Core Viewpoint - Daiwa Capital Markets maintains a "Hold" rating on China Merchants Bank (600036) but lowers the target price from HKD 52 to HKD 49, reflecting recent profit revisions and a lower long-term ROE forecast [1] Financial Performance - China Merchants Bank expects a 1.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, reaching RMB 150.2 billion, which exceeds both the bank's and market's expectations due to improvements in net interest income and a narrowing decline in non-interest income [1] - The bank's ROE is projected to decline by 105 basis points to 13.4% [1] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The bank's earnings forecast for 2025 has been raised by 1%, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been reduced by 2.9% and 1.1%, respectively [1] Provision Coverage - The provision coverage ratio of China Merchants Bank has dropped below 400%, potentially due to stricter bad debt recognition standards and accelerated disposal of non-performing assets [1] - Despite the decline, the bank's provision coverage ratio remains above that of its peers [1]

招商银行预期2025年纯利同比增长1.2%至1,502亿元人民币，胜于该行及市场预测，主要是由于净利息 收入改善及非净利息收入的同比降幅持续收窄。招行料去年收入同比平稳; ROE跌105个基点至13.4%。 报告续提到，招商银行的拨备覆盖率骤降至400%以下，此现象可能源于更严格的坏账认列标准及加速 处置不良资产。尽管如此，招商银行的拨备覆盖率仍稳居同行水平之上。 智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，续予招商银行(03968)"持有"评级，但将目标价由52港元下调 至49港元，以反映最新的盈利修订及较低的长期ROE预测，当中，该行调升招行2025年盈测1%，惟将 2026及27年预测分别下调2.9%及1.1%。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's revenue growth turned positive in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of +0.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders grew by +1.2% [2][6] - Interest income increased by +2.0% for the year, with a notable acceleration in Q4, driven by a reduction in the decline of net interest margin [2][6] - Non-interest income decreased by -3.4% for the year, although fee income is expected to remain stable, and wealth management income is projected to grow due to market recovery [2][6] - Total assets grew by +7.6% year-on-year, with loans increasing by +5.4%, and a significant acceleration in Q4 [2][6] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.94%, with a provision coverage ratio of 392%, indicating potential retail risk disturbances [2][6] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue growth of +0.01% for the full year, with Q4 showing a growth of +1.6% after a -0.5% decline in the first three quarters [2][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by +1.2% for the year, with Q4 growth at +3.4% [2][6] - Interest income grew by +2.0% for the year, with Q4 growth accelerating to +2.9% [2][6] Asset Quality and Risk - The non-performing loan ratio was stable at 0.94% at year-end, with a provision coverage ratio of 392%, down by 14 percentage points [2][6] - Retail credit card overdue rates have decreased for three consecutive quarters, indicating stabilization in risk indicators [2][6] Growth and Scale - Total assets increased by +7.6% year-on-year, with loans growing by +5.4% [2][6] - Q4 saw a quarter-on-quarter loan growth of +1.7%, with expectations of early release of credit reserves for 2026 [2][6] Market Position and Valuation - The stock price has been affected by net outflows from bank index funds and real estate risk expectations, leading to a current A-share PB valuation of 0.88x for 2025 and 0.81x for 2026 [2][6] - The expected dividend yield for A-shares is projected to rise to 5.3% for 2025 and 5.4% for 2026, indicating clear dividend value [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank (600036) announced a scheduled maintenance to enhance the reliability of its business systems, which will result in a temporary interruption of certain retail and corporate services on February 28, 2026, from 00:00 to 06:00 [1] Group 1 - The scheduled maintenance aims to improve the reliability of the bank's business systems [1] - During the maintenance period, some retail and corporate services will be briefly unavailable [1] - Customers are advised to retry their transactions later if they encounter issues during the maintenance [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank is expected to achieve a 1.2% year-on-year growth in net profit to 150.2 billion yuan by 2025, surpassing both the bank's and market forecasts, primarily due to improvements in net interest income and a continued narrowing of the year-on-year decline in non-interest income [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank's revenue is anticipated to remain stable year-on-year for the previous year [1] - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to decline by 105 basis points to 13.4% [1] - The bank's provision coverage ratio has dropped below 400%, potentially due to stricter bad debt recognition standards and accelerated disposal of non-performing assets [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - The bank maintains a "Hold" rating, but the target price has been reduced from 52 HKD to 49 HKD to reflect the latest profit revisions and lower long-term ROE forecasts [1] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have been increased by 1%, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been decreased by 2.9% and 1.1%, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Merchants Bank (600036)(03968) has released preliminary results for 2025, with revenue and net profit at 337.5 billion yuan and 150.2 billion yuan respectively, indicating a stabilization in revenue year-on-year after a decline in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank's revenue for the year remained flat year-on-year, reversing the downward trend observed in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - UBS sets a 12-month target price for China Merchants Bank at 56 HKD, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] Group 2: Income and Loan Metrics - The bank's net interest income and average assets are expected to rise by 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 1.73% in Q4 2025 [1] - It is anticipated that net fee income will continue to show steady growth, while trading income may be negatively impacted by rising bond yields and a high comparative base [1] Group 3: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.94%, but the NPL coverage ratio has significantly decreased by 20.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 391.79% [1] - The loan provision ratio has decreased by 24 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 3.68%, indicating that the bank maintained relatively low credit costs in Q4 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Merchants Bank (03968) has released preliminary results for 2025, with revenue and net profit at 337.5 billion and 150.2 billion RMB respectively, indicating a stabilization in revenue year-on-year after a decline in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank's revenue for the year remained flat year-on-year, reversing the downward trend observed in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - UBS sets a 12-month target price for China Merchants Bank at 56 HKD, with a "neutral" rating [1] Group 2: Income and Loan Metrics - The bank's net interest income and average assets are expected to rise by 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 1.73% in Q4 2025 [1] - Net fee income is anticipated to maintain steady growth, while trading income may be negatively impacted by rising bond yields and a high comparative base [1] Group 3: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.94%, but the NPL coverage ratio has significantly decreased by 20.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 391.79% [1] - The loan provision ratio has decreased by 24 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 3.68%, reflecting the bank's maintenance of low credit costs in Q4 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has issued a report rating China Merchants Bank (600036) (03968) as "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, with a 12-month target price of 54.22 RMB for A-shares and 52.96 HKD for H-shares [1] Financial Performance - China Merchants Bank reported preliminary results for the fiscal year 2025, with total revenue of 338 billion RMB and a net profit of 150 billion RMB [1] - For the fourth quarter of 2025, the estimated revenue is 86 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%, which is 1% lower than Goldman Sachs' expectations [1] - The net profit for the same quarter is projected to be 36 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, also 1% below Goldman Sachs' forecast [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Goldman Sachs has rated China Merchants Bank (03968) with a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares, setting a 12-month target price of 54.22 RMB for A-shares and 52.96 HKD for H-shares [1] Group 2 - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) reported preliminary performance for the year 2025, with total revenue of 338 billion RMB and a net profit of 150 billion RMB [1] - The estimated revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 is 86 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 2%, which is 1% lower than Goldman Sachs' expectations [1] - The net profit for the fourth quarter is projected to be 36 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, also 1% lower than Goldman Sachs' expectations [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank (招商银行) with an expected stock performance exceeding the market by over 20% within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The bank's revenue has returned to positive growth, with a slight increase of 0.01% year-on-year for 2025, and a net profit growth of 1.21% year-on-year [3][6]. - Total assets grew by 7.56% year-on-year by the end of 2025, with loans increasing by 5.37% and deposits by 8.13% [3][6]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio holding steady at 0.94% as of the end of 2025 [6][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the bank's net interest income growth improved to 2.0% year-on-year, while non-interest income decreased by 3.38% [6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 151,152 million yuan, with a growth forecast of 1.9% for 2025, 3.5% for 2026, and 4.6% for 2027 [5][6]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio is projected to decrease slightly to 0.92% by 2026 and 0.91% by 2027, indicating a solid asset quality outlook [15][16]. - The provision coverage ratio is expected to remain high at 406% in 2025, ensuring robust risk mitigation [15][16]. Growth Projections - The bank's total assets are expected to grow from 13,044,679 million yuan in 2025 to 15,730,218 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [15]. - Loan growth is projected at 5.0% for 2025, with a gradual increase to 6.0% in subsequent years [16]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 6.4 in 2024 to 5.8 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation relative to earnings growth [5][6]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 0.90 in 2024 to 0.72 by 2027, further supporting the investment case [5][6].