—— 2024 年年报点评 维持评级 高峰 钱德胜 | 市场数据 | 2025-03-13 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 002916.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 128.00 | | 上证指数 | 3358.73 | | 总股本(万股) | 51,287.75 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 51,155.43 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 655 | -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 300 ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ · 电子行业 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 17907.45 | 21921.86 | 26598.97 | 29835.03 | | 收入增长率% | 32.39 | 22.42 | 21.34 | 12.17 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1877.57 | 2372.82 | 2801.21 | 3232.48 | | 利润增速% | 34.29 | 26.38 | 18.05 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 17,907.45 million in 2024, increasing to 29,835.03 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.34% from 2025 to 2027 [5][7] - Net profit is forecasted to grow from 1,877.57 million in 2024 to 3,232.48 million in 2027, indicating a strong profit growth trajectory [5][7] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 24.83% in 2024 to 26.13% in 2027, suggesting enhanced operational efficiency [5][7] Financial Summary Income Statement - Revenue is projected to grow from 17,907.45 million in 2024 to 29,835.03 million in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 32.39% in 2024, tapering to 12.17% by 2027 [5][7] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 2,028.25 million in 2024 to 3,499.67 million in 2027, with a notable operating profit margin improvement [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 1,877.57 million in 2024 to 3,232.48 million in 2027, with a net profit margin of approximately 10.83% by 2027 [7] Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from 25,302.25 million in 2024 to 38,458.48 million in 2027, indicating a robust asset base expansion [6] - The company's equity attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 14,617.02 million in 2024 to 23,055.74 million in 2027, reflecting strong retained earnings and capital growth [6] Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is anticipated to rise from 2,982.22 million in 2024 to 4,560.58 million in 2027, indicating improved cash generation capabilities [6] - The net increase in cash is projected to be 700.63 million in 2024, growing significantly to 4,424.20 million by 2027, showcasing strong liquidity management [6]

电子/元件 | 日期 | 2025/3/14 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 138.76 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 164.28/78.68 | | 总市值(亿元) | 711.67 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 709.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.13 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.12 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 110.62 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 深南电路 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q3 业绩同比高增，两大主业协 同发力促成长—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.10.29 ——公司信息更新报告 2025 年 03 月 15 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 2024 业绩高增，2025 期待 PCB 结构持续优化+BT 载板修复 +ABF 载板放量 陈蓉芳（分析师） 刘琦（分析师） chenrongfang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524120002 liuqi1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525020001 2024 年业 ...

深南电路(002916) / 元件 / 公司点评 / 2025.03.14 产线爬坡短期承压，AI 驱动构筑长期成长动能 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-03-13 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 128.00 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.12 | | 每股净资产(元) | 28.50 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.13 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -11% 10% 31% 52% 73% 94% 深南电路 沪深300 元件 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com ❖ 事件：2024 年，公司实现营收 179.07 亿元，同比+32.39%；实现归母净利润 18.78 亿元，同比 34.29%；扣非后净利润 17.40 亿元，同比+74.34%。 ❖ 由于新产线爬坡等因素短期业绩承压：公司 2024 第四季度实现收入 48.58 亿元，同比+19.51%，环比+2.74%；归母净利润 3.90 亿元，同比-20.50%，环 比-22.22%；扣非净利润 3.64 亿元，同比 ...

2025 年 3 月 14 日 公司研究 业绩快速增长，受益 AI 浪潮 ——深南电路（002916.SZ）跟踪报告之五 要点 24 年业绩快速增长：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司营业收入 179.07 亿 元，同比增长 32.39%；实现归母净利润 18.78 亿元，同比增长 34.29%。 印制电路板业务充分把握算力及汽车电子市场机遇。2024 年公司印制电路板业 务实现主营业务收入 104.94 亿元，同比增长 29.99%，占公司营业总收入比例 为 58.60%。公司在通信领域把握行业结构性机会，实现产品结构优化。2024 年公司通信领域主要得益于高速交换机、光模块产品需求增长，有线侧通信产品 占比提升，实现了订单规模同比快速增长，产品结构进一步优化，盈利能力有所 改善。公司在数据中心领域受益于 AI 服务器相关需求增长及行业周期性回暖， 业务规模明显增长。2024 年公司数据中心领域订单同比取得显著增长，成为 PCB 业务继通信领域后第二个达 20 亿元级订单规模的下游市场。 封装基板业务推动新产品持续导入。2024 年公司封装基板业务实现主营业务收 入 31.71 亿元，同比增长 3 ...

元件 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524030001 Email：liubw@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 512.88 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 511.55 | | 市价(元) | 128.00 | | 市值(百万元) | 65,648.32 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 65,478.95 | 深南电路（002916.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：王芳 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 13,526 | 17,907 | 21,547 | 24,863 | 29,425 | | 执业证书编号：S07 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 146.81, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current price of RMB 128 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust performance for the fiscal year 2024, with revenue increasing by 32.4% year-on-year to RMB 17.9 billion, surpassing estimates [1]. - Net profit also saw a significant rise of 34.3% year-on-year to RMB 1.9 billion, aligning with estimates but slightly below consensus [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 24.8%, up from 23.4% in the previous fiscal year, driven by recovering demand despite the impact of new factory expansions [1]. - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 15% and 21% respectively, reflecting higher utilization rates and increased capital expenditures from domestic cloud companies [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid penetration of high-end autonomous driving systems, which will drive growth in automotive PCB revenue [1]. Revenue and Profitability - PCB sales increased by 30% to RMB 10.5 billion, driven by strong demand from data centers and automotive sectors, despite a decline in the telecommunications industry [2]. - The gross profit margin for PCBs improved to 31.6% in fiscal year 2024, up from 26.6% in fiscal year 2023, reflecting higher capacity utilization and an optimized product mix [2]. - The PCBA segment also experienced a year-on-year growth of 33.2%, benefiting from strong performance in data center and automotive sales [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 17.9 billion in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 28.2 billion by fiscal year 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.5% during the period [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1.9 billion in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 3.7 billion by fiscal year 2027, with a CAGR of 28.5% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 3.66 in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 7.24 by fiscal year 2027 [4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned to outperform expectations in the PCB market, leveraging its leading position and increased capacity in FC-BGA substrates [3]. - The report suggests that the company will benefit from the trend of localization within the industry, enhancing its competitive edge [3].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Shennan Circuit to BUY, with a new target price of RMB146.81, up from the previous RMB115.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current price of RMB128.00 [1][3]. Core Insights - Shennan Circuit reported solid FY24 results, with revenue increasing by 32.4% year-on-year to RMB17.9 billion, surpassing estimates by 2% and 7% compared to internal estimates and Bloomberg consensus, respectively. Net profit rose by 34.3% year-on-year to RMB1.9 billion, aligning with internal estimates but falling 2% short of Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 24.8% in FY24 from 23.4% in FY23, reflecting a recovery in demand, although this was partially offset by the ramp-up of a new factory [1]. - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been revised upwards by 15% and 21%, respectively, due to higher utilization rates, increased revenue from data center and AI-related sectors, and better growth in automotive PCB revenue [1][10]. - Net profit estimates for FY25 and FY26 have also been increased by 12% and 16%, respectively, despite lower GPM estimates due to ongoing capacity ramp-up costs [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue reached RMB17,907 million, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. The projected revenue for FY25 is RMB21,551 million, reflecting a growth of 20.3% [2][13]. - The net profit for FY24 was RMB1,878 million, with a year-on-year growth of 34.3%. The forecast for FY25 is RMB2,429 million, indicating a growth of 29.4% [2][13]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 25.1% for FY25, with a gradual increase to 26.2% by FY27 [2][13]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Shennan Circuit is positioned as a key beneficiary of domestic localization trends, particularly in the PCB market, with significant growth expected in the data center and automotive sectors [1][7]. - The PCB sales grew by 30% year-on-year to RMB10.5 billion, driven by strong demand in data centers and automotive applications, despite a decline in telecom-related sales [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing capital expenditure by domestic cloud companies and the faster-than-anticipated penetration of high-end autonomous driving systems [1][7].

2025 年 3 月 14 日 公司研究 业绩快速增长，受益 AI 浪潮 ——深南电路（002916.SZ）跟踪报告之五 要点 24 年业绩快速增长：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司营业收入 179.07 亿 元，同比增长 32.39%；实现归母净利润 18.78 亿元，同比增长 34.29%。 印制电路板业务充分把握算力及汽车电子市场机遇。2024 年公司印制电路板业 务实现主营业务收入 104.94 亿元，同比增长 29.99%，占公司营业总收入比例 为 58.60%。公司在通信领域把握行业结构性机会，实现产品结构优化。2024 年公司通信领域主要得益于高速交换机、光模块产品需求增长，有线侧通信产品 占比提升，实现了订单规模同比快速增长，产品结构进一步优化，盈利能力有所 改善。公司在数据中心领域受益于 AI 服务器相关需求增长及行业周期性回暖， 业务规模明显增长。2024 年公司数据中心领域订单同比取得显著增长，成为 PCB 业务继通信领域后第二个达 20 亿元级订单规模的下游市场。 封装基板业务推动新产品持续导入。2024 年公司封装基板业务实现主营业务收 入 31.71 亿元，同比增长 3 ...

2025 年 3 月 14 日 公司研究 业绩快速增长，受益 AI 浪潮 ——深南电路（002916.SZ）跟踪报告之五 要点 24 年业绩快速增长：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司营业收入 179.07 亿 元，同比增长 32.39%；实现归母净利润 18.78 亿元，同比增长 34.29%。 印制电路板业务充分把握算力及汽车电子市场机遇。2024 年公司印制电路板业 务实现主营业务收入 104.94 亿元，同比增长 29.99%，占公司营业总收入比例 为 58.60%。公司在通信领域把握行业结构性机会，实现产品结构优化。2024 年公司通信领域主要得益于高速交换机、光模块产品需求增长，有线侧通信产品 占比提升，实现了订单规模同比快速增长，产品结构进一步优化，盈利能力有所 改善。公司在数据中心领域受益于 AI 服务器相关需求增长及行业周期性回暖， 业务规模明显增长。2024 年公司数据中心领域订单同比取得显著增长，成为 PCB 业务继通信领域后第二个达 20 亿元级订单规模的下游市场。 封装基板业务推动新产品持续导入。2024 年公司封装基板业务实现主营业务收 入 31.71 亿元，同比增长 3 ...