Company - OpenAI will begin testing advertisements in ChatGPT to seek new revenue sources [5] - Google has requested a U.S. judge to postpone the order to share data during its appeal [5] - JPMorgan has surpassed Dimensional to become the world's largest active ETF company [6] - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to decline, raising concerns about their IPO prospects [6] - Spotify plans to generate significant profits through another price increase [6] Industry - The U.S. housing builder confidence index has dropped to 37 in January, marking the first decline in five months and falling below all estimates [5] - The U.S. manufacturing output is expected to grow in the last few months of 2025 [5] - The job market remains a concern, with the Federal Reserve advised to prepare for potential rate cuts [6] - The artificial intelligence sector is accelerating job reductions in key global industries [6] - Oil prices have slightly recovered, but traders remain cautious about risks related to Iran [6]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate three times in 2025, while inflation remains elevated at 5% despite cooling from its 2022 peak [1] - Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about political interference in the Fed's operations, emphasizing the importance of the central bank's independence [2][4] - The Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which could lead to charges related to his congressional testimony [3] 分组2 - Inflation has significantly impacted purchasing power, with the U.S. consumer price index increasing by 26% since 2020 [6] - Gold prices have surged over 60% in the past year, with Dimon predicting that gold could reach $10,000 an ounce in the current economic environment [8] - Real estate has also proven to be a strong hedge against inflation, with the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rising by 43% over the past five years [11] 分组3 - Alternative assets, including art, are gaining attention as they provide diversification and have shown low correlation with traditional assets since 1995 [18] - Platforms like Masterworks are making investments in blue-chip artwork accessible to a broader audience, allowing investors to buy shares in high-value art pieces [20]

Jamie Dimon poached a senior figure from Warren Buffett’s inner circle, and the legendary investor was surprisingly OK with it. The longtime JPMorgan Chase CEO hired former Geico CEO Todd Combs away from Berkshire Hathaway in December, hand-picking him to lead a $10 billion investment group as part of JPMorgan’s Security and Resiliency Initiative aimed at helping companies accelerate manufacturing. During a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event Thursday, Dimon said he had called Buffett personally to tell him ...

Industry Overview - Earnings season is approaching for major North American steel companies, with results expected in the coming weeks [1] - Steel equities have outperformed, rising 17% over the past three months compared to the State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF's 15%, driven by a supply-driven rally in Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices, which increased by 17% despite weak underlying demand [1] Market Dynamics - HRC metal margins have expanded over 20% relative to pre-tariff levels, and post-tariff mill utilization is approximately 160 basis points above historical norms [2] - Forward demand indicators are mixed as medium- and smaller-scale buyers adjust to trade uncertainty [2] Regulatory Environment - Clarity on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs is needed to trigger larger steel-intensive projects, as the Supreme Court of the US recently deferred these matters [3] Company Projections - Price momentum is expected to continue through at least the first quarter, with projected HRC prices at $955 per ton, although upside is limited by a narrowing import arbitrage and a seasonal slowdown anticipated in summer [4] - Fourth-quarter results are expected to show weaker earnings due to seasonally lighter shipments and lagging sheet contracts, with a potential decline of up to 8% quarter-over-quarter [4] Company-Specific Insights - Nucor Corporation (NUE) is expected to outperform due to a conservative mid-quarter guide, while Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) may report weakness from elevated costs [5] - Reliance, Inc. (RS) could exceed its fourth-quarter/first-quarter EPS guidance due to stronger pricing and lower customer pushback, despite risks from unplanned outages at Steel Dynamics's Butler mill and a transformer fire at Sinton [5] - Commercial Metals Company (CMC) reported that many large construction projects remain on hold but noted positive momentum in rebar fabrication, an area where NUE has exposure [6]

Market Overview - The market this week was driven by two main themes: the investigation rumors surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the fluctuating geopolitical situation regarding Iran, impacting gold, silver, and oil prices [2][3] - The US dollar index faced initial pressure due to political uncertainty but later strengthened, supported by better-than-expected economic data and reduced rate cut expectations, aiming for a third consecutive week of gains [2] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4642.85 per ounce before settling at $4583 per ounce, while silver peaked at nearly $93.70 per ounce, marking a nearly 30% increase this year [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to speculation that it may adopt a more hawkish stance, as indicated by various financial institutions [5] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials emphasized the need to maintain independence and base decisions on data rather than political pressure, with some suggesting that current economic data does not support immediate rate cuts [12][13] Geopolitical Developments - The geopolitical situation in Iran has seen a temporary easing, with the US indicating a reduced likelihood of large-scale military action, although military readiness remains [14][15] - Diplomatic efforts from Middle Eastern countries have contributed to the de-escalation of tensions, with the US maintaining a stance of observing Iran's actions closely [15] Investment Strategies - The introduction of dynamic margin requirements for precious metals by CME is expected to increase market volatility, particularly affecting high-leverage traders [16] - The National Grid of China plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in the construction of a new power system during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a 40% increase from the previous plan [21] Corporate Earnings - Major banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported strong quarterly earnings, driven by a rebound in investment banking activities and robust trading revenues [27] - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$505.7 billion (approximately $16 billion) for Q4 2025, with a 35% year-on-year increase, attributed to strong demand for AI-related chips [24]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase is forming a new team within its investment banking division to assist companies in raising private capital as an alternative to going public, indicating a belief that the private market will remain dominant despite anticipated large IPOs later this year [1][5] Specific Details - The public equity market has changed significantly, with a general decline in IPOs and more companies opting to raise funds from large investors while remaining private. Private equity firms are holding onto their portfolio companies longer, often transferring them to new "secondary" funds instead of selling to another company. Institutional investors are closely monitoring the private market and have raised substantial funds for investment [2][6] - JPMorgan believes that the structural shift in how companies choose to raise funds has occurred, with private markets overshadowing public markets. Keith Canton, co-head of Americas Equity Capital Markets, noted that historically, IPOs or sales were the only exit strategies, but there are now many more options available [2][6] - The new team, named "Private Capital Advisory and Solutions," will be a hybrid team that collaborates with the capital markets department while providing M&A advisory services. The team plans to connect companies seeking private capital with investors and will advise clients on raising early equity, preferred stock, and convertible debt [2][6] Background - Some of the largest and most valuable companies in the U.S. are private. A notable upcoming stock sale is OpenAI's $40 billion offering in 2025, which will only be available to a select group of investors chosen by the company's executives [4][8] - To cater to this growing segment, JPMorgan has been developing a private credit program, and its investment banking research team is now covering private companies. These initiatives aim to ensure the bank maintains relationships with these companies, which are less reliant on large banks for fundraising compared to public companies [4][8] - The expansion of the private market has sparked calls for a revival of the public market, including from SEC Chairman Paul Atkins. Observers warn that the growth of the private market means that only those with wealth and investment channels will benefit [4][8] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has criticized the growth of the private market, blaming regulators for high listing costs and suggesting that management of these companies has become difficult due to advisory firms focusing too much on short-term financial performance [4][8][9]

JPMorgan Chase has formed a new advisory team to help companies and sponsors raise money from private markets, it said on Friday, as the largest U.S. lender looks to deepen its presence in the red-hot... ...

Company News - Italy has launched an investigation into Microsoft, accusing the company of "misleading and coercive" sales practices related to its games [1] - Huawei and Xiaomi have been included in Apple's trade-in program for iPhones [1] - Tesla has applied for the trademark "Tesla Smart" in China [1] - JPMorgan executives anticipate a fruitful year for mergers and acquisitions, planning to hire more personnel across Europe [1]

Market Overview - The market this week was influenced by two main themes: the investigation rumors surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and concerns over the "independence of the Federal Reserve," impacting the dollar and interest rate expectations; and fluctuating geopolitical news related to Iran, leading to volatility in gold and oil prices [1] - The dollar index faced pressure early in the week due to political uncertainty but later strengthened supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data and reduced expectations for recent rate cuts, aiming for a third consecutive week of gains [1] - Gold prices initially surged to a historical high of $4642.85 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, but later entered a consolidation phase, closing at $4583 per ounce [1] - Silver saw a significant increase, peaking at nearly $93.70 per ounce, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 30%, although it experienced extreme volatility [1] Non-U.S. Currencies - The "high market trading" led to the Japanese yen falling below the 159 mark against the dollar, reaching its weakest level since July 2024; the euro and pound showed slight weakness while the Australian dollar remained relatively stable [2] - Oil prices were primarily driven by news related to Iran, initially rising due to concerns over internal unrest but later retracing gains as U.S. political statements eased tensions [2] Investment Bank Insights - Lloyds Bank suggested that the Federal Reserve might become a scapegoat for the weak U.S. job market; UBS indicated that concerns over the Fed's independence could lead to a more hawkish stance [5] - Goldman Sachs noted that the Fed would continue to make decisions based on data, unaffected by investigation pressures; Morgan Stanley stated that inflation remains above target, insufficient to support a rate cut in January [5] Major Events - Trump criticized Powell again, claiming he is either incompetent or corrupt, amidst a backdrop of a criminal investigation into Powell, which has drawn support for him from global central bank leaders [6] - The Senate Majority Leader questioned the investigation's legitimacy, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence [7] - The December CPI data indicated a strong signal of cooling inflation, leading to increased market bets on early rate cuts, although Fed officials warned against premature easing [8] Corporate Developments - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$505.7 billion (approximately $16 billion) for Q4 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips [24] - Apple and Google reached a potential $5 billion AI partnership, opting for Google's Gemini model over OpenAI, impacting the competitive landscape in AI technology [26] - Tesla announced a shift from a one-time purchase model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature to a subscription model, aiming to create a more stable revenue stream and lower entry barriers for consumers [28]

Group 1 - The fourth quarter earnings season has commenced with reports from Delta Air Lines and JPMorgan Chase, with more bank earnings expected later in the week [1][5] - Wall Street analysts predict an 8.3% earnings per share growth rate for S&P 500 companies in Q4, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth if realized [2] - Analysts have increased earnings expectations for tech companies, with the consensus estimate for S&P 500 Q4 earnings growth previously at 7.2% as of September 30 [3] Group 2 - The earnings season will test the improved stock market breadth observed at the start of 2026, with ongoing themes such as artificial intelligence and economic policies from the Trump administration influencing market dynamics [4] - Major financial companies scheduled to report earnings this week include Bank of New York Mellon, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and PNC [5]