PowerLattice attracts investment from ex-Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger for its power saving chiplet https://t.co/mfg7WB2sxR ...

Core Viewpoint - The current evaluation suggests it may be an appropriate time to sell Intel (INTC) stock due to its weak financial performance and the stock's significant increase this year [1][3]. Financial Performance - Intel's market capitalization stands at $160 billion, with revenues declining from $54 billion to $53 billion over the last year, reflecting a decrease of 1.5% [5][7]. - The company has experienced an average revenue contraction of 7.6% over the past three years [7]. - Quarterly revenues increased by 2.8% to $14 billion in the latest quarter compared to $13 billion a year earlier [7]. - Operating income for the last 12 months was reported at -$104 million, resulting in an operating margin of -0.2% [8]. - Intel recorded a net income of approximately $198 million, reflecting a net margin of about 0.4% [8]. Debt and Financial Stability - Intel's debt was reported at $47 billion, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 28.8% [9]. - The company holds $31 billion in cash (including cash equivalents), leading to a cash-to-assets ratio of 15.1% [9]. Market Position and Valuation - Intel is losing market share in both the PC and server CPU markets, and its foundry business has not yet gained traction [3]. - The stock is considered unattractive due to its moderate valuation, which does not adequately reflect the company's operational weaknesses [3]. - The target price for INTC stock is set at $25, indicating a pessimistic outlook [3]. Historical Stock Performance - INTC stock has dropped 63.3% from its peak of $68.26 on April 9, 2021, to $25.04 on October 11, 2022, while the S&P 500 saw a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% during the same period [12]. - The highest point reached since then was $50.76 on December 27, 2023, with the current trading price at $35.52 [12]. - Historical declines include a 34.8% drop from a high of $68.47 on January 24, 2020, to $44.61 on March 16, 2020, and a 56.8% decline from a high of $27.98 on December 6, 2007, to $12.08 on February 23, 2009 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lattice Semiconductor, has shown signs of recovery in its Q3 financial performance, with revenue growth and improved profitability metrics, despite challenges in the broader FPGA market [3][5][9]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached $133 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 4.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.6%, ending a streak of seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines [3]. - GAAP gross margin was 67.9%, down 1.1 percentage points year-over-year and 0.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was $38.7 million, up 14.7% year-over-year and 13.6% quarter-over-quarter, with a Non-GAAP operating margin of 29% [3]. - Non-GAAP net profit was $38.2 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17.1%, with a Non-GAAP net margin of 28.6% [3]. - The company repurchased $15 million worth of shares in Q3, continuing a buyback program for 20 consecutive quarters [3]. Market Position and Outlook - Lattice competes in the low-power FPGA segment, holding the top position in global shipments, while facing challenges from larger competitors like AMD and Intel [3][5]. - The company anticipates continued revenue growth in Q4, with guidance of $138 to $148 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 18% to 26% [16]. - The booking rate reached a six-quarter high, with orders extending into the first half of the following year [3]. Business Segments - The industrial and automotive segment generated $50.3 million in revenue, down 7% year-over-year but up 6% quarter-over-quarter, with expectations for inventory normalization by year-end [10]. - The communications and computing segment saw revenue of $74 million, up 21% year-over-year and 8% quarter-over-quarter, driven by growth in general and AI server use cases [10]. - Consumer revenue was $9 million, down 24% year-over-year, continuing a five-quarter decline [10]. Product Development - Lattice's product lines include two FPGA hardware platforms and a software development platform, with new product revenue expected to exceed high-teens percentage by 2025 [12][14]. - The company is focusing on the Nexus series for data center applications and the Avant series for industrial and automotive markets, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 and 2027 [14]. AI Exposure - The company projects that AI-related revenue will account for a high-teens percentage by 2025 and mid-20s percentage by 2026, with products being increasingly adopted in data center applications [16]. - Management highlights the potential for low-power FPGAs to gain traction in the AI semiconductor landscape, particularly in ultra-large cloud service providers [17]. Future Projections - The new financial target model anticipates revenue growth of 15-20% over the next 3 to 4 years, with gross margins expected to reach the low 70s [18]. - The company expects to generate over $600 million in revenue by 2026, with a Non-GAAP net profit of $200 million [18][19].

Group 1 - Intel's stock has increased by 83% over the past three months, positively impacting semiconductor investors and its partner Synopsys [2] - Intel's business challenges are evident, with the Client Computing Group (CCG) and Data Center and AI (DCAI) performing well, while the Intel Foundry segment faces difficulties [3][6] - The foundry business is crucial for Intel's growth, as it shifts to offering manufacturing services to external customers [4] Group 2 - Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan indicated a more cautious approach moving forward, focusing on capacity growth based on volume commitments and tangible milestones [5] - Recent operational changes include halting manufacturing projects in Poland and Germany, slowing construction in Ohio, and relocating Costa Rica operations to Vietnam and Malaysia [5] - Synopsys' weak results in the Design Intellectual Property (IP) business are linked to challenges at a major foundry customer, likely Intel [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's EMIB advanced packaging technology is gaining attention from Apple and Qualcomm, being considered a viable alternative to TSMC's products [1] Group 1: Company Interest - Apple has recently posted job openings for DRAM packaging engineers, specifically seeking experience in advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS, EMIB, SoIC, and PoP [1] - Qualcomm is also looking for a product management director for its data center business, with a requirement for familiarity with Intel's EMIB technology [1] Group 2: Technology and Market Position - Intel's CEO and executives have emphasized that their Foveros and EMIB technologies have attracted interest from multiple customers and are capable of large-scale production [1]

Group 1 - Major stock indices are showing positive trends, with Dow futures up 0.14%, S&P 500 futures up 0.50%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.79% [1] - Prominent tech stocks are also rising, with Tesla up over 1%, Amazon up over 1%, and Micron Technology up over 2% [1] - Chinese concept stocks are experiencing gains, with JD.com up 1.26%, Baidu up 1.17%, Futu up 2.54%, and NIO up 1.46% [1] Group 2 - Google shares rose over 5% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new position in Alphabet, purchasing 17.85 million shares, making it the 10th largest holding [1] - Alibaba's stock increased by over 3% following the launch of its Qwen-based Qianwen app, which aims to enhance user interaction and service across various life scenarios [1] Group 3 - Elon Musk warned Bill Gates to close his short position on Tesla, which he has held for nearly eight years, citing the negative impact on investor confidence [2] - SoftBank's Q3 holdings in U.S. stocks increased to $26 billion, up 4% from the previous quarter, while it exited positions in Oracle and Cipher Mining, and initiated a new position in Intel with approximately 86.96 million shares valued at $2.9 billion [2] Group 4 - The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) significantly reduced its U.S. stock holdings in Q3, decreasing from approximately $23.8 billion to $19.4 billion, marking an 18% decline and the lowest level in two years [3] - Bank of America issued a warning regarding potential risks for the S&P 500, suggesting a possible correction of up to 10% as market breadth deteriorates [3]

Group 1: David Tepper's Investment Moves - David Tepper, a prominent hedge fund manager, has trimmed several AI and technology-related stocks while increasing his stake in consumer discretionary stocks, particularly Whirlpool [2][3][5] - Tepper completely sold out of Intel and Oracle, both of which saw significant stock price increases in Q3, with Intel rising about 50% and Oracle by approximately 40% [4][5] Group 2: Whirlpool's Stock Performance - Whirlpool has experienced a significant decline in stock price, down 75% from its 2021 highs and 40% year-to-date, which may present a value opportunity for investors [6][7] - The company's operating income has decreased from approximately $2.5 billion during the pandemic housing boom to just over $800 million currently, reflecting the decline in stock price [9] Group 3: Market Conditions Impacting Whirlpool - The decline in Whirlpool's sales is attributed to a post-pandemic housing bust, with homeowners reluctant to move and prospective buyers priced out of the market, leading to a slowdown in housing sales [8] - Tariffs imposed this year have negatively impacted Whirlpool, as foreign competitors have increased their sales to U.S. retailers, who have pre-purchased foreign items to avoid tariffs, thus reducing orders for Whirlpool's domestically produced goods [11][12] Group 4: Future Outlook for Whirlpool - Tepper's investment in Whirlpool suggests a belief in a potential recovery, as the CEO indicated that the full impact of tariffs would only take effect recently, which may lead to increased purchasing of Whirlpool products [13][14] - A housing recovery could serve as a catalyst for improved sales and earnings for Whirlpool, contingent on factors such as moderating long-term interest rates and homeowners beginning to sell their properties [14]

Core Insights - SoftBank's total market value of U.S. stock holdings reached $26 billion for Q3 2025, up 4% from $24.9 billion in the previous quarter [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 95.94% of the total portfolio value [2] Holdings Activity - New Purchases: 4 stocks [2] - Added to Existing Positions: 2 stocks [2] - Sold Out of: 2 stocks [2] - Reduced Holdings in: 4 stocks [2] Top Holdings - T-Mobile US (TMUS) is the largest holding with approximately 45.17 million shares valued at about $10.81 billion, representing 41.64% of the portfolio, with a decrease of 29.26% in shares held [3][5] - NVIDIA (NVDA) is the second-largest holding with approximately 32.11 million shares valued at $6 billion, accounting for 23.07% of the portfolio, with an increase of 5.19% in shares held [3][5] - Intel (INTC) is a new addition with approximately 86.96 million shares valued at $2.92 billion, making up 11.23% of the portfolio [3][6] - Symbotic (SYM) holds approximately 39.83 million shares valued at $2.15 billion, representing 8.27% of the portfolio, with no change in shares held [3][6] - Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN) has approximately 31.43 million shares valued at $610 million, accounting for 2.35% of the portfolio, with no change in shares held [4][6] Recent Transactions - SoftBank sold all its shares in NVIDIA, cashing out approximately $5.8 billion [3] - New positions were established in Klarna Group, Ambiq Micro, and Concorde International Group [6] - SoftBank completely exited positions in Cipher Mining and Oracle [6] - Significant reductions were made in holdings of Nu Holdings, Metsera, and Lemonade, while a substantial increase was noted in Full Truck Alliance [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Intel is lagging in chip business but has competitive options in advanced packaging technology, which is becoming essential in the supply chain as demand for powerful computing solutions grows rapidly [2][7]. Group 1: Advanced Packaging Technology - Advanced packaging solutions have become indispensable in the supply chain, with companies like AMD and NVIDIA integrating multiple chips into single packages to enhance chip density and platform performance [2]. - Intel's EMIB (Embedded Multi-Die Interconnect Bridge) technology connects multiple chipsets within a single package without the need for large intermediary layers, making it a viable alternative to TSMC's CoWoS [4]. - Intel also offers Foveros Direct 3D packaging technology, which utilizes TSV (Through-Silicon Via) for stacking on substrates, recognized as one of the industry's most esteemed solutions [4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Competition - Companies like Qualcomm and Apple are actively seeking talent skilled in Intel's EMIB technology, indicating a strong demand for advanced packaging expertise in the industry [2]. - Intel's advanced packaging solutions are seen as a strategic move for companies like Apple, Qualcomm, and Broadcom, especially as TSMC faces capacity bottlenecks due to high order volumes from competitors like NVIDIA and AMD [7]. - NVIDIA's CEO has praised Intel's Foveros technology, suggesting a promising market outlook for Intel's advanced packaging solutions, despite recruitment listings not guaranteeing adoption [9].

Core Insights - Intel has removed the next-generation 8-channel "Diamond Rapids" processors from its roadmap, focusing instead on 16-channel memory configurations for future server processors [2][13] - The transition to 16-channel memory is expected to be completed by the second half of 2026, aligning with the needs of future AI cluster builds [2][3] - Intel's Xeon 6700P series remains popular due to its cost-effectiveness and lower configuration costs compared to AMD EPYC processors [11][12] Summary by Sections Product Roadmap Changes - Intel's new leadership in the data center division has led to a significant change in the roadmap, with the 8-channel "Diamond Rapids" being removed [2][13] - The focus will now be on 16-channel processors, which will provide advantages for various customer applications [13] Memory Configuration and Performance - The shift from 12-channel to 16-channel memory is seen as a necessary evolution, with 16-channel configurations expected to offer similar memory capacity as 8-channel designs [12][14] - The 12-channel memory design previously offered a 50% theoretical bandwidth increase over 8-channel designs, but 8-channel platforms allow for more DIMM slots, enhancing memory capacity [5][7] Competitive Landscape - Intel's Xeon 6700 series is favored for its cost-effectiveness, allowing for configurations that do not require high core counts, thus appealing to a broader range of users [11][12] - The upcoming Granite Rapids-WS series is expected to compete aggressively with AMD's Threadripper 9000WX series, with specifications that may lead to a shift in market share [16][17] Future Developments - Intel is preparing to launch Granite Rapids-WS processors, which are anticipated to have up to 128 cores, enhancing its competitive position in the workstation market [16][17] - The performance of Granite Rapids-WS is expected to surpass that of AMD's EPYC processors, indicating a potential shift in the competitive dynamics of the server market [17][19]