Summary of Hotel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The hotel industry, particularly two major groups (Huazhu and Jinjiang), has shown a strong recovery post-National Day, with RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) returning to positive year-on-year growth, even exceeding levels from 2024 [1][3][5]. - Business travel demand has significantly rebounded since May, with strong performance noted in July and August, surpassing last year's figures [1][6]. - The implementation of visa-free policies has led to a 120% year-on-year increase in overseas tourists spending in China, exceeding 2019 levels [1][7]. Key Performance Metrics - Huazhu's RevPAR has consistently remained between 95% and 99.6%, while Jinjiang's RevPAR improved to over 100% by the fourth week of October [1][3][4]. - Average Daily Rate (ADR) has remained stable compared to last year, indicating rational market competition among hotel groups [1][8]. - The overall hotel industry is expected to see a RevPAR growth of 3%-5% in 2026, with major hotel groups focusing on maintaining or increasing prices to meet budget targets [1][26]. Business Travel Insights - Business travel, which constitutes about 40%-42% of Huazhu's revenue, saw a decline of 6-10 percentage points in RevPAR during the first half of the year but has since recovered [1][12][6]. - The demand for business travel is anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase in the coming months [9]. Tourism Demand Analysis - The tourism market has shown significant growth, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, with a notable increase in foreign tourist numbers [1][7]. - Despite a slight decrease in per capita spending, the overall trend in domestic tourism remains optimistic [7]. Pricing Strategy and Market Dynamics - Hotel groups have refrained from price cuts to attract customers, focusing instead on long-term growth strategies [1][8]. - The expected budget increase for 2026 is around 3%-5%, indicating that prices are unlikely to decrease [26][27]. Competitive Landscape - Huazhu is expanding into lower-tier markets through localized development and strong operational strategies, particularly in Shenzhen and Guangzhou [4][31]. - The performance of small independent hotels is declining, with many facing operational challenges unless they join larger chains [16][19]. Future Outlook - The overall growth rate of the hotel industry is expected to slow down, with a projected growth of around 2% in 2026 [17]. - The focus will shift towards enhancing operational quality and efficiency rather than rapid expansion [19]. - The long-term outlook for the domestic tourism market remains positive, while the business market is influenced by both domestic and international factors [10]. Management Changes - Recent leadership changes in Jinjiang, including the return of a familiar figure to stabilize and refocus the business, are expected to positively impact future operations [34][36]. - Huazhu's management changes are not anticipated to significantly affect the company's strategic direction [33]. Conclusion - The hotel industry is on a recovery path with strong performance metrics, particularly in business and tourism sectors. The focus on maintaining pricing strategies and enhancing operational quality will be crucial for sustained growth in the coming years.

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a collective rise on November 10, with the Nasdaq leading the gains, closing up 2.27%, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 increased by 0.81% and 1.54% respectively [1] - The U.S. technology sector saw significant gains, with the Wind U.S. Technology Seven Giants Index rising nearly 3%, driven by strong performances from major companies like Nvidia (up over 5%), Google (up nearly 4%), and Tesla (up over 3%) [1] - Notable individual stock performance included SanDisk, which surged 11.89% to reach a historical high, marking an increase of over 400% year-to-date, attributed to AI-driven demand growth impacting traditional storage wafer manufacturers [1] Group 2 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also performed well, rising over 2%, with significant gains from companies such as XPeng Motors (up over 16%) and Artis Solar (up nearly 14%) [1] - The strong rebound in U.S. stocks is largely attributed to progress in the U.S. government avoiding a shutdown, with a temporary funding bill advancing in the Senate [1] - According to a report by Shenwan Hongyuan, the volatility in the U.S. stock market is linked to the potential government shutdown, which has tightened dollar liquidity, and the resolution of this issue could alleviate liquidity risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - H World Group-S (01179) shares have increased by over 5%, currently trading at 34.46 HKD with a transaction volume of 38.32 million HKD, following the announcement of an upcoming board meeting to review financial performance [1] Company Summary - H World Group-S will hold a board meeting on November 17, 2025, to review and approve the unaudited financial results for the three months ending September 30, 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley noted that the decline in RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) for the hotel industry has narrowed, primarily driven by better-than-expected performance in September [1] - The positive momentum observed in September is expected to continue into October and potentially sustain through the fourth quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that H World Group's third-quarter performance will exceed expectations, with a positive RevPAR trend and operational leverage benefits [1] - The firm has raised its RevPAR forecasts for H World Group for 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 2%, and expects RevPAR to turn positive in the fourth quarter [1] Industry Summary - The hotel industry's RevPAR decline has shown signs of improvement, with September's performance exceeding expectations, indicating a potential recovery trend [1] - The positive performance in September is expected to carry over into October and the fourth quarter, suggesting a favorable outlook for the industry [1]

Market Overview - The US Senate made significant progress on funding issues, leading to a collective rise in major US stock indices on Monday, with the Dow Jones up 0.81%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq Composite up 2.27% [1] - Market risk appetite has rebounded, with heavyweight AI stocks like Nvidia and Palantir leading the gains [1] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks saw widespread gains, with Nvidia rising 5.79%, adding $265 billion (approximately 1.89 trillion RMB) to its market capitalization [3] - Other notable performers included AMD up over 4%, Google and Tesla up over 3%, and Microsoft, Amazon, and Netflix up over 1% [3] Earnings Reports - CoreWeave reported Q3 revenue of $1.36 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.29 billion, with a net loss of $110.1 million, better than the anticipated loss of $299.6 million [5] - Occidental Petroleum's Q3 revenue was $6.717 billion, slightly above the market expectation of $6.679 billion [5] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 2.25%, with notable gains in Chinese stocks such as Xpeng Motors up over 16% and Baidu up over 5% [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the potential economic impact of maintaining high interest rates for too long, indicating a cooling labor market [9] - Morgan Stanley and other Wall Street firms maintain a bullish outlook on US stocks, citing strong corporate earnings growth as a driving factor for further market increases in 2026 [9] AI Sector Outlook - Analysts indicate that the "AI fundamental narrative" supporting the bull market remains intact, suggesting significant buying opportunities during market pullbacks [11] - UBS forecasts that the S&P 500 could reach a record 7,500 points by the end of 2026, reflecting an over 11% increase from current levels, driven largely by technology companies [10]

Group 1 - H World Group (HTHT) has shown strong year-to-date performance, returning 24.3%, significantly outperforming the average gain of 1.8% in the Consumer Discretionary sector [4] - The Zacks Rank for H World Group is 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook based on earnings estimates and revisions [3] - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for HTHT's full-year earnings has increased by 9%, reflecting improved analyst sentiment [4] Group 2 - H World Group is part of the Hotels and Motels industry, which has an average loss of 8.6% this year, highlighting HTHT's superior performance within its industry [6] - The Hotels and Motels industry is ranked 185 in the Zacks Industry Rank, indicating a relatively low position compared to other sectors [6] - In contrast, Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG), another outperforming stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, has returned 34.9% this year and belongs to the Leisure and Recreation Products industry, which is ranked 76 [5][6]

Core Insights - The core theme of the article revolves around Huazhu's 20-year journey in the hotel industry, emphasizing the need for supply-side reform as the biggest opportunity for the Chinese hotel sector [2][8][21] Company Overview - Huazhu has evolved over two decades, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term trends, and is now positioned to lead the industry towards supply-side reform [5][18] - The company has expanded its brand portfolio from a single brand, HanTing, to over thirty brands, serving more than 2 billion guests and driving nearly 300 billion yuan in industry investment [15][21] Industry Context - The global hotel industry is undergoing significant changes, with international capital acquiring quality hotel assets and local markets facing saturation and intense competition [6][8] - In China, only 25% of hotels are large-scale (40 rooms or more), compared to 95% in the U.S., indicating a structural imbalance in the hotel supply [8] Supply-Side Reform - The current state of the hotel industry in China is characterized by high-end luxury hotels and low-end budget inns struggling to achieve profitability, highlighting the urgent need for supply-side reform [8][9] - The concept of "involution" is discussed, where competition leads to stagnation without progress, but is viewed as a necessary phase for deeper supply-side reform [9] Market Opportunities - Huazhu's strategy includes viewing China as a world unto itself, recognizing the diverse consumer ecosystem and the potential for growth across various market segments [11][13] - The company identifies five trends reshaping the hotel industry: a shift from micro to medium-sized rooms, from standalone to chain hotels, from star ratings to brand focus, from major cities to county-level markets, and from real estate to investment returns [13] Future Vision - Huazhu aims to become a world-class enterprise, aspiring to have its brands rank among the top globally, enhance service quality, and redefine travel experiences [18][19] - The company's mission has evolved from providing a "good life" to facilitating a "good journey," reflecting a deeper commitment to enhancing customer experiences [21][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that H World Group (华住) has seen a significant increase in stock prices, with a 5.56% rise in Hong Kong stocks and a 2.6% pre-market increase in US stocks, driven by positive industry trends [1] - Morgan Stanley's recent research report highlights that the decline in Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) for the hotel industry has narrowed in Q3, primarily due to better-than-expected performance in September, which is expected to continue into October and possibly Q4 [1] - The report anticipates that H World Group and Atour's Q3 performance will exceed expectations, with Atour's retail business showing potential surprises and H World expected to demonstrate positive RevPAR trends and operational leverage [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for H World Group's US stock from $43.5 to $47, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - As of November 7, the closing price for H World Group was $41.070, with a trading volume of 1.1874 million shares and a total market capitalization of approximately $12.636 billion [1] - The stock has shown a 52-week high of $41.300 and a low of $28.564, indicating significant price movement within the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The eighth China International Import Expo serves as a significant platform for global enterprises, with Huazhu Group, Bank of China, and China UnionPay forming a strategic partnership to create a new consumption service ecosystem through cross-industry integration [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Partnership - Huazhu Group, Bank of China, and China UnionPay have entered into a strategic cooperation aimed at building a "financial + accommodation + lifestyle" ecosystem, enhancing consumer experience and value [1][2]. - The partnership will focus on creating a joint membership system and integrating member benefits to provide more precise and exclusive services to corporate clients and consumers [2]. Group 2: Consumer Experience Enhancement - The collaboration aims to improve consumer experience by introducing government and UnionPay consumption vouchers, offering payment and accommodation discounts, and exploring innovative "ticket root economy" models [4]. - Users will benefit from multiple discounts such as point redemption, payment reductions, and exclusive member privileges, while also accessing integrated services for cross-border travel through Bank of China's global financial network [4]. Group 3: Industry Context and Future Vision - The partnership aligns with China's strategic goals of accelerating the development of a tourism powerhouse and deepening the integration of cultural tourism and consumption [1]. - Huazhu Group, celebrating its 20th anniversary in 2025, has expanded to over 12,000 hotels across 19 countries, serving more than 2 billion guests, and aims to enhance the global presence of "Chinese service" [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in RevPAR for the third quarter, driven by better-than-expected performance in September, which is expected to continue into October and possibly the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Huazhu Group's stock rose nearly 6%, closing at 33.1 HKD with a trading volume of 64.37 million HKD [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Huazhu Group's third-quarter performance will exceed expectations, showcasing a positive RevPAR trend and operational leverage benefits [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - According to Guosen Securities, the decline in RevPAR for the hotel industry in the third quarter has continued to narrow on a quarter-on-quarter basis, indicating a positive shift in the industry cycle and individual company operational dynamics [1] - The RevPAR stabilized in September and continued to show resilience post-National Day, primarily driven by business travel [1] - The management of Shouqi Group expects the decline in RevPAR for Q4 to be in the range of 0-3% [1] - Looking ahead, the industry supply growth is expected to become more rational, and if policies stimulate business travel demand alongside flexible arrangements for leisure travel, valuations may recover ahead of the industry cycle turning point [1]

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in RevPAR for the third quarter, driven by better-than-expected performance in September, which is expected to continue into October and possibly the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Huazhu Group's stock price increased by nearly 6%, reaching HKD 33.1, with a trading volume of HKD 64.37 million [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Huazhu Group's third-quarter performance will exceed expectations, showcasing a positive trend in RevPAR and operational leverage benefits [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The hotel industry's RevPAR decline has been narrowing quarter-on-quarter, with a stable trend observed in September and continuing into the National Day holiday period [1] - Guosen Securities highlights that the RevPAR is expected to decline between 0-3% in Q4, with a gradual rationalization of supply growth anticipated next year [1] - The potential stabilization of business travel demand, combined with flexible arrangements for leisure travel during holidays, may lead to an early recovery in valuations ahead of the industry cycle turning point [1]