以下是华住集团 FY25 Q1 的财报电话会纪要，财报解读请移步《量价齐跌！华住还能深蹲起跳么？ - LongPort》 一、财报核心信息回顾 2.1 高管陈述核心信息 1、市场趋势与运营表现 RevPAR 承压：同比下降3.9%，ADR 降2.6%，入住率降1%，主因 2024 年行业供给集中释放。 2、网络扩张与储备 | | Huazhu Group results wrap | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rmb '00mm 1Q19 2Q19 | 3Q19 4Q19 1Q28 2023 | 3023 | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 1Q25E | var. | | Total revenue 23.9 | 28.6 30.6 29.1 44.8 55.3 | 62.9 | 55.9 | 52.8 | 61.5 | 64.4 | 60.2 | 54.0 | 54.9 | -1.7% | | yoy 14 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue of 5.4 billion yuan represents a 2.2% year-on-year increase, aligning with the guidance of 0%-4% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA and net profit for Q1 2025 were 1.5 billion yuan and 780 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 5.3% and 0.5% respectively [7] - The domestic hotel segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of 1.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.7% increase year-on-year [7] - The company has a robust membership system and an attractive investment return model, which is expected to attract more franchisees and accelerate store expansion [7] Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 21.882 billion yuan for 2023, with a projected growth of 9% in 2024 and 5% in 2025 [3] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at 3.926 billion yuan, representing a 29% increase compared to 2024 [3] - The company’s gross margin improved to 33.2% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The total number of domestic hotels reached 11,564, marking a 19.4% increase, with a net addition of 539 hotels in Q1 2025 [7] Market Position - The company’s current stock price is 28.7 HKD, with a market capitalization of 174.1 billion HKD [4] - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 29.0% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 82.7% [4] - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 1%-5% in Q2 2025, with domestic hotel revenue projected to grow by 3%-7% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][16] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings that met expectations, with total revenue of 5.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [6] - The domestic hotel segment generated revenue of 4.5 billion RMB, up 5.5% year-on-year, exceeding the previously announced guidance [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its mid-range and high-end hotel brands while maintaining a core structure of economy and mid-range hotels [6] - The overall hotel occupancy rate slightly declined due to a significant increase in supply, while overseas hotel performance improved [6] - Membership and central reservation contributions are on the rise, with the overseas segment accelerating its asset-light transformation [6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 4.599 billion RMB and 5.258 billion RMB respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 21,882 million RMB (2023), 23,891 million RMB (2024), 24,466 million RMB (2025E), 25,434 million RMB (2026E), and 26,402 million RMB (2027E) [5][7] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 4,599 million RMB, with a growth rate of 50% year-on-year [5] - The company anticipates a gross margin improvement from 34% in 2023 to 38% in 2027 [5][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term disruptions due to industry cycles but is focusing on high-quality expansion and internal improvements. The first quarter revenue met expectations, with hotel operating revenue around 22.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and total revenue of approximately 5.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1][11] - The company aims to maintain a balance between expansion and internal strengthening, with a focus on high-quality growth despite uncertainties in the environment [5][19] Summary by Sections Domestic Hotels - In Q1, domestic revenue was 4.481 billion RMB, up 5.5% year-on-year, with direct-operated hotels down 9.4% and franchise hotels up 21.1%. The overall RevPAR decreased by 3.9%, with same-store RevPAR down 8.3% [2][16] - The company opened 694 new hotels and closed 155, with a total of 11,564 hotels by the end of Q1. The target for new openings in 2025 is approximately 2,300 hotels [2][16] Overseas Hotels - Q1 overseas revenue was 918 million RMB, down 11.3%, with direct-operated revenue down 11.2%. The company is transitioning 10 direct-operated hotels to a light-asset franchise model, which has impacted short-term performance [3][17] - The adjusted EBITDA for overseas operations was -77 million RMB, indicating increased losses primarily due to the transition to a light-asset model and restructuring efforts [3][17] Future Outlook - The company expects Q2 revenue growth of 1-5%, with domestic growth of 3-7% and franchise revenue growth of 18-22%. The management anticipates a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2, aiming for at least flat or growth for the year [4][18] - The company continues to focus on brand upgrades, member direct sales, and light-asset strategies, with a significant portion of its hotels in lower-tier cities [4][18] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are 4.66 billion, 5.37 billion, and 6.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a CAGR of 18%. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times for the respective years [5][19][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term disruptions due to industry cycles but is focusing on high-quality expansion and internal improvements. The first quarter revenue met expectations, with hotel operating revenue around 22.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and total revenue of approximately 5.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1][11] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 1-5% in Q2, with domestic segments expected to grow by 3-7% and franchise revenue by 18-22%. The management anticipates a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2, with a goal of at least maintaining or growing throughout the year [4][18] Summary by Sections Domestic Hotels - In Q1, domestic revenue was 4.481 billion RMB, up 5.5% year-on-year. Direct-operated hotels saw a decline of 9.4%, while franchise revenue increased by 21.1%. The overall RevPAR decreased by 3.9%, with same-store RevPAR down by 8.3% [2][16] - The company opened 694 new hotels and closed 155, with a total of 11,564 hotels by the end of Q1. The company plans to open approximately 2,300 new hotels throughout the year [2][16] Overseas Hotels - Q1 overseas revenue was 918 million RMB, down 11.3%. The decline was primarily due to the transition of 10 direct-operated hotels to a light-asset franchise model and the closure of one direct-operated hotel. The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was -77 million RMB, indicating an increase in losses due to restructuring [3][17] Financial Forecasts - The company maintains adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 4.66 billion, 5.37 billion, and 6.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a three-year CAGR of 18%. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times for the respective years [5][19] - The company has a shareholder return plan of 2 billion USD over three years, which adds marginal appeal to the investment [5][19]

Core Insights - H World Group Limited (HTHT) reported first-quarter 2025 results with earnings and revenues missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, although both metrics increased year-over-year [1][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 were 34 cents, missing the consensus estimate of 42 cents by 19.1%, compared to 29 cents in the prior-year quarter [3] - Quarterly revenues reached $744 million, falling short of the consensus mark of $754 million by 1.3%, but representing a 1.8% increase from $731 million in the same quarter last year [3] - Selling, General and Administrative expenses were $104 million, significantly higher than $36 million reported in the prior-year quarter [4] - The operating margin improved by 110 basis points year-over-year to 20.1%, driven by higher revenue contributions from manachised and franchised businesses [4] - Adjusted EBITDA was $206 million, reflecting a 4.6% increase from the previous year's figure [4] Balance Sheet - As of March 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at $1.1 billion, up from $818 million in the prior-year quarter [5] - Long-term debt increased to $609 million from $228 million reported in Q1 2024 [5] Business Operations - H World operated a global network of 11,685 hotels with a total of 1,142,158 rooms as of March 31, 2025, including 11,564 properties under the Legacy-Huazhu brand and 121 under Legacy-DH [6] - In Q1 2025, the Legacy-Huazhu segment added 694 new hotels, with 692 under the manachised and franchised model, while closing 155 properties [6] - The company maintains a robust development pipeline of 2,888 unopened hotels, with 2,865 from Legacy-Huazhu and 23 from Legacy-DH [6] Strategic Outlook - The company expressed a cautious stance regarding persistent tariff challenges and broader macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - H World emphasized its asset-light strategy, focusing on high-quality network expansion, strengthened brand positioning, service excellence, and enhanced sales capabilities through its H Rewards membership program to drive growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huazhu Group reported a revenue of 5.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, while hotel operating revenue reached 22.5 billion yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 894 million yuan, a 35.7% increase year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Huazhu Group's average daily rate (ADR) was 272 yuan, down 2.9% year-on-year, and the average revenue per available room (RevPAR) was 208 yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year. The occupancy rate (OCC) for all operating hotels was 76.2%, a decrease from 77.2% in the same period last year [3][4] - The company opened 694 new hotels and closed 155, with 2,865 hotels in the pipeline, slightly down from the previous quarter. The focus is on high-quality growth, emphasizing profitability over scale [4] Market Dynamics - The business travel market has shown slow recovery over the past two years, with external factors like US-China tariffs impacting small and export-oriented enterprises, creating uncertainty for the company's RevPAR forecasts [4] - Despite challenges, the company maintains a positive outlook on the consumption and tourism market, expecting a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2 2025 and aiming for sustained growth throughout the year [4] Strategic Focus - Huazhu Group is upgrading its "Golden Triangle" brands, with a significant increase in the proportion of higher-rated products. The number of mid-to-high-end hotels increased by 36% year-on-year to 933, with 523 more in the pipeline [5] - The company aims to capture market share in the mid-to-high-end segment, particularly in first- and second-tier cities, viewing this as a critical area for growth and brand development [5] - Revenue for Q2 2025 is projected to grow between 1% to 5%, with management and franchise income expected to rise by 18% to 22% [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 33.5, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 28.70 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 5.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and a net profit of RMB 890 million, up 35.7% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 1.5 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase [7]. - The company is focusing on a light-asset strategy, with rental and owned income accounting for 51.7% of total revenue, while management franchise and licensing contributed 46.3% [3][7]. - The overall hotel count reached 11,685, with 11,564 under the main brand and 121 under the DH division, indicating a net addition of 539 hotels in the reporting period [7]. - The gross margin improved by 0.74 percentage points to 33.2%, driven by the light-asset strategy, while the expense ratio decreased by 0.72 percentage points to 14.46% [7]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in RevPAR as the peak season approaches, despite short-term pressures from competition and economic factors [7]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 3.68 billion, RMB 4.22 billion, and RMB 4.84 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.6%, 15%, and 14.6% [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.20, RMB 1.38, and RMB 1.58 for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x, indicating reasonable valuation [9][12]. - The total revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 25.15 billion in 2025 to RMB 29.85 billion by 2027, reflecting a steady upward trend [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 33.5, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 28.70 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 5.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and a net profit of RMB 890 million, up 35.7% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 1.5 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase [7]. - The company is focusing on a light-asset strategy, with rental and owned income accounting for 51.7% of total revenue, while management franchise and licensing contributed 46.3% [3][7]. - The overall hotel count reached 11,685, with 11,564 under the main brand and 121 under the DH division, indicating a net addition of 539 hotels [7]. - The gross margin improved by 0.74 percentage points to 33.2%, driven by reduced operating costs due to the light-asset strategy [7]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in RevPAR as the peak season approaches, despite short-term pressures from competition and economic factors [7]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 3.68 billion, RMB 4.22 billion, and RMB 4.84 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.6%, 15%, and 14.6% [9][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.20, RMB 1.38, and RMB 1.58 for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x, indicating reasonable valuation [9][12]. - The company’s total revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 25.15 billion in 2025 to RMB 29.85 billion by 2027 [12].

新华财经上海5月21日电（谈瑞）随着华住集团在5月20日晚间发布2025年第一季度财报，中国酒店业三 大头部集团——锦江酒店、华住集团、首旅如家的经营分化格局愈加明朗。 在消费需求结构性调整、行业刚需竞争加剧的背景下，三家企业分别交出截然不同的答卷：华住集团凭 借轻资产战略逆势增长，锦江酒店规模扩张难掩盈利困境，首旅如家则通过成本控制实现利润突围。 华住强势增长，锦江净利骤降超八成 "2025年第一季度，酒店行业的供给增长仍未见边际放缓，但商务需求呈改善趋势。"中信证券消费行业 首席分析师姜娅在研报中表示，一季度，酒店行业RevPAR同比下降3.6%，较上一季度降低5.2%的水平 进一步收窄，其中平均价格下降2.3个百分点，平均入住率下降0.7个百分点。截至3月底，酒店数量同比 增长9.3%，客房数量同比增长8.8%，整体供给同比增速较2024年年底略有提升。 这一趋势在三大头部集团的财报数据上得到了充分印证。在RevPAR这一核心经营指标上，三大集团均 面临下滑压力，但程度差异较为显著。 根据行业协会统计数据，截至2024年底，中国国内酒店集团中，规模排名居前的依次是锦江酒店（客房 数129.1万间、门店数 ...