Group 1 - Eurozone inflation is on a downward trend, increasing the likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates again in 2025, with core inflation expected to fall below 2% due to slowing wage growth and declining commodity prices [1] - Bridgewater Associates warns of high government debt in the US and UK, leading to economic strain and social polarization, with UK productivity stagnating since the mid-2000s [1] - Deutsche Bank strategists predict a continued weak dollar, as investors shift away from US assets amid a new easing cycle from the Federal Reserve and concerns over its independence [2] Group 2 - German manufacturing is facing challenges, with a decline in manufacturing PMI to 48.5 indicating increased contraction, despite a rise in services PMI to 52.5 [2] - Malaysia's fiscal deficit target for 2025 is expected to remain at 3.8%, benefiting from lower Brent crude prices and a stronger ringgit, with inflation expectations adjusted down to 1.5% [2] - The H-1B visa reform in the US may reduce the outflow of Indian talent, benefiting India's economy, but could also lead to decreased remittances from the US, putting downward pressure on the Indian rupee [3]

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 MORGAN STANLEY WILL OFFER BITCOIN AND CRYPTO TRADING NEXT YEAR. https://t.co/PmwyFZ5FvG ...

Cryptocurrency Adoption - Morgan Stanley 将于明年提供 Bitcoin 和加密货币交易服务 [1]

About this content About Sean Mason Sean Mason is a Senior Journalist at Proactive, having researched and written about Canadian and US equities for 20 years. Sean graduated from the University of Toronto with a BA in history and economics and has also passed the Canadian Securities Course. He previously worked at Investors Digest of Canada, Stockhouse, and SmallCapPower.com. Read more About the publisher Proactive financial news and online broadcast teams provide fast, accessible, informative and action ...

🚨 BREAKING: Morgan Stanley is preparing to launch crypto trading for retail clients via E-Trade in the first half of 2026. https://t.co/u1E8mhYtRT ...

JUST IN: $1.3 trillion Morgan Stanley to let E*Trade clients trade #Bitcoin in the first half of next year 🚀 https://t.co/uwUsaKTuc1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Zacks Investment Bank industry is poised to benefit from a shift towards easier monetary policy, which is expected to enhance client activity and deal flow, while investments in AI and technology will improve long-term efficiency despite short-term cost pressures [1][2]. Industry Overview - The Zacks Investment Bank industry comprises firms that provide financial products and services, including advisory-based financial transactions to corporations, governments, and financial institutions globally. The industry has evolved from focusing on IPOs and M&As to offering a broader range of services, including securities research and investment management [3]. Key Themes Driving the Industry - **Recovery in Underwriting and Advisory Businesses**: After a downturn in underwriting and deal-making since 2022, there has been a rebound in these areas, driven by expectations of a favorable investment banking environment [4][5]. - **Solid Trading Business**: Increased market volatility has led to heightened client activity in trading, suggesting that investment banks will continue to see strong trading income [6]. - **Technological Advancements**: Investments in technology and AI are expected to enhance operational efficiency, despite rising technology-related expenses in the short term [7]. Industry Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Investment Bank industry has outperformed both its sector and the S&P 500 over the past year, with a collective stock increase of 51.3% compared to 18.4% for the S&P 500 [12]. - The industry currently has a trailing 12-month price-to-tangible book ratio (P/TBV) of 3.06X, which is above the five-year median of 2.15X, indicating a relative valuation that is lower than the broader market [15][17]. Company Highlights - **Morgan Stanley (MS)**: With a market cap of $255.3 billion, MS is expected to benefit from a favorable macroeconomic backdrop and has seen its shares rise by 29.3% in the past six months. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings indicates an 11.6% year-over-year growth [21][20]. - **Evercore Inc. (EVR)**: This firm has a market cap of $13.7 billion and has experienced a 63.4% increase in shares over the past six months. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings suggests a 34.5% year-over-year increase [24][22]. - **Moelis & Company (MC)**: With a market cap of $6.1 billion, MC has seen a 20.4% rise in shares over the past six months. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings indicates a 37.9% year-over-year jump [28][26].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley is preparing to offer crypto trading to retail customers through its E-Trade division, marking a significant shift in the wealth management industry [1][2] - The firm is collaborating with startup Zerohash for liquidity, custody, and settlement related to crypto trading, with plans to launch in the first half of 2026 [2] - Morgan Stanley is developing a robust wallet infrastructure to act as a custodian for digital assets, indicating a broader strategy beyond just crypto trading [3] Group 1 - Morgan Stanley views the introduction of crypto trading as a transformative moment for the wealth management industry [1] - The partnership with Zerohash includes an investment stake from Morgan Stanley, highlighting the firm's commitment to the crypto space [2] - The head of wealth management at Morgan Stanley, Jed Finn, emphasizes the potential of cryptocurrency and related technologies, suggesting a comprehensive approach to digital assets [3]

Core Insights - Sustainable funds have outperformed traditional funds since December 2018, with total returns of 54% for sustainable funds compared to 45% for traditional funds according to Morgan Stanley analysis [3] - Total assets under management (AUM) for sustainable funds reached an all-time high of $3.92 trillion in the first half of 2025, with 92% of sustainable funds showing positive returns versus 85% for traditional funds [3][4] - Sustainable funds represent 6.7% of total AUM, a slight increase from 6.6% at the end of 2024, but down from 7.3% in June 2023 due to greater net inflows into traditional funds [4] Performance and Inflows - Net inflows for sustainable funds have declined from over $100 billion in 2022 and 2023 to $80 billion in 2024, although they showed signs of recovery in Q2 2025 [4][5] - European sustainable funds had $24.7 billion in inflows during the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the $2.7 billion in Asia, although Asia-domiciled funds had the strongest net flows as a percentage of prior year-end AUM at 2.6% [6][7] - In the first half of 2025, sustainable funds had net inflows of $16 billion, which was 0.5% above prior year-end AUM, while traditional funds had a higher inflow of 2.1% [8] Comparative Returns - Median returns for sustainable funds were 12.5% in the first half of 2025, compared to 9.2% for traditional funds, marking the strongest outperformance period for sustainable funds since tracking began in 2019 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a sustained and widespread sell-off of the US dollar, citing potential negative impacts from a government shutdown as a contributing factor [1]. Group 1: Dollar Bear Market Mechanism - Morgan Stanley indicates that the US dollar has entered a "bear market mechanism," which is expected to persist for a longer duration, leading to significant selling pressure on the dollar [1]. - The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy, prioritizing job market protection over strict inflation control, is seen as a driving force behind the dollar's bear market [4][6]. - Historical data shows that under the dollar bear market mechanism, other currencies tend to appreciate against the dollar with a frequency of 67-84% and substantial average gains [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The market is pricing in a decline of nearly 100 basis points in the dollar's interest rate advantage over the next 12 months, which will significantly reduce the cost of shorting the dollar [1][11]. - Investors have reported that the punitive interest rate spreads associated with shorting the dollar are a challenge, but Morgan Stanley anticipates a "spread relief" that will lower the costs by 50-75 basis points for most currencies, and nearly 150 basis points for USD/JPY [7][11]. Group 3: Government Shutdown Risks - The rising probability of a government shutdown adds new downward pressure on the dollar, as historical trends indicate that such shutdowns typically have a negative impact on the dollar's value [12]. - Current negative risk premium for the dollar is approximately -4%, and a government shutdown could exacerbate this situation, further increasing the risk premium [12]. - A government shutdown would also halt the release of government data, limiting the Federal Reserve's access to economic indicators before its meeting on October 29 [12][14].