Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 16.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.326 billion yuan, up 56.30% year-on-year [7]. - The demand for AI acceleration cards, switches, optical modules, servers, and related products continues to rise, contributing to increased orders and revenue for storage packaging substrate products [7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new facilities, including the Nantong Phase IV and a factory in Thailand, which are expected to enhance PCB production capabilities [7]. - The company's gross margin improved significantly in Q3, reaching 31.39%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points year-on-year and 3.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The projected net profit for 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 3.319 billion yuan, 4.120 billion yuan, and 4.820 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.98 yuan, 6.18 yuan, and 7.23 yuan [7]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 17.907 billion yuan in 2024 to 31.244 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 32.4%, 27.4%, 21.0%, and 13.2% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.878 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.820 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 34.3%, 76.8%, 24.1%, and 17.0% respectively [2]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 24.8% in 2024 to 28.0% in 2027 [2]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 80.89 in 2024 to 31.51 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of the year, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating robust demand in key business areas such as PCB and AI-related products [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 16.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, and a net profit of 2.33 billion, up 56.3% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 6.30 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.1%. Net profit for Q3 was 970 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 92.9% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 11.2% [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 28.2%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.9%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Segment Insights - The PCB business was a major growth driver, contributing approximately 400 million in quarter-on-quarter growth, driven by strong demand in AI servers, switches, and optical modules [2]. - The BT substrate business also saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 200 million, primarily due to rising demand in the storage market and upward price trends [2]. - The electronic assembly business experienced a slight decline quarter-on-quarter [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from strong demand in AI computing and ongoing capacity expansion, with new projects in Thailand and Nantong progressing well [3]. - The company is actively enhancing its production capabilities and optimizing product structure, which is anticipated to lead to further profitability improvements [3]. - In the medium to long term, the company is well-positioned in both overseas and domestic computing supply chains, with plans for significant capacity expansion in AI computing [3].

Market Performance - The National Big Fund holding concept declined by 2.96%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors as of the market close on October 31 [1] - Within this sector, notable declines were seen in companies such as Yandong Micro, Shenzhen South Circuit, and Jiangbolong, while six stocks experienced price increases, with Aisen Co., Robot, and Jingjiawei leading with gains of 4.14%, 0.88%, and 0.44% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The National Big Fund holding concept experienced a net outflow of 8.299 billion yuan, with 41 stocks seeing net outflows, and 21 stocks having outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was SMIC, with a net outflow of 1.470 billion yuan, followed by Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, and Huahong Company with net outflows of 646 million yuan, 638 million yuan, and 612 million yuan respectively [2] Top Decliners - The top decliners in the National Big Fund holding concept included: - SMIC: -3.40% with a turnover rate of 3.46% and a net outflow of 1.470 billion yuan [3] - Zhongwei Company: -6.89% with a turnover rate of 3.04% and a net outflow of 646 million yuan [3] - Tuojing Technology: -6.66% with a turnover rate of 4.72% and a net outflow of 638 million yuan [3] Top Gainers - The stocks with the highest net inflows included: - Aisen Co.: 4.14% increase with a net inflow of 589.075 million yuan [4] - Jingjiawei: 0.44% increase with a net inflow of 437.647 million yuan [4] - Saiwei Electronics: -0.53% with a net inflow of 23.2725 million yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company has shown robust growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the AI PCB and storage sectors, with a positive outlook for the packaging substrate market [3][8]. - The report highlights the company's strategic investments in high-end PCB capacity and the expected benefits from rising BT substrate prices due to material supply constraints [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 167.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.39%, and a net profit of RMB 23.26 billion, up 56.30% year-on-year [8]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 28.20%, an increase of 2.30 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 230.02 billion, RMB 321.10 billion, and RMB 419.23 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The expected net profits for the same years are RMB 33.41 billion, RMB 58.16 billion, and RMB 76.43 billion, respectively [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of RMB 5.01, RMB 8.72, and RMB 11.46 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 46.6, 26.8, and 20.4 [5][7]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 155.64 billion [3]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in demand for high-speed PCBs in communication and data center sectors, particularly for products related to AI and high-performance computing [8]. - The tightening supply of T-Glass fiberglass materials is expected to lead to price increases for BT substrates, benefiting the company's operations [8].

Summary of Shennan Circuit (002916.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shennan Circuit - **Industry**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) manufacturing - **Market Position**: Leading PCB supplier in China, focusing on telecom and aeronautics sectors, with a "3-in-1" model encompassing PCB, PCB assembly, and IC substrate packaging [20][21] Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue Growth**: - 9M25 revenue increased by 28.4% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB 16.754 billion, with 3Q25 growth at 33.3% compared to 25.6% in 1H25 [1] - **Net Profit**: - Attributable net profit surged 56.3% YoY to RMB 2.326 billion, with 3Q25 growth accelerating to 92.9% compared to 37.8% in 1H25 [1] - **Earnings Estimates**: - 2025-27 earnings estimates raised by 13-15%, target price increased to RMB 281 from RMB 230 based on a 48x PE for 2026E [1][22] 4Q25 Outlook - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected 4Q25 revenue growth of 33% YoY to RMB 6.427 billion, similar to 3Q growth [3] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Anticipated net profit growth of 115% to RMB 838 million, driven by a low base in 4Q24 [3] Capacity Expansion Plans - **New Plants**: - Thai plant to start in mid-2025, targeting annual revenue of RMB 1.3 billion - Nantong Phase 4 for AI-PCB to commence in 4Q25, with projected annual revenue of RMB 1.5 billion [4] - **Capital Expenditure**: High capex of around RMB 3 billion per annum planned to support AI infrastructure growth [4] Margin and Cost Insights - **Gross Margin**: - 3Q25 gross margin improved to 31.4%, with net margin rising to 15.3% [11] - **Material Cost Inflation**: - Major CCL players increased ASP by RMB 5-10 per sheet in October due to a ~10% rise in copper costs [12] Segment Performance - **PCB and Substrate Segments**: - PCB segment gross margin reached a record high of 36% in 3Q25, with AI-PCB margins estimated at over 40% [10] - Substrate gross margin improved significantly to ~20% in 3Q25 from 15% in 1H25 [10] Investment Strategy - **Recommendation**: Buy rating maintained, with a preference for Shengyi Tech over Shennan due to higher operating leverage in the CCL industry [1][21] - **Market Exposure**: Over 80% revenue exposure to PCB-related businesses, with strong growth potential in AI servers and automotive sectors [21] Risks - **Downside Risks**: - Slower-than-expected growth in AI server demand, weaker automotive demand, and higher laminate cost inflation could impact performance [23] Conclusion - Shennan Circuit is positioned for significant growth driven by its strong market position in the PCB sector, ongoing capacity expansions, and favorable industry dynamics, despite potential risks from market fluctuations and cost pressures [1][21][23]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has achieved significant accomplishments, marking a good start for the new journey towards the second centenary goal [6] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for transitioning towards a modern socialist society, emphasizing the need to address uncertainties and enhance high-quality development [7] - The implicit target for economic growth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is around 5%, with necessary growth rates for GNI and GDP projected to exceed 6.3% and 4.6% respectively [8] Group 2: Power Industry Insights - The power demand in China has maintained steady growth, with total electricity consumption reaching 7.77 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [22] - The coal price has bottomed out, leading to a stabilization of electricity prices, with the average monthly trading price in Jiangsu rising to 395.60 RMB/MWh, an increase of 82.80 RMB/MWh [23] - The electricity market is expected to see a balanced supply-demand situation, with a focus on enhancing the profitability of thermal power and the growth of renewable energy sources [24] Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - The company "特锐德" reported a net profit of 3.59 billion RMB for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 41.53% and a gross margin of 27.76% [28] - "富特科技" achieved a net profit of 0.70 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 186.93%, driven by effective cost management and scale effects [37] - "招商积余" reported a revenue of 139.42 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 14.65% and a net profit of 6.86 billion RMB [31] Group 4: Electronics Industry Insights - "深南电路" achieved record high revenues and profits in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 167.54 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.39% [56] - The company’s gross margin improved to 31.39%, benefiting from an enhanced product mix and increased utilization rates [57]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant shifts in the holdings of actively managed equity funds in the third quarter of 2025, with a notable rise in technology stocks and a decline in traditional consumer stocks like Kweichow Moutai [3][4][6]. Group 1: Fund Holdings Overview - As of September 2025, the total assets under management in the public fund industry reached 35.85 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.30% [3]. - The top three holdings of actively managed equity funds are dominated by technology companies, with CATL reclaiming the top position, surpassing Tencent Holdings [3][4]. - Kweichow Moutai's total market value held by active equity funds decreased to 29.958 billion yuan, down from 30.616 billion yuan in the previous quarter, dropping from third to seventh place among top holdings [3][6]. Group 2: Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector emerged as the primary focus for public fund investments, with seven out of the top ten holdings being technology-related companies [4]. - Notable performers include Xinyi Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang, both of which ranked among the top three heavyweights [4]. - The current market trend indicates a strong and sustained interest in technology stocks, driven by China's economic transformation towards a hard-tech model [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges in Traditional Consumer Sector - The traditional consumer sector, particularly the liquor industry, is facing significant challenges, with 59.7% of liquor companies reporting a decrease in operating profits [6][7]. - The white liquor market is undergoing a deep adjustment phase due to policy changes, consumption structure transformation, and intense competition [6][7]. - The overall sales volume in the liquor industry is expected to decline by over 20% year-on-year, reflecting macroeconomic fluctuations and slow recovery in consumer spending [7][8]. Group 4: Fund Manager Strategies - The top five stocks with increased holdings include Zhongji Xuchuang, Industrial Fulian, ST Huatuo, Dongshan Precision, and Hanwha Technology, all of which are technology companies [9][10]. - Conversely, the top stocks with reduced holdings include Shenghong Technology and Haiguang Information, with significant sell-offs attributed to internal management's actions [11]. - Despite CATL being the top holding, it also appears on the list of reduced holdings, indicating a complex strategy among institutional investors [11].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.754 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 28.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.326 billion yuan, up 56.3% year-over-year [1] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.301 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 33.25% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.11%, with a net profit of 966 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 92.87% [1] - Q3 2025 saw a record high in revenue and profit, with a gross margin of 31.39%, indicating successful product structure upgrades [1] Group 2: Business Segments - In the PCB business, demand for high-speed switches and optical modules has significantly increased due to the rising computational power needs in the communication sector [2] - The data center sector is experiencing growth driven by increased capital expenditures from major cloud service providers, particularly in AI computing investments, benefiting the company's PCB business [2] - In the packaging substrate business, the company has seen a notable increase in orders for storage products due to successful mass production of new high-end DRAM products for key clients [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.471 billion yuan, 5.255 billion yuan, and 6.921 billion yuan respectively, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [3] - Based on the closing price on October 29, 2025, the projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 43.8, 28.9, and 21.9 times, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the high demand in the AI sector, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 34.71 billion, 52.55 billion, and 69.21 billion respectively [9] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 16.754 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 28.39%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.326 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.3% [4][5] - The company is expanding its production capacity with ongoing construction projects, which are expected to support future growth [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2023A: Revenue of 13,526 million, Net Profit of 1,398 million - 2024A: Revenue of 17,907 million, Net Profit of 1,878 million - 2025E: Revenue of 22,206 million, Net Profit of 3,471 million - 2026E: Revenue of 27,857 million, Net Profit of 5,255 million - 2027E: Revenue of 34,731 million, Net Profit of 6,921 million [2][11] - Growth Rates: - Revenue growth rates are projected at -3% for 2023, 32% for 2024, and 24% for 2025 [2] - Net profit growth rates are projected at -15% for 2023, 34% for 2024, and 85% for 2025 [2] Market Position and Industry Trends - The company is positioned as a leader in the PCB industry, benefiting from increased demand in the communication and data center sectors driven by AI infrastructure investments [7][8] - The company has successfully upgraded its product structure, achieving a gross margin of 31.39% in Q3 2025, indicating strong operational performance [5]

Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.301 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 33.25% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 966 million CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 92.87% [1] Gross Margin Improvement - The overall gross margin showed improvement in Q3 2025, driven by increased demand for storage packaging substrates and enhanced production capacity utilization [2] - The revenue from PCB data center and wired communication businesses continued to grow, contributing to a slight increase in gross margin [2] Business Expansion - The PCB business focuses on communication equipment, with key expansions in data centers (including servers) and automotive electronics [3] - The packaging substrate business saw a revenue increase in Q3 2025, with notable growth in storage packaging substrates [4] Capacity Utilization - The overall capacity utilization remained high in Q3 2025, with significant improvements in the packaging substrate business due to increased demand [6] Raw Material Price Changes - Key raw materials such as copper and gold salts experienced price increases in Q3 2025 due to fluctuations in commodity prices [7] R&D Investment - R&D investment in Q3 2025 amounted to approximately 464 million CNY, accounting for 7.37% of the company's revenue [8] New Projects - The company is developing new factories, including the Nantong Phase IV and Thailand projects, with the Thailand factory currently in trial production [5]