证券研究报告 | 2025年08月21日 友邦保险（01299.HK） 优于大市 利润持续兑现，股东回报稳健 多项核心指标实现双位数增长，利润增速进展顺利。截至 2025 年中期，友邦 保险实现税后营运溢利 36.09 亿美元，每股增加 12%，显示出集团在盈利质量 上的持续改善。上半年，公司产生的基本自由盈余每股上升 10%，达到 35.69 亿美元，反映出集团强劲的现金生成能力。管理层重申 2023 年至 2026 年每股 税后营运溢利复合年增长率 9%至 11%的目标，目前进展顺利。 上半年，公司实现新业务价值 28.38 亿美元，按固定汇率计算同比增长 14%。 公司在亚洲多个市场的业务拓展成效显著。中国内地市场在计入经济假设变动 后新业务价值略有下滑 4%，但若剔除该因素，基本增长达 10%，第二季度增速 加快至 15%，显示出业务韧性和复苏动力。香港、泰国、新加坡等主要市场均 录得显著增长，其中泰国市场因行业规则变动前的短期销售推动，新业务价值 大幅提升 35%。此外，集团的新业务价值利润率提升 3.4 个百分点至 57.7%， 体现出产品组合优化和定价策略的有效性。 "最优秀代理"渠道新业务价值 ...

Core Viewpoint - AIA Life Insurance Co., Ltd. plans to launch its asset management subsidiary by the end of this year, aiming to enhance its long-term development and align with China's financial regulatory framework [1]. Group 1: Company Developments - AIA's asset management subsidiary will adopt the same standards as the AIA Group, integrating related asset management and investment operations [1]. - The CEO of AIA Insurance expressed confidence in the long-term prospects of the Chinese market and emphasized the importance of sustainable and high-quality development [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of this year, AIA reported a post-tax operating profit of approximately $36.09 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [1]. - The new business value reached a record high of $28.38 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase, with a new business value margin of approximately 57.7%, up by 3.4 percentage points [1]. Group 3: Mainland China Business - By the first half of 2025, AIA's new business value in mainland China is projected to be around $7.43 billion, with a new business value margin of 58.6%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The annualized new premium is estimated at approximately $12.68 billion [2].

Group 1 - AIA Life Insurance Co., Ltd. plans to launch its asset management subsidiary by the end of this year [1] - The new asset management company will align with the standards of AIA Group, integrating related asset management and investment operations [1] - AIA's regional CEO expressed confidence in the long-term development and value of the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of sustainable and high-quality growth [1] Group 2 - In the first half of this year, AIA reported a post-tax operating profit of approximately $3.609 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [1] - The new business value reached a record high of $2.838 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase [1] - The new business value margin improved to approximately 57.7%, up by 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 3 - In mainland China, AIA achieved a new business value of approximately $743 million in the first half of 2025 [2] - The new business value margin in this region was 58.6%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The annualized new premium in mainland China was approximately $1.268 billion [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that both New Business Value (NBV) and NBV Margin have increased, with a mid-year dividend per share rising by 10% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a mid-year NBV of $2.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a quarterly growth of 18.9% in Q2 [1] - The annualized new premium reached $4.94 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1] - The after-tax operating profit was $3.6 billion, up 6% year-on-year, aligning with the company's three-year target guidance [1] - The net profit was reported at $2.53 billion, a decrease of 24% year-on-year [1] - The embedded value stood at $70.9 billion, remaining stable since the beginning of the year, with an operating profit of $5.9 billion, up 9% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates continued strong growth in Hong Kong and the mainland China markets, supported by the establishment of new branches [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Insurance revenue is projected to grow from $17.514 billion in 2023 to $21.897 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.43% [1] - After-tax operating profit is expected to increase from $6.213 billion in 2023 to $8.307 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of about 8.37% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from $0.36 in 2023 to $0.93 by 2027 [1] - The embedded value (EV) per share is projected to grow from $6.42 in 2023 to $7.88 by 2027 [1] - The price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratio is expected to decrease from 1.49 in 2023 to 1.21 by 2027 [1] Business Segments - The report indicates that Hong Kong remains the largest contributor to the group's NBV, accounting for 35% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 24% [1] - The mainland China market showed a 10% year-on-year increase in NBV, with a quarterly growth of 15% in Q2 [1] - Thailand's NBV increased by 35% to $520 million, while Singapore's NBV rose by 16% to $260 million [1] - The overall NBV Margin improved by 3.8 percentage points to 57.7% [1] Investment Strategy - The company has reduced its allocation to fixed income while maintaining a stable proportion of equity assets [1] - The annualized net investment return rate was reported at 1.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, projecting embedded values of $73 billion, $77.6 billion, and $82.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1]

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 何奎）8月21日，友邦保险发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月的财务业绩公告 显示，该公司拟派发中期股息每股49港仙，同比增长10%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AIA reported a 14% increase in the Value of New Business (VONB) to a record high of $2,800,000,000, with underlying free surplus generation per share growing by 10% and operating profit after tax per share rising by 12% [2][22] - The operating return on embedded value (ROEV) increased by 290 basis points to 17.8%, while the operating return on equity (ROE) reached a record 16.2% [22][34] - The company returned $3,700,000,000 to shareholders in the first half, with a 10% increase in the interim dividend per share declared by the Board [3][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Hong Kong, VONB reached a record $1,100,000,000, up 24%, driven by strong demand from both domestic customers and mainland Chinese visitors [3][4] - AIA China reported VONB of $743,000,000, with growth accelerating to 15% in the second quarter, supported by a professional agency model [5][8] - The ASEAN region saw VONB grow by 20% to over $1,000,000,000, with agency VONB up by 22% and partnerships up by 16% [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AIA's new regions in Mainland China grew by 36% in the first half, contributing over 8% of AIA China's VONB [8] - The company remains the leading life and health insurer in ASEAN, with 95% of VONB coming from traditional protection and long-term savings products [10] - In India, Tata AIA Life's VONB increased by 38%, with the agency contributing more than half of the total VONB [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AIA's growth strategy focuses on high-quality, profitable new business, leveraging its competitive advantages in distribution and innovative product offerings [12][14] - The company aims to capture the growing demand for life and health insurance in Asia, driven by favorable demographics and rising personal financial assets [13][40] - AIA is committed to integrating health care into its insurance solutions, enhancing customer value and supporting sustainable profitability [17][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in AIA's ability to deliver compounding new business growth, sustaining higher earnings and cash flow generation into the future [21][40] - The company highlighted the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio of high-quality recurring profit streams that are resilient across economic cycles [3][12] - Management noted that Asia is the most attractive region for life and health insurance, with significant growth opportunities ahead [12][40] Other Important Information - AIA's agency remains the number one in Hong Kong and Macau, contributing significantly to growth, with a 35% increase in the agency's new business [4][15] - The company has implemented a robust capital management policy, targeting a payout ratio of 75% of annual net free surplus generation [36][101] - AIA has returned a total of $22,000,000,000 to shareholders since 2022, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [39][101] Q&A Session Summary Question: TSR guidance for 2026 and significance of India's new business value - Management acknowledged the importance of TSR and highlighted the direct returns to shareholders through increasing dividends and buybacks [45][49] - Regarding Tata AIA's performance, it was noted that India contributes approximately one-third of the group's new business value [46][55] Question: Growth ambition for AIA China and sustainability of ROE and ROEV - Management confirmed the ambitious 40% CAGR target for new regions in China, emphasizing a balance between stretch and quality [58][61] - The record highs in ROE and ROEV were attributed to high-quality new business and disciplined capital management [69][70] Question: Impact of competitive landscape changes in Hong Kong and future dividend expectations - Management indicated strong fundamentals in Hong Kong, with agency sales contributing significantly to growth despite competitive pressures [94][97] - The company remains flexible in its capital management, considering both dividends and buybacks for shareholder returns [101][102]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AIA Group reported a 14% increase in the Value of New Business (VONB) to a record high of $2,800,000,000, with underlying free surplus generation per share growing by 10% and operating profit after tax per share rising by 12% [1][21] - The operating return on embedded value (ROEV) increased by 290 basis points to 17.8%, while operating return on equity (ROE) reached a record 16.2% [21][31] - The company returned $3,700,000,000 to shareholders in the first half, with a declared 10% increase in interim dividend per share [2][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Hong Kong, VONB reached $1,100,000,000, up 24%, driven by strong demand from both domestic customers and mainland Chinese visitors [2][3] - AIA's agency channel in Hong Kong saw a 35% increase in Direct Operating New Business (DOMB), supported by a larger active agent base and productivity gains [3] - AIA China reported VONB of $743,000,000, with growth accelerating to 15% in the second quarter, primarily driven by the professional primary agency [4][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ASEAN region contributed over one-third of the group's VONB, with a 20% increase to over $1,000,000,000 for the first time [7] - In India, Tata AIA Life achieved a VONB growth of 38%, maintaining its position as a market leader in retail protection [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AIA's strategy focuses on high-quality recurring profit streams in protection, health, and long-term savings, which are resilient across economic cycles [2][12] - The company aims to replicate its success in Mainland China, expecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% in new business from newly entered regions over the next five years [6][60] - AIA is leveraging its multichannel distribution platform and innovative product offerings to meet the growing needs of Asia's middle class and affluent populations [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in AIA's ability to deliver sustainable growth and long-term value for shareholders, citing strong fundamentals and a robust capital management policy [20][37] - The company highlighted the compelling demographics in Asia, with a rapidly expanding customer base for protection, health, and retirement needs [10][11] Other Important Information - AIA's integrated health care strategy is enhancing customer value and supporting sustainable profitability, with a focus on personalized health products [15][16] - The company has made significant investments in technology, including generative AI, to improve customer engagement and operational efficiency [18][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: TSR guidance for 2026 and significance of India's new business value - Management acknowledged the importance of TSR and highlighted the direct returns to shareholders through increasing dividends and share buybacks [42][47] - Regarding Tata AIA's contribution, it was noted that India's new business value is still below 5% of the total group new business value [43][50] Question: Growth ambition for AIA China and sustainability of ROE and ROEV - Management confirmed the ambitious 40% CAGR target for new regions in China, emphasizing a balance between stretch and quality [57][60] - The record high ROE and ROEV were attributed to high-quality new business and effective management of the in-force book [68][70] Question: Impact of competitive landscape changes in Hong Kong - Management indicated strong fundamentals in Hong Kong, with continued growth expected despite competitive pressures [93][96] - The launch of a new innovative long-term savings product was well received, contributing to sustained demand [89][98] Question: Future capital management and shareholder returns - Management reiterated a commitment to a prudent and progressive dividend policy, with flexibility to return excess capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [101][102]

格隆汇8月21日｜友邦保险(1299.HK)公布截至6月底止中期业绩，股东应占纯利25.34亿美元，同比减少 23.54%；每股基本盈利0.24美元，中期股息增加10%至每股49港仙。 按市场划分，友邦保险香港业务的新业务价值增至10.63亿美元，按固定及实质汇率计算均升24%；其 中本地客户及中国内地访客的新业务销售在上半年均录得强劲双位数字的新业务价值增长。中国的新业 务价值则降至7.43亿美元，按固定及实质汇率计算分别跌4%及5%。 期内，按固定汇率计算，新业务价值上升14%至28.38亿美元；年化新保费升8%至49.42亿美元，新业务 价值利润率增加3.4个百分点至57.7%。税后营运溢利为36.09亿美元，同比升6%。若按实质汇率计算， 新业务价值增加16%；年化新保费升9%；新业务价值利润率升3.8个百分点；税后营运溢利升7%。 ...

Financial Performance Highlights - VONB increased by 14% to $2,838 million[11], driven by broad-based growth across 13 markets[49] - OPAT per share increased by 12%[11], reflecting higher earnings and ROE[41] - UFSG per share increased by 10% to $3,569 million[11] - Interim dividend per share increased by 10% to 49.00 HK cents[47] - $3.7 billion was returned to shareholders[13] Key Growth Drivers - AIA Hong Kong's VONB grew by 24% to $1,063 million[15], supported by agency and bancassurance channels[15] - AIA China's VONB reached $743 million in 1H25[17], with a VONB margin exceeding 65%[17] - ASEAN combined VONB increased by 20%[22], driven by traditional protection products[22] - Tata AIA Life's VONB increased by 38%[25], positioning it as a top 3 private life insurer in India[25] Strategic Initiatives - The company is deploying Gen AI at scale to accelerate growth across core platforms[38] - The company is focused on integrated healthcare strategy to make healthcare more accessible, affordable, and effective[35] - The company is building a differentiated and sustainable bancassurance model in China, focusing on HNW customers[104] Capital Management - The company maintains a strong shareholder capital ratio of 219% after returning $3.7 billion to shareholders[47, 82] - The company has a disciplined capital deployment strategy, with $22 billion returned since 2022[81] - The company targets a payout ratio of 75% of annual net free surplus generation[75]

Core Insights - AIA Group reported a 14% year-on-year increase in new business value, reaching $2.838 billion, with a new business value margin rising to 57.7% [1] - Annualized new premiums increased by 8% to $4.942 billion, while post-tax operating profit rose by 6% to $3.609 billion [1] - The group's insurance services performance grew by 19% to $3.517 billion, driven by the compound effect of new business and positive claims experience [1] Business Performance - The contribution of contract service margin to post-tax operating profit was $3.043 billion, leading to a 10.3% growth in basic contract service margin, which reached $61.38 billion at the end of the period [1] - Basic free surplus generated was $3.569 billion, with earnings per share increasing by 10% [1] Distribution Channels - New business value from agency channels grew by 17%, attributed to the application of generative artificial intelligence and technology investments, resulting in increased active agents and productivity [1] - New business value from partner distribution channels rose by 8% [1] Growth Outlook - The company remains optimistic about long-term growth drivers such as the continuous growth of wealth in Asia, low insurance penetration rates, and limited social welfare coverage [1] - AIA Group is confident in achieving a compound annual growth rate of 9% to 11% in post-tax operating profit per share over the next three years [1]