Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US automotive industry**, particularly the performance and outlook for **2026** [1] - The analysis includes insights on **D3 automakers** (Ford, GM, and Stellantis) and **US suppliers** [2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Performance Expectations**: US autos are expected to outperform the S&P 500 by **9%** for D3, **8%** for US suppliers, and **8%** for US autos during the trough to trend cycle phase [3] - **BEV Sales Decline**: The mix of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) is projected to decrease to **5-6%** of total sales in 2026 from **8%** in 2025, with unit sales down approximately **33%** year-over-year due to the removal of the leasing loophole [2][4] - **New Launch Volumes**: New launch volumes in North America are expected to drop significantly, particularly for D3 automakers, with a **54%** year-over-year decline anticipated in 2026 [6] - **Emerging Risks**: Suppliers face risks as their traditional customer base in Europe loses market share to Chinese OEMs [8] Additional Important Insights - **Chinese OEM Growth**: The growth gap between domestic Chinese OEMs and multinational foreign OEMs is expected to narrow in 2026 compared to 2025, potentially reducing headwinds for US automakers [11] - **CEO Changes**: Speculation exists regarding potential CEO changes within major automakers, particularly GM [14] - **USMCA Negotiations**: Ongoing negotiations may lead to higher US content requirements for vehicles, which could introduce new tariffs as headwinds for the automotive sector [14] - **Supply Chain Pressures**: Increased pressure on the supply base may lead to higher distress levels and potential bankruptcies, impacting costs for OEMs and suppliers [14] Valuation Metrics - **Ford Motor Company**: Target price of **$12.50**, with a market cap of **$54.4 billion** and an EV/EBITDA of **4.2x** for 2025E [15] - **General Motors Company**: Target price of **$97**, with a market cap of **$79.5 billion** and an EV/EBITDA of **4.5x** for 2025E [15] - **Tesla, Inc.**: Current share price of **$480.44**, with a market cap of **$1.69 trillion** and an EV/EBITDA of **123.1x** for 2025E [15] Stock Performance - Recent stock performance shows varied results, with **GM** and **Rivian** showing significant gains over the past year, while **Tesla** and **Carvana** have faced declines [19][21] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the automotive industry's performance, challenges, and future outlook.

Ford’s Electric Vehicle Disaster and CopperFord Motor Company (NYSE: F), the 121-year-old car maker, announced a $19.5 billion write off of its electric vehicle (EV) segment. That’s an enormous amount of cash to send to money heaven.This was bad news for the U.S. EV market. Ford targeted electric trucks, to capitalize on its super popular F-150 model. However, the government killed the EV tax break. That curbed interest of U.S. car buyers on the higher end EV models like trucks.But don’t think Ford’s proble ...

【文/观察者网 潘昱辰 编辑/高莘】2025年即将结束之际，因特朗普新政策而摇摇欲坠的美国电动汽车 行业再遭打击。就在一周前，福特汽车宣布因重组电动汽车业务减记195亿美元电动汽车，并停止以F- 150 Lightning为代表的多款电动车型项目；几乎同一时间，大众汽车宣布其电动巴士ID.Buzz因需求不 足，明年将不再向美国市场进口这款车型。 据《华尔街日报》报道，随着汽车行业转型浪潮的到来，传统车企曾一度以特斯拉为目标，将一些代表 燃油车生活方式的经典车型以电动化形式呈现，并将其视作重振品牌荣耀的关键。然而在市场的残酷现 实面前，这些曾被传统车企寄予厚望的所谓"特斯拉杀手"们，如今正深陷泥潭难以自拔。 "电动车主不需要" 《华尔街日报》认为，在福特宣布电动汽车业务重组并停止诸多项目之际，F-150 Lightning电动皮卡无 疑是最令人遗憾的一款。这款曾被寄予厚望的车型被叫停，不仅是给福特首席执行官吉姆·法利的一记 重拳，更是对电动汽车在美国发展前景这一理念的又一次打击。而福特电动车型失败最为根本的原因， 是其始终未能满足大多数客户的期望。 但Strategic Vision总裁亚历山大·爱德华兹表示， ...

原标题：欧盟调整"禁燃令"，减排承诺"打折"背后的汽车产业困境 据新华社报道，欧盟日前公布的"汽车一揽子方案"中，将原定2035年起新车实现"100%零排放"的目 标，降低为"减排90%"。这一调整被视为欧盟在其气候目标与产业现实之间的不得已妥协。 几乎在同一时间，太平洋彼岸的底特律，福特汽车宣布为其电动化进程展开一场残酷清算：一次性计提 高达195亿美元的损失，并正式停产曾被寄予厚望的电动旗舰车型F-150 Lightning。 两件看似独立的事件，共同敲响了欧美"汽车电动化减排"的退堂鼓。欧盟的妥协，源于对本土产业竞争 力失守的深切焦虑；而福特面对的，则是"卖一辆亏一辆"的商业现实。 在欧美因电动汽车的竞争力低落而不得不降低其减排目标、或者改变发展策略的同时，已在全球市场建 立起明显优势的中国新能源汽车，是否迎来了更有利的发展窗口？ 推动这场"撤退"的核心力量，恰恰是欧洲汽车工业界自身。欧洲汽车制造商协会（ACEA）是转向的最 主要游说者，其理由直指现实困境：欧盟企业生产的电动车，销量远未达预期；欧盟各国充电基础设施 建设严重滞后；以及对外依赖度过高的供应链。更为紧迫的是，首个惩罚性考核节点（2025年碳 ...

据新华社报道，欧盟日前公布的"汽车一揽子方案"中，将原定2035年起新车实现"100%零排放"的目 标，降低为"减排90%"。这一调整被视为欧盟在其气候目标与产业现实之间的不得已妥协。 几乎在同一时间，太平洋彼岸的底特律，福特汽车宣布为其电动化进程展开一场残酷清算：一次性计提 高达195亿美元的损失，并正式停产曾被寄予厚望的电动旗舰车型F-150 Lightning。 两件看似独立的事件，共同敲响了欧美"汽车电动化减排"的退堂鼓。欧盟的妥协，源于对本土产业竞争 力失守的深切焦虑；而福特面对的，则是"卖一辆亏一辆"的商业现实。 在欧美因电动汽车的竞争力低落而不得不降低其减排目标、或者改变发展策略的同时，已在全球市场建 立起明显优势的中国新能源汽车，是否迎来了更有利的发展窗口？ 欧盟"食言"背后的产业困境 欧盟2035年"禁燃令"的诞生与动摇再次说明，没有坚实的产业支撑，美丽的环保理想难免变成"空头支 票"。最初，它作为欧盟"Fit for 55"减排计划的核心支柱，以不容置喙的姿态，试图用明确的时间红 线，倒逼资本和研发资源投入零排放汽车。然而，从2023年的立法通过到2025年底的实质性放宽，短短 两年间，政 ...

Authored by Gary Abernathy of the Empowerment Alliance via RealClearEnergy,The Christmas season is upon us, a time of year when many of us reflect on the year that is drawing to a close and on the good times, the sad times, and the challenges ahead. It’s also a time of year when we count our blessings and express gratitude for any good things that have come our way.While some may realize it more than others, all Americans should be grateful for one thing most of us tend to take for granted – light that appe ...

Ford Motor Company (F) closed the most recent trading day at $13.29, moving -1.26% from the previous trading session. This change lagged the S&P 500's 0.46% gain on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.17%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.57%. The company's stock has climbed by 3.86% in the past month, falling short of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 18.47% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.22%.The upcoming earnings release of Ford Motor Company will be of great interest to investors. The compa ...

Car buyers, faced with the prospect of higher prices due to increased tariffs, flocked to dealership lots during the first half of the year to secure a purchase before the higher prices took effect. Car sellers, looking to capitalize on the increased demand, offered more incentives to buyers to keep them coming to dealership lots. U.S. 2025 new-vehicle sales forecast GM: 2.83 million vehicles (+5.1% year over year); 17.3% market share Toyota: 2.52 million vehicles (+8.4% YoY); 15.5% market share Ford ...

Key Takeaways GM leads U.S. auto sales, driven by pickups and SUVs across Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac.GM logged about $2B in software revenues YTD, while deferred software revenues jumped over 90% to $5B by Q3.Ford is resetting its EV strategy. It expects $19.5B in special items and targets Model e breakeven by 2029.General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) have long been fierce rivals in the American auto industry—but which stock looks like the better investment now? Both automakers have been resilient and w ...

Market Trends & Economic Indicators - Gold prices hit a record high, up 70% this year, with 50 record highs this year [1] - Copper prices also reached a record high, increasing by 30% this year, driven by AI data center usage [2] - US holiday retail spending increased by 42% year-over-year across all payment types [3] - Gas prices hit a 4-year low average nationwide ahead of the holiday travel rush [2] - Strong GDP print of 43% leads to uncertainty about future rate cuts [5] Fintech & Investment Opportunities - Fintech valuations are reflecting a negative scenario, potentially creating investment opportunities [9] - Consumer spending is supportive during the holiday season, impacting fintech [8] - Some fintech business models, like Block and PayPal, are seen as mature [11] - Dave, a neo bank providing short-term loans, shows promise in meeting consumer financial needs [12][13] Automotive Industry & Ford's Strategy - Ford's stock is up 36% year-to-date, despite a $195 billion charge tied to EV plans [30] - Ford CEO Jim Farley highlights a shortage of 400000 repair technicians across the economy, with 6000 bays in Ford dealerships without technicians [33][38] - Ford faces a $2 billion net tariff impact, hindering further US investments [49] - Ford acknowledges that customers are not interested in $75000 EVs and is shifting focus to more affordable EVs [53][54] AI & Technology - The market is pricing in tech and the S&P at 23%, but expectations are adjusted down to 18% [16][17] - Software names like Salesforce and Intuit may benefit from AI [17] - HUT 8's deal with Enthropic and Fluid Stack, backed by Google, indicates strong demand for AI infrastructure [22] - Service Now will acquire cyber security startup Armis in a $775 billion deal to expand its cyber security offerings amid the AI boom [28]