Economic News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut since 2025 [1] - Vietnam's National Assembly amended the mineral law to prohibit the export of rare earth ores starting January 1, 2026, emphasizing strict control over exploration and processing [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security held a seminar in collaboration with the International Labour Organization [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of pilot innovation in manufacturing as a key link connecting innovation, technology, and industry [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance policy support for the retail industry's innovation and transformation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will work with local governments to implement policies to stabilize foreign trade and promote market diversification [1] - The China Textile Import and Export Chamber reported that yarn and fabric exports reached $69.18 billion from January to October 2025, a 2.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue special government bonds due in 2025, with a total face value of CNY 400 billion for the first phase and CNY 350 billion for the second phase [1] - The National Internet Information Office is conducting a special campaign to rectify online chaos in the automotive industry [1] - The Ministry of Education reported an increase in the number of students returning from studying abroad, with 495,000 expected to return in 2024, a 19.1% increase from 2023 [1] Company News - Pop Mart announced changes in its board of directors, with new appointments effective December 10, 2025 [4] - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of CNY 23.957 per share, totaling CNY 30 billion, with the ex-dividend date on December 19 [4] - Nanjing Highway plans to invest up to CNY 9.033 billion in the construction of the Nanyang Yangtze River Bridge southern connection project [4] - ZTE Corporation is in communication with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding compliance investigations related to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act [4] - Oracle reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $16.1 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cloud revenue of $8 billion, a 34% increase, but below market expectations [4] Transportation Industry - The transportation sector has shown signs of recovery, with the strong cycle sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [5] - The focus for 2026 will remain on sectors benefiting from anti-involution and high certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies [6] - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability, with rising prices and a reduction in low-price competition [7] - The airline sector has improved performance due to lower oil prices and better management of ticket pricing, with a cautious approach to aircraft procurement expected to continue [8] - The highway sector has experienced significant stock price adjustments, with a focus on high dividend yield and low debt ratio companies expected to gain more attention [9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic demand is recovering ahead of external demand, with a focus on low base effects in 2026, making bottomed-out sectors worth attention [3] - It highlights that upstream sectors are recovering before downstream sectors, with significant demand elasticity expected in early 2026, particularly in bulk supply chains and dry bulk shipping [3] - The report notes that price increases are anticipated before volume growth, with a focus on dry bulk shipping, e-commerce logistics, and airlines benefiting from supply constraints and favorable oil exchange rates [3] Industry Overview - The transportation sector ranked 29th in the market as of December 10, 2025, reflecting significant pressure on fundamentals, with a -1% performance in the Shenwan primary transportation index [18][19] - The report identifies structural opportunities in logistics and shipping, despite the overall economic cycle affecting the sector [20] - It indicates that the transportation sector's performance is closely tied to economic fundamentals, with a notable correlation between ROE and economic cycles [23] Sub-industry Analysis - In logistics, domestic demand is stabilizing while external trade remains robust, with expectations of price increases due to anti-involution policies [11][20] - The airline sector is experiencing improvements in supply and demand, with a focus on capturing opportunities in private airlines and airport duty-free consumption recovery [11][20] - The shipping sector, particularly dry bulk shipping, is highlighted as a cost-effective opportunity for 2026, driven by supply and demand dynamics [11][20] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strategy of seeking alpha within beta, focusing on sectors with low beta characteristics that are expected to turn around in 2026 [11][20] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying individual stocks within the transportation sector that can outperform the broader market, given the anticipated recovery in demand [11][20] - The report outlines a cautious but optimistic outlook for 2026, with a focus on sectors that have shown resilience and potential for recovery [11][20]

Investment Summary - The transportation industry has shown a significant underperformance compared to the broader market, ranking among the lowest in terms of growth within the Shenwan primary industry indices as of December 8, 2025 [15][16] - The implementation of anti-involution policies has positively impacted the fundamentals of certain segments within the transportation sector, particularly benefiting the aviation and express delivery sectors [26][30] 2026 Outlook - The focus for 2026 remains on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and high-certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies on stock price movements [5][34] - Key sectors to watch include aviation, express delivery, and regional shipping, while high-dividend and low-debt companies are expected to attract more investor interest in weaker cyclical areas [5][34] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability driven by rising single-package prices, with major companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant improvements [6][35] - The trend of price competition has been curtailed, leading to a decrease in package volume growth as companies focus on maintaining service quality and profitability [6][38] - The competitive strategies among companies have diverged, with YTO and Shentong performing strongly, while Yunda has struggled with profitability and market share [42][53] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector has experienced a notable improvement in performance since Q2 2025, with major airlines reporting increased profitability compared to the previous year [63][64] - The focus for 2026 will be on the transition from high passenger load factors to higher ticket prices, supported by controlled supply and strong demand [69][87] - Major airlines are expected to maintain cautious procurement strategies, with a projected fleet growth of around 5% in 2026 [69][80] Highway Sector - The highway sector has faced significant adjustments in stock prices, leading to a more rational market approach towards high-dividend investments [8][4.1] - Following substantial adjustments, the attractiveness of highway stocks has improved, with a focus on companies with high dividend ratios and low debt levels [8][4.3]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002800 | 天顺股份 | 14.92 | -3.12% | 5.25万 | - 7887.17万 | | 603836 | 海程邦达 | 14.46 | -2.03% | 5.97万 | 8707.22万 | | 002889 | 东方嘉盛 | 16.15 | -2.00% | 9.89万 | 1.60亿 | | 300240 | 飞力达 | 7.54 | -1.57% | 7.37万 | 5583.80万 | | 603117 | 万林物流 | 5.06 | -1.56% | 6.81万 | 3451.79万 | | 603329 | 上海雅仕 | 11.22 | -1.49% | 2.33万 | 2624.10万 | | 300013 | 新宁物流 | 4.19 | -1.41% | 20.58万 | 8694.68万 | | 603871 | 嘉友国际 | 12.51 | -1.26% | 8.23万 | 1.03亿 | | 60005 ...

当地时间周一，特朗普在社交平台宣布，允许英伟达向中国 "获准客户" 出口H200 AI芯片，美方需获 25%销售收入分成，该规则将适用于 AMD 等企业。 周一，白宫经济顾问哈塞特称，特朗普将公布大量利好经济消息，他主张美联储继续降息，但强调降息 幅度需依数据而定，提前承诺利率路径不负责任。他同时回应美联储人选提名称愿效力，并表示美债收 益率有下行空间。而前白宫经济顾问弗兰克尔警告，美国债务危机已难挽回，公共债务占比将破纪录。 特朗普在社交平台上发文表示，将推出"单一规则"(ONE RULE)行政令。他强调，"如果我们要继续在AI 领域保持领先地位，就必须只有一套规则手册。"特朗普明确指出，企业不应被迫在每次开展业务时获 得50个州的分别批准。此外，特朗普称美国通胀问题已基本解决，否认会出现通缩。 美股方面，道指跌0.45%，纳指跌0.14%，标普500指数跌0.35%。 大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌超3%，谷歌跌超2%，亚马逊跌超1%，Meta跌0.98%，苹果跌0.32%， 英伟达、微软涨超1%。 热门中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.08%，百度涨超3%，小鹏汽车涨超2%，蔚来涨超 1%，理想 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，当前市值相较26年业绩性价比较高，关注26年业绩增长驱动 的估值修复机会。25年前10月快递业务量增长17.2%，其中10月同比+7.9%，从高频揽投数据来看，预 计11月增速略有回升。"反内卷"推动行业价格、盈利及估值修复：7 月以来邮政局多次召开"反内卷"相 关会议;8月以来大部分地区完成首轮价格上涨，涨幅0.2-0.4元，10月广东等局部地区价格二次上涨，涨 幅0.1-0.2元，旺季价格修复基本完成，有望推动Q4行业盈利同比大幅增长。从26年全年来看，盈利增 长趋势较为明确，当前市值相较26年业绩性价比较高，建议关注26年业绩增长驱动的估值修复机会。 招商证券主要观点如下： 上市快递公司核心数据 1)业务量增速分化，顺丰受益积极的业务开拓、增速领先行业，2025年10月顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通分别完 成快递业务量15.2/27.9/21.4/22.7亿票，同比变化分别为+26.3%/+12.8%/-5.1%/+4.0%;2)韵达申通单票价 格持续回升、顺丰受结构下沉影响同比依然承压，10月顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通单票收入分别为 13.18/2.23/2.11/2.18 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - Crude oil freight rates have declined from high levels, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) was reported at 2321.90 points on December 4, down 7.9% from November 27. The VLCC market has seen transactions at major loading ports, with shipowners trying to maintain price levels despite a cooling market [3][14] - China Eastern Airlines has launched the world's longest one-way flight route from Shanghai to Buenos Aires, reducing travel time by over 4 hours. Additionally, a ton-class eVTOL was included in urban firefighting drills for the first time [3][16] - In November, China's express delivery volume exceeded 180 billion items for the first time, marking a new record. The first full schedule China-Europe freight train departed from Shijiazhuang [3][24] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, with the Middle East route showing a 9.76% drop. The Shanghai port's export rates to Europe and the US have also seen declines of 0.3%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively [14][15] - The launch of the longest flight route by China Eastern Airlines connects Shanghai to Buenos Aires, significantly shortening travel time [16][17] - The express delivery volume in China reached a record high of 180 billion items in November, reflecting strong economic vitality [24][26] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index was reported at 5721.00 points, up 2.4% year-on-year [28] - Domestic freight flight numbers decreased by 2.03% year-on-year in November, while international flights increased by 14.88% [30] - The SCFI index for container shipping was reported at 1397.63 points, down 0.39% week-on-week and down 38.06% year-on-year [37] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Attention to the transportation demand increase driven by hydropower station construction in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream [5] - Investment opportunities in low-altitude economy trends, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [5] - Investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Shares [5] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [5] - Opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending Air China, China Southern Airlines, and others [5]

2025 年 12 月 07 日 相关研究 若研究知 证券分析师 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨签 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 貨船价跳談美注美股 HSHP, 运高股息关注中国船舶租赁、 申万宏源交运一周天地汇(20251130-202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in shipping and logistics sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery and growth potential in the shipping market, with specific attention to the rise in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) charter rates and the overall shipping market dynamics [6]. - It identifies key investment opportunities in companies such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and others, while also suggesting a focus on high-dividend stocks in the transportation sector [6][22]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - VLCC one-year charter rates have increased to $58,000 per day, indicating a strong market demand [6]. - The report notes a 6% week-on-week decline in VLCC rates, averaging $115,290 per day, but anticipates potential increases in the coming weeks due to expected cargo volume growth [6]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 6.5% to 2,727 points, with Capesize rates reaching a two-year high [6]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant opportunity for airlines due to the aging aircraft fleet and increasing passenger demand, predicting a "golden era" for the airline industry [6]. - Recommended stocks include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage operational efficiencies and rising demand [6]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with potential for profit recovery and industry consolidation [6]. - Companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong growth potential, particularly in Southeast Asia [6]. Road and Rail Transportation - The report indicates resilience in railway freight volumes and highway truck traffic, with a slight increase in railway cargo to 82.12 million tons, up 0.74% week-on-week [6]. - The highway sector is expected to benefit from high dividend yields and potential market value management catalysts [6].

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has seen a significant increase in volume, surpassing 180 billion packages in 2023, indicating rapid growth and a shift in operational focus from quantity to quality and service differentiation [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Growth and Changes - The express delivery volume in China has reached over 180 billion packages in 2023, marking a substantial increase from previous years [1] - The industry is transitioning from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on healthier profit margins and differentiated services [2][4] - Companies are no longer just competing on the number of packages delivered but are emphasizing smarter operations and enhanced service quality [1][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Pricing Strategies - The first half of 2023 saw a decline in single-package revenue for major companies due to intense price competition, with significant drops in cash flow for companies like Shentong Express and Yunda [2] - A policy shift initiated in July 2023 led to price increases across various regions, with companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express reporting a rise in single-package revenue in October [2][4] - The industry is witnessing a recovery in pricing, with companies focusing on improving service quality and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [3][5] Group 3: Service Differentiation and Quality Focus - The competition is evolving towards service quality, with companies like Zhongtong Express and Shunfeng Express emphasizing personalized services and comprehensive logistics solutions [4][5] - Shunfeng Express is focusing on high-end e-commerce markets and enhancing its service capabilities to drive revenue growth [5][6] - Companies are investing in technology and operational improvements to boost service quality and customer experience [7][8] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Technology is playing a crucial role in enhancing operational efficiency, with the adoption of AI and robotics across the logistics chain [7][8] - Innovations such as automated sorting systems and delivery drones are being integrated into the logistics process, significantly reducing operational costs [7] - Companies are also implementing digital solutions to improve management and decision-making processes within their networks [8]