编 辑丨巫燕玲 5月1 5日，A股震荡回调，但银行板块整体表现仍相对强势， 农业银行、浦发银行等多只银行 股创历史新高。银行板块总市值突破1 0万亿元大关，再创历史新高 。 市场有观点认为，这背后或与公募和险资抢筹银行股有关。 其逻辑之一是部分银行股息率高企，引发险资抢筹配置需求。 另外一部分逻辑，则与5月7日发布的《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》（下称《行动方 案》）有关。有市场人士称，在《行动方案》中，基金经理薪酬与业绩挂钩。主动权益基金 通 常 会 选 取 沪 深 3 0 0 等 代 表 性 宽 基 指 数 作 为 业 绩 基 准 ， 而 沪 深 3 0 0 指 数 中 银 行 板 块 权 重 高 达 1 3 . 6 7%。因此，为了不让净值与业绩比较基准偏离太多，基金在加速回补低配的银行股，才 导致了金融板块的抢货潮。 银行股创新高 截自5月1 5日，申万一级银行指数今年以来上涨8 . 0 2%，重庆银行、渝农商行、青岛银行、上 海银行、齐鲁银行等更是暴涨逾2 0%。 作 者丨庞华玮 工商银行、建设银行、农业银行、中国银行等四大行，以及浦发银行、光大银行、上海银行 等股份制银行和城商行也均在近期创出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in bank stocks has made them a prominent feature in the A-share market, driven by high dividends, low valuations, and their safe-haven characteristics amid uncertainty [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Securities Bank Index reached a high of 7751.80 points on May 15, 2023, following a nearly 7% increase over the previous six trading days [2]. - The total market capitalization of A-share banks surpassed 10 trillion yuan, increasing by 600 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [3]. - Year-to-date, the bank sector has risen over 8%, ranking fifth among all primary industries, with several banks experiencing gains exceeding 20% [5]. Group 2: Investment Drivers - Recent policy changes, including interest rate cuts and the expansion of financial asset investment companies, have contributed to the positive sentiment towards bank stocks [6][7]. - The new public fund assessment mechanism is expected to increase the allocation of funds to bank stocks, as active equity funds are likely to reduce their deviation from benchmark indices [8]. Group 3: Institutional Buying - Insurance funds have been actively increasing their holdings in bank stocks, with significant purchases noted in several banks this year [9]. - High dividend yields remain a key attraction for insurance investors, with many bank stocks offering yields above 4% [9]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of bank stock performance, as factors such as narrowing interest margins and asset quality issues in retail lending pose risks [11][12]. - The overall non-performing loan ratio is rising, particularly in personal loans, indicating potential stress in the banking sector [12].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the banking industry in Q1 2025 is mixed, with some banks showing strong growth while others face significant challenges, particularly in revenue and profit generation [1][13]. Summary by Category City Commercial Banks - Jiangsu Bank leads in operating income with 22.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.21%, and a net profit of 9.78 billion yuan, up 8.16% [1][3]. - Qingdao Bank shows a remarkable revenue growth of 9.69% and a net profit increase of 16.42%, indicating strong market performance [1][3]. - Xiamen Bank struggles with only 1.214 billion yuan in revenue, down 18.42%, and a net profit of 645 million yuan, down 14.21%, reflecting significant operational pressure [1][3][9]. Rural Commercial Banks - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank reports the highest operating income at 7.224 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.745 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.25% [1][3]. - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank faces challenges with a revenue decline of 7.41% and a net profit growth of only 0.34%, indicating insufficient growth momentum [1][3][10]. Strategic Developments - Jiangsu Bank's strategic focus on optimizing asset allocation and enhancing retail and non-interest income has contributed to its strong performance [4][5]. - Qingdao Bank emphasizes a refined strategy targeting three major customer groups and six key industries, enhancing its product offerings and revenue generation [5][6]. Challenges Faced - Xiamen Bank's revenue decline is attributed to a significant drop in core income sources, particularly in commission and fee-related businesses, alongside a decrease in investment income [9][10]. - The overall banking sector faces pressure from narrowing net interest margins and a decline in non-interest income due to market volatility and high base effects from 2024 [13][14].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Qingdao Bank's net interest margin (annualized) was 1.77%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points compared to 2024, remaining stable year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total customer loans amounted to 3,591.18 billion yuan, an increase of 184.28 billion yuan, representing a growth of 5.41% compared to the end of the previous year [3] Group 2: Strategic Measures - The bank implemented a high-quality development strategy, focusing on optimizing resource allocation and enhancing the assessment of interest rate spreads [2] - Efforts were made to optimize the asset structure, increasing the proportion of high-yield assets and boosting loan issuance to support local economic development [2] - On the liability side, the bank aimed to reduce costs by optimizing the structure of major liabilities and lowering deposit costs through various strategies [3] Group 3: Future Lending Direction - In 2025, Qingdao Bank plans to continue optimizing its asset-liability structure and steadily expand its loan issuance to support the real economy [3] - The bank will align its corporate lending with national macro-control policies and focus on key industries and major projects, targeting eight major sectors including technology finance and green finance [3] - Retail lending will focus on meeting personal customer needs, enhancing the structure of housing loans, consumer loans, and business loans to achieve balanced development [3]

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 张亢 郭健 5月13日晚，2025泰安市文旅产业高质量发展大会在"中国桃都"肥城市梦幻桃花源不夜城盛大开幕。来 自全省文旅系统、企业界、学术界的嘉宾齐聚一堂，共商文旅融合发展大计。大会通过项目观摩、开幕 仪式、工作会议等环节，集中展现泰安文旅产业"二次创业"新成效，吹响全域旅游高质量发展冲锋号。 开幕式上，泰安市委书记杨洪涛宣布大会开幕。 当晚，参会嘉宾还体验了沉浸式演出《桃缘奇遇记》试映，该演出以肥城桃文化为核心，融合全息投 影、VR技术，打造"街区+剧场+夜游"4.0版文旅综合体，成为继东平大宋不夜城之后的又一夜间经济亮 点。 泰安市委副书记、市长李兰祥在致辞中指出，泰安依托泰山文化传承创新示范区建设，2024年接待国内 游客9429.4万人次，旅游收入902.7亿元，分别增长12.3%、13.8%，"泰山+"旅游产业集群入选全省首批 支柱型雁阵集群。今年以来，全市旅游市场持续火爆，一季度接待游客2016.21万人次，实现旅游收入 190.13亿元，同比分别增长9.47%、10.63%。 "我们将以最周到的服务、最完善的保障，为来泰企业营造更为广阔的发展空间。"李兰祥在致辞中表 示，泰 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank stocks have shown resilience and have risen against the market trend, with the China Securities Bank Index reaching a new high since February 2018, driven by multiple favorable policies and market conditions [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On May 13, the China Securities Bank Index rose by 1.53% to close at 7629.55 points, marking a new high since February 2018, with many individual stocks hitting historical highs [1][2]. - Over the last five trading days, the bank sector has increased by 5.76%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.77% [2]. - Notable individual stock performances include Chongqing Bank and Shanghai Bank, both rising over 3%, with Chongqing Bank leading with a 10.9% increase [2]. Policy Impact - Recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are expected to have a neutral impact on banks' net interest margins, with adjustments on the liability side helping to mitigate pressures [1][6][7]. - The establishment of Financial Asset Investment Companies (AIC) is seen as a significant opportunity for banks to enhance their comprehensive benefits and support technology enterprises [3][4][5]. Earnings and Profitability - Despite the pressure on profitability, bank stocks remain attractive due to their stability and dividend yields, especially as regulatory measures encourage long-term capital inflows [3][4]. - The average net interest margin for listed banks is projected to be 1.52% by the end of 2024, continuing a five-year decline, with a notable decrease in interest income reported for the previous year [6][8]. Strategic Adjustments - Banks are adapting to the low-interest-rate environment by diversifying their income sources and optimizing their operational structures to maintain profitability [8][9]. - The focus on non-interest income generation is becoming increasingly critical for banks to navigate the challenges posed by a shrinking net interest margin [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Recent monetary policy adjustments, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, are expected to stabilize market expectations and provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2][3] - The establishment of financial asset investment companies by three joint-stock banks aims to enhance their ability to serve the real economy, although it may put pressure on their capital and asset quality [4][5] - The banking sector is viewed positively, with a focus on high dividend investment opportunities, particularly in undervalued banks such as China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [1] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of policies to support market stability, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates [2][3] - Specific measures include reducing the LPR by approximately 0.1 percentage points and adjusting various structural monetary policy tool rates [2] Financial Asset Investment Companies - Three joint-stock banks are in the process of establishing financial asset investment companies to enhance their service capabilities for the real economy [4] - This move is seen as a response to the slowing credit growth among joint-stock banks and aims to optimize corporate capital structures [5] Market Performance - The banking sector index increased by 1.88% this week, while the overall A-share index rose by 2.74%, indicating a slight underperformance of the banking sector [12] - Among different types of banks, joint-stock banks showed a notable increase of 3.79%, while state-owned banks experienced a decline of 0.89% [12][19] Individual Bank Performance - All A-share banks saw an increase in stock prices, with joint-stock banks leading the gains, particularly Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and China Merchants Bank [19][21] - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for state-owned banks is 0.67X, while joint-stock banks have a lower average P/B of 0.54X [21] Bond Market and Financing - The bond market saw a total financing of 1.749 trillion yuan this week, with net financing increasing significantly compared to the previous week [44] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 857.9 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase in issuance volume [59]

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that the net interest margin (NIM) of listed banks will continue to narrow in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a consensus in the industry regarding the decline in asset-side yields. However, improvements in liability-side costs are expected to support a gradual stabilization of the NIM decline, with an overall better performance anticipated in 2025 compared to 2024 [1][4]. Asset Side Analysis - The yield on interest-earning assets for 42 listed banks in 2024 is projected to be 3.37%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 28 basis points. Specifically, the loan yield is expected to be 3.72% (down 40 basis points), while investment asset yields are at 3.10% (down 18 basis points) [2]. - The structure of interest-earning assets shows that investment assets account for 34.34% of total interest-earning assets (up 0.65 percentage points), while loans make up 55.55% (up 0.02 percentage points). The increase in the proportion of investment and loan assets has a limited positive effect on overall NIM [2]. Liability Side Analysis - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities for the same group of banks is expected to be 1.98% in 2024, down 12 basis points year-on-year. The deposit cost is projected at 1.80% (down 15 basis points) [3]. - The structure of interest-bearing liabilities indicates that deposits account for 72.49% (up 0.24 percentage points), with a continuing trend towards the regularization of deposits. The proportion of interbank liabilities is 11.58% (down 0.35 percentage points) [3]. Future Outlook - For the full year of 2025, the NIM decline is expected to stabilize gradually, with an overall performance better than in 2024. The report highlights that the pressure from the three LPR cuts in 2024 will be concentrated in Q1 2025, alongside a batch reduction in existing mortgage rates [4]. - The current monetary and fiscal policies are expected to work in tandem, with the central bank's recent announcements indicating a clear intention to support NIM through measures such as rate cuts and self-discipline mechanisms for deposit rates [4]. Investment Recommendations - GF Securities recommends focusing on return on equity (ROE) as a benchmark for expected returns in the banking sector, with specific emphasis on regional economic alpha and low investment income ratios as sources of sustained excess returns. The banks highlighted for investment include China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Qingdao Bank [1].

Group 1: Investor Relations Activities - The investor relations activity was held on May 12, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:00 via an online platform [2] - Participants included the board secretary Ms. Zhang Qiaowen and the general manager of the planning and finance department Mr. Li Zhenguo [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - The bank has maintained an average cash dividend payout ratio of over 33% over the past five years, exceeding the industry average [2] - The total cash dividend amount has consistently been 931 million CNY over the last four years, marking the highest annual dividend in the bank's history [2] - The company’s articles of association stipulate that at least 20% of the distributable profit should be allocated to common shareholders annually [2] Group 3: Capital Adequacy and Financial Strategy - As of the end of Q1 2025, the bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 8.96% [3] - The bank has focused on capital-intensive and refined management to improve capital efficiency and achieve better net profit growth [3] - There is still room for improvement in the bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy level, necessitating continued support for the real economy [3] - The bank aims to establish a stable, timely, and sustainable investment return mechanism while rationally planning the frequency and proportion of cash dividends [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the implementation of a loose monetary policy, coupled with fiscal reforms and potential further reductions in insurance premium rates, is expected to lead to excess returns for banks [1][2][9] - The current phase of intensive policy implementation for stable growth is anticipated to have a profound impact on the banking sector's fundamentals in 2025, with increased fiscal policy support expected to boost social financing and credit, benefiting cyclical stocks [2][9] - The report identifies two main investment themes: the effectiveness of low-volatility dividend strategies in a declining interest rate environment and the potential for public funds to increase their allocation to banks due to recent reforms [2][9][23] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent reforms in public funds emphasize the importance of performance benchmarks, which may drive increased allocation to previously underweighted stocks, particularly in the banking sector [23][26] - It is indicated that insurance premium rates may be further reduced in the third quarter of 2025, which could enhance the tolerance for dividend yields among insurance funds, thereby supporting absolute returns for banks [9][10] - The report suggests that banks are currently underrepresented in public fund portfolios, with significant potential for increased capital inflow, particularly for major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Merchants Bank [10][26]