January 26, 2026 01:06 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | North America M Idea Five USD Factors: Where Do We Stand? The USD bear case has softened as US growth has been surprisingly resilient, but four forces still skew weaker: strong ex- US data, lingering policy risk, an undervalued JPY, and a rising CNY. Key Takeaways Click here to be added to this email distribution list. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Andrew M Watrous Strategist Andrew.Watrous@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5287 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ D ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利概述了10项投资预测，旨在帮助投资者应对该行所描述的"极端市场波 动期"。 5. 能源政治学： 全球能源成本的上升将引发对数据中心扩张的反弹，从而促使政策转向支持低成本能 源解决方案。随着企业和政府寻求替代方案，预计数据中心项目将增加"离网"供电策略的开发。 摩根士丹利股票策略师斯蒂芬·C·伯德将分析核心聚焦于四个关键主题：人工智能/技术扩散、能源未 来、"多极世界"以及社会变革。 根据伯德的观点，社会变革涵盖了人工智能驱动的就业颠覆、人口老龄化、消费者偏好改变、对健康长 寿的追求，以及多个地区面临的人口结构挑战所带来的连锁反应。 1. 大语言模型(LLM)进展与AI应用的"两个世界"： 美国的尖端大语言模型将在2026年上半年实现能力 的阶梯式飞跃。尽管对AI采用率的担忧可能在年初占据主导，但摩根士丹利预计，随着AI能力的非线 性增长带来广泛效益，看涨情绪将在下半年显现。 2. 算力需求超过供给： 人工智能应用的普及和使用场景复杂性的增加，将推动算力资源的净需求呈指 数级增长。尽管需求激增，但供应增长仍将落后。不过，摩根士丹利新的"智能工厂(Intelligence Facto ...

大摩闭门会：2026强势开局，然后呢？260123_导读 2026年01月25日 15:43 大摩闭门会：2026强势开局，然后呢？260123_导读 2026年01月25日 15:43 关键词 CSI300 恒生指数 盈利增速 市盈率 夏普比率 摩根士丹利 新兴市场 标普500 净资产收益率 ROE产业升级 人工智能 科技创新 财政政策 货币政策 房地产市场 新开工面积 房价 MSCI中国 人民币汇率 关键词 CSI300 恒生指数 盈利增速 市盈率 夏普比率 摩根士丹利 新兴市场 标普500 净资产收益率 ROE产业升级 人工智能 科技创新 财政政策 货币政策 房地产市场 新开工面积 房价 MSCI中国 人民币汇率 全文摘要 2026年初，中国股市展现强劲回升势头，背后推动力量包括企业盈利改善、科技创新加速以及政策面的支持。尽 管全球环境充满不确定性，摩根斯坦利仍对MSCI中国指数及其他新兴市场持乐观态度，预计2024年中后市场开始 反弹，强调了中国股市在风险调整后收益上的相对吸引力。对话还预测了亚洲主要股市的未来目标点位，并分析 了影响中国股市的七大关键因素，包括盈利预测、行业展望、宏观经济环境、房地产 ...

BloombergTrades focused on Latin American currencies are among the top performers. The Brazilian real, for instance, has already returned 4.5% so far in 2026, building on last year’s 23.5%. The country’s interest rates are at 15% even though inflation has slowed toward the central bank’s target range. The Mexican peso’s carry trade has returned 4.3% this year, with Deutsche Bank maintaining a bullish stance on the currency.Citi strategists too are among those recommending buying the real against the dollar ...

格隆汇1月26日｜摩根士丹利预计，在日益加剧的地缘政治不确定性以及央行和ETF买盘的支撑下，金 价可能在下半年达到每盎司5,700美元。这家美国银行的分析师表示："我们认为金价尚未见顶。"近期 的央行购买趋势表明，黄金正日益被视为储备中美元的主要竞争对手。"我们历来假设，央行主要将黄 金持有量视为储备的一个百分比，这意味着随着价格上涨，购买量会减少。"但波兰最近决定提高其黄 金目标，这表明尽管价格高企，该国仍将继续从绝对量上进行购买。如果其他央行效仿，大量购买的势 头可能会持续。与此同时，ETF需求依然强劲，尤其是在北美和亚洲。摩根士丹利表示，在美联储可能 于2026年降息的背景下，强劲的实物黄金需求预计将持续。 ...

January 23, 2026 05:00 AM GMT Oil Data Digest | Europe M Update Key Agency Revisions – January 2026 We summarise January oil market forecasts from the IEA, EIA and OPEC. The IEA's estimate for the 2026 oil market has shrunk marginally on a small upgrade to OECD Europe demand but still sees a 3.7 mb/d imbalance. The EIA's surplus estimate grows to 2.8 mb/d on weaker demand outlook. Key Takeaways This report summarises estimates from the IEA, OPEC and the EIA, and compares them with our latest estimates from ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts a differentiated landscape for global AI technology development by 2026, with significant growth in computing power demand surpassing supply capabilities, and strong policy initiatives from the Trump administration [2][3][4]. Group 1: AI Technology Development - The report anticipates a leap in capabilities for leading AI models in the U.S. by mid-2026, while competitors in other regions will struggle to achieve similar advancements, creating a "two worlds" scenario in AI development [5]. - Market sentiment regarding AI adoption is expected to shift from concerns in early 2026 to optimism later in the year, driven by non-linear growth in AI capabilities [5]. Group 2: Computing Power Demand - The proliferation of AI applications and increasing complexity of use cases will lead to an exponential growth in computing power demand, which will outpace supply growth [6]. Group 3: Policy Initiatives - The Trump administration is predicted to implement stronger policies than expected, focusing on ensuring domestic supply of critical minerals, uranium, and metals, supporting manufacturing return, increasing military spending, and lowering consumer costs [7]. Group 4: AI Technology Transfer - There will be increasing pressure for AI technology transfer globally, as disparities in national AI capabilities may affect trade dynamics, with countries pursuing self-sufficiency and enhancing "domestic intelligence" [8]. Group 5: Energy Costs and Policies - Rising global energy costs will trigger a backlash against data center growth, leading to the introduction of low-cost energy support policies and encouraging data center projects to adopt off-grid power strategies [9]. Group 6: Integration of Energy Infrastructure - Major AI companies will accelerate the integration of energy infrastructure to control their energy destiny, secure the most reliable and cost-effective energy sources, and enhance energy efficiency through AI [11]. Group 7: Global Manufacturing Landscape - China is expected to increase its share in key technology-intensive industries, while the U.S. manufacturing balance will tilt towards domestic production as technology diffusion diminishes the advantage of low-cost labor [12]. Group 8: Investment Cycle in Latin America - Policy shifts, geopolitical changes, and peak interest rates will drive Latin America into a new investment cycle, characterized by investment-led growth rather than consumption [13]. Group 9: Retraining Initiatives - Companies and governments will launch extensive retraining programs to address employment changes driven by AI, with political sensitivity around perceived job losses prompting various policy interventions [14]. Group 10: Transformative AI Impact - By the second half of 2026, transformative AI is expected to lead to early signs of rapid price declines across multiple sectors, exacerbating wage inequality, increasing capital expenditures, and putting upward pressure on interest rates, thereby reshaping national competitiveness [15].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's 2026 market outlook highlights four major themes: AI technology diffusion, future energy, a multipolar world, and social change, presenting ten key predictions for investors to understand the evolving market landscape driven by technology [1] Group 1: AI Technology and Market Dynamics - The development of global AI technology is expected to show a bifurcated pattern, with the U.S. leading in advanced models while other regions lag behind, creating a "two worlds" scenario in AI development [2] - There will be an exponential growth in computing power demand driven by the proliferation of AI applications, which will outpace supply growth, fundamentally changing the economics of data centers [3] Group 2: Policy and Geopolitical Implications - The Trump administration is predicted to implement stronger policies than expected, focusing on securing domestic supplies of critical minerals, supporting manufacturing return, increasing military spending, and lowering consumer costs [4] - There will be increasing pressure for AI technology transfer and a push for national self-sufficiency, affecting trade dynamics and leading countries to enhance their domestic AI capabilities [5] Group 3: Energy and Infrastructure - Rising global energy costs will trigger a backlash against data center growth, prompting the introduction of low-cost energy support policies and encouraging data centers to adopt off-grid power strategies [6] - Major AI companies will accelerate the integration of energy infrastructure to secure reliable and cost-effective energy sources, enhancing energy efficiency through AI [7] Group 4: Manufacturing and Investment Trends - China is expected to increase its share in the global manufacturing market in key tech-intensive sectors, while the U.S. manufacturing landscape will shift towards domestic production as technology diffusion diminishes the low-cost labor advantage [8] - Latin America is entering a new investment cycle driven by policy shifts, geopolitical changes, and peak interest rates, with this bull market being investment-led rather than consumption-driven [9] Group 5: Workforce and Economic Transformation - Companies and governments will initiate extensive retraining programs to address employment changes driven by AI, responding to the political sensitivity surrounding job displacement caused by AI applications [10] - Transformative AI is anticipated to reshape the economy and asset valuations, with early signs of price declines across multiple sectors by the second half of 2026, leading to increased wage inequality and upward pressure on capital expenditures and interest rates [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the upcoming January FOMC meeting will maintain interest rates unchanged, focusing on the tone of the statement [1][2] Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, indicating a tactical adjustment rather than a return to a tightening cycle [2] - The statement is likely to upgrade the economic growth assessment from "moderate" to "robust" and remove references to "increased risks to employment," suggesting reduced concerns about the labor market [2][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts a dissenting vote from a board member advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut [2] Group 2: Market Strategy and Liquidity - Despite the Fed's pause on rate cuts, the short-term financing market remains loose, with repo rates normalizing below the interest on reserve balances (IORB), indicating an "excessively ample" cash situation [5] - The Fed is expected to maintain reserve levels by purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bills monthly, with projections for the SOMA account holdings to exceed $600 billion by the end of 2026 [6] Group 3: Currency Outlook - Morgan Stanley has revised its outlook on the foreign exchange market, now projecting a stronger U.S. economy with a GDP growth forecast of 2.4% for 2026, delaying the anticipated rate cuts [8] - Despite this, the firm maintains a moderately bearish view on the dollar due to synchronized global growth and undervaluation of the Japanese yen, which is expected to converge [9] Group 4: Asset Class Focus - In the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) sector, the significant $200 billion purchase plan by government-sponsored enterprises has led to a narrowing of MBS spreads, prompting a neutral stance from Morgan Stanley [11] - The municipal bond market shows solid fundamentals but is considered expensive, with low yield ratios compared to corporate bonds, raising concerns about sustainability if the Fed signals ambiguity rather than a clear dovish stance [11]

研究发现，英国企业因AI削减或放弃补充约四分之一的职位，这一比例与其他国家的同行相似。但英 国企业因该技术而扩大招聘的可能性明显更低。对许多企业而言，技术投资已开始产生回报，近半数英 国企业报告了更大幅度的生产率提升。 位于伦敦东北部切姆斯福德的EHF Mortgages董事总经理Justin Moy表示："雇佣员工的成本不断上升， 正促使越来越多的小企业使用AI和外包解决方案来完成传统上由本地员工担任的角色，而这些人现在 正失去这些机会。" 白领和年轻人首当其冲 摩根士丹利最新研究显示，英国正成为人工智能技术冲击就业市场最严重的发达国家，过去12个月因 AI导致的净裁员率达到8%，远超国际同行。 摩根士丹利的研究涵盖了美国、德国、日本和澳大利亚等国企业，英国企业因AI导致的净裁员率是国 际平均水平的两倍。尽管英国企业通过AI实现了平均11.5%的生产率提升，与美国企业几乎相当，但美 国企业在应用AI的同时反而创造了更多就业岗位。 这一趋势正值英国雇主面临工资成本上升、经济增长缓慢和政治不稳定性加剧之际。官方数据显示，英 国企业正以2020年以来最快速度裁员，失业率已升至近五年高位。最低工资大幅上涨和国民保险 ...