Summary of Huazhu Group Conference Call Industry Overview - The hotel industry is expected to see cyclical improvement by 2026, with RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) decline narrowing each quarter, driven by a rebalancing of supply and demand and robust growth in leisure travel demand. Service consumption policies will also boost leisure travel demand [2][6]. - The business travel market is stabilizing, with occupancy rates (OCC) having bottomed out, indicating potential for recovery. The investment payback period has extended to approximately 5 years due to declining average room prices (RAP) and rents, with a forecasted decrease in new store openings in 2026 [2][8]. Company Insights: Huazhu Group - Huazhu has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in store count and performance over the past 15 years, leveraging product iteration, standardized management, and strong member loyalty to create a unique growth flywheel. The company is actively expanding into the mid-to-high-end hotel sector, establishing a rich brand matrix [4][13]. - Huazhu's extensive store network and strong membership system allow it to reduce reliance on Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) in the short term, showcasing its operational strength. The company’s dual flywheel model, which links network scale and member traffic, provides a competitive advantage even in adverse conditions [5][7]. Competitive Positioning - Leading companies like Huazhu hold a market share of 15%-20% in key regions such as Shanghai, granting them pricing power. The strategy has shifted from focusing on occupancy rates to optimizing average room prices, which helps stabilize overall industry pricing [9]. - The hotel industry remains fragmented, but leading firms are transitioning to a strategy that balances occupancy and pricing, as evidenced by Huazhu achieving positive growth in average daily rates (ADR) in Q3 [9]. Long-term Growth Potential - The long-term outlook for China's accommodation industry is positive, with a trend of upward penetration. Comparatively, China's per capita GDP is nearing that of the U.S. in 1981, indicating a high proportion of disposable income spent on accommodation and leisure travel [10]. - The potential for chain hotel development is significant, with estimates suggesting that increasing the chain rate from 46% to 60%-70% could yield growth rates of 30%-50% for hotels with over 30 rooms [11][12]. Strategic Development in Mid-to-High-End Market - Huazhu currently operates over 1,000 mid-to-high-end hotels, with revenue per room significantly higher than that of economy hotels. The company aims to increase the number of mid-to-high-end hotels to over 3,000, which would surpass the share of economy hotels in its overall business [15]. - The company is also collaborating with Didi to attract high-quality business travelers and is expected to optimize product offerings in the mid-to-high-end sector [14]. Valuation and Market Position - Huazhu is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24-25 times by 2026, reflecting both industry recovery and the company's growth trajectory. The hotel sector in A-shares is currently experiencing marginal improvements, with leading companies like Shoulv and Jinjiang already showing positive changes [17]. - The overseas hotel groups benefit from a light-asset model that allows for valuation premiums, and Huazhu is expected to follow a similar path, transitioning from low-end to high-end offerings while ensuring stable cash flow and shareholder returns [16].

Industry Overview - The hotel industry exhibits a supply-demand flywheel effect, with leading companies in both domestic and international markets achieving valuations in the hundreds of billions [1] - The industry is currently at a two-year adjustment bottom, with expectations for supply-demand relationships to rebalance, driven by structural reforms in supply [1] - The long-term outlook indicates that China's service consumption, currently at 46%, is still on an upward trajectory, similar to the trend observed in the U.S. in the 1980s [1] Company Insights - Huazhu's model has redefined the limited-service hotel sector over the past 20 years, achieving a CAGR of over 20% in both store count and performance [2] - The company has developed a growth flywheel characterized by strong products, robust traffic, high returns, and aggressive expansion [2] - Huazhu's membership base has surpassed 300 million, leading the industry, with over 60% of bookings coming from central reservations [2] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with projections of reaching 18,000 economic and mid-range hotels by 2030 [3] - Brand upgrades are underway, with a focus on enhancing management, products, and membership, which could elevate profitability and valuation [3] - The company aims to adopt a light-asset model similar to overseas hotels, supporting stable cash flows and shareholder returns of over 5% [3] Investment Recommendations - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 are set at 4.44 billion and 5.17 billion yuan, respectively, with a slight upward revision for 2027 to 5.86 billion yuan [4] - The estimated reasonable stock price for the next year is projected to be between 43-45 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15-20% from the current price [4] - The company maintains an "outperform the market" rating, with expected performance in 2026 ranging from 5 to 5.4 billion yuan [4]

Core Insights - Serenity Capital Management, based in Singapore, significantly increased its stake in H World Group Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT) by acquiring 710,431 shares, resulting in a value change of approximately $30.7 million from the previous period [2][3][6] Company Overview - H World Group Limited has a market capitalization of $15.1 billion, with a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $3.4 billion and a net income of $534 million. The company offers a dividend yield of 3.7% [5] - The company operates a diversified portfolio of hotel brands, including HanTing, JI Hotel, Orange Hotel, and Steigenberger, covering both economy and upscale segments [5][8] - H World Group generates revenue primarily through leased and owned hotels, as well as manachised and franchised operations, leveraging brand scale and operational efficiency [9] Investment Position - Following the recent acquisition, H World Group Limited now constitutes 12.7% of Serenity Capital Management's assets under management (AUM), making it the fund's fourth-largest holding [4][6] - As of the latest report, H World Group shares were priced at $48.95, reflecting a 49% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 16.5% gain during the same period [4]

Core Viewpoint - Huazhu Group's "Green Stay" project has been recognized as one of the "Top Ten Green Development Cases of 2025" by Beijing News, highlighting its systematic approach to integrating low-carbon, water-saving, and resource-efficient practices into daily hotel operations [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The "Green Stay" initiative allows guests to make eco-friendly choices during their stay, such as opting not to change linens or have their rooms cleaned, which in turn earns them rewards points [2][6] - This option is available across major Huazhu brands, including All Seasons, Hanting, and others, and is designed to enhance guest experience while promoting sustainability [2][7] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The "Green Stay" selections are integrated into hotel management systems, ensuring accurate execution of guest preferences and reducing the risk of miscommunication [6][14] - This system addresses long-standing issues in the hotel industry related to environmental initiatives, making eco-friendly practices a standard part of operations [6][14] Group 3: Environmental Impact - The initiative has been implemented in approximately 9,000 Huazhu hotels nationwide, demonstrating its scalability and replicability [7] - The program has led to significant resource savings, including an estimated reduction of 1.176 million tons of carbon emissions and substantial water savings [10][14] Group 4: Broader Sustainability Strategy - Huazhu's sustainability efforts extend beyond the "Green Stay" project, incorporating eco-friendly materials and practices throughout its operations, including the use of recyclable materials in hotel construction [10][18] - The company has established a comprehensive ESG governance structure, integrating sustainability into its strategic decision-making and daily management [17][18] Group 5: Consumer Engagement - The "Green Stay" program effectively engages consumers by providing tangible rewards for eco-friendly choices, making sustainability a participatory experience [6][17] - This approach aligns with the preferences of younger consumers who value personalized experiences and environmental responsibility [6][17]

Core Viewpoint - H World Group's stock price has steadily increased since 2025, reaching a new high of over $48 on December 12, 2022, reflecting strong investor confidence in its business model and long-term growth potential [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Position - H World Group has demonstrated solid operational performance, with revenue and business expansion exceeding market analyst predictions, indicating its ability to deliver on commitments even in complex environments [2] - Major brokerage firms, including JPMorgan, CICC, Huatai, and Guosen Securities, have issued optimistic ratings for H World Group, recommending "buy" or "overweight" [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The hotel industry is undergoing structural adjustments, with a clear trend of resources concentrating towards leading chain brands, enhancing the industry's chain rate [3] - H World Group, as an industry leader, has shown resilience during industry cycles, maintaining high occupancy rates and stable average daily rates (ADR) [4] Group 3: Strategic Advantages and Growth Drivers - H World Group possesses three competitive advantages: a robust brand, a strong membership system, and advanced technology, which support its operational resilience [6] - The company has built a competitive membership system with over 300 million members, leading to high direct sales and reduced reliance on OTA platforms [6][7] - H World Group's digital capabilities have created a positive cycle of cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and improved user experience, which are crucial for navigating industry cycles [8] Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in lower-tier markets, where the chain rate is significantly lower compared to first and second-tier cities, presenting a substantial growth opportunity [9] - H World Group has made significant progress in the mid-to-high-end market, with over 1,600 mid-to-high-end stores opened or in the pipeline, marking a 25.3% year-on-year increase [11] - The company's long-term growth strategy is supported by its ability to adapt to market changes and enhance its brand portfolio, positioning it well for future expansion [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The hotel industry is experiencing a supply-demand flywheel effect, with leading companies in both domestic and international markets achieving significant market capitalizations. The industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with expectations for supply-demand rebalancing and structural reforms driving growth [1][21] - The company's growth model, which has been effective for over 20 years, emphasizes a "product-traffic-return-scale" cycle, showcasing strong product offerings, substantial membership growth, and efficient cost management [2][3] - The long-term outlook includes a three-phase value reassessment narrative focusing on store expansion, brand upgrades, and model evolution, with projections for significant increases in mid-to-high-end hotel numbers by 2030 [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The hotel industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and leading companies' pricing strategies. The supply side is expected to undergo structural reforms, enhancing growth opportunities [21][24] - The demand side is projected to grow steadily, with leisure travel maintaining resilience and business travel gradually recovering. The overall hotel demand is expected to stabilize as supply expands [24][39] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with projections of reaching 18,000 economy and mid-range hotels by 2030. Brand upgrades are anticipated to enhance profitability and valuation [3][4] - The company's model is evolving towards a light-asset approach, which is expected to support stable cash flows and shareholder returns exceeding 5% [3][4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 44.4 billion CNY for 2025, increasing to 58.6 billion CNY by 2027, with a corresponding rise in earnings per share [5][4] - The estimated reasonable stock price for the company is projected to be between 43 and 45 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15-20% from the current price [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The service industry is showing signs of stabilization and bottoming out after experiencing price pressure and same-store sales decline in 2024, with expectations for recovery in 2026, particularly in sub-sectors like hotels and duty-free [2][17]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The service consumption ratio is increasing, supported by improved infrastructure for chain operations, leading to the emergence of more quality brands [4][21]. - The government has introduced multiple policies to promote service consumption, indicating a potential for stronger recovery in domestic demand [18][20]. - The hotel sector is expected to see a rebalancing of supply and demand in 2026, with RevPAR stabilizing due to a low base and slowing supply growth [4][31]. Group 2: Sub-sector Analysis - **Hotels**: The hotel industry faced pressure from weak business travel demand and continued supply expansion, but RevPAR showed signs of recovery in October 2025, driven by ADR increases [26][33]. - **Duty-Free**: Duty-free sales are stabilizing, with a focus on the potential of new policies to boost sales from departing travelers and local residents [45][49]. - **Dining**: The dining sector is experiencing a controlled competitive environment, with affordable brands performing relatively well amidst a recovering landscape [36][44]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies that can effectively meet consumer demands for value and emotional satisfaction, possess strong operational capabilities, and capture sustainable growth drivers are likely to succeed [4][29]. - The focus on high-quality brands and those with strong internal capabilities is expected to yield better performance in the coming years [4][21]. Group 4: Market Performance - In 2025, companies like Gu Ming and Mi Xue have shown significant stock performance, indicating a trend where companies with strong growth potential outperform their peers [7][12]. - The overall market for the service sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, with structural opportunities emerging in the hotel and duty-free segments [6][31].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **large consumption sector**, highlighting the emergence of new consumer demands that drive growth in the sector through new products (personalized, green, low-carbon), new channels (snack chains, discount formats), and new business models (diverse consumption scenarios) supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Traditional Consumption Recovery**: The traditional consumption sector is expected to recover by 2026, driven by the release of residents' purchasing power and policy measures aimed at boosting employment and income stability. The food and beverage industry is stabilizing, with the liquor sector showing signs of fundamental stability and dairy products expected to recover quickly [1][5]. - **Commodity Market Trends**: The commodity market has shown a trend of high followed by low prices, with the government implementing various promotional policies to stimulate service consumption and domestic demand. The Ministry of Commerce has issued opinions to expand service consumption, aiming to enhance residents' quality of life and stimulate domestic demand potential [1][6][7]. - **Emerging Consumer Demands**: New consumer demands are impacting the large consumption sector through three main directions: the development of new products that meet diverse and personalized needs, the optimization of new channel structures, and the promotion of new business models that foster diverse consumption scenarios [2][4]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Social Services Sector Changes**: The social services sector is evolving to meet changing consumer demands, with slight increases in beauty care and retail sectors. Key areas of investment include outdoor sports, gold and jewelry, and cultural and trendy IPs, with recommendations for companies like Anta Sports and Lao Pu Gold [8][22]. - **Tourism Market Trends**: The tourism market is gradually recovering, with leading companies like Ctrip and Huazhu Group adapting through technological innovation and marketing to meet the new demands of both young and elderly consumers. China Duty Free's Hainan business has benefited significantly from new duty-free policies [9][10]. - **Food and Beverage Sector Stability**: The food and beverage sector is stabilizing, with the liquor market facing challenges but showing resilience in mass consumption. The snack sector is experiencing performance differentiation, while dairy product demand is steady and supply is gradually clearing [12][17]. - **Investment Opportunities in Agriculture**: The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors present investment opportunities, particularly in pig farming and the pet industry, which is growing due to demographic changes and emotional needs [3][13][19]. - **Household Appliance Sector**: The household appliance industry is seeking structural highlights amid steady growth, with a focus on high-dividend white goods and improving profit margins in black goods. The market for robotic vacuum cleaners is also expected to grow due to technological advancements [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the large consumption sector and its various components, along with potential investment opportunities and market trends.

Group 1: Global Hotel Industry Trends - The Middle East has emerged as the hottest hotel market globally, with Qatar's average room rate and RevPAR reaching their highest levels since 2013, increasing by 19.6% and 20.3% year-on-year, respectively [2] - During the Doha Film Festival on November 24, the overall market occupancy rate peaked at 94.2%, the highest since February of this year [2] - In Saudi Arabia, Marriott International signed a management agreement for the Courtyard by Marriott in Mecca, marking a milestone of over 100 hotels in operation and development in the country [2] Group 2: Asia-Pacific Market Developments - In Singapore, two legacy hotels are rebranding to international chains, with a notable acquisition of the Miramar Hotel for 160 million SGD to transform it into a Hilton Garden Inn [4] - Hilton announced plans to expand its luxury and lifestyle hotel brands in Southeast Asia, signing 17 new hotel projects across six countries, adding nearly 4,000 rooms [4] - In Australia, Melbourne's hotel market achieved record highs in ADR and RevPAR, with RevPAR increasing by 8.6% year-on-year, driven by major events [5] Group 3: Personnel Changes in Hotel Groups - Eight hotel groups announced significant personnel changes, including the appointment of three new Vice Presidents for Greater China at InterContinental Hotels Group [7] - Kempinski Hotels appointed Paul Lonergan as Chief Operating and Asset Management Officer to drive performance and asset optimization [7] - Wyndham Hotels announced the departure of its CFO Michele Allen, with Kurt Albert appointed as interim CFO [7] Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions in Hotel Groups - Junting Hotels approved a cash acquisition of a 21% stake in Zhejiang Junlan Hotel Management for 79.8 million CNY, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary [10] - Marriott International completed the integration of its brand and asset-light business with Another Star, the parent company of citizenM hotels, which will continue to operate under a long-term franchise agreement [10] Group 5: Hotel Asset Transactions - In November, 82 hotel assets were reported for sale, with significant transactions including the sale of two Wanda Hotels for 3.31 billion CNY and 3.28 billion CNY [12] - The Ritz-Carlton in Sanya is listed for sale at 2.265 billion CNY, marking it as the first Ritz-Carlton in a resort area in China [12] - Beijing's Le Meridien Hotel is publicly listed for sale at 3 billion CNY, while the CHAO Hotel in Sanlitun has a starting bid of approximately 1.177 billion CNY [12] Group 6: Hotel Openings and Signings in China - In November, 236 new hotels opened in China, with 29 in the high-end segment, including 20 international brands [14] - A total of 105 hotels were signed, showing a significant increase from the previous month, with notable signings from InterContinental and Wyndham [15] - The construction market in China remains strong, with 3,695 projects totaling 656,873 rooms planned as of the end of Q3 [16] Group 7: Luxury Hotel Rankings and Analysis - The ABN Index for luxury hotels shows high search and new media indices, with Shangri-La Hotels leading the rankings [20][28] - The average score for the search index was 61.32, with top searches focused on hotel openings and acquisitions [28] - The media index saw a slight decline, averaging 108.94, with marketing themes centered around Christmas and New Year events [28]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in consumer spending, with tourism-related prices showing strong performance. The national CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November 2025, reflecting a continued recovery in consumer spending [2][7]. - Hotel prices have shown resilience despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with the average hotel room price maintaining positive growth year-on-year. The RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) has only slightly declined, indicating a shift from a volume-driven recovery to a price-stabilized and optimized operational approach [2][8]. - The introduction of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) in the service industry is expected to clarify the asset securitization path for various service sectors, including tourism and hospitality. This initiative aims to revitalize existing assets and improve financial structures [2][22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Hotel Structure Differentiation and Price Resilience - The hotel industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in occupancy rates, but average room prices remain stable, with an ADR (Average Daily Rate) of 388.8 CNY per night in early December, up 4.3% year-on-year [8][10]. - The RevPAR for the week ending December 6, 2025, was 233 CNY per night, showing only a 0.4% decline year-on-year, indicating a recovery phase focused on price stability and operational efficiency [8][10]. 2. REITs Supporting Asset Securitization in the Service Industry - The newly released REITs project industry scope includes cultural tourism infrastructure and commercial facilities, allowing for a clearer path to asset securitization for hotels and tourist attractions [22][23]. - The report emphasizes that the inclusion of high-quality service industry assets in the REITs framework will enhance cash flow stability and operational efficiency, ultimately benefiting the valuation and investment landscape of the sector [22][24]. 3. Valuation of Key Industry Companies - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the tourism and hospitality sectors, including metrics such as market capitalization and PE ratios, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities [26]. - Notable companies highlighted for investment consideration include tourism sites like Sanxia Tourism and hotels like Shoulu Hotel and Huazhu [26].