Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 150.74% but a recent decline of 4.24% over the past five trading days [1] Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012. The company primarily engages in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2] - The company's main business revenue composition includes: refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders reached 304,200, an increase of 28.08% from the previous period [2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved operating revenue of 145.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.280 billion yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholding Structure - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fourth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 669.5 million shares, an increase of 47.472 million shares from the previous period [3] - The top five circulating shareholders include various ETFs, with notable changes in holdings, such as a decrease of 3.6543 million shares for Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and a new entry of E Fund CSI 300 ETF holding 86.4742 million shares [3]

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03993 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,933,468,000 | RMB | | 0.2 RMB | | 786,693,600 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,933,468,000 | RMB | | 0.2 RMB | | 786,693,600 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份 ...

Core Points - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. experienced a 5.16% decline in stock price, trading at 16.16 CNY per share with a total market capitalization of 345.73 billion CNY as of November 3 [1] - The company, established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012, primarily engages in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [1] Fund Holdings - Zhonggeng Fund holds a significant position in Luoyang Molybdenum, with its "Zhonggeng Value Dynamic Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund" (007497) owning 3.924 million shares, accounting for 5.47% of the fund's net value, making it the fourth-largest holding [2] - The fund has reported a year-to-date return of 36.98% and a one-year return of 31.58%, ranking 2188 out of 8223 and 2610 out of 8115 respectively [2] - The fund manager, Wu Chenggen, has been in position for 5 years and 155 days, with the fund's total assets amounting to 1.127 billion CNY and a best return of 130.96% during his tenure [2]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's Q3 2025 financial report shows record revenue and net profit, indicating strong growth momentum despite management changes and market challenges [2][4][9]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 145.485 billion yuan and a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year profit increase of 72.61% [2][4]. - Year-to-date, the company's A-share price has risen by 166.25%, while its Hong Kong stock has increased by over 230% [4]. - Despite a 5.99% year-on-year decline in revenue, net profit increased significantly, with Q3 net profit reaching 5.608 billion yuan, a 96.40% year-on-year growth [4][5]. Operational Highlights - Copper remains the main revenue driver, with production reaching 543,400 tons, a 14.14% increase year-on-year [5]. - The company reported a gross profit margin of 54.07% for its copper business, reflecting a 1.73 percentage point increase year-on-year [5]. - The cobalt segment, despite a 36% drop in sales volume, saw a significant increase in gross margin to 63.46%, up 26.97 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Management Changes - Luoyang Molybdenum appointed Peng Xuhui as the new President and CEO, following the resignation of former President Sun Ruiwen [2][11]. - The new management team includes executives with extensive experience in mining and international acquisitions, indicating a strategic shift towards global expansion [10][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a strategic transformation, including a recent acquisition of Lumina Gold for approximately 3.07 billion yuan, marking a return to the gold sector [2][4]. - A planned investment of 1.084 billion USD for the KFM Phase II project aims to add 100,000 tons of copper capacity annually [8][12]. Market Challenges - The recent changes in Congo's export policies, including a shift to annual export quotas, may impact Luoyang Molybdenum's overall shipment pace and revenue [13][14]. - The company faces challenges in cash flow efficiency, with a net cash ratio dropping to 0.96, indicating potential issues in converting profits into cash [6][8].

Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 96.40% year-on-year increase, with Q1-Q3 net profit reaching 14.3 billion yuan, up 72.61% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 145.5 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a decrease of 5.99% year-on-year, while Q3 revenue was 50.7 billion yuan, down 2.36% year-on-year [1] - The KFM Phase II construction proposal was approved, which aims to add 100,000 tons of copper capacity with an investment of 1.084 billion USD, expected to be completed by 2027 [1] Production Performance - The company reported good performance in production, with Q3 copper production exceeding 180,000 tons [1] - For Q1-Q3 2025, the production figures for various minerals were as follows: copper at 543,000 tons, cobalt at 88,000 tons, molybdenum at 10,600 tons, tungsten at 6,000 tons, niobium at 7,800 tons, and phosphate fertilizer at 912,800 tons, with increases in all except molybdenum and tungsten [1] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see steady growth in copper production from 2025 to 2027, with a rapid increase anticipated post KFM Phase II completion [2] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.2 billion yuan, 25.7 billion yuan, and 31.6 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 49%, 27%, and 23% [2] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 18.62, 14.67, and 11.90 for the respective years [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a record high net profit of 56 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 96.40% [4]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 145.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.99% year-on-year, but the net profit for the same period rose by 72.61% to 143 billion yuan [4]. - The company’s copper production exceeded 180,000 tons in Q3 2025, surpassing market expectations, with total production figures for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate fertilizer showing varying degrees of year-on-year growth [5]. - The KFM Phase II construction proposal was approved, which is expected to add 100,000 tons of copper capacity with an investment of 1.084 billion USD, projected to be completed by 2027 [6]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see steady growth in copper production from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 202 billion yuan, 257 billion yuan, and 316 billion yuan for those years, representing year-on-year growth rates of 49%, 27%, and 23% respectively [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.63 yuan in 2024 to 1.48 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 27.83 to 11.90 over the same period [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance continues to exceed expectations, with promising developments in the KFM Phase II and gold projects [5] - The company reported a revenue of 145.485 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.280 billion yuan [7] - The company has shown strong production performance, exceeding production targets for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: 186.269 billion yuan - 2024: 213.029 billion yuan (14.37% YoY growth) - 2025E: 229.165 billion yuan (7.57% YoY growth) - 2026E: 242.194 billion yuan (5.69% YoY growth) - 2027E: 251.230 billion yuan (3.73% YoY growth) [6] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: 8.250 billion yuan - 2024: 13.532 billion yuan (64.03% YoY growth) - 2025E: 20.178 billion yuan (49.11% YoY growth) - 2026E: 25.207 billion yuan (24.92% YoY growth) - 2027E: 28.309 billion yuan (12.30% YoY growth) [6] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 0.39 yuan - 2024: 0.63 yuan - 2025E: 0.94 yuan - 2026E: 1.18 yuan - 2027E: 1.32 yuan [6] Production and Cost Efficiency - The company achieved significant cost reductions, with a notable decrease in operating costs by 10.94% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [7] - The copper production for Q3 was 189,800 tons, with a cost reduction of 8% to 29,400 yuan per ton, leading to a 3% increase in gross profit per ton [7] - The cobalt production was impacted by the ban on mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo, resulting in a 12% decrease in output [7] Project Development - The company plans to invest 1.084 billion USD in the KFM Phase II project, expected to commence production in 2027, adding 100,000 tons of copper annually [7] - Ongoing construction of the Heshima hydropower station in the Democratic Republic of Congo is anticipated to secure long-term power supply [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, driven by rising copper and cobalt prices, alongside increased copper production [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.61 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 96.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.7% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit for the same period was 5.81 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 98.6% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 21.2% [1]. - The company produced 190,000 tons of copper in Q3 2025, an increase of 17% year-on-year and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter, with total copper production for the year expected to exceed guidance [1]. Group 2: Cobalt Sales and Pricing - The company's cobalt sales significantly declined due to a cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with quarterly sales of cobalt recorded at 24,000 tons, 22,000 tons, and 4,800 tons for the first three quarters [2]. - The cobalt production remained stable, with output of 30,000 tons, 31,000 tons, and 27,000 tons in the first three quarters, as production is derived from copper-cobalt ores [2]. - Cobalt prices have surged, with domestic spot prices rising from 191,000 yuan/ton in Q1 to 400,000 yuan/ton recently, which is expected to offset the impact of declining sales volumes [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Expansion Plans - The company announced plans for the KFM Phase II project, with an investment of 1.084 billion USD and a construction period of two years, expected to add 100,000 tons of copper production annually starting in 2027 [1]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.705 billion yuan, 22.868 billion yuan, and 24.116 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.6%, 16.1%, and 5.5% respectively [3]. - The company is positioned to significantly increase copper production to 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons post-2028, benefiting from high price elasticity in both copper and cobalt markets [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][20]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025 increased by 96% year-on-year, reaching 5.61 billion yuan, driven by rising copper and cobalt prices and increased copper production [1][6]. - The company is expected to exceed its annual copper production guidance, with a total production of 543,000 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a 17% increase year-on-year [1][6]. - The company announced the construction of the KFM Phase II project, with an investment of 1.084 billion USD, expected to add 100,000 tons of copper metal production per year upon completion in 2027 [1][6]. - Despite a significant decline in cobalt sales due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, cobalt prices have risen sharply, which is expected to offset the impact of lower sales volumes on profitability [2][7]. - The company is entering a production release year in 2023, with expectations of copper production reaching 800,000 to 1 million tons by 2028, supported by major expansion projects [2][14]. Financial Forecasts and Key Indicators - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 19.705 billion, 22.868 billion, and 24.116 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.6%, 16.1%, and 5.5% [2][17]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.792, 1.06, and 1.12 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.2, 16.5, and 15.7 [2][17]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 186.269 billion yuan in 2023 to 274.603 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [3][17]. - The EBIT margin is projected to improve from 6.5% in 2023 to 17.2% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3][17]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, with estimates of 24.4% in 2025 and 23.1% in 2027 [3][17].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, driven by rising product prices and increased production and sales of copper products [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 145.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 14.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6% [1]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company reported a revenue of 50.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.99%. The net profit for this quarter was 5.608 billion yuan, up 96.4% year-on-year and 18.69% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Sales Performance - Copper production for the first three quarters of 2025 was 543,400 tons, an increase of 14.14% year-on-year, while sales reached 520,300 tons, up 10.56% year-on-year. Cobalt production was 88,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.84%, but sales dropped by 36.08% to 51,000 tons [1][2]. - The company is expected to exceed an annualized copper production of 700,000 tons based on current production rates [1]. Price and Margin Analysis - The average LME copper price for the first three quarters of 2025 was $9,589 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.66%. The average SHFE copper price was 78,300 yuan per ton, up 4.42% year-on-year. The average price for standard-grade cobalt was $14.52 per pound, reflecting a 14.8% increase [2]. - The copper segment achieved a gross profit of 20.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, with a gross margin rising from 52.34% to 54.07%. The cobalt segment's gross profit was 3.924 billion yuan, up 60.4%, with a gross margin increasing from 36.49% to 63.46% [2]. Future Outlook and Capacity Expansion - The company aims to achieve an annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons over the next five years. The KFM Phase II project, with an investment of $1.084 billion, is expected to be completed by 2027, adding a processing capacity of 7.26 million tons per year and an average annual output of 100,000 tons of copper metal [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Due to the resonance of copper and cobalt prices and exceeding copper production expectations, the company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 18.6 billion, 24.4 billion, and 25.4 billion yuan, respectively. This corresponds to a PE ratio of 20, 15, and 15 times based on a market capitalization of 375.5 billion yuan [4].