今日（12月11日）晚间，美股道指与纳指走势突然背离，中概股盘中直线走低。黄金再度直线拉升。 消息面上，美国上周23.6万人首次申领失业救济金，和前一周修正后首次申请失业救济金的人数相比增 加了44000人。 晚间，美国有两则经济数据值得关注。 美国商务部长卢特尼克则最新表示，希望美联储进一步降息。 据最新消息，摩根大通、摩根士丹利与花旗一致预测，明年1月美联储将再次降息。美国商务部长也表 达了希望美联储继续降息的愿望。 今日晚间，美股开盘后涨跌不一，其中，纳指跌幅较大，道指拉涨。 美股个股方面，明星科技股甲骨文大跌逾15%，公司宣布FY2026财年资本支出预期将比Q1后的预测多 出150亿美元. 美国劳工部周四数据显示，截至12月6日当周，初请人数增加4.4万人至23.6万人，为2020年3月以来最大 增幅，此前一周的申请人数为三年多来的最低水平。 此外，美国最新进出口数据也公布了，美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，9月进口3421亿美元，前值 3404亿美元。9月出口 2893亿美元，前值2808亿美元。贸易逆差意外收窄至2020年以来最低水平。 美国当地时间10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会 ...

EQS Voting Rights Announcement: Bilfinger SEBilfinger SE: Release according to Article 40, Section 1 of the WpHG [the German Securities Trading Act] with the objective of Europe-wide distribution 11.12.2025 / 16:24 CET/CESTDissemination of a Voting Rights Announcement transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group.The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.Notification of Major Holdings1. Details of issuerName: Bilfinger SEStreet: Oskar-Meixner-Straße 1Postal code: 68163City: Ma ...

December 10, 2025 04:05 PM GMT Macro Webcast | Asia Pacific M Foundation Asia Economics: Why China will widen its lead in global manufacturing exports Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Chetan Ahya Chief Asia Economist Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7812 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. Downloaded by Neil.Wang@troweprice.com Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley M Foundation Chetan Ahya Chief Asia Economist 2 M Founda ...

December 11, 2025 01:28 AM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America December FOMC Reaction: Well Positioned to Wait and See How the Economy Evolves The Fed reduced the funds rate by 25bp but signaled that future adjustments will be more data dependent, as we expected. We continue to expect further cuts in January and April, but if the labor market stabilizes, then future cuts may not come until inflation decelerates. Key expectations | M December 11, 2025 01:28 AM GMT December FOMC Reaction: | Chief US E ...

Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer, says labor market data revisions could eventually drive the Fed to lower rates further. https://t.co/dBXSFcw9Za ...

智通财经APP注意到，油价经历了自疫情以来表现最差的一年，而华尔街认为跌势尚未结束。 根据美国银行、花旗集团、高盛集团、摩根大通和摩根士丹利的预测平均值，目前交易价格在每桶62美 元左右的布伦特原油期货，将在2026年进一步下滑至约59美元。今年，这一国际基准价格已下跌了 17%。 石油过剩问题愈演愈烈 在高盛、花旗、摩根大通、摩根士丹利和美国银行这五大行中，高盛集团持有最悲观的预测，其年度均 价为每桶56美元，而花旗集团则最为乐观，预测均价为62美元。这与两家银行过去经常采取的立场有所 不同。 高盛认为，在新冠疫情期间被推迟的石油项目将投入运营，为市场带来新的供应。花旗集团则认为，中 国持续的库存囤积将阻止过剩供应对油价造成更大的冲击。 而美国银行则假设欧佩克+在第一季度的计划性暂停后，将恢复增产。 这五家银行的平均预测显示，由于全球产量超过需求增长，全球石油市场明年将面临约220万桶/日的过 剩。 这些银行预测的过剩量低于主要经济体顾问机构国际能源署(IEA)的估计。IEA预计将出现创纪录的400 万桶/日的巨大过剩，不过IEA也认为石油生产国的调整可能会抑制过剩的规模。 摩根大通预计，石油过剩将小于账面 ...

钛媒体App 12月10日消息，摩根士丹利投资管理公司在其展望报告中表示，目前10年期美债收益率接近 4%的水平相对于美国经济前景而言可能过低。该公司认为，2026年经济增长正面临日益增强的顺风因 素。"更强的增长与顽固的通胀相结合，很可能使美联储在未来12至18个月内降息幅度少于当前市场定 价的水平。"在此背景下，摩根士丹利投资管理公司对美债采取低配立场。（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has risen to nearly 90% from about 30% three weeks ago, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a potential "Santa Rally" in the stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%–3.75% [2]. - Concerns about the labor market are driving the rationale for rate cuts, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 2022 [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased to $6.5 trillion, with bank reserves at $2.9 trillion, leading to speculation about the potential resumption of quantitative easing to enhance market liquidity [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally," as December typically shows strong seasonal performance for U.S. stocks [5]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has historically outperformed other indices in December, with an average increase of 1.7%, and if it records positive returns, the average gain could rise to 6% [6]. - The Russell 2000 index has shown even stronger performance, with a December average return of 2.3% and a monthly average positive return of 4.3%, indicating its stability and potential for higher returns compared to major benchmarks [6]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Major Wall Street firms maintain a positive outlook for the market heading into 2026, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points, supported by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [7]. - Bank of America adopts a more cautious stance, forecasting the S&P 500 to end 2026 at 7100 points, citing concerns over liquidity and the shift in capital expenditure priorities [8]. - There is a consensus among institutions regarding the ongoing earnings divergence, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have greater recovery potential [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with market sentiment shifting towards a potential "Santa Rally" in the stock market as traders prepare for year-end performance [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The market anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [4]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that the labor market is weakening, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, indicating potential negative impacts on consumer spending [5][6]. - There is speculation about the Fed potentially restarting balance sheet expansion to increase market liquidity, with current assets at $6.5 trillion and bank reserves at $2.9 trillion [6][7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally," as December typically shows strong seasonal performance for U.S. stocks [8][9]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has historically shown the highest returns in December, with an average increase of 1.7%, while the S&P 500 index has a 75.6% probability of positive returns [10]. Group 3: Wall Street Outlook for 2026 - Major Wall Street firms maintain a positive outlook for the market, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points in the next 12 months, driven by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [12]. - Bank of America adopts a more cautious stance, forecasting a target of 7100 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, citing concerns over liquidity and capital expenditure trends [13]. - Barclays notes a continuing trend of earnings divergence, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have greater recovery potential [14].

Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson thinks the Fed has been slow to cut rates into the start of a new bull market, which could mean more rate cuts in 2026 than expected, supporting stocks. Wilson's view underpins Morgan Stanley's bullish take on U.S. stocks, contrasting others' calls for anemic growth in the coming years. Investors can find confirmation that a new bull market began in April in S&P 500 constituents' earnings, which are now growing close to 10%, the best in four years, according to Wilson. "That ...