编者按：摩根士丹利 格林尼治标准时间 7 月 14 日 发布研究报告《 每周世界观：经济与市场 》，重点阐释策略师对经济展 望与美国股市观点之间的差异。报告提到，预计美国经济在下半年会放缓，但 对标准普尔 500 指数一年后的目标点位为 6500 点，这一目标是基于每股收益约增长 10%以及 21.5 倍的市盈率得出的，这其中的明显差异，一是因为大摩预计美股市 场 今年夏末波动性将会加大；二是因为美国 股市对全球其他地区的敞口远大于整体经济。大摩预计美元还将继续跌10%， 而 这种剧烈波动意味着经济与市场之间的差距会变得更大。 我们明白并非所有人都像我们一样对经济学感兴趣，但投资者之所以关注经济，是因为经济有助于推动市场。 但至关重要的是要记住，经济并非市场，股市也并非经济。这一事实在当下尤为正确，而且当前的政策可能会放大这种差 异。 摩根士丹利的股票策略团队对标准普尔 500 指数一年后的目标点位为 6500 点，这一目标是基于每股收益接近 300 美元（约 增长 10%）以及 21.5 倍的市盈率得出的 。 例如，政策不仅会对不同企业产生不同影响，还会对国内生产总值产生重大影响。同样，美元的波动对某些公司 ...

美国劳工部15日发布的数据显示，美国6月消费者物价指数（CPI）环比增长0.3%，同比增长2.7%，与 市场预期相符。核心CPI（不包括食品和能源价格）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.9%，略低于市场预期的 3%水平，但已连续四个月保持在2.8%以上。 数据显示通胀水平仍然高企，足以让美联储维持现状，不会很快降息。数据发布后美元指数、美国国债 收益率上涨。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价15日下跌28.6美元，收于每盎司3330.5美 元，跌幅为0.85%。 因投资者获利回吐，以及美元指数强劲上涨，金价当天下跌。 美国银行的一项基金经理调查显示，做空美元是目前最拥挤的交易。当太多交易员站在船的一侧时，这 种交易可能已经走到尽头了。因此美元指数可能已经触底。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 高盛重申，年底金价将达到每盎司3700美元，2026年中期将进一步升至每盎司4000美元。 瑞士银行巨头瑞银认为，最近白宫升级关税是一种谈判策略，数据最终会回落。 技术层面，黄金期货多头近期仍具有全 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a forecast for various asset classes, indicating a bearish outlook for equities and a mixed outlook for fixed income and commodities [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant expected returns and volatility across different asset classes for Q2 2026, with equities showing a range of potential returns from -20.7% to 24.4% depending on market conditions [2]. - The report notes that the S&P 500 is forecasted to have a base case return of 4.7% with a volatility of 19% [2]. - Commodities, particularly Brent and Copper, are expected to have substantial volatility, with Brent showing a potential return range from -23.6% to 83.4% [2]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500: Bear case -20.7%, Base case 4.7%, Bull case 15.9% [2] - MSCI Europe: Bear case -22.3%, Base case 7.3%, Bull case 24.4% [2] - Topix: Bear case -23.3%, Base case 5.0%, Bull case 17.3% [2] - MSCI EM: Bear case -26.7%, Base case 0.1%, Bull case 13.1% [2] Fixed Income - UST 10yr: Bear case 7.6%, Base case 12.1%, Bull case 17.2% [2] - US IG: Bear case -2.9%, Base case -0.1%, Bull case 1.2% [2] - US HY: Bear case -4.3%, Base case 0.1%, Bull case 2.1% [2] Commodities - Brent: Bear case -23.6%, Base case -8.3%, Bull case 83.4% [2] - Copper: Bear case -21.6%, Base case -4.3%, Bull case 14.8% [2] - Gold: Bear case -20.6%, Base case -6.5%, Bull case 12.3% [2] Currency - JPY/USD: Bear case 14.9%, Base case 7.6%, Bull case -2.5% [2] - EUR/USD: Bear case -5.4%, Base case 3.9%, Bull case 8.2% [2] - GBP/USD: Bear case -1.3%, Base case 6.0%, Bull case 10.4% [2]

M Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts July 14, 2025 09:35 PM GMT Extel Survey: If you've found our research useful, we'd appreciate your support for the Morgan Stanley Cross-Asset Strategy team and our colleagues in the 2025 Extel Global Fixed Income Survey, especially in USA/EMEA/Asia Cross-Asset Strategy categories. Next 12 Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: In the US, the labor market is holding up, but cooling gradually. Although the recent US inflation data did not sho ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - Asia's international investment position has doubled to US$46 trillion over the last 13 years, with a significant portion allocated to US assets [5][8]. - The report discusses the ongoing debate regarding whether Asian investors should diversify their holdings away from the US, especially in light of recent USD depreciation [5][6]. - Concerns about the US macroeconomic outlook, including high fiscal and current account deficits, have led to increased discussions among investors about rebalancing their portfolios [5][6][7]. Summary by Sections Current Investment Position - Asia's gross international investment position (GIIP) has reached US$46 trillion as of Q1 2025, with US assets accounting for 41% of Asia's holdings [5][8]. - The securities portfolio within Asia's GIIP is valued at US$21 trillion, with US holdings slightly increasing to US$8.6 trillion in Q1 2025 [8][9]. Diversification Decisions - Asian investors face three key decisions: whether to diversify current US asset holdings, how much to allocate to the US from their annual current account surplus, and whether to hedge their positions in US assets [8][37]. - The share of US assets in Asia's securities portfolio has slightly declined from 41.5% in Q4 2024 to 40.8% in Q1 2025, indicating a potential shift in investment strategy [37][40]. Hedging Strategies - There has been a rise in demand for hedging among Asian investors, which has contributed to the strength of Asian currencies against the USD [54][55]. - Taiwanese life insurance companies have been observed to reduce their FX hedge ratios until Q1 2025, but there are indications of increased hedging activity in Q2 2025 [54][55].

花旗集团收涨3.7%，创2008年美国次贷危机以来收盘新高。 在费城银行指数的成分股里，花旗是唯一收涨的华尔街大行，摩根大通跌0.74%、高盛跌1.51%、摩根 士丹利跌1.65%、美国银行跌1.95%、富国银行跌5.48% ...

Ernest HoffmanErnest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX. He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in ...

Group 1 - The Chinese capital market is experiencing a new pattern of deep interaction with foreign institutions, enhancing the convenience for global investors to participate in China's innovative development opportunities [1] - International capital's enthusiasm for allocating assets in China is increasing, with many foreign institutions expressing optimism about the Chinese market's prospects [1][2] - A significant shift has occurred in the priorities of sovereign wealth funds, with 59% of respondents identifying China as a high or medium priority market, indicating a separate allocation to China from broader emerging markets [2] Group 2 - The quality of listed companies in China is improving, providing a solid foundation for foreign institutions' interest, with 60% of companies reporting positive revenue growth in 2024 [3] - Foreign institutions are increasingly focusing on technology innovation, with digital technology and software being the most attractive investment areas, followed by advanced manufacturing and clean energy [5] - The bond market is also attracting international capital, with expectations that capital may flow from the US financial markets to other fixed-income markets, benefiting European, Japanese, and Chinese bonds [5] Group 3 - Foreign institutions are accelerating their investment in the Chinese market, with over 30 new funds launched by firms such as Morgan Asset Management and Fidelity [6] - Several foreign institutions are demonstrating long-term commitment to the Chinese market through capital increases, such as Morgan Stanley Fund's registered capital rising from 600 million to 950 million yuan, a growth of over 58% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current conservative market expectations for Wall Street earnings may create favorable conditions for the continued strong performance of bank stocks, as evidenced by significant gains in the banking sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The KBW Bank Index, which includes 24 institutions such as JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, has risen approximately 37% since its low in April, nearing historical highs, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indices [1]. - Financial stocks are expected to contribute 18.6% to the overall earnings of the S&P 500, despite their current weight in the index being only 13.7%, indicating a significant expectation gap [1]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations - Analysts predict that the S&P 500 financial stock index will see a year-over-year earnings decline of about 1% in the second quarter, but cautious investor sentiment suggests potential upside if actual profits exceed expectations [1]. - Major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, are set to report earnings this week, with expectations of improved performance due to a favorable regulatory environment [1]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Capital Management - The completion of stress tests by the Federal Reserve is expected to lead banks to update their capital management plans, potentially increasing stock buybacks, while the potential weakening of Basel III capital rules may further enhance capital flexibility [2]. - The anticipated growth in trading revenue, following the announcement of tariff policies, is also boosting market confidence [2]. Group 4: Risks and Opportunities - The banking sector faces challenges such as the high forward P/E ratio of approximately 17 for the S&P 500 financial stock index, which exceeds the 10-year average of 14 [2]. - Factors like trade wars, uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, and potential fluctuations in consumer credit quality pose risks to bank profitability [3]. - However, analysts believe that regulatory easing and profit growth could drive the sector higher, with some suggesting that current stock prices do not fully reflect the potential for improvement in the industry fundamentals [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Debt sustainability analysis often overlooks critical contexts such as monetary system structure, non-sovereign alternatives, and investor psychology, leading to a narrow understanding of the issue [9][12][15] - Investors, rather than models, determine debt sustainability through a multi-factor equation that includes more variables than just interest rates and growth [9][37] - The report highlights that government debt does not exist in isolation but within a complex landscape of alternative investments, which influences perceptions of sustainability [15][31] Summary by Sections Debt Sustainability Analysis - The analysis of debt sustainability is often simplified to one or two dimensions, neglecting the multi-dimensional nature of the investment landscape [9][12] - Concerns about US debt sustainability have been ongoing for over a decade, with significant events like the Moody's downgrade and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act reigniting discussions [11][12] Market Reactions - Market pricing of government bond yields is influenced by various risks, making it challenging to isolate the impact of debt sustainability concerns [14][19] - The report notes that yields on 30-year government bonds in countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios do not necessarily rise with increasing debt levels, indicating a complex relationship [14][16] Global Context - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding debt sustainability within the broader context of global investments, particularly the differences between hard-currency and local-currency debt [26][28] - Emerging market local-currency bonds have proliferated since the pandemic, potentially reducing investor concerns about debt sustainability risks [28] Investor Behavior - Investors play a crucial role in assessing debt sustainability, often applying a broader perspective than traditional models, which can lead to different conclusions about risk [19][37] - The report suggests that academic approaches to linking debt levels with bond yields may miss important contextual factors, such as investor expectations and central bank responses [39][40]