大摩研究发现，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数出现极端共振（波动超1.25个标准差）时，可预测美元未来6个月走势。两大做空美元信号："金发姑 娘"情景（股市涨、美元和美债跌）成功率83%，平均跌3.3%，英镑表现最佳；"全面上涨"情景（三者齐涨）成功率73%，平均跌2.7%，澳元领涨。 2025年已出现多次此类信号，显示市场波动处历史高位。 摩根士丹利最新研究指出，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数三者出现极端"共振"时，往往预示美元强势周期即将反转。 10月20日，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称，当标普500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率出现极端"共振"时，美元在未来6个月内往往呈现可预测的走 势模式。 该行策略师Molly Nickolin等指出，通过分析过去25年中，标普500指数、10年期美债收益率和美元指数三者同时发生极端波动（超过1.25个标准差）的 交易日，发现两个明确指向美元在未来六个月内走弱的强力信号。 该行称，历史数据表明，在"金发姑娘"情景(股市大涨超过1.25个标准差、美元和美债收益率同时下跌超过1.25个标准差)，以及"全面上涨"情景（标普 500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率三 ...

摩根士丹利迈克尔・威尔逊表示，美股仍面临贸易紧张及盈利修正放缓的未决风险，短期内投资者应保 持谨慎。标普 500 指数尚未挽回本月初的损失。与此同时，就在财报季全面展开之际，盈利修正正逐步 放缓。此外，两家区域银行因贷款问题爆发危机后，信贷市场出现裂痕，进一步加剧了市场恐慌情绪。 该策略团队在一份报告中写道："在宣布短期内不再面临进一步回调风险之前，有必要看贸易局势明确 缓和、每股收益（EPS）修正趋于稳定，以及市场流动性更为充足 —— 这几点至关重要。" 来源：视频滚动新闻 ...

格隆汇10月20日｜摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson指出，股市仍面临贸易紧张局势和企业盈利修正放 缓等未解风险，这些因素将促使投资者在短期内保持谨慎。标普500指数尚未收复本月早些时候贸易关 系紧张升级带来的跌幅。与此同时，正当财报季进入高潮之际，盈利修正速度（即分析师上调与下调盈 利预测的数量比）正在放缓。两家地区银行贷款暴雷后信贷市场出现的裂痕，进一步加剧了市场不安。 Wilson在报告中写道："必须看到更明确的贸易局势缓和迹象、每股收益预测趋于稳定、以及更充裕的 流动性，才能宣告短期进一步回调风险已彻底解除。"尽管短期持谨慎态度，但Wilson认为其"滚动式经 济复苏"理论在未来6-12个月内依然成立。 ...

KBW将花旗集团的目标价从112美元上调至118美元，将摩根士丹利的目标价从176美元上调至184美 元。(格隆汇) ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (10.13-10.17) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油继续走低，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶57.25美元，周跌1.02%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶61.16美 元，周跌1.50%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶437.7元，周跌5.24%。国际能源署（IEA）在最新月报中表示，全球原油市场正面临比预期更大的供 应过剩，大量原油运往主要储存枢纽后，全球库存将很快上升。此外，OPEC报告数据显示，9月份OPEC原油总产量增加52.4万桶/日，达到2844 万桶/日。地缘局势方面，美国总统特朗普宣布，以色列与哈马斯已就加沙停火及人员释放达 ...

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley CEOs are slotted to attend Hong Kong’s annual summit for global finance leaders, just as US-China tensions reignite and a slew of credit losses weigh on global banks https://t.co/oFJkXVLqaW ...

摩根士丹利最新研究指出，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数三者出现极端"共振"时，往往预示美元强势周期即将反转。 10月20日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称，当标普500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率出现极端"共振"时，美元在未来6个 月内往往呈现可预测的走势模式。 该行策略师Molly Nickolin等指出，通过分析过去25年中，标普500指数、10年期美债收益率和美元指数三者同时发生极端波动（超过1.25个标准 差）的交易日，发现两个明确指向美元在未来六个月内走弱的强力信号。 该行称，历史数据表明，在"金发姑娘"情景(股市大涨超过1.25个标准差、美元和美债收益率同时下跌超过1.25个标准差)，以及"全面上涨"情景 （标普500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率三者同时上涨超过1.25个标准差）出现后，做空美元回报率明显。 大摩强调，在"金发姑娘"场景下，英镑表现最佳可能反映软着陆预期；而"全面上涨"情景后澳元领涨，则可能暗示美国例外论消退、全球经济追 赶的过程。 值得注意的是，2025年已出现多次符合这些信号的交易日，占历史总数的约7%，显示当前市场波动性处于历史高位。 "金发姑娘" ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US-China relationship** and its implications for **global macroeconomic conditions** and **investment strategies**. Core Insights and Arguments - **Dynamic Trade Relationship**: The US and China are engaged in a tactical contest for economic advantage, characterized by rolling negotiations and truces rather than a definitive trade peace or economic decoupling [2][3][10]. - **Strategic Interdependencies**: Key sectors such as **rare earths** and **semiconductors** remain critical, with both nations calibrating their policies to maintain economic ties while exerting leverage [2][3]. - **US Industrial Policy**: The US is ramping up its industrial policy, particularly in sectors like **AI** and **semiconductors**, with significant capital expenditure (capex) incentives from recent tax legislation. This includes a projected **$2.9 trillion** in data center financing needs over the next three years [4][9]. - **Tariff Levels**: Effective US tariff levels are currently **4-5 times higher** than at the beginning of the year, indicating ongoing trade-related pressures on corporate decision-making [9]. - **Economic Growth Risks**: The US government shutdown adds uncertainty to economic forecasts, with predictions suggesting it may extend into November, complicating growth prospects [9]. Additional Important Insights - **Mixed Economic Signals**: Economic data presents a mixed picture, with the potential for a near-term correction in equities due to growth concerns, while large-cap US companies may benefit from favorable policy choices [9][10]. - **China's Economic Indicators**: Expectations for China's 3Q real GDP growth are projected to slow to **4.6%**, down from **5.2%** in 2Q, with industrial production growth remaining flat at **5.2%** [14]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The evolving US-China relationship and the focus on domestic investment in critical sectors present opportunities for credit investors, particularly in AI and technology-related fields [8][9]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, highlighting the complexities of the US-China relationship and its broader implications for investment strategies and economic forecasts.

【 摘要 】中金公司李求索表示，美国宣布对中国加征额外关税等举措短期内扰动全球资产，但 中国资产重估的中期趋势未被影响。国海富兰克林基金四季度投资策略称，两类资产值得关注： 高股息蓝筹股，高景气成长股。 一、焦点锐评 1．9月"剪刀差"收敛，信贷小幅回落 10月15日，央行公布的数据显示，9月M2同比增长8.4%，较8月回落0.4个百分点；M1同比增长 7.2%，较8月提升1.2个百分点，M1与M2增速差进一步收窄至1.2%，延续了今年以来的收窄趋 势。9月新增人民币贷款1.29万亿元，低于市场预期1.46万亿元，较去年同期少增约3000亿元。 【解读】广发证券认为，今年以来M1、M2"剪刀差"明显收敛，反映出企业生产经营活跃度提 升、个人投资消费需求回暖等积极信号。瑞信证券认为，考虑到年初至今的信贷增速（尤其是人 民币贷款增长不及预期），当下对2025年末信贷同比增长8.6%的基准预测面临小幅下行风险，增 速可能放缓至8.4-8.5%。 二、权益市场 1.中信证券：中国传统制造业迎来全球定价权提升契机 中信证券裘翔等称，全球资本开支结构的分化以及中国传统制造业资本开支放缓为此类行业向全 球定价权转化创造条件 ...

Core Insights - The global oil market may have been misled by "fake data" for years, with Morgan Stanley's latest report revealing significant discrepancies in OPEC's production estimates, suggesting that actual idle capacity is much lower than perceived and that strong demand is quietly reshaping future oil prices [1][4]. Group 1: OPEC Production Estimates - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that the announced OPEC production increases may be more about catching up to existing production rather than genuinely increasing supply [4][12]. - The report highlights a record divergence in OPEC production estimates among data providers, with discrepancies reaching up to 2.5 million barrels per day [6][9]. - The actual idle capacity of OPEC is estimated to be around 2.9 million barrels per day, significantly lower than historical averages [15]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - If OPEC's production is indeed underestimated, it implies that global oil demand and its growth may also be systematically underestimated [4][16]. - The report suggests that a significant portion of the oil that is not accounted for in observable inventories has likely been consumed, rather than stored [16][17]. - The discrepancy in demand estimates among data providers indicates that there may be a 1% demand "omission," particularly in regions with limited reporting [17][21]. Group 3: Price Forecasts and Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its Brent price forecasts downward for the first half of 2026, with expectations of a price recovery to $65 per barrel by the second half of 2027 [5][24]. - The short-term outlook suggests significant oversupply, with estimates of a surplus of 2-3 million barrels per day in late 2025 and early 2026 [24][25]. - The medium-term outlook indicates that the oil market may rebalance by the second half of 2027, driven by stronger demand trends and limited supply growth [24][25].