深南电路股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度报告 深南电路股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度报告 证券代码：002916 证券简称：深南电路 公告编号：2025-033 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1.董事会及董事、高级管理人员保证季度报告的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担 个别和连带的法律责任。 2.公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人(会计主管人员)声明：保证季度报告中财务信息的真实、准确、完 整。 3.第三季度财务会计报告是否经过审计 公司是否需追溯调整或重述以前年度会计数据 □是 否 | | 本报告期 | 本报告期比上年同期 | 年初至报告期末 | 年初至报告期末比上 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 增减 | | 年同期增减 | | 营业收入（元） | 6,300,560,583.88 | 33.25% | 16,754,015,317.37 | 28.39% | | 归属于上市公司股东 | 965,807,776.13 | 92.8 ...

Core Insights - The PCB industry is experiencing unprecedented growth opportunities driven by the surge in AI server demand and the unexpected recovery in traditional sectors [1][2] Demand Drivers - The resilience in PCB demand is attributed to a dual-driven model of emerging sectors' explosion and the recovery of traditional fields [2] - AI technology breakthroughs are pushing the industry into a "golden phase" of simultaneous volume and price increases [2] - AI server PCB demand is expected to significantly increase, with Nvidia's GB 200/300 NVL72 shipments projected to meet expectations by 2025, and Blackwell & Rubin series shipments potentially exceeding 50,000-60,000 units by 2026 [2][3] - The technical requirements for AI servers far exceed those of traditional servers, with high-layer count (HLC) and high-density interconnect (HDI) boards becoming core demands [2] Market Dynamics - UBS estimates that the single-unit PCB content for AI servers is 5-10 times higher than that of traditional servers, significantly driving the server PCB market [3] - The domestic AI chip and cluster solutions are accelerating the formation of a local AI server supply chain, benefiting companies like Shenzhen Circuits and Huitian Technology [3] - Traditional PCB demand is also recovering, contributing 70-80% of revenue from sectors like smartphones, PCs, and general servers [3] Sector-Specific Insights - The smartphone sector is benefiting from the unexpected shipment volume of the iPhone 17 series, with global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2025/26 raised to 1.26 billion and 1.27 billion units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3% and 1% respectively [3] - The PC market is seeing a recovery driven by the replacement cycle following the end of Windows 10 support, with global PC shipment growth expected to exceed 4% in 2025/26 [3] - General server demand is notably resilient, with global shipments projected to grow by 8.6% and 8.0% in 2025/26, and hyperscale data center shipments expected to grow by 17.8% and 9.8% [4] Industry Chain Analysis - The PCB industry chain shows a concentration of value in upstream segments, with substrates and copper-clad laminates (CCL) being the most certain segments benefiting from AI demand [5] - BT substrates are experiencing high utilization rates due to the recovery in storage chip demand and supply shortages of key materials [7] - The price of BT substrates has increased by 30% this year, with further increases expected by year-end [8] - The high-speed CCL segment is seeing explosive demand driven by AI server upgrades, with prices expected to rise by 10-15% in the second half of 2025 [9] Company Profiles - Shenzhen Circuits: Covers major North American clients [10] - Huitian Technology: Main PCB supplier for Google and optical modules [11] - Shenghong Technology: Strong position with Nvidia and aggressive capacity expansion [12] - Sany Electronics: Significant orders from AWS leading to strong Q3 performance [13] - Sany Technology: Strong earnings certainty due to CCL price increases [14] - Dazhu CNC: Q3 performance exceeded expectations, reflecting PCB segment dynamics [15] - Ding Tai High-Tech: Facing process challenges due to high difficulty in Q fabric [16] - Zhongcai Technology: Expected to benefit from sustained PCB demand in the coming year [17] Conclusion - The Chinese PCB industry is entering a new upward cycle driven by AI, with upstream segments like substrates and CCL, along with leading companies in the AI server supply chain, being the primary beneficiaries [18]

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for October, including companies such as China Southern Airlines (600029.SH) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750.SZ) [1] - The macroeconomic analysis emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period for China's reform and innovation, indicating that it is a critical time for achieving significant progress towards socialist modernization [5] - The fixed income section discusses the recent fluctuations in the bond market, noting that the central bank's actions to pause and then resume government bond trading reflect its intention to stabilize yields [6][7] - The report provides an overview of market indices, showing slight declines in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which closed at 3988.22, down 0.22% [3] - Industry performance data indicates that the comprehensive index rose by 2.06%, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and beauty care saw declines of 2.72% and 1.51%, respectively [4]

Core Insights - The AI computing sector has seen significant returns for heavily invested funds this year, leading to a divergence in investment strategies among fund managers [1][2] - Notable fund managers are adjusting their portfolios within the AI computing chain, with some reducing holdings in high-performing optical modules while increasing positions in PCB and AI application sectors [2][3] Fund Manager Adjustments - Fund managers like Jin Zicai from Caitong Fund have significantly increased their holdings in PCB-related companies such as Shenzhen South Circuit and Shengyi Technology, while reducing positions in leading optical module firms like NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang [2][4] - The China Europe Digital Economy Fund, managed by Feng Ludan, has made more substantial adjustments, reducing exposure to optical modules and PCB while increasing investments in AI application stocks like Alibaba and Tencent [3][4] Long-term Outlook on AI Infrastructure - Despite the adjustments, there remains a consensus among fund managers regarding the long-term potential of AI infrastructure, with expectations of increased demand for computing power in the coming years [4][5] - Jin Zicai emphasized that the growth certainty of overseas AI has improved, predicting faster growth in computing demand for 2026 and 2027 [4] Investment Risks and Valuation Concerns - While acknowledging the long-term value of the AI computing sector, fund managers have also highlighted the risks associated with high valuations following significant price increases [7] - Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of past performance as the AI sector's overall valuation is no longer at a low level, with some stocks reflecting overly optimistic growth expectations [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant adjustments made by various fund managers in their portfolios during the third quarter, particularly focusing on sectors like PCB and AI computing [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager Adjustments - Notable fund managers such as Fu Pengbo and Xie Zhiyu increased their stakes in PCB leader Dongshan Precision, while Mo Haibo reduced his holdings in optical modules and shifted focus to the robotics industry [1][2]. - The top ten shareholders of Dongshan Precision now include prominent fund managers, indicating a strong interest in this stock [2]. - The "champion fund" Yongying Technology Smart Selection has seen a year-to-date return exceeding 200%, with significant increases in holdings of key stocks in the PCB and optical module sectors [3][6]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Performance - The article emphasizes the growing preference for AI computing and related sectors among fund managers, with Yongying Technology Smart Selection heavily investing in this area since the second quarter [3][4]. - Mo Haibo's fund continues to favor AI and coal sectors, highlighting the potential for substantial growth in domestic computing capabilities [9]. - The performance of funds focused on AI computing has attracted considerable net subscription funds, reflecting investor confidence in this sector [9][10]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Fund managers express confidence in the A-share market, citing favorable domestic fiscal and monetary policies, which may lead to increased asset allocation towards equities [8]. - The article notes that despite external uncertainties, the market may continue to trend upwards, supported by a release of trading sentiment and pressure in certain sectors [8]. - The long-term growth potential of the cloud computing industry is acknowledged, with caution advised against assuming past performance will predict future results [10].

Core Viewpoint - The PCB industry is experiencing unprecedented growth opportunities driven by the surge in AI server demand and the unexpected recovery in traditional sectors, marking the beginning of a new growth cycle for the industry [1][2]. Demand Drivers - The resilience in PCB demand is attributed to a dual-driven pattern of "emerging sectors' explosion + traditional sectors' recovery" [2]. - The demand for PCBs in AI servers has transitioned from a conceptual phase to actual performance, significantly increasing the industry's growth potential [3]. - AI servers require higher PCB content, with UBS estimating that the single-unit PCB content for AI servers is 5-10 times higher than traditional servers, leading to a rapid expansion of the server PCB market [4]. Traditional Sector Recovery - Traditional PCB demand is also recovering, contributing 70-80% of revenue for PCB companies, providing a solid foundation for the industry [5]. - The smartphone sector is benefiting from the unexpected shipment volumes of the iPhone 17 series, with global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2025/26 adjusted to 1.26 billion and 1.27 billion units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3% and 1% respectively [5]. - The PC market is seeing a resurgence due to the replacement cycle following the end of Windows 10 support, with global PC shipment growth expected to exceed 4% in 2025/26 [5]. PCB Industry Chain Analysis - The PCB industry chain exhibits a concentrated value distribution, with substrates and copper-clad laminates (CCL) being the core raw materials benefiting from the AI demand explosion [7]. - BT substrates are experiencing high utilization rates due to the recovery in storage chip demand and supply shortages of key materials [8]. - The ABF substrate market is undergoing a domestic production acceleration, with potential for Chinese PCB companies to capture market share through cost advantages and localized services [9]. CCL Market Dynamics - The CCL market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance in high-end products, with high-speed CCL being the most explosive segment due to AI server upgrades [10]. - UBS forecasts a 10-15% increase in high-speed CCL average selling prices (ASP) by the second half of 2025, with tight supply conditions expected to persist into 2026 [11]. Company Performance - Companies like Huadian and Shennan Circuits are well-positioned with full coverage of North American clients and strong relationships with major AI customers [12][13]. - Shenghong Technology is expanding aggressively and maintaining strong customer acquisition trends, while companies like Sinyi Electronics are benefiting from increased orders from AWS [13][14]. - The PCB sector's valuation reflects the industry's upward cycle expectations, with the PCB index rising 70% year-to-date, and a projected net profit CAGR of 42% from 2024 to 2027, indicating reasonable current valuations [17]. Conclusion - The Chinese PCB industry is entering a new upward cycle driven by AI, with upstream segments like substrates and CCL, along with leading companies in the AI server supply chain, being the primary beneficiaries [17].

2026年下半年落地，背板（Backplane）设计也计划于2027年下半年应用于Rubin Ultra， 这两项创新将显著提升单机PCB价值量。 据UBS（瑞银）测算，AI服务器PCB的单机含量较传统服务器提升5-10倍，远超4G向5G升 级时2-3倍的增幅，直接推动服务器PCB市场规模进入"快车道"。 同时，AI产业链的国产化进程也为中国PCB企业带来增量机遇。随着国内企业推出自主AI芯片 与集群方案，本土AI服务器供应链加速成型，深南电路、沪电股份等具备高端PCB生产能力的 企业，已进入国内头部AI客户的供应商体系，未来订单确定性较强。 在全球AI科技产业加速迭代的浪潮中，PCB（印制电路板）作为"电子工业之母"，正迎来前所 未有的发展机遇。AI服务器需求的持续爆发与传统领域需求的超预期复苏，共同推动板块进入 新一轮增长周期。 需求端双轮驱动 01 PCB行业的需求韧性，源于"新兴赛道爆发+传统领域回暖"的双轮驱动格局。从行业发展规律 来看，每一次核心技术变革都会重构PCB的需求结构，而当前AI技术的突破，正推动行业进 入"量价齐升"的黄金阶段。 AI服务器对PCB的需求已经从"概念"到"实绩"，打开行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies mentioned, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shortage of upstream materials affecting high-end substrates, with expectations that the supply issues will persist for about a year [1]. - The demand for high-end substrates is projected to grow alongside the increasing need for computing power driven by AI developments, creating a favorable investment landscape [3]. - Companies like Xingsen Technology are focusing on enhancing their IC packaging substrate business, achieving a revenue increase of 36.04% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Upstream Material Shortage - The shortage of materials such as T-Glass and quartz fabric is expected to impact high-end substrate shipments, with a peak shortage anticipated in the next six months [1]. - The chairman of Xinxing noted that the supply gap for high-end copper-clad laminates (CCL) is challenging, but improvements are expected starting from Q3 2026 [1]. Company Performance - Xingsen Technology's IC packaging substrate business generated revenue of 722 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a focus on high-value products and expansion into the automotive market [2]. - The company is also seeing a significant increase in sample orders for FCBGA substrates, indicating potential for mass production opportunities [2]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests continued attention to investment opportunities in companies such as Xingsen Technology, Shennan Circuit, Shengyi Technology, and Nanya New Materials due to the expected growth in high-end substrate demand and domestic substitution potential [3].

Core Insights - The top-performing funds in the third quarter are focused on technology sectors such as overseas computing power and semiconductors, with notable funds being Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry A, Hengyue Advantage Selection, and Caitong Multi-Strategy Fuxin [1] Fund Performance - Caitong Multi-Strategy Fuxin achieved a net asset value growth rate of 91.24% during the reporting period, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 9.26% [1] - Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry A recorded a quarterly net value growth rate of 86.49%, making it the top performer among ordinary stock funds [3] Fund Management Strategies - Fund manager Jin Zicai has shown strong confidence in the computing power sector, significantly increasing allocations to stocks such as Shengyi Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, Shengyi Electronics, and Shenzhen South Circuit [1][3] - The fund's top holdings at the end of the third quarter included Industrial Fulian, Shengyi Technology, Shengyi Electronics, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Shenzhen South Circuit, with each holding over 9% of the fund's net value [4][5] Market Outlook - Jin Zicai anticipates a higher certainty of growth in overseas AI, with an expected acceleration in demand for computing power in 2026 and 2027 [2][6] - The manager believes that the market has undervalued the fundamentals of the optical communication sector, leading to a significant overweight in this area [3] Other Fund Insights - Hengyue Advantage Selection, managed by Wu Haining, achieved a net asset value growth rate of 100.06%, indicating strong performance in the mixed equity fund category [7] - The fund has increased its exposure to the storage sector, driven by rising demand for data storage due to AI applications, particularly in video generation [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant performance of "doubling funds" in the market, particularly those heavily invested in the AI-related sectors such as optical communication, PCB, and semiconductors, which have seen substantial stock price increases in the third quarter [2][4]. - As of October 24, over 30 funds have achieved doubling returns this year, with the top-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, reporting a total return of 206.10% and a management scale increase from 11.66 billion to 115.21 billion [4]. - The top holdings of Yongying Technology Smart Selection A include stocks like Xinyi Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication, all of which recorded significant gains, contributing to the fund's high performance [4][6]. Group 2 - Another notable fund, China Europe Digital Economy A, achieved a year-to-date return of 138.72%, with its scale growing from 15.27 billion to 130.21 billion, indicating strong capital inflow [5]. - The top holdings of China Europe Digital Economy A include Xinyi Technology, Alibaba-W, and Zhongji Xuchuang, with many of these stocks also showing over 50% gains in the third quarter [5]. - The concentration of certain core stocks across multiple "doubling funds" indicates a strong market consensus and capital concentration in high-growth sectors [5]. Group 3 - The third quarter saw a continuation of strong performance in high-growth stocks, with Xinyi Technology rising by 187.96%, Tianfu Communication by 110.76%, and Huadian Shares by 72.55%, which were key drivers for the "doubling funds" [6]. - The acceleration of the AI industry has become a dominant theme, with major tech companies rapidly advancing their commercialization processes and investing heavily in data centers and computing power [8]. - The investment landscape for computing power is evolving, with predictions for significant developments in the industry by 2026, particularly in optical communication and PCB sectors, expected to see new technology convergence by 2027 [9].