期待路权进一步开放，无人车赋能快递末端进一步降本，相关测算详申通快递投资价值分析报告《网络改善，久 久为功》。 【中信证券交运物流】周观点：无人车加速布局末端，重视航司盈利拐点 无人车采购翻倍以上增长，末端降本有望加速。 2024年顺丰控股、中通快递、圆通速递、申通快递无人车规模分别为800台、1000+台、500+台、200~300台，料 2025年快递龙头无人车规模翻倍以上增长。 27日九识智能发布E系列无人物流车售价降至1.98万元；同时推出FSD月度订阅服务低至1800元/月，快递公司在无 人车采购采 【中信证券交运物流】周观点：无人车加速布局末端，重视航司盈利拐点 无人车采购翻倍以上增长，末端降本有望加速。 2024年顺丰控股、中通快递、圆通速递、申通快递无人车规模分别为800台、1000+台、500+台、200~300台，料 2025年快递龙头无人车规模翻倍以上增长。 27日九识智能发布E系列无人物流车售价降至1.98万元；同时推出FSD月度订阅服务低至1800元/月，快递公司在无 人车采购采用差异化方式，顺丰采用租赁方式实现更快布局，通达系通过多种方式支持加盟商采购无人车降本。 继续推荐：利润端 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector, with specific buy recommendations for several airlines and logistics companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in the aviation sector, driven by increasing passenger demand and favorable pricing dynamics, particularly during the peak travel season [4][5]. - The logistics and express delivery sectors are expected to undergo significant transformation due to advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, which could enhance operational efficiency and service delivery [5][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report highlights the strong performance of airlines such as Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from rising passenger volumes and improved load factors [2][11]. - The logistics sector is seeing a surge in express delivery volumes, with a reported 41.47 billion packages collected in the week of May 19-25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.42% [5][6]. Operational Tracking - The report provides detailed operational metrics for major airlines, indicating a positive trend in available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) across the sector, with notable increases in passenger load factors [4][14]. - The logistics sector's performance is also tracked, showing a significant increase in both collection and delivery volumes, which are expected to continue growing due to favorable consumption policies [5][6]. Airline Data Tracking - Specific airlines are highlighted for their operational efficiency and market positioning, with metrics showing improvements in ASK and RPK, alongside rising load factors, indicating a robust recovery trajectory [4][14]. - The report notes that the average load factor for major airlines is above 80%, suggesting strong demand and effective capacity management [4][14]. Shipping Data Tracking - The report indicates a rise in shipping rates, with the SCFI index reaching 2072.71 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 30.68% [5][6]. - The report anticipates a seasonal increase in shipping demand, driven by factors such as replenishment needs and peak shipping seasons, which could lead to further price increases [5][6]. Logistics Data Tracking - The report tracks logistics performance, noting a significant increase in freight volumes across various transport modes, including road and rail, with a cumulative freight volume of 2.71 billion tons reported [5][6]. - The express delivery sector is highlighted for its resilience, with ongoing growth in package volumes supported by government consumption-boosting policies [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is transitioning from "scale competition" to "quality competition," with Shentong Express achieving significant growth and reversing its previous decline, as evidenced by its record revenue in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Shentong Express reported a revenue of 11.999 billion yuan, marking a historical high [1]. - The company achieved a net profit growth of over 200% year-on-year in 2024, with business volume growth leading the "Tongda system" for two consecutive years [1][2]. - Shentong's business volume reached 5.807 billion pieces in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%, surpassing the industry growth rate of 21.6% [2]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The company completed its "three-year 10 billion capacity enhancement plan" in 2024, increasing its daily processing capacity from 42 million pieces in 2021 to over 75 million pieces in 2024 [2]. - The average cost per delivery decreased to 1.94 yuan in 2024, a reduction of 10% year-on-year, due to infrastructure improvements and automation investments [3]. - Shentong Express plans to enhance its operational efficiency by optimizing routing, increasing direct delivery routes, and implementing AI technology in delivery processes [3][9]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on improving single-ticket revenue and customer structure while expanding its market presence in low-occupancy areas [4]. - Shentong Express emphasizes a balanced growth strategy, rejecting blind pursuit of volume in favor of quality and profitability [5]. - The company is positioning itself as an "economical express" service, targeting high-quality customer segments and offering customized solutions for various industries [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Shentong Express aims to continue its digital transformation and enhance its operational efficiency through AI and automation [9][10]. - The company is prepared for potential challenges in the competitive landscape, focusing on cost control and service quality improvements [8]. - Future capital expenditures will prioritize automation and maintenance, with flexibility to increase spending if significant volume growth occurs [9][10].

Core Insights - The express delivery industry shows resilience in business volume growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% in April 2025, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 6.1% and social consumer retail sales at 5.1% [6][12] - The industry continues to experience mild price competition, with the average revenue per package declining to 7.43 yuan, a decrease of 6.98% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month [6][16] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the express delivery industry, highlighting opportunities for investment in leading companies [6][45] Industry Volume and Price - In April 2025, the express delivery business volume growth rates for first, second, and third-tier regions were +18.4%, +21.1%, and +28.4%, respectively, indicating higher growth in non-grain-producing areas compared to grain-producing areas [28] - The average revenue per package in first, second, and third-tier regions saw year-on-year declines of -6.5%, -8.6%, and -11.3%, respectively, with price competition shifting towards non-grain-producing areas [28] Company-Specific Volume and Price - In April 2025, the business volume growth rates for YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and SF Express were +25.27%, +13.41%, +20.98%, and +29.99%, respectively, with YTO, Shentong, and SF Express outperforming the industry average [39] - The average revenue per package for YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and SF Express was 2.14, 1.91, 1.97, and 13.49 yuan, respectively, with SF Express experiencing the largest price decline [44]

证券代码：002468 证券简称：申通快递 公告编号：2025-049 申通快递股份有限公司 2024 年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号——回购 股份》等相关规定，申通快递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）通过回购专用证券账户（以下 简称"回购专户"）持有的公司股份不享有参与本次利润分配的权利。 公司 2024 年度权益分派方案为：以公司现有总股本 1,530,802,166 股剔除公司回购专户股 份 28,397,773 股后的 1,502,404,393 股为基数，向全体股东每 10 股派发现金股利人民币 0.67 元 （含税），本次不进行公积金转增股本、不送红股。公司本次实际现金分红的总金额=实际参与分 配的总股本×分配比例，即 100,661,094.33 元=1,502,404,393 股×0.067 元/股。 3、在保证本次权益分派方案不变的前提下，2024 年度权益分派实施后的除权除息价格按照 上述原则及计算方式执行，即 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [6][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic express delivery industry and has entered a rapid growth phase since implementing a "three-year 10 billion capacity enhancement plan" in 2022. The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate into 2025, supported by a recent stock incentive plan that boosts internal confidence in development [7][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the express delivery sector, with 98.9% of its revenue coming from this service. As of May 27, 2025, the stock price was 10.34 RMB, with a target price set at 12.6 RMB [1]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.353 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.15%. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.88 RMB, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.69 [8][9]. Market Position and Growth - The company has seen its market share increase from 10.2% in 2021 to 13.0% in 2024. In the first four months of 2025, the company completed 7.9 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, outperforming the industry average by 4.2 percentage points [9]. Capacity Expansion - The company has invested over 30 billion RMB annually in enhancing its capacity through new transfer centers and automation equipment. By the end of 2024, the company's daily capacity is expected to exceed 75 million parcels, with a target of 90 million parcels for 2025 [9]. Stock Incentive Plan - A recent stock incentive plan aims to grant 28.136 million restricted shares, representing 1.84% of the total share capital. This plan is designed to retain key talent and reflects the company's confidence in its growth trajectory [9]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.4 billion RMB in 2025, 1.6 billion RMB in 2026, and 1.9 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.9 RMB, 1.1 RMB, and 1.2 RMB respectively. The projected P/E ratios for these years are 12, 10, and 8 times [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [6][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic express delivery industry and has entered a rapid growth phase since implementing a "three-year 10 billion capacity enhancement plan" in 2022. The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate into 2025, supported by a recent stock incentive plan that boosts internal confidence in development [7][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company's stock price as of May 27, 2025, is 10.34 RMB, with a target price set at 12.6 RMB. The market capitalization is approximately 154.28 billion RMB, and the company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.61 [1]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.353 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 30.15%. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.88 RMB, reflecting a 28.14% increase [8][9]. Market Position and Growth - The company has increased its daily capacity to over 75 million parcels by the end of 2024, with a target of 90 million parcels for 2025. The parcel volume has grown from 11.1 billion in 2021 to 22.7 billion in 2024, with market share rising from 10.2% to 13.0% during the same period. In the first four months of 2025, the company completed 7.9 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, outperforming the industry average by 4.2 percentage points [9]. Incentive Plans - The company has introduced a stock incentive plan, granting 28.136 million restricted shares to 239 employees, which is about 1.84% of the total share capital. The performance targets for revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 are set at no less than 12%, 25.4%, and 38%, respectively [9]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.4 billion RMB in 2025, 1.6 billion RMB in 2026, and 1.9 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 20%, and 15%. The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 12, 10, and 8 times, respectively [9].

（首次授予日） 一、 激励对象获授的限制性股票分配情况 | | | 获授的限制性股 | 占本激励计划授 | 占本激励计划公 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 姓名 | 职务 | 票数量（万股） | 予限制性股票总 | 告日公司股本总 | | | | | 数的比例 | 额的比例 | | 王文彬 | 董事、总经理 | 285.7146 | 10.1547% | 0.1866% | | 韩永彦 | 董事、副总经理 | 178.5714 | 6.3467% | 0.1167% | | 梁波 | 副总经理、财务负责人 | 87.5000 | 3.1099% | 0.0572% | | 路遥 | 董事 | 48.2144 | 1.7136% | 0.0315% | | 唐锦 | 副总经理 | 37.5000 | 1.3328% | 0.0245% | | 江鑫勇 | 副总经理 | 40.0000 | 1.4217% | 0.0261% | | 郭林 | 董事会秘书 | 7.1680 | 0.2548% | 0.0047% | | | 核心管理人员、核心技术（业务）人 员（232 人） ...

证券代码：002468 证券简称：申通快递 公告编号：2025-047 申通快递股份有限公司 关于调整2025年限制性股票激励计划相关事项的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 申通快递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 5 月 26 日召开第六届董事会第十次 会议，审议通过了《关于调整 2025 年限制性股票激励计划相关事项的议案》，现将有关事项公告 如下： 一、2025 年限制性股票激励计划已履行的相关审批程序 1、2025 年 5 月 8 日，公司召开第六届董事会第九次会议，审议通过了《关于公司<2025 年 限制性股票激励计划（草案）>及其摘要的议案》《关于公司<2025 年限制性股票激励计划实施考 核管理办法>的议案》《关于提请股东大会授权董事会办理公司 2025 年限制性股票激励计划有关 事项的议案》，同日，公司召开第六届监事会第八次会议审议通过相关议案，公司第六届董事会 薪酬与考核委员会对本次激励计划相关事项发表明确同意的核查意见。 2、2025 年 5 月 9 日，公司在内部 OA 系统对激励对象名单和职务进行了公 ...

证券代码：002468 证券简称：申通快递 公告编号：2025-048 申通快递股份有限公司 关于向激励对象首次授予限制性股票的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 根据 2024 年度股东大会授权，申通快递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 5 月 26 日召开第六届董事会第十次会议，审议通过了《关于向激励对象首次授予限制性股票的议案》， 同意首次授予 239 名激励对象 2,500.7632 万股限制性股票，首次授予限制性股票的授予日为 2025 年 5 月 26 日。现将有关事项公告如下： 2、标的股票来源：公司从二级市场回购的公司A股普通股。 3、激励对象：本激励计划首次授予的激励对象总人数不超过242人，为公司公告本激励计划 时在公司（含子公司，下同）任职的董事、高级管理人员、核心管理人员、核心技术（业务）人 员。 4、解除限售安排 本激励计划首次授予限制性股票的限售期分别为自授予限制性股票授予登记完成之日起12个 月、24个月；若预留限制性股票于《2025年三季度报告》披露前授予，则限售期分别为自授予限 制性股票授予登 ...