Welcome back. After months of auto tariffs, has the industry seen some major production changes. Our Phil Leau is looking into that this morning and joins us now.Hey, Phil. Hey, Carl. I wouldn't call them major changes, but it's clear that the automakers, if they've had excess capacity here in the US, they've tried to use it or at least shift some production there.Look at these numbers from JD Power. In the first quarter, 51% of what was sold in the US was built in the US. You saw it go up to 54 in April.a ...

Core Insights - The upcoming Q2 2025 earnings reports for Ford and General Motors are highly anticipated by investors to assess which stock is better positioned [1] - General Motors is set to report earnings on the upcoming Tuesday, while Ford will follow on July 30 [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GM's Q2 earnings is $2.44 per share with revenues of $45.34 billion, having surpassed EPS estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 10.16% [2] - Ford's consensus estimates are $0.30 for EPS and $41.5 billion for sales, with a less favorable earnings surprise history, beating estimates twice and missing once in the last four quarters [3] Earnings Surprise Potential - General Motors has a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of -4.05%, while Ford has a Zacks Rank of 2 and an Earnings ESP of -36.59% [4] Vehicle Deliveries - Ford sold 612,095 vehicles in Q2 2025, a 14.2% increase year-over-year, driven by strong demand for trucks and hybrids [5] - General Motors sold 746,588 units, up 7.3% year-over-year, with significant growth across all brands, particularly Buick, which saw a 19.3% increase in Q2 [6] Electrification Efforts - General Motors has accelerated its electric vehicle sales, with EV sales up 111% to 46,280 units in Q2, driven by a diverse lineup [7][8] - Ford's EV sales, however, dropped 31% in Q2, but the company is focusing on hybrid strategies and operational scaling for long-term growth [9] Tariff Impact - Ford anticipates a $1.5 billion impact from tariffs, while General Motors expects a profit impact of $4-$5 billion due to tariffs on imports [10] Dividend Comparison - Ford offers a high dividend yield of over 5%, significantly higher than GM's 1.13% and the industry average of 0.3% [11] - Ford aims to distribute 40-50% of free cash flow going forward, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [12] Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year decline in EPS for GM and Ford of 12.3% and 40%, respectively, but Ford's 2026 EPS is projected to grow by 13.4% [13] - Recent estimate revisions suggest Ford is better positioned than GM, with Ford's 2025 EPS estimate remaining stable at $1.11 [14] Stock Performance & Valuation - Year-to-date, Ford's shares have risen 20%, while GM's stock price has remained flat [15] - GM's stock trades at 5.65X forward earnings, while Ford's is at 9.94X, both below the auto sector's average of 25.82X [18] Conclusion - Ford appears better positioned heading into Q2 earnings due to its hybrid momentum, shareholder-friendly policies, and solid stock performance, despite GM's strength in EV sales [19]

Group 1 - The European Commission has proposed a retaliatory tariff list against U.S. goods valued at €72 billion (approximately $84 billion), including Boeing aircraft, automobiles, bourbon whiskey, and various industrial and agricultural products [1] - The proposed tariffs are a response to U.S. President Trump's threat to raise tariffs on EU goods to 30% starting August 1, which could significantly impact transatlantic trade relations [1] - The tariff list focuses on industrial products, with over €65 billion in value, including nearly €11 billion in aircraft-related products, over €9.4 billion in machinery, €8 billion in automobiles, and €6 billion in agricultural products [1] Group 2 - Affected automotive manufacturers include major U.S. and European companies such as General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, Tesla, Volkswagen, and Toyota, with concerns that tariffs will increase costs, reduce sales, and potentially lead to layoffs [2] - The automotive industry is one of the most severely impacted sectors, with European manufacturers like Volkswagen and BMW facing potential losses in sales amounting to billions of euros due to tariffs [2] - The scale and scope of the tariff measures highlight the escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and EU, with the EU emphasizing compliance with World Trade Organization rules while warning of the deep economic impacts of a tit-for-tat tariff war [2] Group 3 - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has warned that U.S. tariff policies may lead to a decline in global trade volumes, negatively affecting the global economy [3] - WTO Director-General Iweala stated that U.S. tariff policies violate core WTO principles and are detrimental to the global economy [3]

Core Insights - Ford Motor is facing significant scrutiny regarding vehicle quality and safety standards, leading the U.S. auto industry in safety recalls, with 88 recalls in the first half of 2025, over four times that of the next manufacturer [2] - The company reported a major recall involving 850,000 pickup trucks and SUVs due to potential fuel pump failures, which could lead to engine stalling [2] - Ford's stock has declined approximately 15% over the past 12 months, contrasting with an 11% gain in the S&P 500, indicating investor concerns about operational and reputational challenges [2] Recall Impact - The rising number of recalls is expected to incur substantial costs for Ford, including expenses for parts, labor, and logistics [3] - Ongoing safety concerns may undermine consumer trust and Ford's reputation for reliability, risking market share to competitors perceived as more reliable [3] - CEO Jim Farley acknowledged that Ford is lagging behind Chinese automakers in the electric vehicle market [3] Financial Performance - Warranty costs have increased by 22% to $6 billion in 2024, primarily due to recall-related repairs, putting pressure on margins and complicating profitability [4] - Ford anticipates a loss of between $5 billion and $5.4 billion in its electric vehicle segment this year [4] Quality Improvement Efforts - To address quality and cost challenges, Ford is enhancing internal testing and product validation, with a focus on identifying defects earlier in the development phase [5] - The company has indicated that it may take up to 18 months for these changes to result in reduced warranty claims and improved product reliability [5] Sales Performance - Ford reported a year-over-year sales increase of 14.2% in the U.S. during Q2 2025, reaching 612,095 units, driven by strong demand for pickups [6] - F-Series sales grew by 11.5% to 222,459 units, marking the best Q2 since 2019 [6] - The Maverick recorded a record quarter with 48,041 units sold, with nearly 60% of buyers being new to the Ford brand [7] Market Context - The EV market is experiencing a slowdown, with Tesla seeing a nearly 14% drop in deliveries during Q2, potentially providing Ford with more time to generate revenue from gas-powered vehicles [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in investment ratings for the EV and solar industries, with a more favorable outlook for energy storage systems (ESS) and critical minerals compared to solar and wind [16]. Core Insights - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" accelerates the phaseout of EV subsidies, expiring on September 30, 2025, compared to December 31, 2032, under the original IRA [16]. - The report highlights stricter restrictions on foreign entities, particularly from China, affecting the eligibility for investment tax credits (ITC) and advanced manufacturing production credits (AMPC) [16][17]. - There is a notable increase in domestic content requirements to qualify for additional credits, which may impact the cost structure for manufacturers [16][17]. Summary by Sections Part 1: EV Consumer Tax Credits - The final assembly of EVs must occur in North America to qualify for tax credits, with a maximum credit of $7,500 [6]. - Key requirements include MSRP limits of $80,000 for SUVs and $50,000 for other vehicles, with critical minerals and battery component restrictions starting in 2024 and 2025 respectively [6][7]. Part 2: Residential Clean Energy Credit - The residential clean energy credit remains at 30% for expenditures through December 2032, decreasing to 26% in 2033 and 22% in 2034 [10]. - No credits will be available for expenditures made after December 31, 2034 [10]. Part 3: ITC - The business tax credit for investment in zero-emission power and energy storage property is set at 30% of capital expenditures, with additional bonuses for domestic content [12]. - The credit rate will phase out based on the date of construction start, with specific thresholds for solar and energy storage systems [12]. Part 4: Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit - The AMPC will phase out for eligible components produced and sold, with a stricter non-PFE threshold compared to the Senate draft [13]. - The report emphasizes that projects with "effective control" by prohibited foreign entities will not receive credits, impacting U.S. battery production using Chinese components [16][17]. Key Changes vs. IRA - The report outlines significant changes from the original IRA, including the introduction of PFE restrictions and a more stringent domestic content requirement for tax credits [16]. - The overall stance on China has become tougher, with implications for U.S. manufacturers relying on foreign supply chains [16].

Group 1: Ford's Current Situation - Ford's stock has been underperforming, leading to a reconsideration of its role in investment portfolios [2][7] - The company's Ford+ growth plan aims to revitalize its brand by focusing on three core areas: Ford Blue, Ford Model e, and Ford Pro [4] - Despite the strategy, wholesale sales in both Ford Blue and Ford Model e segments declined, with Ford Model e experiencing a 35% slump [5] Group 2: Financial Outlook and Risks - Ford's CFO indicated expectations for significant progress by 2025, but the uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to a suspension of guidance [6] - The potential decline in cash flow raises concerns about the sustainability of Ford's dividend payments [6] Group 3: Alternative Investment Opportunity - Healthpeak Properties is being considered as a replacement for Ford, offering a diversified portfolio of healthcare properties [8] - The REIT benefits from strong demand and stable cash flow, with expected income growth of 3% to 4% annually [9] - Healthpeak Properties currently offers an attractive dividend yield of over 6.6%, supported by a low payout ratio and a strong balance sheet [10][11]

Market Overview - U.S. markets have experienced a significant rally, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite reaching new all-time highs, driven primarily by the tech sector and speculative assets like Bitcoin [1][4] - Despite the market surge, the macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing tariff policies and low consumer sentiment [2][5] Target Corporation - Target's stock has seen a substantial decline of 24% year-to-date, with Q1 2025 results showing a 2.8% decrease in total net sales and a 3.8% decline in comparable sales [8][9] - The company's current P/E ratio of 11.28 is 32% lower than its 10-year average, indicating potential undervaluation [9] - Digital sales have shown growth, with a 4.7% increase, and the same-day delivery service, Target Circle 360, has grown by 36%, suggesting a possible turnaround if the digital transition is successful [10] Ford Motor Company - Ford has withdrawn its full-year guidance for 2025 amid tariff pressures and challenges in its EV division, but recent Q1 2025 revenue of $40.66 billion exceeded analyst expectations [11][12] - The company's P/E ratio of 9.39 is significantly below its historical average, presenting a potential entry point for investors [14] - Ford's stock has increased by 14% in the last 30 days, and it offers a dividend yield of over 5% [14] MGM Resorts International - MGM Resorts has seen positive consumer sentiment in Macau, with plans to increase gaming capacity by 36% over the next decade [15] - The company's Q1 2025 EPS of $0.69 surpassed estimates, although revenue fell by 2.4% year-over-year [16] - MGM's stock has risen 16% in the last month and 26% over the past three months, yet it still trades at a discount compared to its five-year P/E average of 19.99 [17]

Core Insights - Maria Ford, President of U.S. Commercial & Industrial Sales at DEWALT, has joined the Forbes Business Development Council to share insights on the construction industry and empower the next generation of tradespeople [1][7] Company Overview - DEWALT is a brand under Stanley Black & Decker, recognized as a leader in total jobsite solutions, providing tools and technologies designed to enhance safety and productivity on construction sites [9] Leadership and Advocacy - Ford has a strong background in the industry, having started her career at Stanley Black & Decker in 1998 and progressively taking on more responsibilities in sales and marketing [5] - She is a vocal advocate for skilled trades, actively inspiring future workers through speeches, op-eds, and media engagements [4] Financial Impact - Ford oversees DEWALT's U.S. Commercial & Industrial Sales division, which generates $2 billion in revenue, focusing on empowering professionals through advanced tools and technology solutions [6]

瑞银：将福特汽车(F.N)目标价从9美元上调至11美元。 ...

Group 1 - BYD reported a value of 1360.61 with a decrease of 21.7% [2] - Ferrari's value is 887.78, showing a decrease of 13.15% [2] - Mercedes-Benz has a value of 597.78, with no percentage change reported [2] - BMW's value increased by 1.19% to 566.63 [2] Group 2 - Volkswagen's value is 537.15, reflecting a decrease of 0.48% [3] - General Motors reported a value of 513.31, with an increase of 2.3% [3] - Ford's value decreased by 5.16% to 468.44 [3] - Maruti Suzuki's value is 461.17, showing a decrease of 2.36% [3] - Porsche's value decreased by 6.5% to 444.88 [3] - Mahindra Automotive's value is 441.38, with a decrease of 13.28% [3] - Honda's value is 421.94, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.55% [3] - Hyundai's value increased by 21.73% to 373.36 [3] - Stellantis reported a value of 305.14, with a decrease of 9.08% [3] - Seres' value is 296.65, showing a decrease of 4.03% [3] - Tata Motors reported a value of 294.36, with a decrease of 7.21% [3] - Kia's value increased by 3.72% to 291.71 [3] - SAIC Motor's value is 284.62, reflecting an increase of 9.68% [3] - Li Auto's value is 280.63, with an increase of 4.66% [3] - Geely's value is 227.12, reflecting an increase of 1.29% [3] - Great Wall Motors reported a value of 226.47, with a slight increase of 0.11% [3] - Suzuki Japan's value is 220.92, showing an increase of 2.36% [3] - Xpeng's value is 165.68, reflecting a decrease of 0.28% [3] Group 3 - Changan Automobile's value is 156.36, with a slight increase of 0.12% [4] - Rivian's value is 156.09, showing a decrease of 3.48% [4] - Renault's value is 138.89, reflecting a decrease of 2.23% [4] - Subaru's value is 129.85, with an increase of 1.62% [4] - JAC's value is 119.19, with an increase of 0.49% [4] - Hozon Auto's value is 105.63, showing a decrease of 1.14% [4] - Isuzu's value is 93.51, with an increase of 0.58% [4] - GAC Group's value is 88.01, reflecting a decrease of 0.83% [4] - Leapmotor's value is 85.88, with no percentage change reported [4] - Weimi Auto's value is 83.69, showing an increase of 4.51% [4] - Ford Otosan's value is 83.18, reflecting a decrease of 0.92% [4] - VinFast Auto's value is 83.03, with an increase of 0.47% [4] - Nissan's value is 75.25, reflecting an increase of 2.18% [4] - Lucid Motors' value is 69.85, showing a decrease of 1.22% [4] - Zeekr's value is 69.83, with an increase of 0.84% [4]