周末，两则利好消息刷屏！ 7月26日，话题#全球资管巨头"抄底"中国房地产#冲上百度热搜，引发大量关注。据悉，全球资管巨头施罗德 资本旗下房地产投资部门，近日与浙江企业西子国际联合发起总规模约30亿元的私募房地产股权投资基金， 聚焦长三角核心城市的写字楼、消费基础设施投资机会。有业内人士指出，外资巨头宣布加仓中国不动产，信 号意义明显。 同日，据央视新闻报道，中国二季度经济数据公布后，陆续有十多家外资金融机构或者国际投行上调了对中国 经济增长的预测，其中不少在半年内进行了连续调升。政策的持续发力，是吸引外资上调预期的关键因素。 二级市场上，近期A股市场持续上涨，7月25日小幅调整。有研究机构指出，短期市场仍将以震荡上行为 主。"反内卷"政策强度不断升级，有望成为持续投资主线。 外资机构看好中国经济 近日，摩根士丹利在其年中展望报告中，将2025年中国经济增速预期上调0.3个百分点，对明后两年的经济增 速预期也分别上调0.2个百分点；高盛也上调了今年二季度和下半年的中国环比GDP增速预测，并将2025年全 年GDP增速预测上调0.6个百分点。 此外，野村将中国2025年GDP增速预测上调0.5个百分点，摩根大通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a positive sentiment towards China's economy and real estate market, driven by foreign investment and optimistic economic forecasts from international financial institutions. Group 1: Foreign Investment in Real Estate - Global asset management giant Schroders Capital has partnered with Zhejiang-based Xizi International to launch a private real estate equity investment fund with a total scale of approximately 3 billion yuan, focusing on investment opportunities in core cities of the Yangtze River Delta [1][10] - Other foreign investment firms, such as the American commercial real estate group Hines and Temasek, have also established private funds in China, indicating a growing interest and investment willingness from foreign institutions [11] - The real estate sector is currently at a historical low in valuation, and policies are being implemented to stabilize the market, creating opportunities for foreign capital to enter [12] Group 2: Economic Growth Forecasts - Following the release of China's Q2 economic data, over a dozen foreign financial institutions and international investment banks have raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs among those increasing their GDP growth predictions for 2025 by 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively [4][5] - The consistent policy support aimed at boosting domestic consumption and stabilizing financial markets has been a key factor in attracting foreign investment and improving economic outlooks [6] Group 3: Manufacturing Sector Strength - Experts from various foreign institutions emphasize the resilience of China's manufacturing sector, which benefits from a complete industrial chain and competitive advantages in cost and quality [8] - The acceleration of high-end, intelligent, and green development in domestic manufacturing is highlighted, with a focus on high-tech and green products such as semiconductors and electric vehicles [9] - China's advancements in high-end manufacturing, particularly in the field of new energy vehicles, are noted as significant achievements in global technology progress [10] Group 4: A-Share Market Trends - The A-share market has shown a recent upward trend, with a slight adjustment noted on July 25, where the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.33% [15] - Analysts predict that the market will continue to experience a steady upward trend, driven by moderate economic recovery and increased long-term capital inflows [16] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to become a sustained investment theme, with a focus on sectors such as semiconductors and internet services [16]

Economic Growth Predictions - Several foreign financial institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth following the release of Q2 economic data, with many making consecutive adjustments within six months [1] - Morgan Stanley increased its 2025 growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points, while other institutions like DBS, Nomura, and Goldman Sachs raised their forecasts by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.6 percentage points respectively [1] Industrial Performance - The strong performance of the industrial sector, including electricity, construction, and manufacturing, has been a key driver of economic activity, maintaining growth for 15 consecutive months [3] - Policies such as the appliance replacement program and consumer subsidies have effectively boosted retail sectors, particularly in home appliances, smartphones, and automobiles [3] International Trade - Demand for Chinese exports from economies outside the U.S. remains robust, contributing to a trade surplus in the first half of the year [5] - High net inflows of trade funds and strong export data have been noted by foreign financial institutions [3] Manufacturing Sector - China's manufacturing sector is highlighted as a key strength, supported by a complete industrial system that provides solid backing for the domestic market and serves global markets [10] - The acceleration of high-end, intelligent, and green development in manufacturing is a focal point for foreign research reports [10] Technological Advancements - China is significantly enhancing the added value of its manufacturing, focusing on high-tech and green products such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and robotics [10] - The country is making substantial progress in global technological advancement and introducing high-quality new products to the global market [10] Economic Resilience - Foreign financial institutions describe China's economy with the term "resilience," attributing this to continuous policy support, improving macroeconomic conditions, and various micro-level highlights [12] - The economy is characterized as "flexible," capable of adapting to various domestic and international economic situations while maintaining stable growth [15][16]

July 21, 2025 02:55 PM GMT Global EM Strategist Trend = Friend The USD rebound in July has been modest as policy uncertainty has offset resilient macro data. USD positioning is now neutral. We expect EM local markets to regain their footing as the medium-term trend of duration and FX gains reasserts itself. Key Takeaways The 2025 Extel Global Fixed Income Poll is now open and your participation matters a great deal to us. If you have found our Global FX and EM research insightful and helpful, we would great ...

美资公司首次试水熊猫债，摩根士丹利20亿元人民币债已定价。（彭博） ...

【导读】美国总统特朗普造访美联储！美联储史上首次召开银行资本监管公开会议 美东时间7月24日周四，美股收盘涨跌不一，道指跌超300点，纳指与标普500指数再创新高。特朗普造访美联储，就利率问题展开讨论。美联储召开历史 上首次银行资本监管公开会议。 纳指、标普500指数再创新高 截至收盘，道指跌316.38点，跌幅为0.70%，报44693.91点；纳指涨37.94点，涨幅为0.18%，报21057.96点；标普500指数涨4.44点，涨幅为0.07%，报 6363.35点。 美国总统特朗普造访美联储，美国《纽约时报》评论称，特朗普此行标志他对美联储施压行动升级。特朗普表示，跟美联储主席鲍威尔讨论了利率问题， 称"这次谈话很有成效"。 特朗普表示，希望鲍威尔能降低利率，如果把利率降低三个百分点至一个百分点，美国就能省下一万多亿美元。他将观察委员会如何制定利率规则。特朗 普就解雇美联储主席鲍威尔一事表示，这将是一个大动作。此外，特朗普提及翻修工程数据。鲍威尔表示，预计翻修工程将会在2027年完成。特朗普称， 他通常会解雇超出预算的项目经理。 美国财长贝森特称，可能会在今年12月或明年1月宣布新一任美联储主席提名人 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Consumer Sector** and its performance as indicated by the **Five-factor Consumer Activity Z-Score** compared to **MSCI China** [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Consumer Activity Decline**: Consumer activity weakened in June 2025, as evidenced by a decline in the Five-factor Consumer Activity Z-Score [6][7]. - **Contributing Factors**: The decline in consumer activity is attributed to: - Early promotions in May - Temporary suspension of subsidies - Tighter government control on entertainment [7]. - **Mixed Signals**: While commodity retail sales and catering softened, there were slight improvements in household loans, air passenger travel, and passenger car sales [7]. - **Future Outlook**: The payback of export front-loading and delayed new stimulus measures may pressure consumer sentiment in the upcoming months [7]. - **Government Actions**: The impact of recent government efforts to control price wars among e-commerce platforms remains uncertain [7]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report includes a detailed analysis of five key factors influencing consumer activity: 1. Year-over-year change in household loans 2. Year-over-year change in retail sales in catering 3. Year-over-year change in retail sales in commodities (excluding autos) 4. Year-over-year change in passenger car retail sales (3-month moving average) 5. Year-over-year change in air passenger traffic (3-month moving average) [2][6]. This comprehensive analysis provides a nuanced view of the current state of the consumer sector in China, highlighting both challenges and areas of slight improvement.

摩根士丹利银行业分析师肯尼指出，监管提案将加快落地，未来资本要求或趋于宽松。 AI首度写入监管议程 监管重心转向支持增长 此次会议核心讨论议题包括：压力测试机制、系统重要性附加资本的计算方法、巴塞尔协议终局实施路 径以及补充杠杆率（eSLR）的改革可能。多位与会银行高管和监管代表对现行规则提出批评，指出 其"过于复杂、成本高企且过度约束"。肯尼对第一财经表示："无一发言者主张提高资本水平。相反， 多方对简化监管表达了一致诉求。" 根据摩根士丹利的数据，截至2025年一季度，美国大型银行共计持有1960亿美元超额资本，占比达 16%。在银行体系普遍资本充足的背景下，复杂和重叠的资本要求被认为已对信贷投放、金融创新与市 场竞争构成制约。与会讨论显示，目前存在"重复计提"问题，例如交易账簿规则（FRTB）与全球市场 冲击测试（GMS）指标在风险加权计算上存在重合，压力资本缓冲（SCB）中的分红附加也与其他资 本要求结构性重叠。 围绕GSIB附加资本机制，不少与会者建议调整"方法二"中的计算系数，参照美国名义GDP的增长对短 期批发融资等关键指标设限，也有建议回归国际较为通行的"方法一"加逆周期缓冲机制的计算路径。肯 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley is under investigation by FINRA for customer identity verification issues related to money laundering risks, highlighting the need for advanced AI models in customer screening and risk management [1][2] - The investigation focuses on customer and risk rating reports from October 2021 to September 2024, with potential fines due to shortcomings in anti-money laundering measures [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has invested significantly in anti-money laundering projects and customer verification processes, which have positively impacted its core business [1] Group 2 - FINRA has requested information from Morgan Stanley's wealth management and trading departments, indicating ongoing scrutiny of customer risk rating deficiencies [2] - The traditional screening systems have shown vulnerabilities, prompting the need for AI-driven solutions to enhance compliance and reduce human error in transaction monitoring [2] - Following the rise of ChatGPT, Wall Street firms are investing heavily in developing proprietary AI assistants to improve operational efficiency and risk analysis [2] Group 3 - A Bank of America survey indicates that AI-related software spending is a top priority for companies, with expectations for AI spending to reach 27.7% of software budgets by mid-2025, increasing to 31.6% by 2026 [3] - Anthropic, a competitor to OpenAI, reported an annual revenue of approximately $3 billion, demonstrating strong demand for generative AI applications in the business sector [3] - The surge in Anthropic's revenue is attributed to the sale of customized AI models to enhance operational efficiency within enterprises, indicating a significant growth trend in enterprise-level AI applications [3]

July 22, 2025 10:00 PM GMT India Economics and Strategy | Asia Pacific Building Blocks of India's Prosperity If states don't implement policies that enhance growth and protect macro stability, India will struggle to achieve its potential outcomes. Without understanding India's states, investors can hardly be confident about India's macro story. Why investors cannot afford to miss this report: In Why This Is India's Decade, we opined that India will drive a fifth of global growth in the coming decade and bec ...