Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday following a mixed close on Wednesday, with major benchmark indices showing positive movement [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, pausing its easing cycle after three rate cuts last year [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a data-driven approach to decision-making, avoiding political criticisms during a press conference [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.26%, while the two-year bond was at 3.58%, with an 86.5% likelihood of unchanged interest rates in March according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [3] Stock Performance - Dow Jones increased by 0.15%, S&P 500 by 0.27%, Nasdaq 100 by 0.37%, and Russell 2000 by 0.26% [3] - Microsoft (MSFT) shows a weak price trend across all time frames but maintains a good quality ranking [3] - Tesla (TSLA) has a stronger long-term price trend but a weak short-term trend with a poor value ranking [4] - Meta Platforms (META) maintains a strong price trend across all time frames with a good quality ranking [5] - International Business Machines (IBM) shows a stronger price trend across all time frames with a solid quality ranking [6] - Apple Inc. (AAPL) is projected to post quarterly earnings of $2.67 per share on revenue of $138.42 billion, with a stronger long-term price trend but weak short and medium-term trends [8] Sector Performance - Energy and information technology stocks closed higher, while real estate, consumer staples, and health care sectors recorded the largest losses on Wednesday [9] Analyst Insights - BlackRock maintains a constructive economic outlook, citing "immutable economic laws" as stabilizers against extreme policy shifts [10] - The firm expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a "wait-and-see" stance, leaving interest rates unchanged due to mixed economic signals [11] - BlackRock remains overweight on U.S. equities, viewing the "AI buildout" as a significant structural driver, while forecasting record U.S. investment-grade bond issuance of $1.85 trillion this year [11] - Increased leverage among mega-cap tech firms is noted, with a preference for high-yield bonds over investment-grade bonds due to potential vulnerabilities in the financial system [12] Commodities and Global Markets - Crude oil futures rose by 2.55% to approximately $64.82 per barrel, while Gold Spot increased by 1.88% to around $5,519.32 per ounce [14] - Bitcoin (BTC) traded 1.57% lower at $87,847.25 per coin [14] Economic Data - Upcoming economic data includes initial jobless claims, delayed U.S. trade deficit report, and revised U.S. productivity data [15]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is facing a significant sell-off in early 2026, down 8.8% year to date, making it the second-worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, amid concerns over its AI software upgrades and the upcoming iPhone 18 launch [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - Apple's stock performance should be evaluated in context; it previously experienced a sell-off in early 2025 due to tariff fears but rebounded with a 32.5% gain in the latter half of the year, adding over $1 trillion in market cap [2] - Despite the recent pullback, Apple's stock is still up significantly over the last seven months, indicating that investors must assess the sustainability of its gains [3] Group 2: AI Integration and Product Development - Apple is integrating Google's Gemini models into its next generation of Foundation Models, with a Gemini-powered Siri expected to launch as soon as February [4] - The introduction of a voice-controlled AI assistant is seen as a strategic move to make AI more accessible to users, allowing for a gradual implementation of AI features [5] - Apple is known for its deliberate product launches, which can benefit long-term investors; the iPhone 17, released in September 2025, saw strong demand and earnings growth despite lacking significant AI features [6][7] Group 3: Financial Performance and Margins - Apple's product revenue grew by 4.1% in fiscal 2025, while services revenue increased by 13.5%, with products achieving a gross margin of 36.8% and services at 75.4% [10] - The growth of services, now comprising 26.2% of total sales, suggests potential for further margin expansion [10] - Overall, Apple's recent results indicate solid performance, with expectations for a significant year ahead driven by AI software upgrades and a new iPhone designed for AI integration [11] Group 4: Valuation and Competitive Landscape - Despite improving earnings and margins, Apple's valuation remains high, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 30.9, which is more expensive than competitors like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta [15] - Analysts project earnings growth of only 10.3% in fiscal 2026 and 10.5% in fiscal 2027, raising concerns about the stock's attractiveness relative to its valuation [13] - The company's heavy reliance on consumer spending poses risks, especially as sales in China have declined and U.S. consumers may be hesitant to pay higher prices for AI-integrated devices [16][17] Group 5: Investment Considerations - While Apple is considered a decent stock to buy in 2026, it is not viewed as a compelling opportunity compared to other high-growth stocks like Broadcom or more balanced earnings growth from Microsoft [18] - Investors who believe in Apple's potential to leverage AI may still consider purchasing shares, especially given its strong balance sheet and consistent free cash flow generation [20] - Overall, buying Apple after its recent pullback may not be a bad idea, but it is not seen as a strong buying opportunity [21]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 市场传出，苹果(Apple Inc.)及供应商去(2025)年严重错估消费者对iPhone Air的需求，如今正在 结算报废零件的损失，粗估金额可能有数亿美元之谱。 独立科技记者Tim Culpan 28日透过个人的Substack电子报订阅平台指出，消息显示尽管苹果已在 去年10月下令减产，该公司与供应商手中仍累积了最多150万台iPhone Air的零组件。 更惨的是，据传部分零件无法转作他用，或许只有报废一途。要厘清的是，这不代表有150万支 iPhone需要报废，而是指iPhone Air专用的特定零件。 根据Culpan分析，那些无法重新利用的零件所引发的资产减损金额，应落在数亿美元左右(low hundreds of millions of dollars)。 iPhone在2025年7-9月的整体销售额多达490亿美元、10-12月 预估销售额更有望达约800亿美元，区区数亿美元其实不算严重。 Culpan直指，真正的问题应该是，苹果何以这么不了解自家顾客的需求，以及这场混乱会对供应 链产生什么影响。据说，虽然部分供应商需自行承担损失，但苹果会吸收大部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple's stock price is under pressure as investors assess the impact of rapidly rising storage chip prices on its profitability, with earnings results expected soon [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Since reaching a peak on December 2, Apple's stock has declined over 10%, making it the worst performer among the seven major tech stocks and the largest drag on the S&P 500 index during the same period [1] - The stock has experienced eight consecutive weeks of decline, marking the longest streak since 1993 [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - The recent sell-off is partly driven by concerns that soaring storage chip costs will squeeze Apple's profit margins and earnings [1] - This issue has overshadowed positive developments in Apple's AI initiatives and is expected to become more pronounced when supply contracts expire in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analyst Shaan Bhatti, who holds a significant amount of Apple shares, noted that while Apple has faced storage chip price pressures before, the current rate of increase is unprecedented [1] - There is a clear market uncertainty, with fears that more negative news regarding storage chips may emerge [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest in artificial intelligence (AI) is characterized as a bubble, with expectations of significant future losses for most investors [2]. Group 1: Historical Context of Technology Bubbles - Numerous technology bubbles have occurred throughout history, with revolutionary innovations often leading to greater speculative bubbles [3]. - Historical examples include the British railway mania, the internet boom, and the SPAC bubble, which share common characteristics that can be applied to the current AI situation [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Current AI Bubble - The emergence of AI has generated extravagant claims, with proponents suggesting it will solve major global issues and transform economies [9]. - There is a climate of easy money, with low interest rates encouraging speculative investments in AI, similar to past bubbles [11][12]. - Investor optimism is high, with significant disparities between investor sentiment and general public sentiment, driven by economic inequality [19][22]. - A surge in publications and media coverage promoting AI has created a narrative that fuels speculation, reminiscent of past technological manias [25][23]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Valuations - AI startups raised over $200 billion in 2025, with significant capital flowing into private markets rather than public equity [32][33]. - Valuations in the AI sector are extremely high, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic seeing massive increases in their valuations [41]. - The current market cap to GDP ratio and cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratios indicate that U.S. equities are overpriced, with the CAPE reaching 40 [34][40]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The AI technology remains immature, with many experts doubting its ability to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the near future [42][46]. - There is a significant overcommitment of capital in the AI sector, leading to concerns about future returns and profitability [49][53]. - Unscrupulous behavior and dubious accounting practices are present in the AI ecosystem, reminiscent of past bubbles [54][59]. Group 5: Potential Outcomes - The investment boom in AI may be nearing its end, with signs of financial strain among major players and rising costs impacting profitability [65][66]. - Historical patterns suggest that once the bubble bursts, significant corporate bankruptcies and a shakeout phase will follow, leading to a consolidation in the industry [61][62].

Core Insights - The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund achieved a 15.1% annual return in 2025, driven by strong performances in technology and financial sectors, continuing its reliance on large tech stocks [1] - The fund, managed by the Norwegian Central Bank Investment Management (NBIM), reported a stock investment return of 19.3%, with other asset classes also showing growth [1] - Despite solid overall performance, the fund lagged its benchmark index by 28 basis points [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - Large tech stocks have consistently dominated the fund's performance in recent quarters, with NBIM holding approximately 1.5% of listed shares in around 7,200 companies globally [2] - The fund's largest holdings include major U.S. tech giants such as Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon [2] - Other asset classes also recorded positive returns, with fixed income investments yielding 5.4% and private real estate investments returning 4.4% [2] - The most notable performance came from private renewable energy infrastructure investments, which achieved a return rate of 18.1% [2] Group 2: Geographical Concentration Concerns - Over half of the fund's assets are concentrated in the U.S., primarily in stocks and bonds, raising concerns among experts due to recent geopolitical tensions [3] - An expert panel appointed by the government has recommended that the fund prepare for increasing geopolitical instability, particularly in light of recent comments from former President Trump regarding Greenland [3] - The expert panel advised against limiting the fund's investment scope, suggesting that NBIM should maintain its global and diversified investment strategy while addressing geopolitical risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gao Wei Electronics (01415) experienced a decline of over 5%, currently down 5.27% at HKD 29.5, with a trading volume of HKD 117 million [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Gao Wei Electronics' stock price underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Index in the previous quarter, attributed to market concerns over rising memory prices potentially weakening iPhone demand [1] - The company is expected to see resilient orders this year, with an anticipated 8% year-on-year growth in electronic manufacturing services shipment volume in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from Tianfeng International Securities stated that Apple's pricing strategy for the iPhone 18 series aims to avoid price increases, which is beneficial for marketing [1] - Apple is set to announce its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings after the US market closes on January 29 [1] - Current memory pricing for iPhones is negotiated quarterly rather than semi-annually, indicating a potential price increase in the second quarter of 2026, with the expected quarterly increase similar to that of the first quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gao Wei Electronics (01415) experienced a decline of over 5%, currently trading at 29.5 HKD with a transaction volume of 117 million HKD [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Gao Wei Electronics' stock price underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Index in the previous quarter, attributed to market concerns over rising memory prices potentially weakening iPhone demand [1] - The company is expected to see resilient orders this year, with an anticipated year-on-year growth of 8% in electronic manufacturing services shipment volume in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Analyst Guo Mingqi from Tianfeng International Securities indicated that Apple's pricing strategy for the iPhone 18 series aims to avoid price increases, which is beneficial for marketing [1] - Current memory pricing for iPhones is negotiated quarterly rather than biannually, suggesting a potential price increase in the second quarter of 2026, with the expected increase in line with the first quarter [1] - Apple is set to announce its fiscal year 2026 Q1 earnings after the US market closes on January 29 [1]

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a decline in overall market sentiment, with a current reading of 63.3, down from 65.2, indicating a shift within the "Greed" zone [1][4]. Stock Performance - U.S. stocks settled mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining approximately 0.2% ahead of significant earnings reports, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.01% to 6,978.03 [1][3]. - The Dow Jones closed higher by around 12 points at 49,015.60, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.17% to 23,857.45 during the session [3]. Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed negatively, with real estate, consumer staples, and health care stocks experiencing the largest losses. Conversely, energy and information technology stocks closed higher [3]. Company Highlights - Memory and storage stocks surged after Seagate Technology Inc. exceeded Wall Street expectations and raised its full-year guidance, attributing this to a worsening global supply crunch and high demand driven by AI [2]. - Starbucks Corp. reported better-than-expected first-quarter sales results, contributing positively to market sentiment [2]. Economic Data - The volume of mortgage applications decreased by 8.5% from the previous week during the week ending January 23 [2].

Core Insights - The European chip maker has returned to year-over-year growth driven by increased demand for chips across various sectors including personal electronics, communications, computer peripherals, and industrial machinery [1] Industry Summary - The demand for chips in personal electronics has contributed significantly to the growth of the European chip maker [1] - The communications sector has also shown a strong need for chips, aiding in the company's recovery [1] - Growth in the computer peripherals and industrial machinery markets has further supported the chip maker's positive performance [1]