Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, suggesting that it has been in a "rolling recession" for the past three years, but is now entering a new bull market phase, as indicated by recent market performance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley claims that the significant market sell-off in April marked the end of the bear market, and the current market is experiencing a healthy gradual rise rather than a sharp increase [1]. - The S&P 500 index has shown a V-shaped recovery, rising 30% since its April low, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 9% [1]. - Wilson predicts that the S&P 500 could reach 7,200 points by mid-2026, driven by strong earnings, AI applications, a weaker dollar, tax cuts, pent-up demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Wilson advises investors to buy on dips, emphasizing that the current bull market is still in its early stages [3]. - Despite the cautious approach of institutional investors during market downturns, retail investors continue to buy stocks, contributing to the market's rapid recovery [5]. - The article highlights the risks associated with the buy-the-dip strategy, as investors may end up buying at unfavorable prices if the market continues to decline [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent CPI data has positively influenced the US stock market, leading to significant gains in major indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs [1]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.13% to 6445.76 points, the Nasdaq composite increased by 1.39% to 21681.9 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 1.1% to 44458.61 points [1]. - The Russell 2000 index, which is seen as a beneficiary of interest rate cuts, surged nearly 3% [3]. Sector Highlights - Technology stocks rebounded, with notable performances from major companies: Apple up 1.09%, Microsoft up 1.43%, Amazon up 0.08%, Nvidia up 0.6%, Google-A up 1.16%, Tesla up 0.53%, and Meta up 3.15% [7]. - Intel experienced a significant increase of 5.62%, with a two-day gain of 11% following a shift in Trump's stance [8]. - Other companies such as Electronic Arts, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley also reached historical highs [9]. International Market - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.49%, with Alibaba up 3.19%, JD.com up 3.01%, Baidu up 2.14%, and Pinduoduo up 3% [10]. - However, some Chinese companies faced declines, such as NIO down 8.96% and XPeng down 6.08% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector experienced a rise in stock prices, driven by the announcement of the July CPI data, which indicated a stable inflation rate, leading to increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [1] Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - Citigroup (C.US) shares increased by over 3% [1] - Goldman Sachs (GS.US) shares rose by more than 3.7% [1] - JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) shares gained over 1.5% [1] - Morgan Stanley (MS.US) shares climbed more than 2.5% [1] - Bank of America (BAC.US) shares increased by over 2.7% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained largely unchanged [1] - Following the CPI announcement, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September rose to 90.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector experienced a rise on Tuesday, with significant gains in major banks following the release of July's CPI data, which remained stable, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 90.1% [1] Group 1: Bank Performance - Citigroup (C.US) rose over 3% [1] - Goldman Sachs (GS.US) increased by more than 3.7% [1] - JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) saw an increase of over 1.5% [1] - Morgan Stanley (MS.US) gained more than 2.5% [1] - Bank of America (BAC.US) rose over 2.7% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable [1] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increased to 90.1% following the CPI data release [1]

Let's begin with this morning CPI data. Joining us this morning, Morgan Stanley, wealth management, chief economic strategist and global head of thematic and macro investing, Ellen Zener is here post9. E, it's great to have you back.>> We've been talking all morning long about the print red versus expectations versus the direction of travel and whether the latter is a little more worrisome. >> Uh, I don't think either is worrisome. I mean, in my view.Uh and look, it's been very difficult for the Fed to uh s ...

Core Insights - The OCIO (Outsourced Chief Investment Officer) model has seen significant growth, with assets under management (AUM) increasing over 2.6 times in the past decade, indicating a strong demand for outsourced investment management solutions [3][8][10] - The market is dominated by a few key players, with the top five institutions controlling 67% of the market share, particularly following the acquisition of Vanguard by Mercer, which has led to a rapid increase in Mercer’s AUM market share to over 30% [3][10] - The client base for OCIO services is diversifying, with a notable increase in the share of non-pension clients such as endowment funds, charitable foundations, and private wealth, which are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 10% over the next five years [3][17] OCIO Business Overview - OCIO services encompass a comprehensive range of functions including asset allocation, manager selection, portfolio decision execution, and risk management, tailored to meet the needs of institutional investors and high-net-worth families [7][10] - The OCIO model addresses the gap between asset owners' internal capabilities and their performance expectations, providing a systematic approach to enhance governance and efficiency [7][10] Market Dynamics - The OCIO market is primarily driven by corporate pension plans, which accounted for 61% of the market in 2023, but there is a growing trend towards non-pension clients, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][17] - The overall AUM in the OCIO sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.9%-8%, with increasing penetration among non-traditional institutional clients [17] Competitive Landscape - Major players like JP Morgan, Mercer, BlackRock, and Goldman Sachs are adopting distinct strategies to capture market share, with varying focuses on technology, ESG integration, and client customization [3][10][38] - The acquisition of Vanguard by Mercer is a significant event in the industry, enhancing Mercer’s capabilities in alternative asset management and solidifying its position as the largest OCIO service provider globally [48][51] Client Segmentation - Different client types, including pension funds, foundations, family offices, and sovereign wealth funds, have unique investment needs and risk profiles, leading to tailored OCIO service models [12][17] - Non-profit organizations and endowment funds are increasingly recognized as critical growth drivers for OCIO services, with a high percentage of providers considering them essential for future growth [26][17] Future Opportunities - The OCIO sector is expected to see growth opportunities in Southeast Asian sovereign funds and healthcare systems, as well as through the optimization of asset allocation models [3][10] - The demand for alternative assets and complex investment strategies is rising, necessitating OCIO providers to enhance their capabilities in these areas [13][17]

Core Insights - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are leading investment banking firms, with JPMorgan ranking 1 for global IB fees and a significant market share of 8.9% [1][9] - The investment banking sector has a robust long-term outlook, but near-term momentum is uncertain due to macroeconomic factors [2][4] Group 1: JPMorgan's Performance - JPMorgan's total IB fees increased by 36% to $8.91 billion in 2024, recovering from declines in the previous two years [2] - In the first half of 2025, JPMorgan's IB fees rose 10% year-over-year to $4.68 billion, driven by higher advisory fees and underwriting income [3] - The company benefits from heightened market volatility, with trading revenues increasing significantly in 2024 and the first half of 2025 [5] Group 2: Morgan Stanley's Performance - Morgan Stanley's IB revenues surged 36% to $6.71 billion in the previous year, but only increased by 1% this year [7][8] - The firm is optimistic about its IB business performance, supported by a stable M&A pipeline [8] - Morgan Stanley's asset and wealth management operations contributed over 55% to total net revenues in 2024, up from 26% in 2010 [11] Group 3: Financial Comparisons - Year-to-date, JPMorgan shares have gained 20.8%, while Morgan Stanley shares have increased by 14.4% [12] - JPMorgan trades at a lower P/E of 14.52X compared to Morgan Stanley's 15.56X, indicating it is less expensive [15] - JPMorgan's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16.93%, higher than Morgan Stanley's 15.20% [16] Group 4: Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for JPMorgan's 2025 revenues suggests a slight decline, while a 3.4% growth is expected for 2026 [18] - In contrast, Morgan Stanley's revenue estimates indicate an 8.3% increase for 2025 and a 4.2% increase for 2026 [21] - Earnings estimates for Morgan Stanley show a projected increase of 10.9% for 2025 and 8% for 2026 [21] Group 5: Investment Outlook - JPMorgan's diversified revenue streams and strong IB performance position it favorably compared to Morgan Stanley [22] - The company's projected net interest income for 2025 is approximately $95.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of over 3% [23] - JPMorgan is rated as a strong buy, while Morgan Stanley holds a hold rating [23]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down before the market opens, with Dow futures down 0.05%, S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.06% [1] - The German DAX index is down 0.49%, while the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.07%, and the French CAC40 is up 0.10% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is down 0.69% at $63.52 per barrel, and Brent crude oil is down 0.51% at $66.29 per barrel [3][4] Economic Data and Inflation - The US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set to be released, with expectations of a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, up from 2.7% in June [4][5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise to 3.0% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflation pressures [4][5] Corporate Earnings and Stock Buybacks - US companies are projected to repurchase over $1.1 trillion in stock this year, with $983.6 billion already announced [6] - Major companies leading the buyback trend include Apple, Alphabet, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley [6] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points this year, with some investors betting on a 50 basis point cut in September [5] - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is intensifying, with candidates including Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, and Lori Logan [7] Trade Policies and Tariffs - Goldman Sachs warns that 70% of the costs from tariffs imposed by President Trump are being passed on to US consumers, with the burden expected to increase [7] - The US and China have agreed to pause the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, while retaining 10% tariffs on certain goods [8] Company-Specific News - Sea Ltd reported Q2 revenue of $5.26 billion, a 38.2% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in e-commerce and digital financial services [9] - Circle's Q2 revenue increased by 53% to $658 million, with a net loss of $482 million primarily due to IPO-related expenses [10] - Smithfield Foods reported a Q2 sales increase of 11% to $3.79 billion, driven by strong demand for packaged meat products [11] - Tencent Music's Q2 revenue grew by 17.9% to 8.44 billion yuan, with online music service revenue increasing by 26.4% [12] - Pony.ai's Q2 revenue surged by 75.9% to 215 million USD, with a significant increase in Robotaxi passenger fare income [13] - Yalla Technology's Q2 revenue was $84.6 million, slightly below expectations, with a 7% decline in paid user numbers [14] Regulatory and Legal Developments - Elon Musk has criticized Apple for allegedly favoring OpenAI in the App Store, indicating potential legal action [15] - President Trump is considering allowing Nvidia and AMD to export downgraded AI chips to China, with a 15% revenue share for the US government [16]

智通财经APP获悉，经济学家预计最新消费者价格数据将显示通胀小幅上升，但华尔街专业人士并不担 心这会破坏近期股市的涨势。 泰勒写道，回调的主要风险是季节性的，因为标普500指数在过去25年中9月份平均下跌1.5%——但随 后在第四季度上涨4%。 根据彭博社对经济学家的调查中值预测，剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本的核心CPI预计7月份将比6月 份上升0.3%。 美国总统特朗普全面加征全球关税的通胀影响预计将开始体现在最新 CPI 数据中，该数据将于周二开 盘前公布。尽管如此，包括摩根大通和摩根士丹利在内的华尔街投行预计，投资者将对这些担忧置之不 理，并通过关注强劲的企业盈利和降息来保持股价飙升。 摩根大通全球市场情报主管安德鲁·泰勒周一在给客户的一份报告中写道，宏观经济数据仍然"支持看涨 的理由，盈利可能会保持其积极趋势"，并补充说美联储正朝着降息的方向发展。 泰勒认为，任何潜在的通胀上升都可能是暂时的，而且峰值可能会低于预期。事实上，他的团队在周二 CPI数据公布后，将标普500指数进一步上涨的几率定为70%，预测如果数据符合预期或低于预期，该指 数可能上涨2%。 | Core MoM change in CP ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley successfully issued 2 billion yuan Panda bonds in the Chinese interbank market, marking the first issuance by a US-based company, which enhances the structure of Panda bond issuers and promotes the high-quality development of the Panda bond market [1] Group 1: Panda Bond Market Overview - Panda bonds are RMB-denominated bonds issued by foreign institutions in the domestic market, serving as a significant channel for offshore RMB financing [1] - The issuance scale of Panda bonds in the interbank market reached 111.2 billion yuan this year, with foreign government agencies, international development institutions, and multinational corporations accounting for 50% of the issuance, an increase of 27 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [1] Group 2: Future Developments - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association plans to continue diversifying the types of foreign issuers under the guidance of the People's Bank of China, aiming to support the high-quality development and institutional opening of the bond market [1]