深南电路(002916) / 元件 / 公司点评 / 2025.03.14 产线爬坡短期承压，AI 驱动构筑长期成长动能 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-03-13 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 128.00 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.12 | | 每股净资产(元) | 28.50 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.13 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -11% 10% 31% 52% 73% 94% 深南电路 沪深300 元件 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com ❖ 事件：2024 年，公司实现营收 179.07 亿元，同比+32.39%；实现归母净利润 18.78 亿元，同比 34.29%；扣非后净利润 17.40 亿元，同比+74.34%。 ❖ 由于新产线爬坡等因素短期业绩承压：公司 2024 第四季度实现收入 48.58 亿元，同比+19.51%，环比+2.74%；归母净利润 3.90 亿元，同比-20.50%，环 比-22.22%；扣非净利润 3.64 亿元，同比 ...

2025 年 3 月 14 日 公司研究 业绩快速增长，受益 AI 浪潮 ——深南电路（002916.SZ）跟踪报告之五 要点 24 年业绩快速增长：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司营业收入 179.07 亿 元，同比增长 32.39%；实现归母净利润 18.78 亿元，同比增长 34.29%。 印制电路板业务充分把握算力及汽车电子市场机遇。2024 年公司印制电路板业 务实现主营业务收入 104.94 亿元，同比增长 29.99%，占公司营业总收入比例 为 58.60%。公司在通信领域把握行业结构性机会，实现产品结构优化。2024 年公司通信领域主要得益于高速交换机、光模块产品需求增长，有线侧通信产品 占比提升，实现了订单规模同比快速增长，产品结构进一步优化，盈利能力有所 改善。公司在数据中心领域受益于 AI 服务器相关需求增长及行业周期性回暖， 业务规模明显增长。2024 年公司数据中心领域订单同比取得显著增长，成为 PCB 业务继通信领域后第二个达 20 亿元级订单规模的下游市场。 封装基板业务推动新产品持续导入。2024 年公司封装基板业务实现主营业务收 入 31.71 亿元，同比增长 3 ...

元件 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524030001 Email：liubw@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 512.88 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 511.55 | | 市价(元) | 128.00 | | 市值(百万元) | 65,648.32 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 65,478.95 | 深南电路（002916.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：王芳 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 13,526 | 17,907 | 21,547 | 24,863 | 29,425 | | 执业证书编号：S07 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 146.81, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current price of RMB 128 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust performance for the fiscal year 2024, with revenue increasing by 32.4% year-on-year to RMB 17.9 billion, surpassing estimates [1]. - Net profit also saw a significant rise of 34.3% year-on-year to RMB 1.9 billion, aligning with estimates but slightly below consensus [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 24.8%, up from 23.4% in the previous fiscal year, driven by recovering demand despite the impact of new factory expansions [1]. - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 15% and 21% respectively, reflecting higher utilization rates and increased capital expenditures from domestic cloud companies [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid penetration of high-end autonomous driving systems, which will drive growth in automotive PCB revenue [1]. Revenue and Profitability - PCB sales increased by 30% to RMB 10.5 billion, driven by strong demand from data centers and automotive sectors, despite a decline in the telecommunications industry [2]. - The gross profit margin for PCBs improved to 31.6% in fiscal year 2024, up from 26.6% in fiscal year 2023, reflecting higher capacity utilization and an optimized product mix [2]. - The PCBA segment also experienced a year-on-year growth of 33.2%, benefiting from strong performance in data center and automotive sales [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 17.9 billion in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 28.2 billion by fiscal year 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.5% during the period [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1.9 billion in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 3.7 billion by fiscal year 2027, with a CAGR of 28.5% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 3.66 in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 7.24 by fiscal year 2027 [4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned to outperform expectations in the PCB market, leveraging its leading position and increased capacity in FC-BGA substrates [3]. - The report suggests that the company will benefit from the trend of localization within the industry, enhancing its competitive edge [3].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Shennan Circuit to BUY, with a new target price of RMB146.81, up from the previous RMB115.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current price of RMB128.00 [1][3]. Core Insights - Shennan Circuit reported solid FY24 results, with revenue increasing by 32.4% year-on-year to RMB17.9 billion, surpassing estimates by 2% and 7% compared to internal estimates and Bloomberg consensus, respectively. Net profit rose by 34.3% year-on-year to RMB1.9 billion, aligning with internal estimates but falling 2% short of Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 24.8% in FY24 from 23.4% in FY23, reflecting a recovery in demand, although this was partially offset by the ramp-up of a new factory [1]. - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been revised upwards by 15% and 21%, respectively, due to higher utilization rates, increased revenue from data center and AI-related sectors, and better growth in automotive PCB revenue [1][10]. - Net profit estimates for FY25 and FY26 have also been increased by 12% and 16%, respectively, despite lower GPM estimates due to ongoing capacity ramp-up costs [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue reached RMB17,907 million, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. The projected revenue for FY25 is RMB21,551 million, reflecting a growth of 20.3% [2][13]. - The net profit for FY24 was RMB1,878 million, with a year-on-year growth of 34.3%. The forecast for FY25 is RMB2,429 million, indicating a growth of 29.4% [2][13]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 25.1% for FY25, with a gradual increase to 26.2% by FY27 [2][13]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Shennan Circuit is positioned as a key beneficiary of domestic localization trends, particularly in the PCB market, with significant growth expected in the data center and automotive sectors [1][7]. - The PCB sales grew by 30% year-on-year to RMB10.5 billion, driven by strong demand in data centers and automotive applications, despite a decline in telecom-related sales [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing capital expenditure by domestic cloud companies and the faster-than-anticipated penetration of high-end autonomous driving systems [1][7].

2025 年 3 月 14 日 公司研究 业绩快速增长，受益 AI 浪潮 ——深南电路（002916.SZ）跟踪报告之五 要点 24 年业绩快速增长：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司营业收入 179.07 亿 元，同比增长 32.39%；实现归母净利润 18.78 亿元，同比增长 34.29%。 印制电路板业务充分把握算力及汽车电子市场机遇。2024 年公司印制电路板业 务实现主营业务收入 104.94 亿元，同比增长 29.99%，占公司营业总收入比例 为 58.60%。公司在通信领域把握行业结构性机会，实现产品结构优化。2024 年公司通信领域主要得益于高速交换机、光模块产品需求增长，有线侧通信产品 占比提升，实现了订单规模同比快速增长，产品结构进一步优化，盈利能力有所 改善。公司在数据中心领域受益于 AI 服务器相关需求增长及行业周期性回暖， 业务规模明显增长。2024 年公司数据中心领域订单同比取得显著增长，成为 PCB 业务继通信领域后第二个达 20 亿元级订单规模的下游市场。 封装基板业务推动新产品持续导入。2024 年公司封装基板业务实现主营业务收 入 31.71 亿元，同比增长 3 ...

2025 年 3 月 14 日 公司研究 业绩快速增长，受益 AI 浪潮 ——深南电路（002916.SZ）跟踪报告之五 要点 24 年业绩快速增长：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司营业收入 179.07 亿 元，同比增长 32.39%；实现归母净利润 18.78 亿元，同比增长 34.29%。 印制电路板业务充分把握算力及汽车电子市场机遇。2024 年公司印制电路板业 务实现主营业务收入 104.94 亿元，同比增长 29.99%，占公司营业总收入比例 为 58.60%。公司在通信领域把握行业结构性机会，实现产品结构优化。2024 年公司通信领域主要得益于高速交换机、光模块产品需求增长，有线侧通信产品 占比提升，实现了订单规模同比快速增长，产品结构进一步优化，盈利能力有所 改善。公司在数据中心领域受益于 AI 服务器相关需求增长及行业周期性回暖， 业务规模明显增长。2024 年公司数据中心领域订单同比取得显著增长，成为 PCB 业务继通信领域后第二个达 20 亿元级订单规模的下游市场。 封装基板业务推动新产品持续导入。2024 年公司封装基板业务实现主营业务收 入 31.71 亿元，同比增长 3 ...

证券代码：002916 证券简称：深南电路 深南电路股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 Q3、请介绍公司封装基板业务在 FC-BGA 产品方面取得的进展。 PCB 业务毛利率的增长得益于营收规模增加，PCB 工厂产能利用率提升，AI 相关领域 订单需求增长助益 PCB 业务产品结构优化。同时，公司针对性开展多项运营管理能力提升 2 器总体需求显著回温；汽车电子领域电动化/智能化趋势促进订单需求持续释放。 工作，通过提升原材料利用率、前置引导客户设计、优化能源管理等多种方式强化成本竞争 力，并针对部分瓶颈工序进行技术提效，保障高效产出，对 PCB 业务毛利率的提升起到正 向作用。 Q2、请介绍 2024 年公司封装基板业务营业收入及毛利率的变动原因。 2024 年，封装基板业务实现主营业务收入 31.71 亿元，同比增长 37.49%；毛利率 18.15%， 同比减少 5.72 个百分点。封装基板业务在全球基板行业温和修复的环境下，加大市场拓展 力度，加快推进新产品和新客户导入，推动订单较去年增长。封装基板业务毛利率的下降主 要由于广州封装基板项目爬坡、金盐等部分原材料涨价，叠加下半年 BT 类基板市场需求波 动 ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 3 月 13 日 002916.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 127.07 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 4.6 (11.1) 27.7 50.8 相对深圳成指 (2.9) (12.4) 28.7 38.2 发行股数 (百万) 512.88 流通股 (百万) 511.55 总市值 (人民币 百万) 65,171.35 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 1,200.29 主要股东 (17%) 5% 27% 49% 71% 92% Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 深南电路 深圳成指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 日收市价为标准 以 2025 年 3 月 12 相关研究报告 《深南电路》20241031 《深南电路》20240828 《深南电路》20240710 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子：元件 证券分析师： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high growth in its PCB business by leveraging structural opportunities, while its packaging substrate business is accelerating the introduction of high-end products [3][5]. - The company is projected to generate revenues of RMB 21.33 billion, RMB 24.96 billion, and RMB 29.04 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 2.73 billion, RMB 3.20 billion, and RMB 3.58 billion [5][7]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 17.91 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.39%, and a net profit of RMB 1.88 billion, up 34.29% year-on-year [8]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is RMB 5.33, with a PE ratio of 23.9 times [5][7]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is expected to be RMB 4.16 billion, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [7][8]. Business Performance - The PCB segment achieved a revenue of RMB 10.49 billion in 2024, growing by 29.99% year-on-year, driven by demand in the communication and automotive electronics sectors [8]. - The packaging substrate business generated RMB 3.17 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 37.49%, despite facing challenges such as rising raw material costs [8]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the potential recovery in the packaging substrate market and the continuous optimization of the company's project capabilities, driven by AI and automotive electronics [5][8].