核心要点 1. 经历单周超万亿美元市值蒸发后，科技巨头股在周一盘前交易中整体持稳，开启新的交易周。 2. 盘前交易早盘，甲骨文与微软小幅走高，元宇宙、字母表、亚马逊和英伟达则微幅下跌。 3. 人工智能热潮下，各大企业公布 2026 年巨额资本支出计划，引发市场担忧。 经历单周超万亿美元市值蒸发的重挫后，科技巨头股在周一的盘前交易中表现持稳。 上周，科技巨头发布财报时纷纷上调资本支出预期，加码人工智能领域布局，这一趋势也让市场情绪愈 发紧张。 亚马逊、字母表、微软和元宇宙四家企业披露，仅去年四季度，其资本支出合计就达约 1200 亿美元； 而 2026 年这一数字或将逼近 7000 亿美元，超过阿联酋、新加坡、以色列等国的国内生产总值。 德意志银行全球宏观研究主管吉姆・里德在周一的报告中写道，上周是 "华丽七巨头" 自去年 4 月以来 表现最差的一周 —— 彼时美国加征关税引发市场危机，该板块股价暴跌 4.66%。 里德指出，上周收盘时市场已显现复苏迹象，尽管亚马逊股价大跌 5.55%，但 "华丽七巨头" 整体仍在 周五上涨 0.45%。 美国银行证券研究分析师贾斯汀・波斯特在周一的报告中表示，宏观环境承压背景 ...

The Alger Concentrated Equity ETF (CNEQ) returned more than 32% in 2025, beating the S&P 500 by over 14 percentage points as the fund's focused portfolio capitalized on a shifting market environment, according to ETF Database. The fund's outperformance comes as investors debate whether market leadership will broaden beyond mega-cap technology names. While passive index funds must hold all constituents regardless of fundamentals, CNEQ's structure enables its portfolio manager to concentrate capital in compan ...

责任编辑：陈钰嘉 梅利乌斯研究公司将微软的股票评级下调至"持有"，并称"萨提亚错失了人工智能的叙事主导权"。 该券商指出，微软365版Copilot的推进速度过慢，其现行的"先按席位收费"模式易受智能代理技术的冲 击。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 梅利乌斯研究公司表示："我们愈发认为，'为人工智能额外付费'的模式难以为继——Copilot最终需免 费附赠，这将推高公司的长期成本。" 梅利乌斯研究公司将微软的股票评级下调至"持有"，并称"萨提亚错失了人工智能的叙事主导权"。 该券商指出，微软365版Copilot的推进速度过慢，其现行的"先按席位收费"模式易受智能代理技术的冲 击。 梅利乌斯研究公司表示："我们愈发认为，'为人工智能额外付费'的模式难以为继——Copilot最终需免 费附赠，这将推高公司的长期成本。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The current period is an exciting time for tech analysts, particularly in the context of the ongoing AI revolution, which presents numerous opportunities for investment in tech stocks [1]. Group 1: Analyst Perspective - The analysis focuses on tech stocks that are personally interesting for portfolio addition, indicating a hands-on approach to investment [1]. - The writing is tailored for both beginners and advanced readers, aiming to provide a clear and well-reasoned perspective on the tech sector [1]. Group 2: Disclosure Information - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in shares of IBM, QCOM, DELL, and MSFT, either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [2]. - The article reflects the analyst's personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [2].

S&P futures are unchanged, erasing all overnight losses, extending last week’s choppy price action focused on AI repercussions; Nasdaq 100 futures underperform slightly ahead of an important week that has both the January jobs and CPI report on deck (at least the firehose of earnings is slowing down). As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are unchanged, and Nasdaq futures dip 0.2% with tech the biggest laggard as Semis come back under pressure and Mag7 names are all weaker.  The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose thre ...

智东西2月9日消息，据等多家外媒报道，当前美国科技巨头们正深陷AI基建投资"狂潮"，一年的总资本投入规模甚至超过欧洲单一发达国家全年GDP。 2026年，Meta、亚马逊、微软、谷歌四家美国科技巨头计划在AI基础设施建设方面支出的资本或超过6000亿美元（约合人民币41567亿元），相比去年暴 涨了70%以上，预测数据在6300亿美元到6700亿美元之间浮动。 ▲2026年美国四大科技巨头资本支出情况，2025年、2026年资本支出增幅极为明显 什么概念？这一数额大约相当于瑞典（6620亿美元）、以色列（6100亿美元）这些国家一年的GDP。 按照华尔街日报6700亿美元的预测数据，这一总支出占美国GDP的比例约为2.1%，仅次于美国1803年购买路易斯安那州（占GPD 3%）。相比之下，阿波 罗登月计划占GDP的比例只有0.2%，登月在AI基建投资面前已经沦为"计量单位"。 ▲项目支出占GDP的比重，图源：华尔街日报 不过相比这四大美国科技巨头在AI基建方面的加码投入，苹果公司则显得十分"特别"，其为最近一个季度美国科技大厂中唯一一家资本支出同比减少的公 司。 在AI基建狂潮中，各大厂商策略不尽相同，在多家 ...

摩根士丹利策略师表示，由于人工智能的热潮支撑了强劲的销售前景，美国科技股还有进一步上涨的空 间。由Michael Wilson领导的团队表示，大型科技股的营收增长预期已达到"数十年来的最高水平"，而 近期市场波动后，其估值有所下降。与此同时，软件股的暴跌也为微软(MSFT.US)和财捷(INTU.US)等 一些股票创造了"极具吸引力的买入机会"。 Wilson在一份报告中写道："像上周那样的时期在重大投资周期中并不罕见。尽管如此，人工智能赋能 者行业的基本面依然强劲，我们认为人工智能采用者市场的价值仍然被低估了。" Wilson的观点或许能让那些开始质疑人工智能领域巨额投资回报的投资者感到安心。上周，纳斯达克 100指数遭遇了自去年12月以来最大的单周跌幅，那些被认为可能受到人工智能冲击的股票在Anthropic 新工具发布后纷纷下跌。 "七大科技巨头"指数目前的市盈率约为29倍，略低于五年平均水平。上周五有一些逢低买入者入场，但 市场走势表明这种情况可能只是暂时的，纳斯达克100指数期货周一下跌0.7%。 Wilson团队的分析显示，投资者尚未以更具结构性的方式加强对资本支出的约束。这位策略师表示，资 本支 ...

Starting with an Ives favorite in Palantir (PLTR). Dubbed as the “Messi of AI” by Ives, Palantir is a software company specializing in data integration, analytics, and AI-driven decision platforms for governments and enterprises worldwide. Palantir builds mission-critical software platforms that unify disparate data sources and apply analytics/AI to produce insights and operational decisions.Ives's bullishness about the software sector has been longstanding. Yet, it is not for all the names. Which ones, the ...

墙的一侧是每秒万亿次的浮点运算渴求；另一侧，则是平均电网年龄超 40 年、变压器短缺率高达 30%、扩建周期长达 5-10 年的基建泥潭。 也因此，海豚君对于北美缺电重点理解： 1）缺电背后是是一个中短期的供需差，还是一个长期的结构性问题？ 2） 缺电 如何解决，解决的背后对应的怎样的细分赛道的投资机会？ 本篇重点探讨第一个问题，重点理解一个高度成熟的国家，如何混到无电可用的。 | 发布日期 | 政策文件 | 发布主体和类型 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年1月29日 | 《Unleashing American 总统办公室文件 | | 发布包括鼓励美国能源勘探和生产在内的 8 项政 | | | Energy » (Executive | | 策:立即审查所有可能加重国内能源资源开发负担 | | | Order 14154) | | 的机构行动;撤销和修订部分总统行动与监管行 | | | | | 动:通过高效审批释放能源主导地位:优先保障环 | | | | | 境分析的准确性;终止"绿色新政";保护美国国 | | | | | 家安全:恢复美国矿产主导地位等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that high uncertainty has significantly impacted software valuation multiples, which have declined by approximately 33% since October 2025 [2] Group 1: Software Valuation - The average software valuation multiple has returned to around 4.4 times enterprise value/sales, reflecting levels seen during previous periods of high uncertainty in the public cloud sector [3] - Investors are underestimating the ability of existing vendors to benefit from AI adoption [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that pessimistic views on generative AI have led to a lack of trust in the ability of existing software vendors to participate in this innovation cycle [4] - Morgan Stanley identifies Microsoft, ServiceNow, Salesforce, Atlassian, Snowflake, Cloudflare, Shopify, and Palo Alto Networks as attractive investment opportunities due to their strong product cycles, improved financial metrics, and discounted valuations [4] - Microsoft is noted as a key player in significant innovation cycles, while the valuation of ServiceNow is described as "very attractive" [4] - Salesforce's AI-related annual recurring revenue has increased by 114% year-over-year [4] - Shopify is viewed as highly capable of capturing a larger share of the expanding online commerce market [4] Group 3: Long-term Opportunities - Generative AI represents a significant long-term opportunity, with an estimated potential to add approximately $400 billion to the broader enterprise software total addressable market by 2028 [5] - The key issue is not whether software will ultimately monetize in this innovation cycle, but rather which companies will participate [6]