Group 1: Company Performance Expectations - Home Depot (HD.US) is expected to report a first-quarter sales increase of 8% year-over-year, reaching $39.26 billion, while Lowe's (LOW.US) is projected to see a 2% decline in revenue to $20.95 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share for Home Depot are anticipated to decrease to $3.56, and for Lowe's, to $2.87 [1] - Analysts are generally optimistic, with 11 out of 13 analysts rating Home Depot as "buy" or equivalent, and 10 out of 15 analysts rating Lowe's as "buy" [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights and Market Conditions - UBS analysts do not expect any significant surprises in the first-quarter results but remain positive on the stocks due to stable demand and potential improvement in the housing market later this year [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts view these retailers as "high-quality barometers" and expect them to maintain previous annual forecasts, although they may widen guidance ranges to reflect uncertainties [2] - Concerns over consumer spending due to tariff uncertainties have led to a downgrade in same-store sales forecasts for both Home Depot and Lowe's [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - Walmart (WMT.US) reported solid quarterly sales but indicated that tariffs and economic volatility would lead to price increases, creating pressure on competitors like Home Depot and Lowe's [3] - Recent performance from consumer-facing companies has been weak, with several firms lowering annual forecasts amid demand fluctuations and economic uncertainty [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a steady recovery, led by the technology sector, with the S&P 500 rising by 5.3% and the Nasdaq increasing by 7.2% [3] - Significant capital inflows have been observed, particularly in the semiconductor and automotive sectors, indicating strong investor interest [4] - Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 constituents have been slightly adjusted upwards, with traditional industries showing the most significant upward revisions [5] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 increased by 5.3% and the Nasdaq by 7.2% this week, with the automotive and semiconductor sectors leading the gains at +16.2% and +13.3% respectively [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital inflows for the S&P 500 constituents reached +$25.71 billion this week, a significant increase from the previous week's +$2.99 billion [4] - The semiconductor sector saw the highest inflow at +$9.17 billion, followed by automotive at +$6.59 billion [18] Earnings Forecasts - The dynamic F12M EPS expectations for the S&P 500 were adjusted up by 0.1%, with 19 sectors seeing upward revisions, particularly real estate (+0.7%) and materials (+0.5%) [5]

Group 1: Walmart's Performance - Walmart's results showed better-than-expected comparable sales, with its domestic e-commerce business becoming profitable for the first time [1] - The 'general merchandise' category faced slight negative comps, particularly in electronics, home, and sporting goods, although there was positive momentum in toys, automotive, and kids apparel [2][3] - Walmart's ability to provide guidance amidst operational uncertainty is a positive sign for investors [1] Group 2: Target's Challenges - Target's shares have significantly underperformed, losing over 25% of their value this year, while Walmart's shares have increased by more than 8% [5] - Target is expected to report a decline in EPS by 17.2% year-over-year, with same-store sales projected to decrease by 1.7% [5] - Target's vulnerability to global trade issues is greater than Walmart's, as Walmart sources two-thirds of its merchandise domestically [6] Group 3: Home Improvement Retailers - Home Depot and Lowe's are facing challenges due to high interest rates affecting the housing market, which is impacting discretionary spending on home improvement [10][11] - Home Depot is expected to report a slight decline in EPS of 1.1% year-over-year, while Lowe's is projected to see a decline of 1.99% in comps [14][15] - The overall operating environment for home improvement retailers remains difficult, with a focus on repair and replacement rather than new projects [13] Group 4: Retail Sector Overview - The retail sector has seen a 16.7% increase in total Q1 earnings for 21 retailers in the S&P 500, with 57.1% beating EPS estimates [18] - The earnings growth for the sector is significantly influenced by Amazon, with the group outside of Amazon showing a decline in earnings despite revenue growth [20][22] - The overall earnings picture for the retail sector indicates a stabilization trend, although estimates for Q2 have been cut more than usual [35][39]

Group 1 - Home Depot is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on May 20, 2025, with anticipated earnings of $3.59 per share and revenue of $39.16 billion, indicating a 1% decline in earnings year-over-year and an 8% increase in sales compared to the previous year [1] - The company's current market capitalization stands at $370 billion, with $160 billion in revenue, $22 billion in operating profit, and a net income of $15 billion over the last twelve months [2] - Historical data shows that Home Depot's stock has fallen 55% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median drop of 2.5% in one day and a maximum decline of 9% observed [1][2] Group 2 - Home Depot's business model is challenged by its reliance on global sourcing, particularly from China, Canada, and Mexico, which exposes it to trade interruptions and tariffs [2] - The company has recorded 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns occurring roughly 45% of the time [5] - The median of the 9 positive returns is 1.7%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -2.5% [5] Group 3 - For event-driven traders, historical patterns can provide an advantage, allowing for preparation ahead of earnings or response to post-release movements [2] - A less risky approach involves examining the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identifying pairs with the highest correlation for trading strategies [3] - The performance of peers may influence Home Depot's post-earnings reaction, with pricing potentially beginning prior to the earnings announcement [6]

Core Insights - Home Depot is expected to report quarterly earnings of $3.59 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.1% [1] - Revenue projections stand at $39.33 billion, indicating an 8% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.4% higher in the last 30 days, showing analysts' reevaluation of their initial estimates [1] Earnings Estimates and Market Performance - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock [2] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price performance [2] Key Metrics Projections - Analysts predict the 'Number of stores - Retail' will reach 2,350, up from 2,337 a year ago [4] - The 'Number of customer transactions - Retail' is expected to be 390.80 million, compared to 386.8 million in the same quarter last year [4] - The 'Average ticket - Retail' is projected to be $91.74, an increase from $90.68 reported in the same quarter last year [5] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Home Depot shares have recorded a return of +7.8%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +9% change [5] - Based on its Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), Home Depot is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the upcoming period [5]

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot is expected to report first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 20, with anticipated revenue growth of 8% year over year, reaching $39.3 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decline by 1.1% to $3.59 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a positive earnings surprise trend over the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.6% and a 3% surprise in the last quarter [2]. - Home Depot's Earnings ESP stands at -0.32% with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [3][4]. Market Trends - The first-quarter results are expected to reflect continued top-line recovery, driven by SRS contributions, broad-based category growth, and positive Pro sales [5]. - Comparable store sales are predicted to increase by 3.8%, with a 2.1% rise in customer transactions and a 1.4% increase in average ticket size [7]. Strategic Initiatives - Home Depot is advancing its "One Home Depot" plan, focusing on supply-chain expansion, technology investments, and digital enhancements to ensure a seamless shopping experience [6]. - The interconnected retail model and strong tech infrastructure have bolstered web traffic and supported the development of a scalable Pro ecosystem [7]. Challenges - The company faces challenges from softened demand in high-ticket discretionary categories and macroeconomic pressures, including elevated interest rates affecting consumer behavior [8][9]. - Operating income is expected to increase by only 0.7%, with a decline in operating margin by 90 basis points [10]. Stock Performance - Home Depot's shares have gained 8.8% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 and the Retail-Wholesale sector, which grew by 17.6% and 10.9%, respectively [11]. - The stock currently trades at a forward P/E multiple of 24.15X, above the industry average of 21.42X and the S&P 500's average of 21.59X, indicating a premium valuation [16]. Investment Outlook - Home Depot's long-term outlook remains solid due to its leadership in the home improvement sector and execution of its strategic initiatives, although near-term headwinds may limit growth potential [19][21]. - The company is well-positioned to meet evolving consumer demands, but investors may need to remain cautious in the short term due to ongoing economic pressures [21][24].

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot is set to report its earnings on May 20, 2025, with expectations of a slight decline in EPS but an increase in revenue compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The predicted EPS for the upcoming earnings report is $3.59, reflecting a 1.1% decline from the same quarter last year [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projected at $39.33 billion, which represents an 8.01% increase from the year-ago period [2]. - For the entire year, the forecasted earnings are $15 per share, indicating a -1.57% change, while revenue is expected to be $163.75 billion, showing a +2.66% change compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Analyst Estimates and Stock Performance - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Home Depot are crucial for investors, as they reflect the latest business trends and can indicate a favorable outlook on the company's health and profitability [3][4]. - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, provides actionable ratings, with 1 stocks historically delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - Home Depot is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 25.1, which is higher than the industry average of 20.47, indicating a premium valuation [6]. - The company has a PEG ratio of 3.56, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 2.43, suggesting that Home Depot's valuation is also elevated in terms of expected earnings growth [7]. Group 4: Industry Context - The Retail - Home Furnishings industry, which includes Home Depot, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 212, placing it in the bottom 15% of over 250 industries [8].

Core Insights - The retail sector is currently under scrutiny as major retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's, and Target prepare to report their earnings [1] Earnings Performance - 20 out of 33 retailers in the S&P 500 Index have reported earnings, showing a 20.2% increase in earnings compared to the same period last year, with revenues up by 6.9%. 55% of these companies exceeded EPS estimates, while 45% surpassed revenue estimates. The overall retail sector is projected to achieve earnings growth of 20.1% and revenue growth of 7% [2] ETF Performance - Traditional retail ETFs are gaining attention, with SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH) increasing by approximately 13.3% and 9.8% respectively over the past month [3] Individual Retailer Insights - Walmart has an Earnings ESP of -1.76% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with a slight negative earnings estimate revision. The company has an average earnings surprise of 7.36% over the last four quarters and is set to report on May 15 [5] - Home Depot has an Earnings ESP of +0.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with no revisions in earnings estimates. The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters is 2.56%, and it will report on May 20 [6] - Lowe's has an Earnings ESP of -0.16% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with no revisions in earnings estimates. The average earnings surprise is 3.89%, and it is scheduled to report on May 21 [7] - Target has an Earnings ESP of -2.45% and a Zacks Rank of 4, with a negative earnings estimate revision. The average earnings surprise is 1.48%, and it will report on May 21 [8] - Nordstrom has an Earnings ESP of -25.37% and a Zacks Rank of 2, with no revisions in earnings estimates. The average earnings surprise is -26.1%, and it is set to report on May 29 [9] - Kohl's has an Earnings ESP of +35.91% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with a positive earnings estimate revision. The average earnings surprise is -166.43%, and it will report on May 29 [10] ETF Details - SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) tracks the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, holding 76 diversified stocks with no single stock exceeding 2% of the total. It has an asset under management (AUM) of $437.7 million and an average trading volume of 7 million shares [11][12] - VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH) tracks the MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index, focusing on the 26 largest retail firms. It has an AUM of $239.6 million and trades an average of 6,000 shares daily [13][14]

The market expects Home Depot (HD) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended April 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on M ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between CEOs of major U.S. retailers and President Trump highlights concerns over the impact of U.S. tariff policies on their import-dependent business models, especially in the context of rising consumer demand for low-priced goods after years of high inflation [1][3][5]. Group 1: Retailers' Concerns - Major retailers, including Walmart and Target, have expressed that Trump's tariff policies could lead to increased prices for consumers, further complicating an already challenging economic environment [1][3]. - Walmart's CFO indicated that approximately two-thirds of the products sold in the U.S. are domestically produced, while the remaining third is imported, with China and Mexico being key suppliers [3]. - Retailers are actively seeking ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including relocating production to countries with lower tariff burdens, such as India and Vietnam, although this process is expected to take several years [3][5]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - Trump's recent comments suggest a potential reconsideration of the high tariffs imposed on China, indicating a shift in his stance possibly influenced by the warnings from retail executives regarding supply chain disruptions [5][7]. - The urgency of addressing inflation is not only an economic issue but also a political one for Trump, as upcoming elections will heavily focus on economic performance [7].