Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks are bearish on the US dollar, predicting a decline as the Federal Reserve continues its easing cycle, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a 5% drop in the first half of next year [1][2]. Group 1: Predictions on the US Dollar - Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs anticipate a weakening of the dollar in 2026 due to the Fed's continued easing while other central banks maintain or raise rates [2]. - The Bloomberg consensus predicts a 3% decline in the dollar index by the end of 2026 [2]. - Morgan Stanley's David Adams states that the dollar has ample room for further depreciation, expecting a 5% drop in the first half of next year [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - A weaker dollar is expected to have a chain reaction on the US economy, increasing import costs, enhancing the value of overseas profits for companies, and boosting exports [4]. - The shift of investor funds to emerging markets for higher yields could extend the rally in these markets, with significant returns recorded in carry trades since 2009 [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Currency Trends - Analysts note that the dollar tends to depreciate when global economic performance is strong, with G10 currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars benefiting from better-than-expected data [5]. - Some institutions, like Citigroup and Standard Chartered, maintain a bullish outlook on the dollar, citing the strength of the US economy driven by AI and potential international capital inflows [5]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve has raised its growth forecast for 2026 while announcing a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [6]. - Market expectations include two more 25 basis point cuts next year, with a focus on the new Fed chair's potential influence on future rate decisions [6].

Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley's IB revenues hit $5.2B in the first nine months of 2025, rising 15% year over year.Lower financing costs from the Fed's rate cut are expected to spur more M&A and capital raising.CEO Ted Pick sees improving conditions supporting strategic deals and continued IB activity ahead.The Federal Reserve has implemented its third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut this year, reigniting investor optimism. The move is expected to support the ongoing strong resurgence in deal-making activ ...

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格隆汇12月12日｜摩根士丹利指出，最坏时刻已过，预期指数2026年将上涨14%至7800点。大摩策略师 Andrew Pauker提出四大理由，说明经济、企业获利与股市正处于成长周期初期：(1)企业获利预期修正 出现大幅反弹，指数的获利修正广度在4月触底至负25%，目前已回升至正15%左右。(2)薪资增长放 缓，让企业利润率有扩张空间。(3)消费者需求看来准备加速，企业开始展现更强的定价能力。(4)美联 储12月降息后，Pauker团队预期2026年还会有两次降息。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 策略师点名几个预期将表现突出的市场领域：(1)非必需消费品类股，此前该行对这类股票维持"减 持"评级已长达四年。该产业向来具有景气循环的特性，在经济复苏期间通常表现亮眼。(2)小型股，这 类股票通常具有周期性，而且更能受惠于利率下降。(3)金融股，商业与工业贷款成长明年可能改善， 这对业有利。 ...

策略师点名几个预期将表现突出的市场领域：(1)非必需消费品类股，此前该行对这类股票维持"减 持"评级已长达四年。该产业向来具有景气循环的特性，在经济复苏期间通常表现亮眼。(2)小型股，这 类股票通常具有周期性，而且更能受惠于利率下降。(3)金融股，商业与工业贷款成长明年可能改善， 这对银行业有利。此外，金融股的获利修正、估值与持仓都相当吸引人。 格隆汇12月12日｜摩根士丹利指出，最坏时刻已过，预期标普500指数2026年将上涨14%至7800点。大 摩美股策略师Andrew Pauker提出四大理由，说明经济、企业获利与股市正处于成长周期初期：(1)企业 获利预期修正出现大幅反弹，标普500 指数的获利修正广度在4月触底至负25%，目前已回升至正15%左 右。(2)薪资增长放缓，让企业利润率有扩张空间。(3)消费者需求看来准备加速，企业开始展现更强的 定价能力。(4)美联储12月降息后，Pauker团队预期2026年还会有两次降息。 ...

December 11, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific A-Share Sentiment Up on Higher Turnover Market sentiment has increased on higher turnover. We maintain a cautiously constructive stance and remain confident on further inflows. A more forceful fiscal pivot and improved US-China relations would turn us more bullish. A-share investor sentiment increased vs. previous cycle: Weighted MSASI increased by 6ppt, to 47% vs. the prior cutoff date (December 3), while weighted MSASI 1MMA decreased by 2 ...

Morgan Stanley, which has been a permabull on Tesla (TSLA), has downgraded the stock from an “Overweight” to “Equal-Weight” while raising its target price to $425 from $410. The news came as a shock to me, as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas had been among the biggest Tesla stock bulls in the sell-side community. However, the downgrade hasn’t come from Jonas, who has shifted to a new internal role focused on artificial intelligence (AI) companies, but from Andrew Percoco, who has assumed the coverage. S ...

海外资金今年以来呈现积极流入中国资产的态势。摩根士丹利披露的数据显示，截至今年11月，境外长 线资金通过沪深港通等渠道净买入约100亿美元的A股及H股，与2024年约170亿美元的资金流出形成鲜 明对比。 ◎记者 王彭 高盛最新发布的全球资金流向报告显示，在截至12月3日的一个月内，中国股票基金获得58.46亿美元净 流入，规模超过韩国、印度等市场。 在美联储降息的背景下，中国资产受全球资金青睐程度或将再提升。多家外资机构表示，中国经济展现 出韧性，市场估值具备吸引力，且政策环境持续优化，推动海外长线资金加速回流中国股市。从配置方 向看，外资重点关注科技成长、资源品、基本面改善行业及高股息板块。 海外中国ETF今年以来也持续"吸金"。富途数据显示：截至12月9日，中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares 资产规模为89.14亿美元，较去年底的54.14亿美元增长35亿美元；MSCI中国ETF-iShares资产规模为 78.78亿美元，较去年底的54.51亿美元增长24.27亿美元。 "根据我们最近的全球路演反馈，国际投资者对中国股票市场的兴趣依然强烈。"摩根士丹利中国首席股 票策略师王滢称。 沪上一位外 ...

Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images Morgan Stanley says we're early on in an economic cycle with earnings set to grow. Falling wage growth, rising consumer demand, and Fed rate cuts also support market upside. The bank is bullish on consumer discretionary, small-cap, and financials stocks. There are some ominous signals out there that suggest we're in the late stages of the economic cycle, but Morgan Stanley says investors should tune out the noise and brace for more growth ahead. ADP private payrol ...

今日（12月11日）晚间，美股道指与纳指走势突然背离，中概股盘中直线走低。黄金再度直线拉升。 消息面上，美国上周23.6万人首次申领失业救济金，和前一周修正后首次申请失业救济金的人数相比增 加了44000人。 晚间，美国有两则经济数据值得关注。 美国商务部长卢特尼克则最新表示，希望美联储进一步降息。 据最新消息，摩根大通、摩根士丹利与花旗一致预测，明年1月美联储将再次降息。美国商务部长也表 达了希望美联储继续降息的愿望。 今日晚间，美股开盘后涨跌不一，其中，纳指跌幅较大，道指拉涨。 美股个股方面，明星科技股甲骨文大跌逾15%，公司宣布FY2026财年资本支出预期将比Q1后的预测多 出150亿美元. 美国劳工部周四数据显示，截至12月6日当周，初请人数增加4.4万人至23.6万人，为2020年3月以来最大 增幅，此前一周的申请人数为三年多来的最低水平。 此外，美国最新进出口数据也公布了，美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，9月进口3421亿美元，前值 3404亿美元。9月出口 2893亿美元，前值2808亿美元。贸易逆差意外收窄至2020年以来最低水平。 美国当地时间10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会 ...