Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a "strong deposit, weak loan" characteristic in the opening month of the year [4] - In January 2026, new social financing increased by 7.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 166.2 billion yuan, with a balance growth of 8.2% [4][5] - New RMB loans in January 2026 amounted to 4.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion yuan, with a balance growth of 6.1% [4][5] - The report indicates that consumer demand has shown some recovery, particularly in short-term loans, but overall consumer credit demand may remain pessimistic throughout the year [1][2] Summary by Sections Credit Overview - Entity credit remained stable, with a significant reduction in bill financing [1] - Retail loans added 456.5 billion yuan in January, a year-on-year increase of 12.7 billion yuan [1] - Corporate loans added 4.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in bill financing [2] Social Financing - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with new issuance of 976.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 283.1 billion yuan [5] - The report notes a trend of "deposit migration," with non-bank deposits reaching 36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.7% of total deposits [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a "New Momentum Portfolio" including banks such as Nanjing Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, highlighting their potential for value recovery [3][5] - It emphasizes the importance of high-dividend bank stocks as having allocation value amid steady declines in credit growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has shown significant performance in 2025, with a total market capitalization surpassing 10 trillion yuan, indicating a structural bull market despite a mixed performance among individual stocks [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 13, the total market capitalization of the banking sector reached approximately 13.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.45 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year [2][6]. - The A-share market capitalization grew by over 20 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, reaching nearly 114 trillion yuan [6]. - The banking sector's market capitalization as a proportion of the total A-share market decreased from 11.19% at the end of the previous year to around 9% [6]. Group 2: Stock Performance - In 2025, 32 banking stocks recorded gains, with Qingdao Bank, Xiamen Bank, and Agricultural Bank leading with increases of over 30% [2][3]. - The banking sector's overall performance was relatively weak, with a decline of 0.3% for the year, making it one of the lowest-performing sectors among 31 major industries [3][4]. - Notable individual stock performances included Qingdao Bank with a 39.37% increase, Xiamen Bank at 38.36%, and Agricultural Bank at 30.86% since February 5 [3][5]. Group 3: Structural Trends - The banking sector experienced a clear differentiation in performance, with large state-owned banks initially performing well, while smaller banks gained momentum later in the year [4][6]. - Despite the overall positive trend, 10 banking stocks ended the year in the red, with Everbright Bank showing the largest decline at 10.7% [4][5]. - The competition for market capitalization among major banks saw Agricultural Bank briefly surpass Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, although the latter regained its position as the market leader by year-end [6][7].

Core Insights - The A-share banking sector has seen a significant market capitalization increase, surpassing 10 trillion yuan for the first time, indicating a structural bull market despite a mixed performance among individual stocks [1][6][7] - The total market capitalization of the banking sector reached approximately 13.72 trillion yuan, growing by 1.45 trillion yuan from the previous year, while the overall A-share market capitalization increased by 0.93 trillion yuan to about 10.27 trillion yuan [1][6] - The year 2025 has shown a clear divergence in stock performance, with 32 out of 42 banking stocks gaining, while some, like Everbright Bank and Beijing Bank, experienced declines exceeding 10% [1][3] Market Performance - The banking sector's performance was characterized by a "structural bull market," with significant gains in high-dividend, low-valuation stocks acting as a safe haven [1][2] - The top three performing stocks were Qingdao Bank, Xiamen Bank, and Agricultural Bank, each with gains exceeding 30%, while the worst performers included Everbright Bank, Beijing Bank, and Huaxia Bank, with declines over 10% [1][3] - The overall banking index saw a slight decline of 0.3% for the year, contrasting with a 25.58% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [2][3] Individual Stock Analysis - Notable individual stock performances included Qingdao Bank with a 39.37% increase, Xiamen Bank at 38.36%, and Agricultural Bank at 30.86% since February 5, 2025 [3][5] - The performance of state-owned banks showed mixed results, with four banks ending the year positively, while others like Postal Savings Bank and Bank of Communications saw declines [4][6] - The market capitalization of Agricultural Bank surpassed that of Industrial and Commercial Bank at one point, highlighting a competitive shift in the sector [7] Market Dynamics - The banking sector's market share within the A-share market decreased from 11.19% at the end of the previous year to around 9% [6][7] - The competition for the title of "market capitalization king" saw Agricultural Bank briefly take the lead before Industrial and Commercial Bank regained its position [7] - Future performance will be influenced by factors such as market rotation, earnings reports, and monetary policy adjustments, with expectations of continued divergence among individual bank stocks [7]

2月13日金融一线消息，国家金融监督管理总局青岛监管局发布关于青岛银行发行资本工具的批复，同 意青岛银行发行不超过60亿元人民币的资本工具。 责任编辑：王馨茹 2月13日金融一线消息，国家金融监督管理总局青岛监管局发布关于青岛银行发行资本工具的批复，同 意青岛银行发行不超过60亿元人民币的资本工具。 责任编辑：王馨茹 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report analyzes 132 regional banks in the Sichuan-Chongqing area, highlighting the growth and structural changes in the banking sector [6][27] - The asset growth rates of major city commercial banks in the region are higher than those of listed city commercial banks, indicating a robust expansion [38] - Profitability metrics show that city commercial banks in the region have lower ROE compared to listed banks, while rural commercial banks outperform them [6][27] - Asset quality is slightly weaker in regional banks compared to listed banks, with higher non-performing loan ratios [6][27] Summary by Sections Economic Structure Analysis - Sichuan province is positioned as a key driver for western development, with a focus on enhancing the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [13][14] - In 2025, Chengdu's GDP is projected to account for 38.7% of the province's total, with significant growth in various sectors [15] Banking Sector Overview - The Sichuan-Chongqing region has 132 commercial banks, including 14 city commercial banks, 65 rural banks, and 51 rural commercial banks [27] - The asset growth rates for major city commercial banks in the region are 15.6% and 18.2%, surpassing the 14.2% growth of listed city commercial banks [38] Asset and Liability Structure - The proportion of loans to total assets has been increasing since 2016, with city commercial banks in Sichuan projected to have a loan ratio of 56.1% by 2024 [38][40] - The financial investment ratio for city commercial banks is on a downward trend, with a slight recovery noted in the first half of 2025 [40][46] Profitability and Asset Quality - The average ROE for city commercial banks in the region is 10.97%, lower than the 11.99% average for listed city commercial banks [6][27] - Non-performing loan ratios for city commercial banks in the region are higher than those of listed banks, indicating potential asset quality concerns [6][27] Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy ratios for regional banks are comparable to those of listed banks, providing a safety margin for operations [6][27]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for banks experienced a collective decline, with several banks showing significant drops in their stock prices on February 12 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Chongqing Bank saw a decline of 2.27%, with a total market value of 36 billion [2] - Agricultural Bank dropped by 1.62%, with a market capitalization of 2,337.9 billion [2] - CITIC Bank decreased by 1.57%, with a market value of 417.9 billion [2] - Xiamen Bank fell by 1.57%, with a market capitalization of 19.9 billion [2] - Qingnong Commercial Bank declined by 1.55%, with a market value of 17.6 billion [2] - Qingdao Bank decreased by 1.41%, with a market capitalization of 32.6 billion [2] - Qilu Bank fell by 1.18%, with a market value of 36.2 billion [2] - Xi'an Bank dropped by 1.30%, with a market capitalization of 16.9 billion [2] - China Construction Bank decreased by 1.23%, with a market value of 23,152 billion [2] - Everbright Bank fell by 1.19%, with a market capitalization of 195.6 billion [2] - Pudong Development Bank decreased by 1.18%, with a market value of 334.7 billion [2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank dropped by 1.10%, with a market capitalization of 25,697 billion [2] - Jiangyin Bank fell by 1.06%, with a market value of 11.5 billion [2] - Zijin Bank decreased by 1.05%, with a market capitalization of 10.3 billion [2] - Zhangjiagang Bank fell by 1.05%, with a market value of 11.5 billion [2] - China Merchants Bank decreased by 1.04%, with a market capitalization of 983.3 billion [2] Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - Chongqing Bank has a year-to-date decline of 2.91% [2] - Agricultural Bank has seen a year-to-date drop of 13.02% [2] - CITIC Bank's year-to-date decline is 2.47% [2] - Xiamen Bank has a year-to-date increase of 2.59% [2] - Qingnong Commercial Bank's year-to-date increase is 2.26% [2] - Qingdao Bank has a significant year-to-date increase of 25.00% [2] - Qilu Bank has a year-to-date increase of 4.53% [2] - Xi'an Bank's year-to-date increase is 2.70% [2] - China Construction Bank has a year-to-date decline of 4.63% [2] - Everbright Bank's year-to-date decline is 2.26% [2] - Pudong Development Bank has a significant year-to-date decline of 19.21% [2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank has a year-to-date decline of 9.08% [2] - Jiangyin Bank has a year-to-date increase of 2.19% [2] - Zijin Bank's year-to-date increase is 4.03% [2] - Zhangjiagang Bank has a year-to-date increase of 3.06% [2] - China Merchants Bank has a year-to-date decline of 4.99% [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline in bank stocks, with Chongqing Bank dropping over 2% and several other banks, including Agricultural Bank, CITIC Bank, and Xiamen Bank, falling more than 1% [1] - Chongqing Bank's stock decreased by 2.27%, with a total market capitalization of 36 billion and a year-to-date decline of 2.91% [2] - Agricultural Bank's stock fell by 1.62%, with a market cap of 2,337.9 billion and a year-to-date decline of 13.02% [2] Group 2 - CITIC Bank's stock decreased by 1.57%, with a market capitalization of 417.9 billion and a year-to-date decline of 2.47% [2] - Xiamen Bank's stock also fell by 1.57%, with a market cap of 19.9 billion and a year-to-date increase of 2.59% [2] - Qingnong Commercial Bank's stock dropped by 1.55%, with a market cap of 17.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 2.26% [2] Group 3 - Other banks such as Qilu Bank, Xi'an Bank, and China Construction Bank experienced declines of 1.18% to 1.30%, with respective market caps of 36.2 billion, 16.9 billion, and 23,152 billion [2] - The stock of Industrial and Commercial Bank fell by 1.10%, with a market cap of 25,697 billion and a year-to-date decline of 9.08% [2] - China Merchants Bank's stock decreased by 1.04%, with a market cap of 98.33 billion and a year-to-date decline of 4.99% [2]

Core Insights - The "Top Ten Opinion Leaders of 2025" list has been announced, highlighting influential figures in the context of China's economic transformation and recovery [1][2] - The evaluation criteria for the selection included professionalism, influence, innovation, foresight, and activity level, with results based on a voting process and data analysis [2] Group 1: Opinion Leaders - Liu Xiaoshu, Chief Economist of Qingdao Bank, has been awarded the title of "Top Ten Opinion Leaders of 2025" [3] - Liu Xiaoshu's key viewpoints include a positive outlook on the Chinese capital market through the lens of dual-cycle resonance [3] - He emphasizes that short-term aggregates do not equate to long-term outcomes, advocating for a rational approach to economic stimulus [3] Group 2: Economic Perspectives - Liu Xiaoshu discusses asset allocation strategies, questioning whether to invest in gold or U.S. stocks [3] - He presents a rebalancing perspective on the Chinese economy, indicating a nuanced understanding of economic dynamics [3]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector experienced a volatile afternoon with notable gains, particularly for several banks including Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Zijin Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Agricultural Bank, which all saw increases in their stock prices [1] Group 1 - Qingdao Bank rose nearly 2% [1] - Qilu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Zijin Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Agricultural Bank all increased by over 1% [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a general rise in bank stocks, with notable increases in Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Zijin Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, all rising over 1% [1]