Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The banking industry has shown a recovery in profit growth, with net profit for commercial banks increasing by 2.33% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2.35 percentage points [13][14] - The overall asset growth of commercial banks continued, with total assets increasing by 9.01% year-on-year as of Q4 2025, while loan growth slightly decreased to 7.26% year-on-year [29][30] - Net interest margin stabilized for two consecutive quarters at 1.42%, with expectations for a gradual recovery in 2026 [54] Summary by Sections Performance - The net profit of commercial banks increased by 2.33% year-on-year in 2025, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing growth rates of 2.25%, -2.84%, 12.87%, and 4.57% respectively [13][14] - The return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) for commercial banks were 7.78% and 0.60%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.33 percentage points and 0.03 percentage points respectively [13] Scale - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 9.01% year-on-year as of Q4 2025, with state-owned banks showing a growth rate of 10.78% [29][30] - Loan growth for commercial banks was 7.26% year-on-year, with city commercial banks experiencing a counter-cyclical increase in loan growth [29][30] Interest Margin - The net interest margin for commercial banks was stable at 1.42%, with a year-on-year decline of 10.50 basis points [54] - Expectations for 2026 indicate potential downward pressure on net interest margins in Q1, but a gradual recovery is anticipated thereafter [54] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks was 1.50%, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.00 basis points, while the provision coverage ratio was 205.21% [54] Capital - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks was 10.92%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.05 percentage points [54]

股 票 研 究 大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 202601 信贷收支表 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 1 月信贷收支表：负债端，春节错位对存款增长节奏形成扰动，个人定期储蓄存款延 续由中小银行向大型银行迁移的特征；资产端，信贷增速继续放缓，短期贷款显著 增加，其中大型银行更为明显。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 负债端：春节错位对存款形成扰动 资产端：大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 1） 贷款：同比少增 4893 亿元，其中大型银行、中小银行分别同比 少增 2130 亿元、少增 2763 亿元，中小银行受信贷需求平淡、 揽储压力增加等因素影响，信贷增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

银行股马年首个交易日跌多涨少 2月24日，A股市场实现开门红，截至收盘，沪指涨0.87%报4117.41点，深证成指涨1.36%，创业板指涨 0.99%。当天，沪深两市合计成交约2.2万亿元，较上一个交易日放量近2200亿元。 调研热情不及往年。 马年第一个交易日A股迎来开门红，银行股在市场火热情绪中继续被"冷落"，成为当天为数不多的飘绿 板块之一。 从消息面来看，当天最新LPR（贷款市场报价利率）出炉，1年期及5年期两个期限品种均连续9个月"按 兵不动"。央行节前披露的金融数据显示，尽管社融实现"开门红"，但信贷投放在1月罕见出现同比少 增。在此背景下，市场一方面更多关注信贷质量，另一方面也更加关注春节后开工节奏。 从机构对银行的调研情况来看，相较于往年同期，今年以来调研热情也有所回落，分化依然明显。第一 财经梳理发现，机构调研过程中的关注点主要集中在信贷投放尤其对公信贷景气度、息差压力下的负债 量价趋势和中收拓展能力，以及盈利压力下的资本补充计划等。 从板块表现来看，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4000只个股上涨、百余只个股涨停。截至收盘，31个申 万一级行业中，仅传媒、计算机、商贸零售等7个板块飘绿。其中 ...

当下投资银行股的机会成本仍然不高。数据显示，目前10年期国债收益率1.80%，仍处在历 史地位；银行股股息接近4.4%，较10年期国债收益率有2.6个百分点的溢价 商业银行的净利润正在较大范围地回暖，这体现在近期公布的10余家银行业绩快报中。 截至2026年2月12日，已有12家上市银行公布了2025年业绩快报，除华夏银行，其他各家净利润均实现 正增长：青岛银行的归母净利润同比增幅超过20%，齐鲁银行、杭州银行、浦发银行的归母净利润增幅 同比也在10%以上。而华夏银行归母净利润则比2024年末下降1.72%。 相比之下，2025年前三季度，商业银行累计实现净利润1.87万亿元，同比下降0.02%。其中，国有大 行、城商行、民营银行的净利润增速分别是2.27%、1.73%和7.09%；全国性股份制银行、农商行和外资 行净利润则同比下降，降幅分别为2.1%、7.36%和19.34%。 整体来看，商业银行的净利润正在迎来回暖。数据显示，2025年商业银行累计实现净利润为2.4万亿 元，较2024年末的2.3万亿元有所上升。2025年前三季度，商业银行累计实现净利润1.87万亿元，同比下 降0.02%，降幅较上半年有 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The banking index fell by 1.3% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 1.6% and 2.5% respectively, indicating a short-term style switch in the market [6][19] - H-shares of banks led the gains, while most A-shares declined, with notable performances from Huaxia Bank and Shanghai Bank due to improved earnings and strong expectations for convertible bond conversions [6][19] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio and return on equity (ROE) of bank stocks remain undervalued, with a continued recommendation for high-quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, including Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, and Suzhou Bank [6][19] - The report also suggests focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend, and convertible bond opportunities, particularly in Industrial Bank [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking sector's trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates falling, although the transaction volume share for state-owned and rural commercial banks has rebounded [8][39] - The average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.28%, with a spread of 249 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield, while H-shares yield 5.21% [7][29] Profit Growth and Net Interest Margin - The overall asset growth rate for commercial banks reached 9.0% year-on-year by the end of Q4 2025, with major state-owned banks seeing a growth rate of 10.8% [9][44] - The net profit growth for commercial banks was 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend, particularly among city and rural commercial banks [9][44] - The net interest margin for 2025 is projected at 1.42%, with a marginal stabilization observed, and a further narrowing of the decline expected in 2026 [9][46] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios across various banks are stable or improving, attributed to increased write-off efforts, while the provision coverage ratio continues to decline [10][49] - Capital adequacy ratios remain stable, with attention on the potential impact of the second round of fiscal injections for state-owned banks and refinancing for smaller banks in 2026 [10][49]

文丨吴海珊 编辑丨承承 11家A股银行发布2025年业绩快报，总资产平均增速11.32%，城商行盈利增速显著领先股份行。 截至2月11日，共有11家A股上市银行发布2025年业绩快报。包括4家股份行，6家城商行，1家农商行。 从业绩快报数据看，11家银行2025年总资产规模同比增速平均为11.32%，营业收入平均增速为3.30%， 归母净利润平均增速为7.83%。 申万宏源证券分析师郑庆明预计，上市银行2025年呈现"营收平稳，利润增速逐步改善"的特征，同时业 绩表现分化明显。他预计，上市银行2025年营收同比增长0.9%，归母净利润增速修复至1.9%。 股份行企稳 浦发、中信资产规模站上10万亿 截至2月11日，发布业绩快报的4家股份行（浦发银行、中信银行、招商银行、兴业银行）资产规模均突 破10万亿元。 其中，浦发银行2025年末的资产总额达至100817.46亿元，较2024年末增加6198.66亿元，增长 6.55%； 中信银行（601998．SH）资产总额达101316.58亿元，相比2024年末的95327.22亿元同比增长6.28%；招 商银行资产规模为130705.23亿元，同比增长7.56% ...

中国经济网北京2月17日讯 中国人民银行青岛市分行网站近日公布的行政处罚决定信息公示表（青 银罚决字〔2026〕1号）显示，青岛银行股份有限公司存在以下违法行为类型：1.违反金融统计相关规 定；2.违反账户管理规定；3.违反反假货币业务管理规定；4.违反信用信息采集、提供、查询及相关管 理规定；5.未按照规定报告可疑交易；6.未按照规定开展客户尽职调查。 | 店号 | 当事人名称 | 行政处罚决 | | 行政处罚内 | 作出行政处 | 作出行政处 | 公示期 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (姓名、职 务) | 定书文号 | 违法行为类型 1. 违反金融统计相关规 | kin | 罚决定机关 名称 | 罚決定日期 | Re | | | | | | 定; 2. 违反账户管理规定; | | | | | | | | | 中国人民银 | 3. 违反反假货币业务管 | | | | | | | | | 行青岛市分 | 理规定; | | | | | | | 1 | 青岛银行股 | 行行政处罚 | 4. 违反信用信息采集、 ...

2月14日金融一线消息，中国人民银行青岛市分行行政处罚决定信息公示表显示，青岛银行股份有限公 司存在以下违法行为类型，受到警告，并被罚款116.1万元。 6．未按照规定开展客户尽职调查 | | 当事人 | | | | | 作出行 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序 | 名称 | 行政处罚 | | 行政处 | 作出行政 | 政处罚 | 公示 | 备 | | | （姓 | 决定书文 | 违法行为类型 | | 处罚决定 | | | | | 号 | | | | 罚内容 | | 决定日 | 期限 | 注 | | | 名、职 | 号 | | | 机关名称 | 期 | | | | | 务） | | | | | | | | | | | | 1．违反金融统计 | | | | | | | | | | 相关规定； | | | | | | | | | | 2．违反账户管理 | | | | | | | | | 中国人民 | 规定； | | | | | | | | | 银行青岛 | 3．违反反假货币 | | | | | | | | 青岛银 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The overall social financing growth slightly declined to 8.2% in January, while M1 and M2 growth rates significantly rebounded, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0% [6][16] - Government net financing increased significantly by 2,831 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth [6][17] - The report indicates a shift in deposit structure due to accelerated deposit migration, impacting M1 negatively while having limited effect on M2 [6][16] Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth decreased slightly to 8.2%, while M1 and M2 growth rates increased significantly [15][16] - M1 and M2 growth rates rose by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [6][16] Government Sector - Fiscal strength showed a year-on-year decline, impacting overall financing dynamics [39] Household Sector - Demand remained stable year-on-year, with short-term loan demand increasing [39] Corporate Sector - Short-term loan demand increased year-on-year, while bill financing saw a significant reduction [39] Non-Bank Sector - The acceleration of deposit migration was noted, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][39]