Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor conducts professional background checks on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Market Focus - The primary focus is on stocks in the US market, although there is openness to owning shares in less stable economies, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - The investor's approach is characterized by a willingness to engage in high-risk, illiquid options, highlighting a unique investment profile [1]

Core Insights - AppLovin is set to announce its earnings on August 6, 2025, with significant interest in its Axon 2.0 machine learning algorithm for ad placement, which has shown a 71% revenue increase in Q1 2025, totaling $1.16 billion [2][3] - The company has a market capitalization of $129 billion and generated $5.1 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, achieving $2.4 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.9 billion [4] - Historical data indicates a 71% probability of positive one-day post-earnings returns, which increases to 83% when considering the last three years [6] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, profit is projected at approximately $2.32 per share, with revenues expected to reach around $1.22 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase [3] - The median of the 12 positive one-day returns over the last five years is 24%, while the median of the five negative returns is -4.6% [6] Investment Strategies - Two strategies are suggested: analyzing historical data to position before earnings or examining correlations between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings [5] - A less risky approach involves considering the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns, allowing traders to take positions based on positive one-day returns [7]

Core Insights - AppLovin Corporation (APP) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 6, with earnings expected to reach $1.99, reflecting a 123.6% increase year-over-year, and revenues projected at $1.21 billion, indicating a 12.3% growth from the previous year [1][8]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the upcoming quarter shows two upward revisions in the last 30 days, while the overall consensus has declined by 1.5% during the same period [2]. - The company has a strong history of earnings surprises, having exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 22.9% [4][5]. Revenue and Advertising Performance - Advertising revenue is anticipated to be a key driver for growth, with estimates at $1.23 billion, representing a 72% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EBITDA projected to rise by 92% [7][8]. - AppLovin's stock has surged 465% over the past year, significantly outperforming the broader industry growth of 71% and competitors like Alphabet and Meta Platforms [9]. Technological Advancements - The company has strengthened its position in mobile advertising through its AI engine, Axon 2, which has significantly improved ad performance and quadrupled advertising spend on its platform [11]. - Financial performance has been robust, with a 40% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025 and a 144% rise in net income compared to the previous year [12]. Market Sentiment - There is cautious optimism ahead of the earnings report, driven by strong advertising performance and the success of Axon 2, although recent estimate revisions indicate mixed sentiment [13].

Core Insights - Companies delivering explosive revenue growth are positioned for significant upside potential, particularly in the tech sector [1] Palantir - Palantir Technologies reported a 39% increase in revenue to $883.9 million in Q1, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth [2] - The U.S. commercial business revenue surged 71% year over year to $255 million, while revenue from the U.S. government increased by 45% [2] - The adoption of its AI Platform (AIP) is driving growth, with many customers still in early usage stages, indicating substantial growth opportunities [3][4] SoundHound AI - SoundHound AI experienced a remarkable 151% year-over-year revenue growth to $29.1 million, achieving six consecutive quarters of over 50% growth [5] - The company is making significant inroads in the automotive industry and the restaurant sector, leveraging its technology for customizable voice solutions [6] - The acquisition of Amelia enhances SoundHound's capabilities in agentic AI, with the potential for continued hypergrowth if its technology becomes the preferred interface across industries [7] AppLovin - AppLovin's revenue increased by 40% to $1.48 billion in Q1, with ad revenue soaring 73% due to its AI-powered Axon 2 engine [8] - The Axon 2 adtech engine optimizes ad targeting and placement, helping the company capture significant market share in mobile gaming, with expected growth of 20% to 30% [9] - AppLovin is expanding its ad engine into web-based and e-commerce advertising, presenting further growth opportunities [10] GitLab - GitLab achieved a 27% year-over-year revenue growth to $214.5 million in Q1, marking its eighth consecutive quarter of 25% to 40% growth [11] - The company is transforming into a full software-development life cycle platform, utilizing AI to automate processes and enhance value [12][13] - GitLab may shift from a seat-based model to a consumption-based model, which could drive significant revenue growth [13] Toast - Toast's revenue from subscription and fintech solutions grew by 35% year over year in Q1, with total restaurant locations using its platform increasing by 25% to 140,000 [15] - The company is evolving into a digital operating system for restaurants, offering tools for menu optimization, staffing, and marketing [16] - With expanding AI capabilities and a growing footprint, Toast is well-positioned for future growth in the restaurant tech sector [17]

Group 1 - The stock of AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP) has increased by 5.69% since the last analysis, indicating continued attractiveness for investment [1] - Insights into the company's Q2 earnings are expected to be released on August 6, which may influence future stock performance [1] Group 2 - Invictus Origin, founded by Oliver Rodzianko, is a high-alpha investment company aiming for high annual returns through innovative portfolio strategies [2] - The flagship High-Alpha Black Swan Portfolio is designed to outperform leading indices like the Nasdaq-100, maintaining approximately 20% in dynamic cash reserves for strategic value investing during market disruptions [2] - Oliver Rodzianko has extensive experience as a macro-focused investment analyst, specializing in sectors such as technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and energy [2]

In the latest close session, AppLovin (APP) was down 2.95% at $379.17. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.6%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 1.23%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 2.24%. Shares of the mobile app technology company have appreciated by 14.36% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Business Services sector's loss of 1.38%, and the S&P 500's gain of 2.25%.The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of AppLovin ...

Group 1 - Michael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor, focusing on buying undervalued companies at pivotal moments when their profitability is expected to improve significantly over the next year [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes technology and the Great Energy Transition, including uranium, with a concentrated portfolio of approximately 15 to 20 stocks and an average holding period of 18 months [1] - Michael has over 10 years of experience analyzing companies in tech and energy sectors, and has built a following of over 40,000 on Seeking Alpha [2] Group 2 - The Investing Group Deep Value Returns, led by Michael, offers insights through a concentrated portfolio of value stocks, timely updates on stock picks, and a weekly webinar for live advice [3] - The group provides "hand-holding" support for both new and experienced investors, fostering an active and kind community accessible via chat [3]

Group 1: Palantir Technologies - Palantir Technologies aims to become the operating system of AI, similar to how Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft dominate their respective markets [2] - The AI Platform (AIP) integrates data across organizations to enhance AI's actionability, with applications in various industries including defense and healthcare [3][4] - Revenue growth is accelerating, particularly in the U.S. commercial sector, with significant government contracts, including a deal with NATO [4][5] Group 2: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - AMD is positioning itself in the AI market by focusing on inference, which is expected to grow larger than the training market dominated by Nvidia [7][8] - The company is gaining traction with its GPUs for inference tasks, with one major AI model company utilizing AMD's hardware for a significant portion of its traffic [8] - The development of UALink, a new open-source standard for AI data centers, could allow AMD to gain market share by enabling compatibility with various AI chips [9][10] Group 3: AppLovin - AppLovin has successfully launched its AI-driven advertising engine, Axon 2, which has significantly improved ad targeting and revenue, particularly in gaming apps [11][12] - The company is exploring expansion into e-commerce and web-based ads, which could lead to substantial growth if successful [13][15] - Despite facing scrutiny from short-sellers, AppLovin has attracted interest from notable investors and continues to operate on major platforms like Google Play and Apple's App Store [14][15]

Core Insights - Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (KD) and AppLovin (APP) are being compared for their value to investors in the Technology Services sector [1] - KD has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) while APP has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a more favorable earnings outlook for KD [3] Valuation Metrics - KD has a forward P/E ratio of 17.78, significantly lower than APP's forward P/E of 44.28 [5] - KD's PEG ratio is 0.71, while APP's PEG ratio is 2.21, suggesting that KD is expected to grow earnings at a more favorable rate relative to its price [5] - KD's P/B ratio is 6.9 compared to APP's P/B of 218.13, indicating that KD is more reasonably valued in terms of its book value [6] Investment Conclusion - Based on stronger estimate revision activity and more attractive valuation metrics, KD is considered the superior investment option for value investors at this time [7]

Group 1 - UBS highlights the upcoming earnings season for small and mid-cap companies focused on AI application software, recommending increased allocation to Applovin (APP.US) and The Trade Desk (TTD.US) as leaders in the "AI + digital advertising" segment [1][2] - The report emphasizes that small-cap stocks are currently more attractive compared to large-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index's expected P/E ratio around 15x, below historical averages [2][3] - UBS expects several small-cap AI application software companies to provide positive earnings guidance, with Applovin and The Trade Desk anticipated to exceed market expectations for Q3 [3][4] Group 2 - The integration of AI in digital advertising has accelerated since the rise of ChatGPT, with major players like Google and Meta incorporating generative AI technologies to enhance ad performance [4][5] - UBS notes that the shift in focus from hardware to software in tech investments is benefiting companies like Applovin and The Trade Desk, as demand for AI application software continues to grow [5][6] - UBS maintains an optimistic outlook on Applovin's performance, raising its Q2 2025 revenue forecast to $867 million, reflecting positive trends from App Store advertising policies and strong growth in its self-operated app business [7][8] Group 3 - The Trade Desk is also viewed positively by UBS, with expectations for steady growth in Q2, driven by its "AI + digital advertising" platform and upcoming events that could catalyze further performance [7][8] - Both companies have successfully integrated generative AI and deep learning into their advertising technologies, leading to significant revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [8]