2025 年 08 月 22 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 | | | | liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 秦一方 S0350523120001 | | | | qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 黄诗汶 S0350124040004 | | | | huangsw01@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 魔芋延续高景气，Q2 毛销差同比增速转正 ——盐津铺子（002847）2025 半年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | 2025/08/21 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 盐津铺子 | -3.0% | -20.3% | 89.3% | | 沪深 300 | 5.0% | 9.5% | 29.1% | | 市场数据 | | 2025/08/21 | | | 当前价格（元） | | 72.33 | ...

从品类表现看，"业绩支柱"辣卤零食上半年贡献了13.2亿元、约45%的营收，同比增长47.05%，是拉动整体营收增长的核心动力。但细分数据显示，这一增 长高度依赖其中的休闲魔芋制品——收入7.9亿元，同比大增155.1%；其他如休闲豆制品增长12.71%，而肉禽制品及其他辣卤零食均呈现双位数下滑。 去年，公司推出的麻酱素毛肚成为现象级单品，推动魔芋品类快速起量。有研报指出，盐津铺子的魔芋已接近卫龙一半体量。 左宇 摄 其他品类中，果干果冻收入4.28亿元，深海零食收入3.63亿元，蛋类零食实现营收3.09亿元，均存在不同程度的增长，但烘焙薯类出现了明显下滑，营收4.59 亿元，同比下降18.42%。 8月20日晚，盐津铺子（002847）发布2025年半年报。 报告期内，公司实现营收29.41亿元，同比增长19.58%；归母净利润为3.73亿元，同比增长16.7%。若从增长表现来看，这是其近三年营收、利润指标增速最 差的中报，2023年及2024年中期，盐津铺子营收同比增速分别为56.54%、29.84%，归母净利润增速为90.69%、30%，增长动能显露出放缓迹象。 盐津铺子聚焦辣卤零食、烘焙薯类、深海零食 ...

报告期内，公司实现营收29.41亿元，同比增长19.58%；归母净利润为3.73亿元，同比增长16.7%。若从 增长表现来看，这是其近三年营收、利润指标增速最差的中报，2023年及2024年中期，盐津铺子营收同 比增速分别为56.54%、29.84%，归母净利润增速为90.69%、30%，增长动能显露出放缓迹象。 盐津铺子聚焦辣卤零食、烘焙薯类、深海零食、蛋类零食、果干坚果以及蒟蒻果冻布丁等六大品类，目 前拥有"盐津铺子"主品牌及休闲魔芋零食"大魔王"、深海零食品牌"31°鲜"、蛋类零食"蛋皇"、蒟蒻果冻 品牌"蒟蒻满分"等品牌。 从品类表现看，"业绩支柱"辣卤零食上半年贡献了13.2亿元、约45%的营收，同比增长47.05%，是拉动 整体营收增长的核心动力。但细分数据显示，这一增长高度依赖其中的休闲魔芋制品——收入7.9亿 元，同比大增155.1%；其他如休闲豆制品增长12.71%，而肉禽制品及其他辣卤零食均呈现双位数下 滑。 去年，公司推出的麻酱素毛肚成为现象级单品，推动魔芋品类快速起量。有研报指出，盐津铺子的魔芋 已接近卫龙一半体量。 其他品类中，果干果冻收入4.28亿元，深海零食收入3.63亿元，蛋类 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 88.50 [1][4][7] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching RMB 2.94 billion, RMB 370 million, and RMB 330 million, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 19.6%, 16.7%, and 22.5% [1][2] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of RMB 1.4 billion, net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 190 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of RMB 180 million, with year-on-year growth of 13.5%, 21.7%, and 31.8% [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from category and channel dividends, with continued growth in quantitative circulation, snack wholesale, and membership supermarkets [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 29.7%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin attributable to the parent was 12.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points [3] - The company’s sales and management expense ratios decreased to 10.6% and 3.5%, respectively, due to channel structure optimization and reduced incentive expenses [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 5.30 billion in 2024 to RMB 8.51 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.89%, 18.02%, 18.15%, and 15.04% [10] - Net profit attributable to the parent is expected to increase from RMB 639.95 million in 2024 to RMB 1.14 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 26.53%, 25.62%, 20.12%, and 17.70% [10] Valuation - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 30x for 2025, with a target price of RMB 88.50, reflecting a downward adjustment from the previous target price of RMB 99.84 [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Salted Snack Company, Zhang Xuewen, plans to reduce his stake by up to 2%, potentially cashing out over 400 million yuan, coinciding with the company's stock price reaching a new high [1][5]. Group 1: Shareholder Reduction Announcement - On July 14, Salted Snack Company announced a pre-disclosure of share reduction by major shareholders and senior management [2]. - Zhang Xuewen, holding 15.38% of the shares, intends to reduce his holdings by a maximum of 5.4556 million shares, equating to 2% of the total share capital [2][4]. - Other executives, including Deputy General Manager Li Hanming and CFO Yang Feng, plan to reduce their holdings by a combined total of 97,100 shares, or 0.04% of the total share capital [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Based on the closing price of 74.84 yuan per share on July 14, if the maximum reduction occurs, Zhang Xuewen's cash-out could exceed 400 million yuan [5]. - As of July 15, the company's stock price was 73.80 yuan per share, reflecting a 19.81% increase since the beginning of the year, with a total market capitalization of 20.131 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Concerns - The announcement of the share reduction raised market concerns, leading to a 1.39% drop in the stock price on July 15 [6]. - The company cited "personal funding needs" as the reason for the reduction, despite Zhang Xuewen's departure from the company in October 2019 [5]. Group 4: Company Performance and Challenges - Since its listing in 2017, the company's revenue has grown from 754 million yuan to 5.304 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit has shown volatility [7]. - The company faces challenges in brand recognition compared to competitors, with a noted lack of market presence [9]. - Salted Snack Company has experienced a decline in gross margin from 43.83% in 2020 to 31.84% in 2024 due to competitive pressures from low-price strategies in the market [9]. Group 5: Food Safety Issues - The company has faced multiple food safety complaints, including issues with preservatives and product quality, leading to increased consumer scrutiny [11][15]. - In 2025, there were over 100 new complaints related to food safety, with a total of 748 complaints recorded on the Black Cat Complaint platform [15][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company's core categories continue to grow, with rapid expansion across multiple channels [2] - The company reported a revenue of 5.30 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.89%, and a net profit of 639.95 million yuan, up 26.53% year-on-year [7] - The company is focusing on brand strategy and product innovation, particularly in the konjac product category, which is expected to maintain high growth [7] - The company is expanding its distribution channels, including e-commerce and overseas markets, which is expected to enhance profitability [7] - The gross margin slightly decreased due to changes in channel structure, but effective cost control is anticipated to improve profitability [7] Financial Forecasts - The forecasted main revenue for 2024 is 5,303.93 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 28.89% for 2024, 28.28% for 2025, 21.46% for 2026, and 18.05% for 2027 [5][8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 846.85 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.33% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 3.10 yuan for 2025, 3.83 yuan for 2026, and 4.66 yuan for 2027 [5][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 37.22 in 2024 to 28.12 in 2025, and further to 22.77 in 2026 [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.89%, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, up 26.53% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company continues to expand its product categories and channels, with significant growth in its major products, particularly in the spicy snacks and dried fruit segments [2][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its cost structure and improving operational efficiency, which has led to a decrease in expense ratios [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 5.304 billion yuan, with a net profit of 640 million yuan, and a net profit margin of 12.07% [1][3]. - The revenue growth rates for major product categories in 2024 were as follows: spicy snacks at 32.36%, deep-sea snacks at 9.10%, baked potato products at 17.31%, and dried fruits and nuts at 81.50% [2]. Channel Expansion - The company is actively expanding its sales channels, with revenue from direct supermarkets, distribution, and e-commerce channels reported at 1.88 billion yuan, 3.956 billion yuan, and 1.159 billion yuan respectively in 2024 [2]. - The company is also entering high-end membership stores and overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, to drive future growth [2]. Cost Structure and Efficiency - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 30.69%, with a slight decline in Q1 2025 due to changes in channel structure [3]. - The company has successfully reduced its sales and management expense ratios, indicating improved operational efficiency [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for the company are maintained at 855 million yuan for 2025 and 1.225 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding EPS estimates of 3.13 yuan and 4.49 yuan [4][10]. - The current P/E ratios are projected to be 29 for 2025, 24 for 2026, and 20 for 2027, reflecting a favorable valuation outlook [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has excellent quality, with a clear logic for expanding product categories and channels. The dividend payout ratio is expected to continue increasing in 2024. The combination of category benefits and new channel expansion is anticipated to drive revenue growth beyond expectations in 2025, with scale advantages and raw material price advantages likely to lead to profit growth exceeding expectations [1][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.304 billion yuan (up 28.89% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 640 million yuan (up 26.53% year-on-year). In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.537 billion yuan (up 25.69% year-on-year) and a net profit of 178 million yuan (up 11.64% year-on-year) [2] - For 2024, the company’s revenue from various product categories showed significant growth, with the spicy and marinated snacks generating 1.962 billion yuan (up 32.36% year-on-year), and konjac products achieving 838 million yuan (up 76.09% year-on-year). Other categories also reported positive growth rates [3] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 30.69% (down 2.85 percentage points), and for Q1 2025, it was 28.47% (down 3.63 percentage points). The decline in gross margin is attributed to changes in channel structure and the lower contribution from high-margin gift products during the Spring Festival [4] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.833 billion yuan, 8.642 billion yuan, and 10.674 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.82%, 26.48%, and 23.52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 859 million yuan, 1.084 billion yuan, and 1.345 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 34.24%, 26.16%, and 24.13% [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Salted Fish's financial performance shows strong growth in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by successful product launches and strategic brand initiatives [1][2][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.89%, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, up 26.53% [1] - Q4 2024 revenue reached 1.443 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29.96%, and net profit of 147 million yuan, increasing by 33.66% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.537 billion yuan, up 25.69%, with net profit at 178 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.64% [1] Product Categories and Growth Drivers - Key product categories such as spicy snacks, baked potato products, and konjac jelly showed significant revenue growth, with spicy snacks generating 1.962 billion yuan, up 32.4% [2] - The "Big Demon" sesame sauce and "Egg Emperor" quail eggs have become top-selling items, contributing to the company's growth [2] - The company initiated a brand strategy in 2024, leading to high sales performance during the Spring Festival [2] Channel Development and Structure - Revenue from direct supermarkets decreased by 43.72%, while e-commerce and other channels saw increases of 39.95% and 34.01%, respectively [3] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with overseas revenue reaching 62.74 million yuan in 2024, compared to 314,900 yuan in 2023 [3] - The channel structure is expected to improve, with high-growth channels anticipated to outpace overall company growth in 2025 [3] Profitability and Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin was 30.69% in 2024, down 2.85 percentage points, and 28.47% in Q1 2025, down 3.63 percentage points, primarily due to changes in channel structure [4] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased, influenced by brand-building efforts and stock compensation [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 12.07% and 11.59%, respectively, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [4] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on strengthening its product lines and supply chain, particularly in the konjac category, with plans for production line expansion in China and Thailand [5] - The organization has established three product divisions based on flavor profiles to enhance product focus [5] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are set at 6.795 billion, 8.252 billion, and 9.539 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 853 million, 1.053 billion, and 1.240 billion yuan, respectively [6]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 640 million yuan, up 26.53% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing significant growth in the konjac product category, with a strong overseas expansion strategy [2][3] - The gross margin has faced pressure, but cost control measures have improved [4][5] - The company has initiated a brand strategy focusing on "Big Demon King" and "Egg Emperor," which is showing early signs of success [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward, indicating positive growth expectations [7] Financial Performance - FY24 revenue breakdown: spicy snacks (1.962 billion yuan, +32.36%), baked potato products (1.158 billion yuan, +17.31%), deep-sea snacks (675 million yuan, +9.10%), egg snacks (580 million yuan, +81.87%), nuts (484 million yuan, +81.50%), konjac jelly pudding (301 million yuan, +39.10%), and other income (144 million yuan, -36.09%) [2] - Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.69%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 178 million yuan, up 11.64% [1] Product and Channel Analysis - The konjac product line, particularly the "Big Demon King" brand, has driven significant growth, with a record-breaking single product sales milestone [2] - Revenue by channel in FY24: direct sales (188 million yuan, -43.72%), distribution and other channels (3.956 billion yuan, +34.01%), and e-commerce (1.159 billion yuan, +39.95%) [2] - The company aims to replicate its success in overseas markets, with over 80% of international sales currently coming from Thailand [3] Cost and Profitability - Gross margins for FY24, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 were 30.69%, 27.62%, and 28.47%, respectively, reflecting a decline due to the rapid growth of lower-margin channels [4] - The company has improved its cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing a decrease in FY24 compared to the previous year [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a category brand strategy, focusing on high-potential products like konjac and quail eggs, aiming for a dual-driven growth model of "products + channels" [6] - The strategic transformation has already led to the development of two major hit products, indicating a successful execution of the brand strategy [6] Investment Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 6.594 billion yuan and 7.968 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 9.431 billion yuan [7] - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have also been increased to 3.10 yuan and 3.86 yuan, respectively, with a new estimate of 4.52 yuan for 2027 [7]