Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on global economic growth, with expectations of a slowdown due to tariffs and restrictive immigration policies [17][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights that tariff-induced inflation is expected to rise, impacting growth forecasts across various regions, particularly in the US and Euro area [17][41]. - It anticipates a gradual cooling of economic growth in the US, with real GDP growth projected at 1.6% quarter-on-quarter for Q2 2025, and a potential trough in growth by the end of 2025 [13][41]. - In the Euro area, GDP growth for Q1 2025 was revised up to 0.6%, but a decline is expected in Q2 due to trade uncertainties [14][45]. - Japan's economy shows resilience in manufacturing, but inflationary pressures from food prices are becoming a concern [15][43]. - China's GDP is projected to grow 5.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, but a slowdown to around 4.5% is anticipated in the second half due to various economic strains [16][47]. - The report emphasizes that while the global economy is slowing, it is not expected to tip into recession, largely due to strong starting conditions at the beginning of the year [17]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - Real GDP growth is expected to be 1.6% quarter-on-quarter for Q2 2025, with inflation pressures leading to a cautious Federal Reserve stance [13][41]. - The labor market remains tight, but immigration restrictions are projected to lower net immigration significantly [41][43]. Euro Area Economic Outlook - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was revised to 0.6%, but a correction is expected in Q2 due to front-loaded exports and trade uncertainties [14][45]. - Inflation is projected to remain below the ECB's target through 2026, with expected rate cuts resuming in September [14][45]. Japan Economic Outlook - Nominal growth remains positive, with manufacturing sentiment holding up despite tariff risks [15][43]. - Food inflation is becoming sticky, pushing underlying inflation higher, while wage growth remains around 3% [15][43]. China Economic Outlook - GDP growth is projected at 5.2% year-on-year in 1H25, with a slowdown to around 4.5% in 2H25 anticipated [16][47]. - Persistent PPI deflation and modest core CPI gains indicate ongoing deflationary pressures [16][47]. Global Strategy Outlook - The report suggests that US risky and risk-free assets are attractive compared to the rest of the world, with a focus on US equities and core fixed income [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, emphasizing a focus on quality assets [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a global growth slowdown, forecasting a decline from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with the US experiencing a drop in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026 [1][7]. - The impact of tariffs is highlighted as a structural shock to the global trading order, affecting demand and supply across various economies, particularly in the US and China [1][7]. - Despite the anticipated slowdown, the report suggests that risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to less severe growth expectations [2][3]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, with the US at 1.0%, Euro Area at 0.8%, Japan at 0.3%, and Emerging Markets (EM) at 3.8% [8]. - Inflation rates are expected to be 2.1% globally and 3.0% in the US for 2025, with a gradual decline in subsequent years [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [5]. - For Japan, the focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries, while in Europe, the report recommends a shift towards resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging Markets are recommended to focus on financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Market Valuations - The report provides specific price targets and P/E ratios for major indices, including S&P 500 at 6,500 with a P/E of 21.5x, MSCI Europe at 2,250 with a P/E of 15.2x, and MSCI EM at 1,200 with a P/E of 12.5x [6].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is expected to report Q2 earnings on July 16, following a strong Q1 performance with record net revenues of $17.739 billion, indicating robust momentum in its operations [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The previous quarter showcased record net revenues of $17.739 billion for Morgan Stanley [1]. - The Institutional Securities segment experienced rapid growth, contributing to the overall strong performance [1]. Group 2: Investment Insights - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying stocks that exhibit both growth and quality factors, suggesting a focus on companies with strong growth narratives supported by solid financial statements [1].

Group 1 - Castle Securities has acquired Morgan Stanley's options market-making business, indicating a strategic move to enhance its trading capabilities [1] - The acquisition is expected to strengthen Castle Securities' position in the financial markets and expand its operational footprint [1] - This transaction reflects ongoing consolidation trends within the financial services industry, particularly in trading and market-making sectors [1]

Financial Restructuring - Morgan Stanley is seeking $950 million in leveraged loans [1] - The loans are intended to refinance BetaNXT's debt [1] Industry Activity - BetaNXT is a software platform company [1]

Group 1 - Global banks, including top U.S. banks, are expected to see a 10% growth in market revenue, driven by traders capitalizing on changes in U.S. tariff policies [1] - The forecast is based on a 15% increase in trading revenue for 12 global banks in Q1, which includes major players like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs [1][2] - Executives from Bank of America and Citigroup anticipate mid to high single-digit percentage growth in market revenue for Q2 following a strong Q1 performance [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that market revenue may exceed expectations when major U.S. banks report Q2 earnings next week, with significant trading activity noted after President Trump's tariff announcement in April [2] - Tradeweb Markets reported a 38.6% year-over-year increase in average daily trading volume in April, reaching $2.7 trillion, following the tariff policy announcement [2] - Mollie Devine from Crisil Coalition Greenwich noted that volatility is beneficial for market revenue, with tariff announcements acting as positive catalysts for trading departments [2] Group 3 - Stock trading revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-over-year in Q2, while bond trading revenue is expected to increase by 5% [3] - Analysts indicate that ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs, interest rates, and geopolitical factors are sustaining high levels of trading activity [3] - Predictions suggest that trading revenue for major U.S. banks will grow by 8% in the first half of the year, slowing to 5% in the second half, with low single-digit growth expected next year [3]

Group 1 - Major banks are tightening restrictions on hiring analysts from private equity firms [1] - Morgan Stanley has recently implemented a policy requiring analysts to disclose future employment intentions [1] - The policy aims to address potential conflicts of interest that may arise during transactions [1]

今年美股"最强交易"开始变盘了？ 动量策略今年在美股表现强劲。年初至今，在标普500仅上涨5%的情况下，高盛动量策略指数同期上涨了20%。如果把期限拓展到18个月，在标普500上涨 30%的情况下，高盛高Beta动量对冲指数（GSPRHIMO）同期涨幅达到惊人的80%。 历史数据揭示更深调整风险 摩根士丹利QDS主管Chris Metli表示，虽然当前事件的严重程度可能不及2月底至3月初DeepSeek引发的暴跌（当时MSZZMOMO篮子暴跌21%），但考虑 到持续的高空头杠杆，近期可能还有更多下跌空间。 历史统计显示，动量策略在经历6%回调后，未来一个月的回报通常为轻微负数（-1%）。更值得注意的是，典型的动量指数（MSZZMOMO）峰值到谷底的 跌幅为23%，持续时间约30个交易日。 目前的回调已进入第5天，6%的跌幅与历史同期中位数水平一致，这表明如果回调继续，仍有进一步下跌空间。 | | | | | Duration | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Long Leg | Short Leg | Net Factor | SPX ...

There's a tight race between Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for the top position in Hong Kong's booming deals market https://t.co/Zm0yIytXaR ...

美联储内部分歧达到十年之最，华尔街的观点也随之分裂。 华尔街见闻此前提及，根据6月点阵图，美联储官员对2025年利率预测呈现两极化分布，分歧程度创下十年新高。与此同时，华尔街投行对今年降息时机 的判断也出现了分歧。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在其最新研报中表示，受通胀胀风险和关税影响，预计2025年全年无降息，而花旗则在其研报中预计，9月就可能开启降 息周期，且后续每次会议都可能降息，直至政策利率降至3-3.25%。 大摩与花旗预测迥异 大摩报告明确表示，鉴于通胀压力和关税对消费及企业支出的拖累，2025年不会降息，预计2026年才会启动175个基点的降息周期。 大摩分析称，6月FOMC会议纪要偏鹰派，"大多数"官员仍担忧关税可能导致通胀持久化，甚至动摇通胀预期。如果通胀在6月至9月间加速上升，可能有 更多官员倾向于维持现有政策不变。 相反，花旗研究报告则对9月降息充满信心。 据花旗分析，尽管6月会议纪要显示部分官员对通胀风险的担忧加剧，但随着未来数据发布，通胀压力有望缓解，而劳动力市场疲软的迹象将进一步显 现。 花旗预计，9月FOMC会议后，美联储将启动降息，并在此后每次会议持续降息，直至政策利率降至3- ...