0.4元不等，部分地区设定了最低价格。 9月，韵达、圆通、中通等五家快递企业宣布在9月22日上调上海地区的收件价格，据了解涨幅在0.2元到0.4元之间。 本轮上调快递费主要针对电商件低价订单，对个人散件影响较小。 快递费涨价潮仍在继续。四川一网点负责人对第一财经记者表示，10月1日起四川地区快递费将上调。 目前全国多个省市已上调快递价格，主要针对电商件的揽收价进行上调。有业内人士对第一财经记者表示，从时间轴看， 浙江省是最早上调快递费的地区。7月中旬，义乌地区率先涨价，底价从每单1.1元涨至每单1.2元，杭州地区每票涨幅在0.3 至0.5元之间。 快递物流专家赵小敏对第一财经记者表示，考虑到本次价格上调的出发点是为了营造公平有序市场竞争环境，预计全国各 地都会陆续上调价格。同时，赵小敏认为快递的包邮机制可能也会出现变化。 上调价 ...

Core Insights - The logistics sector experienced a slight decline of 0.09% on September 30, with Furan De leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Stock Performance - Jiangsu Investment (600119) saw a significant increase of 4.92%, closing at 8.75 with a trading volume of 204,300 shares and a turnover of 180 million [1] - Other notable gainers included Wuchan Zhongda (600704) up 2.74% and Milkway (603713) up 1.59% [1] - Furan De (605050) led the declines with a drop of 3.95%, closing at 17.00 with a trading volume of 158,000 shares and a turnover of 273 million [2] Capital Flow - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 111 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 126 million [2] - Major stocks like Wuchan Zhongda and SF Holding had mixed capital flows, with Wuchan Zhongda seeing a net inflow of 43.38 million from institutional investors [3] - SF Holding (002352) had a net inflow of 40.77 million from institutional investors but faced outflows from retail investors [3]

" 我觉得快递涨价肯定会影响商品的价格，毕竟羊毛出在羊身上，最后还得是消费者买单。 " " 快递涨价，和什么因素有关？会不会从商家传递给消费者，引起网购价格上升？ " " 快递费涨了，那服务能不能好一点？ " 有关 " 快递集体涨价 " 的话题，这两天引发了网友热议。 考虑到国庆节过后就要迎来下半年的 " 双 11 " 购物节，跟快递涨价也直接相关。 所以不少网友还是有很多担心和顾虑。 快递集体涨价这个话题，其实是近几个月多方面因素积攒引申出来的。 近期，快递行业在浙江、上海、湖南等多地掀起了一波涨价潮。 具体包括中通、圆通、申通等快递公司上调收件价格，每单涨幅在 0.2-0.4 元左右。 这几毛钱的涨幅，可能对消费者个人来说感知并不明显。 但快递这个行业本身单量是以亿件计，利润本身就比较薄； 所以对于快递公司和电商平台而言，每天收件或者寄件上万都很普遍，所以涨这 2 毛、4 毛的，可真不 少了。 所以快递集体涨价，大面上看，是为了缓解这种内卷压力，合力助推行业良性竞争。 那涨完价后，咱先不说谁在承担涨价的压力； 咱先聊聊快递公司收入上去了，真的会改善快递员的收入嘛？ 来一组数据直观感受下就更清晰了： 今年年 ...