January 21, 2026 06:00 AM GMT Global FXEM, Commodities and Public Policy M Global Idea USD's Biggest Challenger Remains Gold USD's international footprint continues a gradual downward trajectory, but significant FX alternatives remain elusive, suggesting a lack of currency challengers amid multipolar world pressures. Instead, gold is rapidly gaining share, with no signs of stopping. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ | James K Lord | | | --- | --- ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海1月25日电（张天源）在美联储持续降息、借贷成本下降的背景下，美国华尔街大型银行正密集启动债券融资计划。业内人士指出，受人工智 能（AI）投资相关的融资需求推动，2026年美国公司债券市场将迎来新一轮发行潮，全年发行总量预计将达到约2.5万亿美元，但巨额融资也引发了市场对 于债务可持续性的担忧。 华尔街大行密集发债 近期，华尔街多家大型银行密集启动债券融资计划。其中，摩根大通宣布发行60亿美元债券，富国银行宣布发行80亿美元债券。摩根士丹利通过发行债券超 额筹资80亿美元。高盛集团通过发行投资级债券募资160亿美元，这是华尔街银行有史以来规模最大的该类债券发行。据中经社企业外债风险监测系统显 示，仅今年1月华尔街大行就将有逾350亿美元的新债涌入市场。 华尔街六大银行通常指美国六家最具重要性的综合性商业银行与投行集团，分别是摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团、富国银行、高盛集团和摩根士丹利。 2025年，这六大银行通过派息和股票回购向股东返还资本超1400亿美元，创历史新高，远超2019年的峰值水平。 业内人士表示，华尔街大行资本返还规模激增，既源于银行利润飙升，也得益于监管政策放松，让 ...

据中经社企业外债风险监测系统显示，本轮华尔街发债潮中，发行规模最大的高盛集团此次发行的债券 分为六档，期限跨度从3年至21年不等，既能满足短期流动性补充需求，也能锁定长期稳定资金，兼顾 灵活性与确定性。盈透证券最新研报指出，这种多期限搭配的策略，既能吸引追求稳健收益的短期投资 者，也能打动保险公司、养老基金等长期配置型机构，为债券顺利发行提供保障。 在美联储持续降息、借贷成本下降的背景下，美国华尔街大型银行正密集启动债券融资计划。业内人士 指出，受人工智能（AI）投资相关的融资需求推动，2026年美国公司债券市场将迎来新一轮发行潮， 全年发行总量预计将达到约2.5万亿美元，但巨额融资也引发了市场对于债务可持续性的担忧。 华尔街大行密集发债 据多家投行及信用评级机构披露，华尔街六大银行在近期公布2025年第四季度财报后迅速启动了债券融 资计划。巴克莱银行最新预测显示，2026年这六家银行在全球范围内发行的高评级债券总额或将达到 1880亿美元，同比增长约7%。 华尔街六大银行通常指美国六家最具重要性的综合性商业银行与投行集团，分别是摩根大通、美国银 行、花旗集团、富国银行、高盛集团和摩根士丹利。2025年，这六 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategists believe that recent aggressive policy measures from the White House will not significantly change the housing market landscape for prospective homebuyers by 2026 [1][2] Policy Measures - The administration's strategy includes a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, which initially tightened mortgage spreads by 15 basis points, lowering the 30-year mortgage rate below 6% for the first time since 2022 [3][4] Market Reaction - Despite the positive market reaction, Morgan Stanley argues that the market has already priced in the effects of Trump's intervention, and the existing low-rate mortgages limit the effectiveness of the new policy [4][15] Lock-in Effect - The "lock-in" effect is a significant barrier to housing market recovery, with approximately two-thirds of outstanding mortgages having interest rates below 5%. Additionally, 40% of U.S. homes are mortgage-free, exacerbating the lock-in situation [5][8] Demographic Trends - The aging population and lower birth rates are contributing to a slowdown in overall population growth, with the number of families with children under 18 declining from around 37 million in 2007 to approximately 33 million in 2024 [12] Housing Supply and Demand - Current home buying conditions are unfavorable due to high home prices, high mortgage rates, and declining immigration. The lock-in effect is causing existing homeowners to hesitate in selling, while new housing supply is rising, leading to downward pressure on home prices [17] Institutional Investors - Morgan Stanley dismisses the potential impact of a ban on large institutional investors purchasing single-family homes, stating that these investors do not own enough homes to significantly influence the market [17][18] Affordability Challenges - The affordability crisis is attributed to years of policy failures rather than institutional ownership. Solutions to improve affordability would require significant changes in home prices, interest rates, or buyer incomes [18] Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley suggests that further government actions could lower mortgage rates by an additional 50 basis points, but returning to the 4% range would require broader changes beyond GSE actions [20] Inventory Dynamics - New housing inventory is at its highest level since 2007, leading to lower prices for new homes compared to existing ones. Policymakers face challenges in balancing affordability with the exposure of 65% of U.S. households to housing prices as an asset [21]

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) ranks among the best financial stocks to buy according to billionaire Israel Englander. BofA Securities boosted Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)’s price target to $210 from $180 on January 7, retaining a Buy rating for the investment bank’s shares. The increase represents what BofA calls Morgan Stanley’s “strong franchise value,” as well as cyclical tailwinds in capital markets and an overall shift in the regulatory system. 4kclips/Shutterstock.com BofA Securities predicts a record year ...

Morgan Stanley's former autos analyst has big ideas in his new gig covering the robot economy. ...

Group 1 - Bank stocks experienced a decline on Friday, with Goldman Sachs (GS.US) falling over 3%, marking the largest intraday drop in two months [1] - JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) decreased by more than 1.3%, while Morgan Stanley (MS.US) dropped over 1.6%, and both Bank of America (BAC.US) and Citigroup (C.US) fell by more than 1% [1] - The decline in bank stocks is linked to a lawsuit filed by President Trump against JPMorgan Chase and its CEO Jamie Dimon, accusing the bank of illegally "de-banking" his business due to its political stance and placing it on an industry "blacklist" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are facing short-term pressure despite macroeconomic support due to weakening U.S. import momentum and a demand vacuum ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Import Dynamics - The surge in U.S. refined copper imports observed in December and early January has cooled down as the narrowing COMEX-LME price spread has eliminated financial incentives for continued large-scale imports [5][6]. - The market's adjustment to the expectations regarding Section 232 tariffs on refined copper has contributed to this change, as the anticipated tariffs were not implemented following the January 14 investigation results [5]. - Recent data indicates a significant inflow of copper into LME warehouses in the U.S., marking the first occurrence in nearly a year, which is suppressing LME prices and cross-period spreads [5][6]. Group 2: Chinese Demand Trends - China's apparent copper demand showed negative growth in December, while refined copper exports remained strong, leading to a seasonal increase in inventory [7]. - The upcoming data vacuum due to the Lunar New Year will add uncertainty to market conditions, with limited information on demand until mid-March [7]. - Despite global supply constraints, China's refined copper production is expected to grow by 10% in 2025, reaching a record high, supported by increased imports of copper concentrate and scrap [7]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply side is extremely constrained, with Morgan Stanley projecting only a 0.2% growth in copper mine supply for 2026, resulting in an estimated market deficit of around 600,000 tons [2][9]. - Significant supply disruptions, such as the strike at Capstone's Mantoverde mine, are expected to extend into 2026, limiting refined copper supply growth [2][9]. - Historical data indicates that copper mine supply growth rates have been volatile, with 2025 and 2026 expected to be at historical lows [9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley anticipates a market deficit of approximately 600,000 tons in 2026 due to limited mine supply growth (0.2%) not keeping pace with strong demand growth (1.8%) driven by new factors like data centers and energy storage systems [10]. - The macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive of metal prices, with expectations of further interest rate cuts bolstering demand for non-yielding assets [10]. - Despite a positive outlook for metals, including copper, prices have exceeded initial forecasts, and short-term volatility may arise due to uncertainties in U.S. import trends [10].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley announced the first dividend distribution for the 2026 fiscal year for its "Morgan Stanley Abundant 63-Month Periodic Open Bond Fund" on January 23 [1] Group 1: Dividend Distribution Details - The dividend distribution base date is set for January 1, 2026, with the record date for shareholders being January 27, 2026 [1] - Cash dividends will be distributed on January 29, 2026, and investors opting for reinvestment will base their new shares on the fund's net asset value as of January 27, 2026 [1] - The fund's registration agency will confirm the reinvested shares on January 28, 2026, and investors can check their status starting January 29, 2026 [1] Group 2: Tax and Fees - According to regulations from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, income from the fund's distribution is exempt from income tax for investors [1] - There are no fees for the dividend distribution, and investors choosing the reinvestment option will not incur subscription fees for the newly converted shares [1]

Morgan Stanley did everything right to justify a big bank at record highs. The bank achieved impressive earnings, experienced significant growth in wealth management, and implemented a strategy that was more effective than just hype. It's no surprise that Bank of America analysts reiterated a buy rating and raised its price objective to $220, with the stock changing hands at $191.23 when the report dropped. "The blueprint is in place," the analysts noted. Morgan Stanley management does not have to promi ...